Not Larry Sabato

Chap's July 4th

The king of July 4th announces his public schedule.

Senator Brian Moran

I've started looking into the likely State Senate lines for the 2011 election following redistricting, and one thing is jumping out at me- Brian Moran appears headed to the Virginia Senate if he wants to run.  Here's why:

The #1 open seat Democrats must defend is the GOP leaning area currently represented by Chuck Colgan in Prince William County.  Republicans drew his district to be dominated by Northern Prince William because of the GOP lean of that area, so they could pick up the seat if he retired in 2003 or 2007.  Chuck decided not to retire- and was able to retain this seat, but it would be a very difficult hold for Democrats in an open seat.  Southern Prince William is much more Democratic so Democrats will move the Colgan seat much further south in Prince William to make the open seat winnable for them. 

Currently Toddy Puller's district runs from Mt. Vernon into Southern Prince William, so that move will mean she must pick up a lot of new voters in other areas.  But with Colgan's seat blocking her to the south, and the Potomac River on her eastern boundary, Toddy can only go west or north.  Going west takes her back into Lee District which was what her Senate district looked like in the 1990's.   The problem with that is, George Barker currently has Lee, and lost his home area of Springfield District in 2007 when he narrowly beat Jay O'Brien.  Without Lee, Barker would certainly lose re-election.  That means Toddy will need to pick up a lot of population to her north, which carries her into the eastern part of the City of Alexandria in Old Town.

The new 30th District would need to then be centered around the west end of Alexandria and eastern Fairfax County in the Bailey's Crossroads area.  It would basically be made up of what is now the 46th Delegate seat, and the 38th Delegate seat with a few other precincts thrown in to make the population work.  That seat is very strong for Brian, and it would be hard to imagine anyone stopping him from moving up to the Senate with those lines.

I don't know what else he is doing, but it looks like Chuck Colgan's retirement in Prince William may be the driving force behind the return of Brian Moran to the General Assembly from Alexandria.  If he wants to run.

SHARON BULOVA PROPOSES ELIMINATING VIENNA AND HERNDON

Wow- this is one of the most boneheaded proposals of the year.  Fairfax County is floating the idea of becoming a City instead of a County.  Besides other problems, towns can only exist in counties- not in cities- so the Towns of Herndon, Vienna and Clifton, with their Mayors/Town Councils would be totally eliminated off the map by this proposal.

Sharon Bulova has got to go! 

UPDATE:  Chap is exactly right about this.

House of Delegates Preview- Part 2

11 Kerry/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb/Yes/Obama/Warner Districts
Currently held by 8 Democrats, 3 Republicans

Ratings for these 11 Seats:

8 Safe Democratic
1 Leans Democratic
2 Toss Up

This combination of seats provides Democrats with their best chances on picking up GOP held seats.  All of these districts have voted straight Democratic in statewide races since 2004- but they all voted for the marriage amendment in 2006.  This block of seats includes many of the majority-African American districts downstate, as well as three districts in Northern Virginia currently held by Republicans.

The 42nd race is a rematch from 2005 between Dave Albo and Greg Werkheiser.   Albo has great local ties here that he rode to a large Kaine/Albo vote in 2005 to cling to a small victory.  But his brand and reputation were seriously damaged by the 2007 Abuser Fee Debacle that he championed.  In the meantime, Greg has become a much better candidate, and seems to have a real vision for his campaign this time around.  This race is currently rated as a "Toss Up", but because of the district's Democratic performance in recent elections, I think Werkheiser has the inside rail going down the homestretch in this even race. 

The 52nd District is currently held by Jeff Frederick.  This district has very low turnout in off year elections- which benefits Republicans- and which Jeff rode to victory in 2003 and 2007.  His only win in a Governor's year came 51-49 in 2005 against a 70+ year old local Supervisor who was not in good enough health to aggressively campaign.  Now with Frederick's retirement, this seat is open at exactly the wrong time for Republicans.  Rafael Lopez is taking up the mantle for Republicans, but faces a real uphill battle in this district against Luke Torian because of the likely Democratic landslide up-ballot in this district.  For now, this district "Leans Democratic (Pickup)"  but if Lopez doesn't start raising a lot of money, this could move to a Likely Democratic pickup pretty easily.

The 86th District straddles the Fairfax/Loudoun County lines.  Incumbent Tom Rust was expected to cruise to five easy terms here when the district was drawn in 2001, but it has become much more Democratic in recent years.  Rust survived 53-47 against fairly weak opposition in 2007 and this district gets even bluer in higher turnout cycles like this one.  Combine that with a much stronger opponent- Loudoun County Supervisor Stevens Miller- and Rust is in for a real battle this year.  Like the 42nd district, this is currently rated a "Toss Up", but as long as Creigh holds his large Northern Virginia lead, he will likely score around 60%+ in this district, and those coattails should give Miller the inside rail heading towards the finish line.

(See Part 1 Here.  Part 3 coming soon!)

Tim Hugo Frantically Raises Money Against No One

From his fundraising email:

"As you may know, my opponent is prepared to fight until the end and has the ability to raise a lot of money. The Democratic Party is also investing an enormous amount of time and money on campaigns statewide. The Democrats have the advantage when it comes to fundraising, and I do not want to let that be the deciding factor in this race."

Actually Tim's opponent dropped out of the race two months ago, and has allowed her name to remain on the ballot this summer so Democrats will have time to look for a replacement for her.  It seems to me that Tim is a little better than saying someone who has basically dropped out is "fighting to the end" to raise some more cash.

Kaine Continues To Keep His Travel Secret

Before the out-of state event happens, Tim claims he can't announce it because of "security".  (Yet he announces multiple in-state events every week and that doesn't seem to endanger him).

After the out-of-state event happens, Kaine denies the press access to details of where it was, and how long he was out of state.

And while Tim Kaine is out of state, we don't have a Governor doing his job.

Pathetic.

What's With The WaPo and Blogger Bashing?

Congratulations to Nico, who was one of the panelists at our Governor debate in April.