On Saturday Virginia Republicans will be finally selecting their nominee for Lt. Governor from a field of 7 candidates:
Scott Lingamfelter- State Delegate from Prince William and Fauquier counties (2002-present)
Jeannemarie Davis- State Delegate from Fairfax county (1998-2004) and State Senator from Fairfax County (2004-2008)
Pete Snyder- CEO of Disrupter Capital
Corey Stewart- Occoquan District Supervisor in Prince William County (2004-2006) and Chairman of Prince William Board of Supervisors (2006-present)
Steve Martin- State Delegate from Chesterfield County (1986-1997) and State Senator from Chesterfield County (1997-present)
Susan Stimpson- Falmouth District Supervisor in Stafford County (2009-present)
E.W. Jackson- Pastor from the Hampton Roads area
The rules are very important here. Assuming the Delegates approve the RPV plan, the bottom two candidates will be eliminated after the first ballot. Then two more will be eliminated after the second ballot- leaving only three candidates standing. A third ballot will eliminate one more candidate, leaving the final two for runoff to decide the winner on the fourth ballot. The only way to end this process early is a candidate getting 50% of the vote on a ballot.
It's hard to imagine how Jeannemarie Davis can win this. She will bring a good vote from Northern Virginia with her, but her record on guns is a big problem with many convention delegates. If she were to survive into the final three, it's hard to see any coalition that takes her to 50%. Her endorsement though could be very important- and Jeannemarie has told people that she will be supporting Scott Lingamfelter if she is eliminated and he is still on the ballot.
Meanwhile Corey Stewart looked poised to have a chance at this convention, but much of his support has imploded since he began mailing out anonymous attack mailings on the other candidates. Besides being illegal, it is bad politics to attack in a seven way race- and probably leaves Stewart without a clear path to 50%. It also diminishes the value of his endorsement when he is eliminated.
Senator Steve Martin has the best geographic argument and fits the GOP base well with his views- but his campaign has been invisible and most observers expect him eliminated early on.
That leaves four candidates with a real crack at the nomination- Snyder, Stimpson, Lingamfelter and Jackson.
The other two candidates on the ticket- Ken Cuccinelli and Mark Obenshain (who should defeat Rob Bell on the first ballot) may also have interests in who emerges in the LG contest. Cuccinelli would not want Davis or Stewart, but he probably doesn't need to worry about them emerging. He's unlikely to press levers against any of the other candidates so he will stay out of this and wait backstage for a winner. Obenshain has a different agenda- the winner of the LG race is his most likely competition for the GOP nomination for Governor in 2017 if they are both successful in November. Obenshain does not want to face a rival from the "liberty" community in Stimpson, or someone as well connected and funded as Snyder- so once he has prevailed watch out for his people to quietly begin pushing Lingamfelter or Jackson.
If you just watched the campaigns, then many would think Pete Snyder will certainly emerge as the nominee. But with the internal politics- including Davis supporting Lingamfelter and Obenshain likely wanting Lingamfelter as an opponent in 2017, I would put Lingamfelter and Snyder as co-front runners. However, that doesn't mean either is sure of having the support early on to advance into the final three- as it would only take about 20-25% of Delegates for any of the candidates like Davis or Stewart to advance and steal one of those slots even though they are unlikely to win. With her strong support from the Ron Paul nuts, Stimpson also has a chance to make it into the top three.
This race is headed for an exciting ending- and with four ballots its quite possible it could be well into the night on Saturday before the white smoke rises from the Richmond convention center to indicate Republicans finally have their 2013 ticket set.