Not Larry Sabato

Some Final Thoughts on Tuesday

Paul Goldman Accuses Deeds Campaign of "Plantation Mentality"

Paul's been here a couple times in the past few days, sharing his thoughts on the Great Debacle of 2009.  Now he's at Style Weekly- continuing to hammer away at the failed Deeds campaign- and pointing out their "Plantation Mentality" that helped bring the campaign down.

Wow.

Democrats Don't Take Their Online Supporters Seriously

Well, it's been a week since the election.  Were candidates serious about their online campaigns?  The best way to tell is to take a look at people who lost their elections to see if they disappeared after their loss or if they continued to engage their online supporters. We'll look at Creigh Deeds, Jody Wagner, Steve Shannon and the 8 Democratic members of the House of Delegates who lost re-election.

The statewide Democratic ticket wisely recognized the power of twitter this year.  Twitter is where many reporters are checking to see stories as they break and the immediate reactions of activists and voters to them.  It's also a great way to stay involved with your youngest voters- and since comments are limited to 140 characters it is quick enough that candidates don't need to spend much time to make an impact.

Creigh Deeds launched his twitter earlier this year, and won a lot of followers for his very personal tweets- including his music picks of the day.  He personally updated it almost every day during the election.  The morning after, Creigh tweeted and thanked his supporters- and hasn't been heard from since.  This appears to have been an election pander only- I doubt Creigh will be back with any regularity- even though he has a lot more time for it!

Jody Wagner launched her twitter in August of 2008 and tweeted for almost 15 months.  Jody was on a personal mission to prove that twitter should be a happier place, and she found time for an upbeat tweet with an explanation point almost every day. Oops, I mean... every day!  Anyway- her last tweet was about 15 minutes before the polls closed.  Since then- Jody has left the building. (Oops, missed one the day after the election.  No word since then).

Unlike Creigh and Jody who actually put some personal effort into twitter during the campaign, Steve Shannon tweeted less than 100 times- and many of them appeared to be written by staff.  Steve had the most unintentionally hysterical moment on twitter earlier this year when he accidentally tweeted his cell phone number (before immediately changing it- as if he was too important for twitter users to have his cell).  Pfft.  Bizarre- especially considering he's had that number for at least 5 years since he first ran for the House.  Anyway, so it's no big surprise that his final tweet was at 2 p.m. on election day.  Doubt we will hear from him again until he wants something else.

At the House of Delegates level, candidates are still more focused on Web 1.0 (static websites).  So how about the eight Democratic incumbents who lost re-election last week.  Have they thanked their supporters or congratulated their opponents?  Have they even acknowledged they lost?

Margi Vanderhye is proud to represent you and has been endorsed by the Washington Post and the Fairfax Times!  But not a word about the results last week.

Joe Bouchard decided to take some action online after he lost.  He deleted his website.  

Dan Bowling had one of the worst websites (it's a throw back to sites built in the early 1990's).  He can still help you with state bureaucrats- and you can still jam to "Working in a Coal Mine" while visiting his site- but no mention of his defeat last week.  Maybe the music on his site is a preview of his next career...

Paul Nichols has some glamour shots up and he thanks you for sending him to Richmond.  Not a word about the fact that voters decided not to do that again.

Shannon Valentine has some "key endorsements" and nice pictures.  Nothing about the election results Tuesday.

Chuck Caputo still needs your vote on November 3rd.  Uh... it's November 10th.

Bobby Mathieson is in a recount, but has appeared to have lost his seat.  His website doesn't mention any of this- he still needs your vote.

The one bright spot is David Poisson, who has a very nice thank you note up to voters for allowing him to serve for the last four years.  A classy ending to his time in the House.

UPDATE:  While I was writing this, Creigh came back!  Hopefully this is a good sign for the others.

UPDATE #2- Maybe this post is inspiring some people, Chuck now has his thank you letter up.

Tom Perriello, Noted OB-GYN (and soon to be "Former Congressman")

Just wanted to give Tom Perriello a quick shout out for being the only Democratic Virginia Congressman to vote for the Stupak Amendment.

POLICE JOIN SHERIFF DEPUTIES IN OPPOSITION TO MARSDEN

Amazing comment left here last night from the Fairfax County Police.  Thanks to Marshall Thielen for this information.

Wow, lots of anti law enforcement folks out there. Anyhow, I need to make some points to set the record straight on both Marsden and Cooch. I feel entitled as my organization has both endorsed and refused to endorse each based on our principles and their various agendas and positions soought.

It is true that Cooch is a huge supporter of law enforcement (not labor, but sometimes labor issues for us). He has pushed our bill of rights hard time and again and nobody can take that away from him. His attempts to give Virginia cops some level of protections and fairness like the free world provides is truly admirable, no doubt about it. He carried the torch for us and we endorsed him, did robo calls, planted signs, attended events, and arguably made a strong difference in that close race. We caught a whole lot of grief from the labor community for it, but we did the right thing even though his own party in the house killed the bill time and again, and some members of "our party" like Delegate Marsden failed to support the bill. Delegate Marsden told me in his Richmond office that he could not support the very watered down bill on our workers rights (bringing us in line with 40 other states) was "too much of a burden on managements abilities to effectively run their organizations." Excuse me? "Too much of a burden on managements abilities to effectively run their organizations?" This is a bill that one of the furthest right conservatives took the lead on?

Now, some will ask how in the world an AFL-CIO Union could possibly endorse Cooch in his Senate race and then endorse his opponent in the statewide AG race. The answer is simple. As a Senator, for our issues that he could reasonably help us, he was always there including midnight meetings at Arbys before critical votes to discuss strategy on how we could get the Democratic majority to support a law enforcement union bill (rather ironic concept).

With the likelihood of federal legislation mandating a very weak form of collective bargaining for public safety on the horizon, we as public safety unions needed an AG who would not be obstructionist in the legislation, which is why we simply could not support the Cooch for AG. As AG, he is in a unique position to attempt to block such legislation which he was not as Senator and he has made it clear that he intends to do so. Bottom line is that we did the right thing for our collective public safety membership. The FOP's top priority at the national level is collective bargaining, however the VA FOP endorsed the Cooch, which is something I will never understand. Oh, thats right, the VIRGINIA FOP is not a "union," right.....

In the future, we will support the best candidate for our members as we always have. Whoever "spit my beer all over my laptop" needs to not post while drinking. Know your facts before you display your level of intoxication.

If the Democratic party allows Marsden to be their candidate, they will continue the mistakes of the recent statewide races and loose another critical seat. Nominate a true Democrat and allow them to run as such. Thats the winner. Don't try to make a candidate out to be someone they are not. Marsden would be the worst possible candidate mentioned so far. He is a Republican in Democratic clothes. The Republicans will run a strong principled candidate who will beat the Democrats again if Marsden is the other candidate.

As for the whole "cutting of your nose to spite your face" I have a different view. We as Virginia labor need to support candidates truly behind our cause, not the least damaging to us. If we have a Democrat who does not attack us, yet does not support us, why not use our resources on those that do support us and see how those non union democrats do on their own without us? I refuse to be led around by a party. I am sick and tired of being taken for granted. Eventually the rest of the unions will as well and force change on one party or the other.

Go ahead anti cops, let me have it. I know from some posts that I should be happy to have a job and not try to bring Virginia into the 18th century as a starter, blah blah.

Creightards- Come Out Of Hiding!

OK, it's now been five days since the election and the three biggest Creigh cheerleading blogs from the primary (Waldo Jaquith, Fake Virginia and Virginia Democrat) have all failed to post a single word about the Governor's election since it happened Tuesday.  Even TeacherKen at Blue Commonwealth hasn't had a single diary on Creigh's results.

That says it all.

BACKLASH TO MARSDEN FOR SENATE GROWS

Guest Column by Dan Kalbacher

The Sheriff's Coalition was extremely busy this election cycle getting behind candidates who we have supported in the past to ensure that we fix our one weak area which has always been the House of Delegates. Delegate Dave Marsden was not endorsed this election cycle by the Sheriff's Coalition. From our standpoint he has not lived up to the billing we expected when we previously endorsed him in the past. He has been a very weak supporter of organized labor in general throughout his time in the House and has repeatedly put the interests of working men and women behind the interest of management and bosses.

Furthermore, his lack of support for the Law Enforcement Officer's Bill of Right is something that simply cannot be overlooked, especially when he was interviewed and initially stated he would be a strong supporter of it. Organized labor in Virginia public safety have the responsibility of representing the interests of their members and being in a right-to-work state we have to further those interests through the legislature with members who support us. Delegate Marsden's lack of support on this issue was during a time when it was necessary and crucial. It's very easy to talk and say you support the interests of the men and women who protect Virginians but it's more difficult to truly stand up for them when the time comes. It is those politicians who stand up who we need more of and will continue to support in our future endeavorers!

Currently we are less than enthusiastic about his intentions to run for the seat. We are a non-partisan organization that endorse the best candidate. This election we will have to determine who is the best candidate for the interests of organized labor and deputy sheriff's and if neither candidate is going to have our best interests in mind we will not get involved and focus our resources elsewhere, especially after losing many true supporters this last election.

MCDONNELL CLOSE TO TOTAL GOVERNMENT TAKEOVER

EDD HOUCK LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN TO SWING THE SENATE TO REPUBLICANS.

APPARENTLY DAVE MARSDEN DIDN'T NOTICE HE WAS ALMOST FIRED TUESDAY- AND NOW WANTS A PROMOTION?

What. The. #*@&.

10 Faces Creigh Deeds, Joe Abbey, Monica Dixon, David Dixon, David Petts and Kevin Mack Should Have To Look At EVERY Day

ARREST HIM NOW!!!!

GEORGE BURKE ASSAULTS VISITING 11TH DISTRICT CONSTITUENT!!!

I bet Gerry Connolly does nothing about this- he tolerates and encourages this kind of thuggery.

10 Easy First Steps to a VA DEM win in 2013

Guest Column By Paul Goldman

Do they have AA meetings for folks who have been drinking the Kool Aid too long? First things first: Step back people and listen the 24/7 finger-pointing, trash-talking, breast-beating and "I told you so" ad nauseam from what appears to be the VA Democratic version of Rush Limbaugh's ditto heads. GET A GRIP PEOPLE: Do yourself a favor and stop advertising your real level of experience in politics. Politics is a contact sport: so if you get into the ring, chances are you ain't coming out as Rocky Marciano, the only undefeated heavyweight champ. Fact is, every single President elected since passage of the Voting Rights Act lost an election before making it to the Oval Office. Mark Warner got beat in his first race. In politics, the only thing you can never, ever afford to lose are your principles.

Let's cut to the chase as Meg Ryan said in the movie The Presidio. No one in the Democratic Party leadership comes out of 2009 looking good: and no one can escape blame. The public criticisms of the Deeds campaign by top Democratic officials crushed whatever hopes there was of avoiding the worst top to bottom down ballot crushing in modern VA history. There is enough mayhem, collateral and otherwise, to make Quentin Turentino jealous. The Deeds for Governor campaign is history, and mercifully so. Coulda, woulda, shoulda if, yes these things need to be examined but in a thoughtful way, not as excuses for bashing and boasting. .

TRYING TO PRETEND THAT YOU COULD HAVE DONE BETTER WHEN YOU HAVE NO RESUME TO SUPPORT IT is a metaphor for the problem, not the solution.

The voters of Virginia sent a clear message: They are tired of hearing how Virginia was like Mississippi until the Warner-Kaine Era saved them. Virginians are proud of their state, and what has been achieved since the end of segregation: the people rightfully feel they deserve the credit, not the politicians citing studies that have no real meaning in the real world we face today, to the PR spin based on puff, not performance.

This doesn't mean Warner, Kaine, Webb lack public support or admiration. As Billy Ray Cyrus sang, Virginians know when and how to give credit where credit is due. But elections are about solving problems, and therefore are by definition forward-looking. Today's circumstances are such that running on a theme "you owe us for keeping a good thing going" is totally out of touch.

WHICH IS WHY WE CAN WIN IN 2013 IF WE GET OUR HEADS OUT OF OUR POSTERIOR.

Moreover, we have done it not once but twice before, come back from having lost in a landslide to the GOP gubernatorial candidate to win the Governor's Mansion 4 years later.

I had the good fortune of being asked to help Robb do it in 1981 and Warner in 2001. As is invariably the case in politics, the circumstances in 2013 will be different, as the famous Greek saying goes, you can't step in the same river ever again.

Things are always moving, life goes on, you live, you learn: or you get left behind.

THE COUNT DOWN TO 2013 HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

It will be time to suit up before you know it.

Here is a 10 step program to get "clean" from the Kool Aid and back drinking the good stuff based on what worked before. I didn't always agree back then, but time has taught me a lesson or two.

1. First, tell Mr. Nixon, I mean Dixon, and the other consultants/whatever from the Deeds campaign to show class and stop trashing Creigh Deeds in some Freudian attempt to say your strategy/TV ADS, etc. would have won but for the candidate. They should feel lucky there is no law, as there would be for every other alleged profession, allowing the client to sue and get his money back for being a victim of malpractice. Does Mr. Dixon actually think he could successfully defend a malpractice case if it were allowed? The sad fact is the Deeds campaign appears to have brought out the worst in too many otherwise talented people, it can happen, in all walks of life. Redemption can only happen in 2013. So take your medicine for 2009, be a man about it, and you will get your chance to get back on the horse.

2. Senators Warner and Webb have to take control of the Virginia Democratic Party. After the 1977 defeat, Chuck Robb moved to put in his hand-picked Chairman, I remember because I was on the other side of that one. He won easily. This time, I would assume their choice would win without any opposition at all. If they want Cranwell to stay, then they need to make that clear in the most public of ways. Until Warner and Webb take control, the healing process can not begin as it must. There might be some who feel the party leadership in the General Assembly should take the lead here. But that would be a huge mistake: only the Democrats in statewide office can do that.

3. Democrats need to join Governor-elect McDonnell on a few big things in a high profile, bi-partisan way. In hindsight, Robb's decision to make sure Virginians saw him working with Governor Dalton, or at least not being the point of the anti-Dalton lance, was a shrewd move, indeed the rather obvious one. Voters want a Governor who is trying to solve problems, which means they want to see Governor wannabees doing the same thing. As Lt. Governor, Robb had a ready made platform in that regard. Mark Warner, preparing to run for Governor, wisely teamed up with former Governor George Allen on a big educational thing. Nothing of such a high profile is required again: all that matters is that the press create the image of Democrats being principled and pragmatic, not super partisans. But it must not only be Webb and Warner here, it has to be the Democrats in the General Assembly too.

4. Warner and Webb need to raise the money to fund a poll and some focus groups to find out why, for the first time in state history, Virginia's legendary independent voting ticket-splitters mostly voted straight party this time, up and down the ballot for Republicans. We may all think we know the answer: but in politics, your biggest mistakes generally are not caused by what you know you don't know, but rather what you think you know but really don't.

5. Democrats need to put on a good show at the next Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner, great crowd, carefully selected speaker, this is going to be a marker for the press in a big way. This will take some thinking and the event will be here before you know. We need a big show of unity, strength, yada, yada, yada.

6. The State Democratic Committee needs to form a group that can study the reasons why the party's GOTV operation appears to have been a total bust. Turnout in gubernatorial elections is way down from the 1980's, indeed it is likely to have hit an all-time low in the modern two-party era. Presidential year voters aren't something that started with 2008, it has long been a part of things political. But we have the congressional elections next year and then a full General Assembly post-redistricting shoot out coming in 2011.

7. The Party leadership needs to start developing a re-districting strategy ASAP, particularly if there is any hope of changing what has become an increasingly partisan process over the years, in part due to decisions by the Rehnquist Court that not well appreciated by the political community in terms of how they changed what the Warren Court had in mind with Baker v. Carr. The better the Democrats do in 2011, the better the party is likely to do in 2013.

8. Robb and Warner had the ability to raise and/or contribute significant sums of money to the battle to rebuild the party and then take the Governor's Mansion. At the moment, there is no one seemingly situated to match what they did. There may not be. But Warner and Webb need to see if there is, and what it will take to get such a person - or persons more likely - to put an oar in the water and row together. Like it or not, money still talks.

9. Democrats need to think long and hard about the "identity politics" - as political scientists call it - that has become more and more a defining parameter to Democratic thinking. For purposes of full disclosure, I have never liked it, and have fought against as hard as anyone in this state on the Democratic side. My fear is that the results this past Tuesday suggest that too many independent voters see us as defining politics as representing groups, not individuals. Like it or not, perception is reality more than we care to admit.

10. The State Democratic Party needs to decide whether it's current organizational structure and operating modus operandi are dated for today's digital age. My gut says it is but that being said, I have no firm conclusions on the right changes to make. Yet, as the saying goes, all politics is local: and in that regard, 2009 is a reminder that the winner is decided by the voters who actually go to their local polls in a gubernatorial year. The Robb-Baliles-Wilder victories were in large measure due to the changing nature of the Virginia electorate as compared with the normative parameters only a few years previous. This was not as true for Warner and Kaine, they basically changed minds, not turnout models. It is always risky to make statistical judgments before having time to study the stats! But it seems a safe bet that to reach, in an optimum way, a growing and key part of any winning DEM coalition will require the State Party to do things differently.

Admittedly, the above is not submitted as the answers to the exam for a license in brain surgery. One would hope others could do better and then some. But at the same time, it is important to realize that Virginia Democrats have lost big time before, only to roar right back after taking stock, and then restocking the political shelf accordingly.

There is nothing wrong with our basic principles. We had, as the saying goes, a little performance anxiety and then some this past Tuesday. That's what can happen when you drink a little too much of the political Kool Aid. So let's go back to the well, double down on the basics, and before you know it, we will be ready to field the A-Team for 2013, and 2009 will be Old News.