Not Larry Sabato

Hide And Go Seek With Lurch

Just had one of the most entertaining experiences of my political life tonight...

I started by grabbing dinner with Janet Oleszek.  Janet has handled this entire situation with total class- from the Senate Caucus telling her she was "the candidate" and then pulling back to poll the district (with Marsden's pollster) set up a voting location (with former Marsden staff) and then announce Dave Marsden was moving in the district to run. 

We decided it was in the best interest of all involved for us to sit down with Dave and try to find a way to unite the party.  Since Dave had been calling Janet and she hadn't called back yet, we decided to go pay him a visit at home.  But which home?

We took a gamble to say Dave was probably at his home in Signal Hill precinct where he has lived for almost 20 years.  Yes, this is the house in the 34th Senate District, but he is allowed to leave the 37th to see his wife and there's no reason he would be at his "rented room" just before 9 p.m. on a weeknight.  So we drove over, and sure enough Dave's car (with the Delegate license plates) was in the driveway.

Now, one funny thing about the Marsden's house is the large glass windows around the family room with the TV.  As we got out of the car, we could see Dave sitting there watching TV.  He got up- and walked out of the room.  I figured he just didn't see us coming up the driveway.  So Janet knocks on the door- and about 30 seconds later, Julia Marsden answers the door.  Janet says "Hi Julia, I got Dave's phone call and wanted to stop by and chat with him".  To which Julia replies "He is not here.  He doesn't live here anymore.  He's at the Seward's"  (The Sewards are the large Democratic donors that Dave has "moved in" with to meet residency requirements in the 37th Senate District).

Janet and I are both above arguing with Julia on her front porch so we both thanked her and immediately went back to the car (plus it was raining and cold out).  We then decided to go over to the Seward's- even though we had seen Dave at his real house, we wanted to play whatever game Dave was trying to play.  So we drove across Burke to the Seward's house- who answered the door and said Dave was "out campaigning" and wasn't expected until later that night.

Out of curiosity we went back over to Signal Hill one more time.  Dave's car was still in the driveway- lights/tv were still on in the family room- but the shades were all shut tight.  Ha.  We decided to let Dave watch Monday Night Football in peace.

But one thing is for sure (besides Marsden's huge missed opportunity tonight); his entire "move" into the 37th Senate District is a complete load of crap.

Peekabo!

HAHAHAHA!!!!!

WaPo:

Marsden said Monday that he has rented a room in a house which sits in both the House and Senate districts, allowing him to run for Cuccinelli's seat. He said he has slept there for several nights.

Video seems to indicate the whole "roommate" thing isn't working out so well in the first week...

We Haven't Hit Bottom Yet

It appears Tim Kaine will send a tax increase to the legislature as he leaves office...

Branding Democrats as totally out of touch with a tax increase right now is a horrible idea.  And it isn't going to pass.  Is this some sort of murder-suicide pact as he is leaving office for the Democrats left in Richmond?

Norm has more.

Marsden's Pollster Finds Marsden To Be Strongest Possible Candidate

After the Deeds Debacle, every Democrat should be able to agree that we need to take a careful look at what consultants our donations are going to- and how that interacts with the process of a campaign.  I want to kick that off with a look at the upcoming special election in Senate District 37.

Democrats have successfully cleared the field for Delegate Dave Marsden to run for the 37th seat- and he will be moving in shortly.  How did they clear the field with other strong candidates like Chuck Caputo, Janet Oleszek, Luann McNabb and Kathy Smith all sniffing around at a possible campaign?  The Senate Caucus commissioned a poll last week to explore which candidate was the strongest in the field.  Seems fair. 

But of the 10-15 quality national Democratic pollsters who have done races in Virginia- the Caucus bizarrely selected Andrew Myers to conduct the poll- Marsden's personal pollster and one of his constituents. 

Why Myers?  Interestingly enough he was not used as the pollster in any of the eight targeted State Senate races in 2007.  He's been primarily polling for House of Delegates races only for the past few years in Virginia.  Hmm...

But wait.  There's more!  Because you might be thinking, why does it matter who does the poll?  In a special election it is very easy to skew a poll to say whatever you want it to.  Let me explain...

Of the five candidates, two (Marsden/Caputo) have run in both Governor's cycles (i.e. 05/09) and mid-term turnout (i.e. 07) cycles.  Two more (Oleszek/Smith) have run in only midterm turnout cycles (03/07).  Finally, McNabb was a first time candidate.

So here's what I would do for an initial voter sort if I was working for each candidate:

McNabb:  The fewest voters will know her because she has never run before.  So you want to poll the largest possible universe of voters (anyone who voted in last three years).  All polls start with a question of whether people are likely to vote in the upcoming election, but many people if asked will answer this question in the affirmative, even if they aren't planning to vote.  The increased participation will skew towards voters who don't know any of the candidates well- which will both increase the percentage of undecided voters which lowers the percentage each candidate receives- closing the gap between them.  Finally, I'd make sure the regional weights were set at whatever recent election had the highest turnout in Sully (again anyone who voted in one the last three) to make sure the voters who knew McNabb would get the biggest possible voice.  She'd still likely be in last place among the initial five because she hadn't introduced herself yet, but everyone would probably be within about 10 points of each other.

Smith:  Smith, the current Chairman of the School Board is the only Democratic elected official left that lives in Sully District.  She has run and won twice downballot from Cuccinelli victories in Sully District (03, 07).  Since education voters districtwide also represent their highest percentage of the electorate when School Board elections are on the ballot, I would only poll 2007 voters districtwide as a starting point.  Then once people opted in saying they would vote this year, I would weigh them based on the highest possible turnout (anyone who voted in one of the last three elections) since that would show the highest percentage of the electorate to the west.  That would likely be enough to put Smith past Oleszek (who would be in 4th) and into a virtual three way tie with Caputo and Marsden- with Caputo still narrowly leading because of the western skew and the fact Marsden was unopposed in 2007 and his strongest IDs will be voters who voted in 05/09 when he was contested- while Caputo faced a race in 07 and has ID among both groups in his district.

Oleszek:  Skewing the poll to Janet would be a no-brainer.  She came within 100 votes of beating Cuccinelli in 2007, which is also the lowest turnout election of the last four years- making it most similarly resemble a special election.  So use that election as the starting base for the poll- with the results weighted to recent special elections in the district.  Why recent specials?  The Bulova-Herrity special election was the most recent districtwide, and featured two candidates well known on the eastern end of the district- and much less known in the western end.  (Even though Herrity lives west, its in the 39th Senate, and his stronger base in the 37th is the West Springfield area where he grew up on the east end of the 37th rather than the Sully area he doesn't represent to the north of his house).  This configuration in the poll would give Oleszek the lead, Marsden in second (because of the regional weight) with Smith and Caputo tied for third and McNabb barely registering.

Caputo:  With Chuck the obvious polling method is using the 2009 Governor's Election as the initial model.  That eliminates McNabb, Smith and Oleszek from being close because of the number of voters who know a State Delegate from these higher turnout elections that do not know off year candidates or school board members.  Once you start with that model- the only challenge is Marsden who also benefits from the higher turnout model.  All you need to do to put Caputo ahead of Marsden is weigh the regions based on highest possible turnout (1 of last 3 elections)- and the poll comes back Caputo in 1st, Marsden in 2nd, with Oleszek/Smith tied for 3rd and McNabb in last because she hasn't ever run before.

Marsden:  Once again, the best starting point for Marsden is the Governor's election turnout, especially since his only two contested elections (05/09) followed that model.  From there, I would weight to people who had voted in recent special elections for the same reasons discussed in the Oleszek model above- it skews to the eastern side of the district that Marsden currently represents as a Delegate.  This poll would put Marsden in first, Caputo in 2nd , Oleszek in 3rd (the turnout model which benefits Caputo is more important than the weighting that helps Oleszek in this scenario), Smith in 4th and McNabb in 5th.

So with that in mind- guess what model Dave Marsden's pollster chose?  And guess who came out on top?  Ugh...

I would have chosen the 07 model because in a low turnout special election, the overall turnout will likely be smaller than any of the general election cycles, making the lowest 07 turnout as the closest match to poll.  That's also why I think Oleszek was probably the strongest candidate Dems could have put forward in this special election- because she was already known districtwide by the voters most likely to vote in this election.

Next time someone should tell Dick Saslaw and Mary Margaret Whipple to save the money for a poll that tells them the answer they want to hear- and hire this guy instead:

BREAKING: Warner and Webb are Democrats!

Nice scoop Anita!

McDonnell's Campaign Manager Voted in Dem Gov Primary

Just got a tip that Phil Cox took some time out of his busy schedule in June to vote in the Democratic Primary for Governor and Lt. Governor.

On a serious note- this just shows once again why we need to close Virginia primaries.  It's an insider vs. outsider type issue- and one I am hoping we can work with GOP outsiders like Attorney General-Elect Ken Cuccinelli to get changed.

On a lighter note- who did he vote for?  He might get the "consultant of the year" award if he voted for Creigh Deeds- seeing the collapse coming as many of us did in June.  More likely- he voted for Brian Moran.  No way he voted for Terry McAuliffe.

FAIRFAX DEMOCRATS CHANGE RULES TO BENEFIT MARSDEN AND INTIMIDATE LUANN MCNABB

In 2002 in the Special Election for the 37th Senate District, Fairfax Democrats had three polling places- one in each magisterial district in the 37th.  Springfield District chose Pohick Library in the east, Braddock chose Fairview Elem., and Sully District chose Westfield High School in the west for polling locations.  Voters massively split their ballots at the different polls- Cathy Belter won 79% of the votes at Pohick, 89% of the votes at Fairview, and Jim Mitchell won 85% of the votes at Westfield.

But in an effort to destroy McNabb's western base, this year Fairfax Democrats will ONLY vote at Fairview in Marsden's Delegate District.

Even worse- they are voting from 4:30-8:00 on a Thursday night IN RUSH HOUR.  (Our last 37th caucus was on a Saturday with absentee voting on Thursday to make it open to as many people as possible).

Fairview is a half hour drive from parts of Sully- when it is NOT rush hour.  It's over an hour long drive during rush hour.

This is thuggery at it's worst- and is an attempt to suppress Democratic votes from Sully District.  SHAME.

Marsden worked for Gilmore NOT Warner

I see the WaPo and WahhhTimes have both taken directly from Dave Marsden's press release that he worked for both Jim Gilmore and Mark Warner as Director of Juvenile Justice.

VERY misleading.

Warner had decided to replace with can the Gilmore-appointed Marsden before he even took office.  However, since this office is not cabinet level, it is not the first priority, so Warner didn't pay much attention to it until it was very close to swearing in time.  He decided to appoint 2001 LG candidate Jerrauld Jones- who was then a sitting Delegate and Chairman of the Black Caucus.

If Jerrauld had resigned at that point, Norfolk would have gone unrepresented for most of the 2002 session- when many key services were being cut.  So he decided to hold his resignation until after the General Assembly adjourned.  Dave was allowed to stay on (and get paid) as a lame duck for a couple months until that happened.

That is NOT serving under Gilmore and Warner.  Gilmore Hired.  Warner Fired.

Dave Marsden For Senate?

I'm appalled by the news that Dave Marsden will be moving into the 37th Senate District to run, and I think people deserve to know why this news is so upsetting to me.

I first met Dave in 1999 when I was President of the Fairfax Young Democrats.  Going into the 1999 elections (Gilmore midterms) Democrats trailed in the Virginia Senate by a 21-19 count, and the House of Delegates had 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 1 Independent who was caucusing with the Republicans.  In other words, a 50-50 deadlock.  My part of Burke was gerrymandered into the Clifton based district of then Delegate Jay O'Brien- a safe Republican area- so I volunteered on the other side of Burke in the race between Jim Dillard and Eileen Filler-Corn.  Eileen made the upcoming redistricting a central part of her campaign- pointing out the vicious race-baiting gerrymander certain to come under Republican control.  As Eileen pointed out, Dillard's moderate record was irrelevant if he was going to help add 10-15 right wingers to the House through redistricting.  Managing Dillard's campaign that year was Marsden himself- happy to be complicit in creating segregated voting districts so Republicans could completely take over the state government.

Having succeeded in re-electing Dillard and helping the Republicans gain their first ever majority in the House of Delegates, Marsden was rewarded with a high ranking position in the Gilmore Administration- Director of Juvenile Justice.  Marsden was in this position until after Mark Warner was elected- and Mark chose to clean up this agency by appointing Jerrauld Jones as the new Director. 

In the redistricting, my precinct was added into the 41st District with Jim Dillard- but I didn't have much time to pay attention to what was going on there, as I was managing Chap Petersen's campaign against Jack Rust in the neighboring 37th District.  Chap of course was elected downballot from Mark Warner.

A few months after the 2001 election, Senator Warren Barry resigned to join the Warner administration.  A special election was touched off to replace him- and with the Senate now 22-18, Democrats hoped a victory would bring them within one vote of control with new Lt. Governor Tim Kaine breaking the ties.  Republicans nominated Ken Cuccinelli by 101 votes over Mike Thompson, while Democrats nominated Cathy Belter by 31 votes over Jim Mitchell.  Cuccinelli went on to win the special election (even though Belter carried the eastern side of the district, including the 41st House district)- and his win crushed Democrats hopes of taking over the Senate.

With an election coming up the next year in 2003, Democrats made defeating Cuccinelli a top priority- and nominated Jim Mitchell to oppose him.  At the same time, Jim Dillard was NOT contested by a Democrat in the 41st District, but had two Independent candidates challenging him.  Marsden- fresh off being dismissed from the Warner administration was back helping Jim Dillard.  He wasn't just working his neighborhood of Signal Hill either- Marsden was so intent on helping Dillard run up a margin over opponents he was already crushing- that he coordinated the joint Cuccinelli-Dillard campaign efforts in Burke- even helping Cooch staff his polls on election day with people handing out Cuccinelli-Dillard literature.  In fact, in 2005, Cuccinelli even remarked in an article that “It would have been easy for David Marsden to never help me; he doesn’t even live in my district! But he not only worked the polls for me—he traveled into my district to distribute my sample ballots in two precincts! His efforts helped me carry the Braddock District in my last campaign!”

Soon after getting walloped in the 2003 race, Michael Golden flipped from Independent to Republican and began making noises of challenging Dillard in a GOP primary.  With Dillard's impending retirement a non-secret, Marsden began exploring the option of running as a Republican.  It didn't take him long to figure out that Republicans wouldn't nominate a moderate in a primary- and he and Dillard starting looking for a way to elect him as an Independent or a Democrat.  That opportunity came in 2004 during the Warner tax-fight, as Dillard secured the commitment of a number of Democratic Delegates to support Marsden as a Democrat if he flipped parties. 

Only problem for this plan was there already was a leading Democratic candidate- Cathy Belter from the School Board, who had carried this district in the 2002 Senate election.  (Full disclosure:  I had already signed on to manage Cathy's race for Delegate when it got underway in 2005).  In the fall we began hearing mumblings about Marsden running as a Democrat, and he suddenly started showing up at back to school nights handing out flyers for John Kerry.  Possibly making Dave the only person in the universe to have supported Ken Cuccinelli and John Kerry within 12 months.  This conversion happened sometime after the primary though- cause Dave didn't vote in the February primary that 400,000 Democrats did around Virginia. 

The first weird sign for Cathy came soon after the 2005 election when Vivian Watts sent her a note- CCing her opponent Dave Marsden. Here's what it said:

There was a cartoon in the New Yorker last month with the caption "I said to myself, 'Maybe I can't change the world, but I can remodel my bathroom.'" It has a prominent place on our refrigerator!

That provides one perspective to your interest... Are you VERY sure that you want to? (1) Like mine, [this] is a swing district; therefore, you will have to run EVERY two years until you retire. Most of them will be serious races. All of them will require that you put your life on hold again and again and again (!), with no other priorities (like remodeling a bathroom or, often, even the people you care most about.)

(2) Unless you get personal reward at the end of the day just knowing more about government or Virginia, you will be miserable in the House of Delegates. Trust me: there are better ways to serve. As a member of the minority party (by A LOT!), you will not be given the opportunity to experience personal success. If you have an area of expertise (ie, mine in transportation) you will be shut out and ignored to make you less viable in the next election. The House Republican majority is all about politics and winning, not about governing. Because in my heart of hearts I love the challenges of governing, whatever committee I'm moved to, I dig in and make the most of it. If you cannot do that and what you REALLY want to do is make a difference in education, as a Democrat, you can do far more by being a leader, innovator, and honest critic outside the Virginia legislature.

In other words- go remodel your bathroom, bitch, and let the Republican run unopposed in the Democratic primary.  (No word on why Dave shouldn't go remodel his bathroom instead and leave the Democratic primary to... Democrats).

After this email Cathy was charged up and ready to fight this thing out, and I spent many hours with her preparing for this primary campaign.  Then suddenly one day I got a call from her- clearly upset- asking me to come over to her house.

That morning Cathy had been called to a meeting with Vivian Watts, Sharon Bulova and other local party leaders who lived in neighboring legislative districts.  Present at the meeting to Cathy's surprise was Dave Marsden who listened in (while standing in the doorway with his arms crossed, smirking at Cathy) while these leaders told Cathy she was "slipping" and "losing it mentally" and that they would be forced to bring this to the public's attention if she didn't drop out of the race.  Indeed this was enough to make Cathy leave the meeting crying- and she was out of the race.

I was so furious at what happened that by the end of the week I had filed to run against Dave in the Democratic primary.

The next couple months were a tremendous amount of fun.  Len Belter (Cathy's husband) showed up to the Springfield Dems to introduce my candidacy at the meeting after Cathy dropped out, and most of the committee members inside the district endorsed my campaign.  (Although in fairness, most of the party leaders outside the district endorsed Dave).  While I never had a fundraiser or did money calls, I raised almost $10,000 from people giving me checks unsolicited at doors and events.  I knocked on about 1,500 doors- even door knocking during a nine inch mini-blizzard (everyone was home)! 

I am pretty sure I would have trounced Marsden in the June primary, but I decided to drop out about four months before it would take place for a couple reasons.  1)  I was 25 and I do not come from a rich family.  I had not planned to run for office and had zero in savings.  After a couple months of campaigning while working at a low paying day job in Tysons- I realized that if I won the primary in June, I couldn't be sure I would have the personal resources to make it to the November election- and I didn't want to go through all of this to drop out after winning in June.  Even if I could make it to November, the legislature pays almost nothing, and I wouldn't have been able to even look for another job until the following March when session ended.  It just wasn't feasible with personal finances.  2)  I made a major political miscalculation.  As I was getting pushed to the left in the primary I thought that it was not positioning me well for the general election in a district George W. Bush had narrowly carried the year before.  With Kaine-Kilgore looking like a close race statewide, I figured it would be close in my district and that I was not well positioned to win downballot from a 50-50 top of the ticket.  Well, Kaine surged late in that campaign, and ended up winning the 41st by over 20 points- so as it turns out, I would have had no problem winning the general election downballot from that wave.  But I didn't know this in February!

I'm not going to get into the personal attacks that Dave launched against me while (and after) I was a candidate, but I thought his campaign was one of the most classless I have ever seen in politics, although I admit to being biased.

After I dropped out there were a few letters to the editor from local Democrats in the newspaper pleading for another Democrat to step up and challenge Marsden in the Democratic primary- but no one did so.  One of the reasons for this was Marsden's quickly expanding war chest- which was aided by donations from himself.  Those personal donations were all made a few days after Jim Dillard's financial report showed payments of identical amounts to the Marsden's for "consulting" services.  Instead of just donating directly, Dillard wanted to make sure it appeared that the Marsden's were actually working for the money, and laundered these campaign donations through their personal account.  Pathetic.  Months later Dillard announced his "endorsement" after looking at both candidates.  Ha.

In November of 2005, Marsden was elected on Tim Kaine's coattails, and I decided to let a lot of these details go to rest.  But his record in the General Assembly for the past four years has been absolutely pathetic.  Marsden voted to ban stem cell research.  He voted to repeal the estate tax, making Virginia's tax code far more regressive, and helping to lead to the huge budget shortfalls today.  Marsden was one of only a handful of Democrats to vote for the "abuser fees" and thousand dollar speeding tickets proposed by the Republicans in 2007- and he also voted for the unelected regional taxing authorities that were struck down by the Virginia Supreme Court unanimously.  And I won't even go into his failure to prepare for amendments he was offering- made famous on Youtube.  His union busting led to the Sheriff Deputies and Fairfax Police to issue pre-emptive statements opposing his potential Senate candidacy.

And now he is the candidate Senate Democrats want to run for the Senate?  He doesn't even live in the 37th Senate District and has to move in to run!  Marsden is one of the reasons we were put in the minority to begin with- and then obliterated in redistricting.  He supported Cuccinelli's re-election in 2003 by organizing sample ballots.  And his legislative record is an absolute disaster- leading voters in the precincts that overlap with this Senate District to vote to fire him earlier this month- he only survived with support from his three precincts that overlap with Chap. 

This is the future of the Democratic Party in the Senate?

HELL NO.  I don't care who is supporting him. This is totally unacceptable.  Marsden must be stopped.

Thoughts Coming Later Today...