August "Dirty Dozen"

It's time for the new "Dirty Dozen" of the 12 best Delegate races.

District---------------------August-------------------July----------------May----------------April

52-Frederick/Barg--------1st-----------------------1st-----------------3rd-----------------2nd
37-Bulova/Mason----------2nd----------------------2nd-----------------1st-----------------3rd
26-Lohr/Fulk-----------------3rd----------------------5th-----------------4th-----------------6th
6-Keister/Crockett-Stark--4th-----------------8th-----------------8th-----------------NOT
41-Golden/Marsden--------5th----------------------7th-----------------5th-----------------4th
87-Miller/Ball----------------6th---------------------4th-----------------2nd----------------1st
42-Albo/Werkheiser--------7th---------------------9th------------------7th----------------8th
75-Tyler/Saunders----------8th---------------------3rd------------------NOT--------------NOT
67-Craddock/Caputo--------9th---------------------6th------------------NOT--------------7th
10-Armstrong/Young-------10th--------------------11th-----------------NOT-------------NOT
64-Barlow/Lapetina---------11th--------------------NOT-----------------NOT-------------NOT
9-Dudley/Ferguson-----------12th-------------------NOT-----------------NOT------------NOT

More information on where the campaigns are ranked and why will be coming soon.

Comments

[Lowell]

Good list, but what about Roemmelt vs. Marshall and McCarty vs. Kilgore? Something tells me those are going to be a LOT closer than you think, with possible upsets in the making...

[GayDem]

I'd add Black vs. Poisson. Black got what, 52% last time? People have tired of his act.

[NoVA-9]

agreed on adding those two campaigns in NOVA... i thin both of them have big potential.. Roemmelt may not win but he is going to have a big showing... and Poisson just may pull it out... I think they are definately races to watch...

[uselogic]

Roemelt is a good candidate and a great guy and the 13th district is changing. None of that will change the basic math: there aren't enough people willing to vote Democrat in the 13th district.

In other Prince William Districts there are the same dynamics but starting from more favorable numbers: demographics trending more Democratic while the delegates remain conservative.
That's why Barg/Frederick is #1. and why I think the top sleeper race is the earnie porta challange to michele mcquigg.

[NoVA-9]

I really like Porta as a candidate... he is a guy so committed to winning he is out there knocking on as many doors as he can HIMSELF... I think he has a real good shot to pull thi s out in November..

[Not Larry Sabato]

uselogic is right on the 13th District.

1st District race is over.

Porta has an uphill fight because his district's Democrats don't show up in Governor's years (hence Kerry running better than Warner)

[Lowell]

NoVA-9: Right, I should have mentioned Earnie Porta. Duh!!

[NoVA-9]

NLS:

dont you think that if Porta keeps up the momentum of talking to everyone face-to-face his chances of increasing democratic performance go up? I think u may have underestimated this race...

[uselogic]

The other factor: Kerry ran significantly better than Gore, so theoretically over a four year period Dem performance on the state level will increase in paralell. Combine that with Nova-9's description of the campaign and that could be a recipe for an upset in the 51st.

[Not Larry Sabato]

It's possible, that's why we haven't called the 51st. But it's not likely that the electorate has changed that much.

[nasuna]

The 51st has barely changed at all since redistricting. If you look at Prince William County population trends, the magesterial districts which have had the smallest population growth are Occoquan (which has had virtually no population growth), Woodbridge (where the population growth has all been in the southern part of the district and in heavily Republican Belmont Bay) and Neabsco (where the small amount of growth has been in the western half.)

Where is the 51st district? All of Occoquan, the north end of Woodbridge and the east end of Neabsco. If there are 500 more registered voters there than there was four years ago, I'd be shocked.

Porta may be knocking on hundreds of doors, but Michele McQuigg is probably moving faster, knows who the likely voters are and has knocked on over 100,000 doors in that district over the last twenty years.

McQuigg has this in the bag. NLS should call this ne and put Porta out of his misery.

[PWC]

Election results don't lie. John Kerry lost by only about 75 votes in the district. In the same precincts (not HoD District) in 2000, Gore lost by many percentage points. It seems something has changed. Obvioulsy this doesn't make the district like Fredericks - but it puts it within the realm of possibility.
Combine that with an aggressive campaign and energetic candidate and you have the making for a close, exciting race.

[NoVA-9]

PWC: couldn't have said it better myself.... not to mention Porta is just a great guy... i think he is gonna pull this out and surprise a lot fo people...

[Gabbo]

Even if candidates like Porta and Poisson don't win this thime, they can run again if they get close. And if these areas are changing as much as some of you say that they are they might just be a year or two ahead of the demographic curve.

[Virginia Centrist]

Gabbo - agreed. It's common for folks(or Fulk's) to run a couple of times before finally winning.