52nd District Finance Reports

Outlook:  Toss Up

This has been our #1 race of the year for the past two months, but some recent developments suggest it may be slipping down the list.  The demographics and past results suggest a Hilda Barg victory/Democratic Pickup, but the campaign has been very one sided and favored freshman incumbent Jeff Frederick.

JULY 1ST- AUGUST 31ST

                                                   RAISED----------------SPENT
FREDERICK                             $131,103--------------$33,101
BARG                                       $71,115-------------------$47,258

OVERALL

                                                  TOTAL RAISED----------------CASH ON HAND
FREDERICK                             $391,520----------------------$202,961
BARG                                        $248,062---------------------------$168,868

At first glance this report is very one sided in favor of Jeff Frederick.  Almost a 2-1 fundraising advantage over the summer, with $15,000 less spent.  This has shot Frederick ahead by about $35,000 in cash on hand ($202,961-$168,868).  Frederick has an even more impressive $150,000 advantage in money raised ($391,520-$248,062), but as we said earlier this year when we compared him to a leaking Brinks truck, most of that was wasted away.

Our friend Mitch Cumstein over at Too Conservative had a post up as soon as the reports were up.  Here's the excerpt we found the most interesting:

"Speaking of an issue just going away (or never going anywhere, for that matter), Mr. Frederick has an interesting reporting concern of his own. On 4/19, he had a fundraiser in DC featuring none other than Tom “The Hammer” DeLay. It sounds like it was a reasonably successful event: Jeff lists contributions over $100 of $8,850 on the same day. Not bad. What is interesting is that his reports list no expenses or in-kind contributions for the event. That’s not exactly fair, there was an expense listed on the same date of $152. For copier toner. That’s it. No food or any other event expenses. Now, are we supposed to believe that the guests ate campaign literature? I may be relatively new to the campaign scene, but I find that unlikely. This “oversight” was pointed out briefly on the blogs at the time, but the issue has never gained any traction and no amended report has ever been filed. I’m very surprised that the Barg campaign hasn’t pressed on this. There may not be any wrong-doing here, in fact there probably isn’t. But it is at least an opportunity to tie Frederick closer to DeLay, who isn’t the most popular political figure around these days."

Well Mitch, the worst thing someone with a reporting problem can do is create a second one. 

A closer look at Mr. Frederick does just that.

This report covered the entire summer.  Here are all of Mr. Frederick's expenses.

A couple of credit card payments, and some printing.... hmmm..... anything missing?  Hilda Barg spent almost $20,000 on staff over the summer. Is the Frederick campaign run completely by volunteers... or did Jeff lie on another report? 

Candidates should all remember that the Code of Virginia requires them to both report actual expenses, as well as obligations.  In other words, if you are a poor campaign, and you need cash, there is nothing wrong with the staff being paid at a later date if they agree.  BUT, you must report it on the day it was due to them as an expense or outstanding debt (depending on the arrangement you work out). 

It is illegal for a campaign to just ignore the obligation exists and pretend like the cash is there for them to spend in the report.  As George Allen articulately argued during the McCain-Feingold debate, Virginia's laws, which are the weakest in the country, still work because they require full disclosure of everything.  You can take a check from anyone, any time, for any amount, and you can spend it, however you want, but you must disclose every penny in and out so the citizens can see what you are doing, and judge for themselves. 

We agree with Senator Allen on the intent and purpose of Virginia's disclosure laws.  It's sad to see Jeff Frederick feels that a good press story or two is worth violating the spirit, and perhaps the letter of Virginia's campaign finance laws.

With the Barg campaign having just fired their manager, perhaps in some hot water over using the teacher courier system for volunteers, and is in general disarray, this report should make this race a "Leans Republican".  We can not give that rating out yet, as it is impossible to rate the standing of a campaign, where one is open in their ineptitude, and the other is so bold in lying on their campaign finance reports.

On another note, while it is still too early to tell, but Barg's new campaign team seems to be getting on their feet quickly, by updating the website we had rated so lowly, and adding a "Commuter Bill of Rights" on the front page, as well as a much better picture of Hilda then the hideous one up previously.

With all other House seats (13th, 31st, 50th and 51st) all called for the GOP in Prince William, this race will be the one to determine if Prince William stays 100% GOP in it's House delegation.

UPDATE:

As far as we are concerned the Frederick staffing issue is still unresolved, and hasn't been answered adeqately.

However, the original report in Too Conservative, doesn't fully stand up.  Frederick did report those expenses on a credit card.  However, by reporting on a credit card, he avoided saying who was involved in those expenses.  That's very disapointing, it's legal, but it's a loophole that needs to be shut.  Jeff Frederick should not be undermining the disclosure based system of campaign finance, he should amend his report and tell us what on his AMEX bill he is paying for.

To the extent our report was in any way undermined by the Too Conservative story, we apoligize.

-----------------------------------------------------------
52nd District

John Kerry 13,579 (52.3%)
George W. Bush 12,366 (47.7%)

52nd District State Elections
12,217 votes cast in 2001

WARNER WON 52.3%-47.7%
KAINE WON 50.6%-49.4%
KILGORE WON 54.1%-45.9%

From Scenario Month

FREDERICK wins 5 scenarios:  "King Kilgore", "Washington Controls Richmond", "Year of the Internet", "Primary Votes", and "Kennedy-Nixon Redux (Looks)".

BARG wins 5 scenarios:  "Ohio", "Females First", "Richmond Controls Richmond", "Virginia's Current Royalty (Warner)", and "King Kaine"

ON THE WEB
http://www.votejeff.com/
http://www.hildabarg.com/

Comments

NLS, please spend more time investigating these allegations before writing about them. In section B, his campaign manager is clearly mentioned as an In-Kind contribution from House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. I don't know how common this is, or what arrangement he has, but it is clearly reported.

[Not Larry Sabato]

I did see that, that's why we said staff, and not manager. Jeff has more than one person working on his campaign.

No reason to play games with us, Prince William Republicans were our source on the Frederick staff situation. The report needs to be amended, just like the other one.

[PWC Voter]

Frederick is well known to have a huge bunch of volunteers.

NLS is obviously VERY slanted -- he has never given Frederick a break in his lackluster analysis, and whenever Barg takes 2 steps backwards and 1 step forward, she, according to NLS, as momentum.

There is no issue with Frederick's campaign finance stuff. He seems to disclose more than he has to (like ALL contributors, instead of just those over $100).

Barg's campaign manager gets FIRED and you brush over that like it is no problem? What kind of biased site is this? Her campaign is in total disarray and they are just now starting the campaign with 50 some days to go?

[NLS is Biased]

Biased NLS will continue to give every advantage he can make up ("Hilda's hair looks nice today, so she has the advantage in this race"), and then the day before the election he will call it for Fredrick. Fredrick will win, and NLS will say "I told you so". He needs to apply for a job at CBS News.

[Not Larry Sabato]

"Other PWC Voter"- I deleted your comment since you were claiming to be a different person then "PWC Voter" coming from the same IP.

[Not Larry Sabato]

The fact is this by the way. In a district John Kerry and Mark Warner and Tim Kaine all won, Barg has the upper hand if she doesn't blow it. As I said above, the campaign so far has been one sided in favor of Frederick.

[Mitch Cumstein]

I pointed this out as much to illustrate the ineptness of the Barg campaign as to shed a disparaging light on Jeff's reporting practices. It amazes me that more hasn't been made of this. NLS has this rated as the #1 race to watch for good reason. This really could go either way (though I think that Jeff will ultimately win). That the Barg campaign hasn't taken advantage of this situation simply defies logic.

[Another PWC Voter]

Too bad NLS deleted it, because it was a valid (and true) point that I agree with it, so I'll repost:

Barg's campaign is just stuck. 50 days from the election, and she still has yet to communicate
district-wide in any forum (mail, phone, tv, etc.). That's right: she has done NO district-wide voter
contact! 50 days out!

NLS: you are reckless. If you think Frederick has done something wrong, you should ask the elections
board to investigate instead of being the judge and jury in calling him a lier with no basis in fact
for doing so. Sounds like a libel lawsuit if you ask me.

[tooconservative]

Random anonymous people-
NLS has ALWAYS given an accurate account of the delegate races, not leaning one way or another.
If Craddock and Golden each have around 4 staffers, with only the CM being paid by the Party, then logic would tell us Frederick would too.
This race is going to be close, and I don't believe that the way Frederick's percieved , even in his own party is going to help.

[PWC Voter]

What does some guy called "too conservative" from Fairfax; and another guy "Cumstein" who claims to be from PWC but obviously not in Frederick's district; and another guy from God knows where who ignores valid facts (NLS) know about what is going on in this race?

Sounds like a bunch of guys tailgating outside a football stadium during a game. They're half-drunk listening to a radio that only works half the time, but proclaiming they they know what is going on on the football field. In fact, they're so smart, they even claim to be able to call the game for the blue team (with only half the information), selectively ignoring the cheers, much louder for the red team, from those actually there, at the game.

Do the three of you get the mail in this race? Do you get the phone calls? Has your door been knocked on? Do you see the TV. Do you see the signs lining neighborhood streets? Have you attended any PWC GOP meetings? Have you attended any PWC DEM meetings?

You guys just love to make stuff up. Frederick is widely supported by the GOP, in the House and in his district. If some GOPers don't like him outside his district, so what. It doesn't matter.

[52nd District Voter]

Yes! I agree completely with PWC Voter. These guys have no idea what they are talking about.

BTW, the mail I'm getting from Fredrick is paid for by the "Republican Party of Virginia".

[TMU]

I'm still dying laughing from these yahoos who think posting under multiple nyms is really helpful to their cause. Is that like having an imaginary friend?

[Mitch Cumstein]

What are you people talking about? I've never said anything but that I think Barg's team is inept and that I think Jeff will ultimately win. I made my statement about the financial reporting because: a) Something doesn't seem to be right about it and b) Barg's campaign has sat on their hands and done nothing to take advantage of an obvious opportunity.

I've known (and stated) from the beginning that Jeff has the support he needs to win and that Hilda appears to have been dragged into this race kicking and screaming. And, from what I've seen and heard, it shows on both fronts. So just take it easy, and get out there for Jeff if you need something to take the edge off.

Hilda's campaign has wasted the past few months since she announced. When she changed her campaign staff the campaign only had 300 IDs for those months. (2/3 of which came from the Kaine's staff.)

Hilda has also refused to debate. She is weak on traffic and immigration, tied to developers and more a Republican than a Democrat.

While this is a swing district it will elect Frederick on November 8th. Here's hoping that Hilda will get the hint and retire from politics after the election.

The other delegate races in PWC are closer than the 52nd.

[Riley, Not O'Reilly]

"The other delegate races in PWC are closer than the 52nd."

??????????????????

Where did THAT observation come from?

I live in the 52nd and have served on the PWC GOP Exec. Cmte. in the past, so I know the county pretty darn well. Lingamfelter is unopposed. If Marshall has an opponent, I'm not aware of it. And McQuigg is on a roll. In the 52nd, you've got a freshman delegate being challenged by a 20-year incumbent supervisor. I don't see how the other races are tighter than that.

[Not Jack Herrity]

PWC Voter, you are out in left field. The fact of the matter is that Jeff Frederick held a fundraiser with Tom "Hammer" DeLay, and had no expenses come out of it. That is absolutely impossible. Under campaign finance law, you are required to disclose everything, even if someone else paid for it on your behalf.

Frederick has got to come clean and fix that report.

PS - Tell NLS to watch for me over at Rozell's site....poor dude asked me to pinch hit for him while he's laid up.

Riley - just an FYI (unless your comment was meant tongue-in-cheek & I just didn't pick up on the subtlety of it) -

Bob Marshall is running against Bruce Roemmelt: http://www.electroemmelt.org/

[Sullivan]

This is a sincere question --

What should this report look like with respect to paying staff?

I noticed that a campaign manager and some consulting was charged as an in-kind contribution. Is the problem that there is a specific person who is unaccounted for, or that staff costs should be higher?

Reason I ask is I noticed something somewhat similiar with respect to another candidate. Before I say anything about it, I want to make certain I am looking at the right things.

[Not Jack Herrity]

You guys are missing the funniest part about this - Frederick has no logical reason to hide these expenses. If someone else paid for them, they are in-kind expenses, which means he's UNDERREPORTING how much money he's raised. In-kind contributions count towards your total. I don't think this is subterfuge on Young Jeffy's part - it's just plain incompetence. And it's just laughable that the guys at Too Conservative can't get through to their hard-headed friend.

[mitch's wife]

I'll echo Riley's comment...

"The other delegate races in PWC are closer than the 52nd."

??????????????????

Where did THAT observation come from?

I, for one DID know about Bruce Roemmelt and I agree, not only is no race in PWC tighter than the 52nd, no other race is tight at all. Bruce Roemmelt may be a gem of a man for all I know (I've never met him) and Earnie Porta might come across as charming, but both Marshall and McQuigg will WALK AWAY with their races. 60% minimum for BOTH of them.

As for Harry Parrish's opponent (whose name I can never remember)... he'll get fewer votes in the general than Steve "Dace City-it" Chapman got in the primary!

[PWC Voter]

I think my earlier point about NLS (and others) bias on this site; as well as my point about NLS selectively ingoring facts.

It took me all of 3 minutes to go to the sbe website and here's what I found:

http://tinyurl.com/72shx

Looks like some event expenses to me.

[mitch's wife]

My crack about Steve Chapman would have been funnier if my typing were better. I meant to call him Steve "Dale Cidiot" Chapman. It's a combination of "Dale City", where he really lives, and "idiot", which he is one of. But I typed "Dace City-it", which makes no sense at all.

[Not Jack Herrity]

If you guys want the straight skinny on Frederick's campaign finances, go here: www.virginia-elections.blogspot.com.

It looks like PWC Voter is on to something.

[PWC Voter]

Thank you, NJH.

This underscores two points I've been making: NLS is biased against JF and will highlight anything he can to make JF look bad while simultaneously highlighting the smallest positive for HB and then giving her the edge. He call’s JF a liar with no credible reason for doing so, and then makes excuses using Kerry’s numbers in the 52nd.

Second point: NLS neglects to do his homework. He has no idea what is going on in this district, on the ground or otherwise, and when pointed to information that should help him know what is going on, he ignores it.

Most people would check facts before outright calling someone a liar (like making a three minute investment on the sbe website), but instead conveniently chose not to so that he can further his candidate’s (HB) cause.

People should beware of this guy (NLS) masking around as some sort of expert but really no better than your worst neighborhood gossip queen.