Attorney Generals Race

Earlier today we promised you a story on a Republican who has walked up to the line of offending moderate voters, but carefully avoided crossing it, and is now a massive favorite to win election.

That candidate is Bob McDonnell.

In his race against Creigh Deeds, Bob in a lot of ways started out the underdog.  First he faced an energetic, rich challenger in the primary, who got up in his face and attacked him.  Bob also had some silly statements in the past, including not being able to remember if he ever had oral sex.  Waiting in the wings was Deeds, saving money and deemed by the Richmond establishment to be "the perfect statewide candidate".

So how did McDonnell break out into nearly a double digit lead?

First of all he united his base.  So many candidates on both sides don't understand that in a statewide race your base has got to be the first priority.  Bob has stayed conservative enough to keep his base in line, and not really have any cracks.

While a united base is critical, it won't put either side over the top in Virginia.  The next step is reaching out to the middle.  Here's where Bob has surprised a lot of people, and done far better than Creigh:

The recent Mason Dixon shows Bob up 8 statewide.  Here's the count by region, and why the results are coming in like this.

Northern Virginia

This is the only region Deeds leads in, and the current count is 39%-31%.  Eight points is equal to Tim Kaine's 46%-38% margin in NOVA, but Deeds should be doing better than Tim, especially with Potts at 5%.  At the same time Leslie Byrne leads by 11%, 44%-33%.  Northern Virginia Democrats have left conservative Democrats downballot blank in large numbers before, and McDonnell seems to have a good idea of what issues work for him in NOVA.  I don't see Creigh racking up a large margin here.

Metro Richmond

This is the shocker.  Creigh Deeds runs 15 percent behind McDonnell here 47%-32%, while Tim Kaine is even 43%-43%-7%.  Tim does pull some Republicans in his home region, but Leslie Byrne is running three points better than Creigh here 46%-34% and its her opponents home region.  More on why below...

Hampton Roads

There's home field advantage and then there is Lane Stadium on a Thursday night or RFK Stadium for a Redskins playoff game.  Bob McDonnell has the latter here.  Tim Kaine leads in this region by 3 points 45%-42%-7%, and Leslie Byrne leads by five (44%-39%) so this is not a Republican stronghold.  Bob McDonnell shoots out of here with a twenty six point lead 54%-28%.  This is a rout so complete it is breathtaking.  A 33 point swing from the LG race.

Rural voters have gotten a lot of attention as the decisive force in Virginia politics.  But that's not totally true, and this race exposes that.  The reason rural voters have gotten a reputation as the force is this:  Try to imagine starting outside Washington D.C. and heading down the eastern side of Virginia, known as the urban crescent.  Democrats take a large lead inside the beltway, Republicans begin winning outside the beltway, but by smaller margins so Democrats lead all the way until you leave NOVA.  Republicans pick up a little more ground between the DC suburbs and the Richmond suburbs, then finish off the Democratic margins in the Richmond suburbs,  Richmond City gives the Democrats back a little more margin, which again disappears on the Peninsula.  Virginia Beach cancels out Norfolk, and the entire eastern side of the state could be called a couple points GOP, a couple points Dem, depending on turnout and election year.  That makes the rural areas decisive.  But some candidates can change that balance, making them strong favorites regardless of the rural vote.

This is called the "Urban Crescent coalition" and it is one of the hardest coalitions to pull together.  Bob McDonnell leading in the two of the three major regions by 26% and 15% while trailing in another by 8% makes him the first candidate to successfully pull this off since Don Beyer lost rural areas in 1993 for Lt. Governor while routing his opponent in all 3 urban crescent regions (even winning Virginia Beach).  Rural areas get no say when a candidate is special enough to win the urban crescent big. 

Ironically, with his own rural problems, McDonnell is pulling together exactly the coalition Tim Kaine needs to win.  Tim has never been attempting to replicate the Warner coalition, in many western Virginia counties he trailed Warner by 4-7% even while on the ticket with him, so he was never going to be able to do that on his own.  Kaine has pulled nearly even by succesfully using his popularity in Metro Richmond to pull even there, and has run well so far in Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia.  But if Tim pulls this coalition off, it will be by the skin of his teeth, while McDonnell is doing it like no Republican other than John Warner has ever done before. 

Democrats concerned with McDonnell's conservative views should take note.  If this coalition holds through election day, Republicans will have a new plan that is virtually unbeatable and will elect even very conservative candidates.  There is no Democratic countermove to a Republican coalition that includes a significant number of Hampton Roads African Americans, and moderate suburbanites concerned about crime and safety.  In twelve days, Bob McDonnell may just change Virginia politics for a long time.

Comments

[plunge]

Yes, Attorney General! Right on! I agree!

What?

[NoVA-9]

Great post NLS!!!

concise and informative as always :) LoL

[Not Bob McDonnell]

Hmmm.

Alberto Gonzales?
John Ashcroft?
Janet Reno?
Kimba Woods?
Zoe Baird?
William Barr?
Dick Thonrburg?
Ed Meese?
William French Smith?
Benjamin Civiletti?
Griffin Bell?
Edward Levi (not Levy)?
William Saxby?
Elliot Richardson?
Richard Kleindienst?
John Mitchell?
Ramsey Clark?
Nicholas deB. Katzenbach
Bobby Kennedy?

Judith Jagdmann?
Jerry Kilgore?
Mark Early?
Jim Gilmore?
Mary Sue Terry?

Am I getting close?

[Not Erwin Rommel]

Personally, I've always been tickled by the practice of addressing the AG with the title "General." How could anyone call Jerry Kilgore "General" with a straight face?

[Riley, Not O'Reilly]

Okay, I'm nailed. I'm the mystery AG.

[S Pi]

What is just as odd, Not Erwin Rommel, is that the plural is "Attorneys General." That suggests that "General" isn't a rank, it's a description (say, as opposed to "Specific"). That would make sense, given their broad range of responsibilities. Still, the shorthand for addressing them is "General X." Doesn't seem to make much sense to me. Can anyone shed some light on this one? Jaded JD, I'm looking in your direction....

[NOt Erwin Rommel]

NLS is bound to spank us soon, since he's now posted the substantive piece he was working on under this title. Still, I can't resist adding to S Pi's comment.

You're right, of course. But how much more ironic. No one, given Kilgore's lack of any concrete proposals on any important issue, could call him "Specific" Kilgore.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Oh, this is so funny, I didn't realize some of it was posted. How much could you guys see? OK, the comments on the actual piece begin here.

[plunge]

I really don't see McDonnell taking that much of a lead on election day in Hampton Roads, though he may already be far enough ahead so that even a large dropoff will still leave him victorious on Eday. I have a feeling the Pilot will endorse him, but even given that, I have a feeling that nameID is pulling McD much farther ahead than partyID will ultimately allow for. Most voters there have no doubt heard about him plenty, and mostly decent stuff, but never actually had to pull an R in the ballot box for him.

Still, I think the Deeds campaign sorely neglected Hampton Roads for too long, and it could well cost them big.

Luckily for Deeds, the Kilgore campaign operation there is probably among the worst in the state, only getting a boost in the final days as the RNC basically "latterally fires" the deadwood of the Kilgore staff and scrambles to put things in some semblance of an order. They may have done too much damage already though: they basically alienated the Chesapeake Republicans and let McDonnell folks drive the campaign: which has created a Republican campaign in Hampton Roads bizarrely more focused on the AG race than the governor's race.

[GinterParked]

Though I'm disappointed with the numbers, the analysis is strong, for this campaign. But, I think your last note...

"There is no Democratic countermove to a Republican coalition that includes a significant number of Hampton Roads African Americans, and moderate suburbanites concerned about crime and safety."

... begs the question.

The AG race has largely been devoid of the social issue posturing present in the gubernatorial race. McDonnell may win big this year, but if he does and runs in '09, he'll have to take stands that alarm moderate suburbanites. Without getting too catty, it's possible that even then he might get some questions about the strength of his memory.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Oh, I agree ginter, I am saying there is no countermove to someone who can hold that coalition. McDonnell's "memory" could break it later, no doubt.

[ZB]

If you trust the ONE poll that shows McDonnell up by 9, this is a reasonable argument.

However, the latest Rassmussen poll (which seems to be mirroring other polls more closely than that M-D poll) has the race within 4%. Not bad for an AG candidate.

If Senator Deeds were in a Monty Python skit, he'd be "I'm not yet dead Fred"

[ZB is a god]

That's totally true, ZB.

Bob McDonnell can't gun ration his way to victory can he?

Gun owners, beware: Bob McDonnell is coming for you!

[not likely]

A massive favorite? I love when a faux pundit declares a landslide based on one poll. Maybe NLS hasn't been reading the papers lately, but the heat is being turned up on McDonnell. Violations of campaign finance law, getting slammed for misleading ads, and the national scene all add up to potential problems for McDonnell. Add to that Deeds' unprecedented (for a democrat)support by sportsmen groups and this will shape up to be a close one. Down-ballot races are more volatile than the top of the ticket and only someone with either an agenda or an axe to grind would make sweeping pronnouncements based on one poll.

[ZB]

Thanks for the elevation. I'm not a God---though I am a disgraced former President of the Galaxy and I do have two heads.

And I'm gonna enjoy a round of pan galactic gargle blasters when Attorney General Deeds makes NLS reduce his "accuracy" rating even further, by threat of prosecution :)

[gophokie]

I personally have not seen a Rasmussen poll on the downticket races, but I agree that we are putting a little too much stock in this poll.
There was a poll out a few weeks ago that had Kaine leading 46-34 in the Shenandoah Valley. That is completely ridiculous. I too am surprised that McDonnell has a 26 point lead in Hampton Roads, but I imagine he will do better than most GOPs there.

[The Jaded JD]

I was told my name had been invoked here, so, like Mighty Mouse, here I am.

S Pi,

Indeed, your suspicions are correct. The phrase "Attorney General" dervies from the Norman French that permeated the common law after the Norman Conquest in 1066. In French, as many know, often adjectives follow their nouns rather than proceed them as in English. An attorney-general, as opposed to an attorney-special, was an agent representing his principal in all things, rather than within a limited field of delegated agency. (The origin of "attorney" is rooted in agency law (as anyone who has granted a "power of attorney" knows), so it's no surprise that this relationship is derived from agency law.)

Attorney-generals (and in England where hyphenations are more common that's the proper pluraliz/sation) eventually became the agent of the sovereign to represent the sovereign in all courts generally (as opposed to particular courts specially), which is how the term got its legal context. In American English, hyphenation is less common, so the Attorney-general became the Attorney General. Accordingly, the pluralization became Attorneys General because, obviously, there is a multiple of attorneys, not a multiple of generals.

Referring to an attorney general as "General" is truncation due to laziness. While addressed "The Honorable John Smith, Attorney General of Virginia," an attorney general is properly saluted "Mr. Smith," or "Attorney General Smith." But who follows protocol anymore, anyway?

[The Jaded JD]

Erm, yes, I mean "precede" not "proceed."

[Anonynon]

Deeds has the NRA endorsement, if he were pro-life too, he would probably have my vote. McDonnell is such a doofus.