Open Thread

What are you hearing?

Lowell Fulk has a plane flying over the JMU Homecoming game with a "Lowell Fulk for Delegate" banner.  Cute.  I've always wondered when the first candidate would go negative with a plane banner...

Rumors are flying around that Dick Black is in trouble.  Of course these same rumors flew around in 2001 and 2003....

A few rating changes coming up

42nd District:  Change from "Leans Republican" to "Slight Lean Republican"
75th District:  Change from "Leans Democratic" to "Toss Up"
67th District:  We're settled on "Toss Up"

Comments

[Dan]

Black is getting desperate and has sent out attack mailers saying Poisson is "anti-seniors". Hopefully Poisson can win it.

Is there any reason that you seem to never mention what is happening in the 32nd?

[Not Larry Sabato]

I have to be honest, I think the 32nd and 75th is where I have the least sources, and get the most sparotic information

[tooconservative]

Come on Ben-Craddock has the upper hand on the ground in the 67th.

He wins the sign war, the phone war, and the d2d war.

[tierpfleger]

Republitarian.com would have been a more effective banner.

[Not Larry Sabato]

I totally agree. Republitarian has done more for Lowell's campaign then Lowell's manager

[Bwana]

Now that would be the way for Lohr-Fulk to decide their election...air to air combat in the airspace over Bridgeforth Stadium.

Now that would be entertainment for the tailgaters!!

Ben, Dave Marsden was at my door this week. I did what you suggested, and tried to look deep into his soul. I think I was succesful, and I have to say he's my candidate now.

[republitarian550]

That's not fair to Davis. He hasn't been able to do what we've done. We were campaign wreckers before he even knew who we were. Davis has done a better job than Audrey, everyone knows that and that garbage that H-burg dems have given you is not true about Davis.

NLS...If Davis's job has been bad then what should he have done differently that would have made a difference?

When can we expect posts about the 42nd and 75th? I'm curious of what's going on there that's caused you to shift the ratings.

[Republican i n t h e 7 5 7]

NLS...please please write something on the 91st district race...things are heating up big time here...wondering about what your thoughts were and others....

[Used2Bneutral]

TC,
How about the TV war (the story on Channel 4 last Sunday morning, the ads on all those cable channels continuously, the latest Craddock Campaign trouble story on Channel 8 and now even CNN), the Newspapers war (including the reports picked up by the AP Thursday and Friday), the web sites war (todays latest daily updates on http://www.ChrisCraddock-lies are wild and thats where the press gets their facts and new stories), the tracking polls, and especially the credible endorsements from everybody that counts including republicans... what really counts most of all is the voters and from my neighbors who had yard signs from Craddock, 3 have taken them down and shredded them and it only took giving them a copy of the un-edited DVD of the Westfields debate where Chris made a fool of himself.... I hear his people won't let him out anymore because they can't trust him or are scared he might be asked a hard question and get caught lying again say something stupid once more. In fact his people completely canceled his and or his campaign managers surogate appearence at Chantilly HS Thursday, both Caputo and Eby showed and talked.... seems Thursdays are really bad days for Chris, infact every Thursday since the speeding ticket on the 29th of September. I can't wait to see what happens next Thursday, because I know what is going to happen on the the following Tuesday the 8th.

Also it is very interesting at the amount of serious Republican money there is coming in to support Caputo if you recognize the names on VPAP site.

Ben, a Toss-up is fair and keeps the Caputo people from getting over confident.... but you know where the momentum is and I saw the press taking lots of pictures of Caputo with Kaine, Kate Hanley, Leslie Byrne and many others at the pep rally in Centreville today, Saturday. The sign war is back firing with private citizens taking down everybody's signs and I only hope that Craddock's brother Brian tries to push me around like he did to one of the Caputo young staffers a couple of weeks ago, according to the police report. Maybe they can get simultaneous court dates with the republican official that intentionally jumped the curb in Tysons and got arrested for an actual hit and run on the 60+ year old democratic protester at the Rove / Kilgore thing.

This has been a really ugly campaign. Even Reese's family members were concerned after some threats of physical violence from Craddock supporters and this is from a "Christian Minister" or at least the people who supposedly work for and represent him ??? maybe some were still high on drugs, oh darn, that was proven in court wasn't it..... oh and the pathetic ROBO call I got from Craddock's wife that sounded just like she used the same script that Golden's wife used also for the last ditch efforts they are both trying to get the sympathy vote from. Why can't Chris talk to the issues without it sounding like a totally scripted spin meister's manufactured speech. Man, I really don't want to see him representing my family in Richmond.

[notvirgilgoode]

new post on the blog of Notvirgil...watch where the last minute contributions are going...there are some very interesting numbers

NLS, could you please do a post listing all of the uncalled races and where they stand?

[saywhat??]

Good heavens, I am a big fan of Republitarian but most voters have NOT heard of him. So it is very disrespectful -- and blog egocentric -- to say he's done more for Fulk than Davis.

I think NLS must have some personal beef with or jealousy of Davis. NLS will occasionally mention a specific against Davis, but it's usually something silly, not something substantive.

Hey that might be a good Lohr slogan: "Something silly, not something substantive."

[tooconservative]

Used2beneutral...

CNN? yea right.

-When/where was the police report?

Caputo's young staffer...Scott Seymour? Who is 19? Brian Craddock is not much older. and no police report was filed.

The lies in the Caputo campaign are just becoming absurd and revolting.
It was a Caputo supporter who SLASHED a Craddock family member's tire.

The lies are just sick.

usedtobe-normal?

Your posts are always so rediculous, and I know for a fact that you created the Chriscraddock-lies website. Big deal, Gary Reese (a very sore loser) backs Caputo- is that really a surprise to anyone?
And why are you whining about some redicuclous sign drama as if anyone is going to care? The only thing people around here care about are issues, not speeding tickets, signs, and all the other crap you keep trying to put up on your website that NOONE CARES ABOUT.
Get used to it, Chris Craddock will be your delegate.
On a sidenote, I would like you to know that I think you are a psycho and instead of updating hateful websites and spreading lies, you should seek help, seriously.

PS: I wouldnt threaten Craddock's brother. I have seen you personally, and I have seen him. You'd lose.

[Not Karl Rove]

RE: The 75th...

This will come down to turnout. Both campaigns have been running ground campaigns from day 1. Saunders hit the radio first with an ad on the Paul Councill endorsement (including Councill audio.) Tyler has responded with a sour grapes ad. There was a debate in Wakefield last Thursday not carried on any tv or radio but covered by the weekly newspapers in the area. As expected, Saunders was more polished but there were no real surprises until Tyler's closing remarks in which she urged voters to vote for her as the most experienced candidate (implying she's proud of her 11 years of questionable service on the Sussex Board of Supervisors which led to a grand jury investigation and no charges but a conclusion of mismanagement by the entire board) INSTEAD OF THE GOOD OLD BOY SYSTEM. Both candidates had agreed to avoid negative campaigning. Despite the coded racial slur, Saunders did not reply in kind or call her on the tame violation of the agreement. This may juice up his supporters a bit, but it's still a bottom line ground war and will be determined by turnout and the percentage of black vote Saunders is able to draw. He seems to have solidified the conservative Democrat base he needed to put this race into play.

[Used2Bneutral]

TC,
In law enforcement interrogation technigues there are simple little traps that usually work real well on an emotional or really inexperienced subject.... your posts are among the best examples of non-denial denials I've seen in a long time...But, thanks for confirming the physical confrontation situation that was also witnessed by the other young campaign worker in the car who called the police when it took place. There doesn't have to be a formal complaint initiated for a report to be filed. Isn't this more than a little pathetic to get to this level of confrontation ??? over campaign signs ??? Reese's people documented several similar situations and it kinda went by the way.

As for your anonymous compatriot, you obviously must think I am someone else, NLS knows who I am. But I can tell you for absolute sure that I have nothing to do with the http://www.ChrisCraddock-lies.com website.... for lots of legal reasons I couldn't and wouldn't be involved. But, I will say I am proud of whomever it is doing it because they have been very careful and are obviously documenting and referencing every story and fact to government data bases and public information. As for physical violence, thats not my speed, at 57 it has been a while since I earned my belts in Karate and Judo. It is a lot easier to use the legal system the way it's supposed to be done. These kinds of tactics by uncontrolled staffers or family members can only be described as the actions of thugs.... those tactics always lose.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Let me respond to everyone at once:

Anon 10:24- Have you lost your mind? What happened?

Republitarian and Say What- I've never met the guy. I'm just telling you what I am hearing, almost unanimously from local Democrats involved in that race. I get more emails on that race with people upset with Lowell's staff then any other.

Anon 11:07- I will do a complete update tomorrow.

Not Karl Rove- That's excellent analysis of what is going on in the 75th. I understand a recent poll has the race tied now, which is a complete collapse in that heavy Dem district.

Too Conservative- I'm not responding to you because of the picture up on your website. I'm very upset with you.

Used2BeNeutral- I've known Chuck longer than any other candidate running for House this year. I have to admit to being appalled by how negative he is letting this get.

[republitarian550]

Yeah, I know who they are too, Ben. They don't think Lowell is liberal enough. When was the last time any of them won a state seat in this town? They need to critize after Lowell loses and eat crow and hire Davis after Lowell wins.

[Simon]

What's going on with the Dudley / Ferguson race?

[VaSeniorCit]

Well put Used2Bneutral..you make sense to me. Chuck Caputo has not run a dirty campaign. Tell me how Chuck is letting this get negative. GoTo chriscraddock-lies..all these facts can be referenced. How could a craddock supporter justify craddock's behavior? I want honesty in government.

[VaSeniorCit]

TooConservative...that pic on your site is sick. Did you think it is funny!

[tooconservative]

I like the picture...

Ben-forgive me.

[Knowthe26th]

I don't know Davis, but I'm willing to take a very educated guess that he has not done anything wrong. First off, his resume indicates he is young and inexperienced, which in all likelihood is why Fulk wanted him. Fulk thinks he knows more about campaigns than he does, and I would guess that anything being blamed on Davis is really something being done or not done by Lowell and his wife. Myron, your ego MUST be deflated soon before it explodes and get 'ego' all over the Valley. You're not a campaign wrecker, and most people that do know you consider you to be a fruitcake.

[9th Observer]

Ferguson Dudley race is getting heated. Dudley announced that in 2003, Ferguson voted for him. Ferguson turned around and used a public forum to say, "I may have made a lot of mistakes in my life, some big, some small, but voting for Allen Dudley is not a mistake I ever made."

At the same forum, Allen Dudley threatened Ferguson, saying Vince Callahan had an Irish temper and you never knew what he would do?

Based on the premature announcement of Vince's death earlier this summer, I don't think the Ferguson camp is worried.

Ferguson camp is having problems getting their signs stolen.

Someone put a Ferguson bumper sticker on Allen Dudley's car and he drove around all day with it.

Dudley has twice threatened a lawsuit over www.AllenDudley.com and the Ferguson campa also launched www.fireallendudley.com

NLS: Are you guys referring to the Kilgore-Connaughton-Davis picture or the Stalin-Byrne picture?

:)

[Not Larry Sabato]

I'm refering to the Stalin-Byrne pic. :0

I wouldn't worry about that picture Ben. They used Leslie's head to cover up Bob McDonell's. Bill Bolling couldn't attend the meeting with Stalin, he was busy raiding a corporation.

[Simon]

9th Observer

Thanks for the update on Dudley / Ferguson. The bumper sticker thing is funny to me. As far as AllenDudley.com goes, Allen has no one but himself (and his staffers) to be upset with. Allen should have had that domain years ago. What’s really sad is that the spoof site is done better than Allen’s real site.

I visit that district a ton and have heard that an upset is brewing. The people I know there think Allen has taken the seat for granted and isn’t really trying to get re-elected.

Do you know if the district has changed, or are people just fed up? Is Dudley trying?

[republitarian550]

I'd rather be a nut...I hate fruitcake.

As for the Kilgore picture on TC- its clear the man is not gay. Only straight dorky guys would hike up their pants in such a way.

[saywhat??]

So the Davis criticsm is coming from Dems in the 26th? That's a laugher. Now I know where the pettiness and jealousy is coming from.

The Hburg Rock Dems have, after all, won so many races for the GA themselves. Certainly Davis, who's done some time in Richmond with people who've actually WON elections, has nothing on them.

Man, NLS, get some new sources down here.

Davis, you rule.

[tooconservative]

I stand by both pictures.

Leslie is on Lenins body.

[Simon]

Blame the public schools or blame an unmotivated student while he was there, but...

I did not know that was Stalin. So fear not NLS, many of us our too stupid to be offended.

Too be honest, I didn’t know that was Leslie Byrne either.

Reports out of Loudoun are that Dick Black is hiring day laborers to put up signs. Apparently there are pictures ... NLS, what have you heard?

Reports out of Loudoun are that Dick Black is hiring day laborers to put up signs. Apparently there are pictures ... NLS, what have you heard?

[Knowthe26th]

Also, Ferguson got a massive last minute cash infusion from the State Party. $15K. They have to know something...

[Knowthe26th]

Also, Ferguson got a massive last minute cash infusion from the State Party. $15K. They have to know something...

[Dan]

To the anon who wrote about Black and the day laborers that is hilarious. Where did you hear that?

[BlackOut2005]

Yes, yes. Please do tell, anon. We do know that Mr. Black is short-handed this year. Because of some spat over HCA hospital with Patrick Henry College Prez Mike Ferris, Black is not getting any PHC student volunteers as he has in the past.

[Republican i n t h e 7 5 7]

All Right...NLS...since you won't listen to me about how the 91st district race is heating up...here you go-the Daily Press' endorsement of Gilliland-NOT GEAR!

91st District-
Randy Gilliland offers solutions, Tom Gear only obstacles

October 19, 2005

Challenger Randy Gilliland offers the people of the 91st District something incumbent Tom Gear does not: representation that will work in their interests, that will use the legislative process in Richmond to solve real needs at home in Hampton, Poquoson and York County.

Gilliland, who is running as an independent, demonstrates a better-informed understanding of what those needs are and of what obligations elected representatives have to address those needs when they assemble in Richmond - of how they should be working with, not against, localities. He has the skills, motivation and mind-set to understand their problems and come up with effective solutions. He knows how to work with the people who get things done in Richmond.

Gear, in contrast, has carved out a niche as an obstacle to meeting needs and solving problems. Ultimately, that makes him an obstacle to the ability of his constituent communities to get the help they need from Richmond.

Gear, a Republican, was steadfast in opposition to the 2004 bipartisan budget compromise that brought millions of dollars into local schools, that rescued Virginia's credit rating so the state can continue to borrow money at money-saving rates, and that Virginians resoundingly support with good reason: It enabled the critical apparatus of government to go forward. Gilliland supports the compromise.

Opposition is the name of Gear's game. He takes a political philosophy to such extreme it threatens both good sense and good government.

He opposes any and all tax increases. Without taxes, of course, government cannot deliver the services that are part of its contract with its citizens - essential services such as schools, roads and bridges, police and air pollution monitoring. Gear's intransigence gathers such a head of steam that it amounts, in the end, to hostility - to public education, to public safety, to public transportation, to the public. He offers voters nothing but the delusion of government on the cheap.

Gilliland offers solutions. He has demonstrated that in Hampton by, for example, spearheading formation of a finance committee that devised a mechanism for evaluating major city projects and tracking their performance - the kind of practical approach that tries to channel taxpayers' investments in smart directions. He isn't afraid to challenge, as he showed when he asked hard questions about the Power Plant development and conference center.

Gilliland doesn't come without baggage. He must take responsibility for his role as one of the majority of four responsible for firing former City Manager George Wallace. However necessary it became to resolve the untenable situation that arose as relations between the new council majority and its chief employee deteriorated, the bungled handling of that firing has had negative consequences for Hampton, and it has cost Gilliland support in the black community.

But Gear's baggage mounts to more troubling dimensions. Typical of his intemperate rhetoric and disregard for localities is what happened when a desperate Isle of Wight County Board of Supervisors criticized a group of legislators, including Gear, for failing to honor the state's commitment to fund education at an agreed-upon level. When the 2004 budget compromise, which Gear opposed, sent more money to local schools, the Isle of Wight board appropriately adjusted the county's contribution to schools to reflect the fact that it no longer had to pay so much of the state's share, which prompted this rude retort from Gear: He called the board a "bunch of thieves" who "should be horsewhipped and run out of town."

That's not the kind of representation that benefits the people of the 91st District - who also care about education, and transportation, public safety, the environment and other issues that depend upon the legislature to make adequate provision through budgets, regulations and laws.

Gear's actions have, at other times, ill-served his constituents and civil governance as well. He embarrassed Poquoson, but mainly himself, by accusing Gov. Mark Warner of political extortion following Hurricane Isabel. He voted in favor of legislation that would shut the public out of the legislature, so it couldn't see what government was up to, and against common-sense seat-belt legislation. He combines a refusal to be informed with a kamikaze verbal style ill-suited to a body where relationships get things done.

The voters of the 91st District deserve better. They will find it in Randy Gilliland.