A look back at the 51st

The second in a series looking back at each competitive house race.

The 51st district has a special place in Republican Party history.  In the 1997 elections Republicans entered as a 53-46-1 minority party.  Even with the Gilmore statewide sweep, Republicans were only able to net two seats... leaving them just short at a 51-48-1 minority.  In a bold move, Jim Gilmore appointed Democratic Delegate David Brickley into his administration and called a special election in his Prince William House seat.  Fresh off an almost 2-1 Gilmore victory here Republicans nominated local Supervisor Michele McQuigg who won a landslide victory to bring the House of Delegates to 50-49-1.  With Lacey Putney's decision to caucus with the GOP the end of the Democratic majority came with McQuigg's election.

Since then Michele has cruised to re-election every other November.

Democrats had early hopes here after nominating Georgetown University employee Earnie Porta.  Porta kept fundraising competitive and was a fairly articulate first time candidate.  He and his staff had some original campaign ideas, including a race to Washington that we covered here that got good local media coverage.

This seat had been leaning Republican until recent elections where both Mark Warner and John Kerry suddenly secured over 49% of the vote.  Those elections made some people believe the 51st would have an upset this year.

The final results here:

Michele McQuigg 8,313 (54%)
Earnie Porta 7,107 (46%)

Breaking the 51st district into three parts:
---------------------------------------------------------
Occoquan District- 60% of the District

Kaine    54.9%
Kilgore  45.1%

Porta       45.5%
McQuigg  54.5%

Porta 9.4% BEHIND Kaine
-----------------------------------------------------------
Coles District- 25% of the District

Kaine    52.0%
Kilgore  48.0%

Porta      43.5%
McQuigg 56.5%

Porta 8.5% BEHIND Kaine
------------------------------------------------------------
Neabsco and Woodbridge District: 15% of the District

Kaine   60.2%
Kilgore 39.8%

Porta      55.0%
McQuigg  45.0%

Porta 5.2% BEHIND Kaine
-----------------------------------------------------------

Overall, it looks like the environment for Democrats was as good as it has ever been here.  Tim Kaine won, and won by a good margin in every magisterial district in this House district.  His 1500 vote margin gave Democrats multiple options of coalitions to defeat McQuigg, and they couldn't do it.

Every precinct in the Occoquan District is in the 51st district, and that is where both Porta and McQuigg live.  This is also the district that McQuigg represented as a Supervisor.  McQuigg is legendary here for going door to door every year in a large straw hat to sit on porches and talk to people about their concerns, she has been doing it at every level as an elected official.  It's particularly effective because people see that hat all over the district, and so she stays in people's minds even when she isn't at their door.  "The hat lady!". 

It's no surprise that this is where McQuigg saw her greatest performance over her ticket.  The 9.4% out-performance is large, but that's only one side, so the margin is actually double that.  Kaine at a 9.8% win here and McQuigg at a 9% win makes the difference in margin 18.8%.  That's huge!  Here's what happened here (approx.):

Occoquan District- 60% of the Electorate
Kaine/Porta 43.5%
Kilgore/Porta 2.0%
Kaine/McQuigg 11.4%
Kilgore/McQuigg 43.1%

Another 1/4 of the 51st is in the Coles district.  These precincts were added along with Occoquan to keep the district Republican even in a year like this.  Well, as happened in most of Northern Virginia this year, the Republican precincts were the ones that saw the most growth to Tim Kaine.  So Tim actually gave Earnie Porta a dream environment here, at 52% of the vote.  But Porta finished 8.5%  behind Kaine, again when you double that for margin, Porta trailed Kaine by 17% margin here.  There is just no excuse for that outside of McQuigg's old base. 

Here in Coles, with the large margins again, the results were (approx):

Coles District- 25% of the Electorate
Kaine/Porta 41.5%
Kilgore/Porta 2.0%
Kaine/McQuigg 10.5%
Kilgore/McQuigg 46.0%

The final 1/6 of the 41st is in sprinkled with two small precincts in Neabsco district, and two small precincts in Woodbridge district.  These are the only two districts represented by Democrats on the Board of Supervisors and that organization made a difference for Porta on election day.  However, while his trailing Tim Kaine by 5.2% (10.4% margin) was an improvement, it was still unacceptable for a candidate who wanted to get elected.  Had Porta managed to stay within 5.2% district-wide, he still would have barely lost. 

However in the context of the margin in other districts this one didn't seem so bad for Porta.  The results were (approx):

Neabsco and Woodbridge Districts- 15% of the Electorate
Kaine/Porta  53.0%
Kilgore/Porta  2.0%
Kaine/McQuigg  7.2%
Kilgore/McQuigg 37.8%
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When we first rated this race and called it "Likely Republican" we got a lot of flack from people who said McQuigg was safe, "Always had been, always will be".  We described the scenario that would leave her vulnerable to a possible upset, and Porta had every one of those things break to him.  Democrats can not complain here because their best chance for the next decade was served up, and they missed it.

How much of this can be blamed on Porta's sexual harassment lawsuit that broke in September?  It's hard to tell, but our guess is he would not have won even without that.  A campaign that has the goodwill it needs to win can survive one hit like that.  We called the race over at that point because Porta was already behind, and had not built the goodwill to survive it, and it looks like that was right on the money.

If you travel into the 51st district in a future election season (be sure to stop at the restaurants on the river, they are all excellent) and run into a local Democrat, you'll likely hear this phrase over and over.  "If we had only done this in 2005"!  Indeed the story of the 51st this year is one of a historic missed opportunity, both by unprepared Democrats, and a Republican who's been working like a dog for 10 years just in case something like this ever happened.  This is one of those cases where its fair to blame the Democrats and give the incumbent the credit she deserves at the same time.

Comments

NLS, is this food thing a new feature?

[AWCheney]

Michele has not just hit every door in Occoquan District; she has been to every door in the 51st House District multiple times, often, if not always, in the same election period. Her constituents know her by first name and a solid majority is not, nor will it ever be, unusual for her. This may be because her attitude, when it is suggested she should not expend all that energy every election going door-to-door in a district she has made safe, is that she will never take the election or the electorate for granted. Now THAT'S an attitude many incumbents should consider emulating.

Dave Albo did that - except he stayed away from the mexicans because they hate him

[ZB]

McQuigg is gonna retire (at the end of this term, most likely) and this seat will be very competitive. If the GOP nominates a Harry Parrish type moderate, they may hold it. If they nominate a Jeff Frederick type, the Democrats will win it in a race similar to the 41st and 67th.

[Goodwin]

Great analysis of my home district, NLS! One typo though- Michele replaced Delegate David Brickely- not Brinkley.

[Goodwin]

More typos. It's Brickley. Not Brickely. And still not Brinkley. Happy 30 Days of Christmas everyone!

Earnie Porta was a nobody going into this election.

McQuigg is well known, and despite rhetoric to the contrary, works her ass off day in & day out.

If the dems want to win this seat, they'll need to put up someone with roots who is active in the community - and not just for 6 months before he or she announces.

Over the past few years, was Porta regularly at school board meetings, BOCS meetings, did he have letters to the editor every month speaking out on issues & solutions, was he active in numerous known civic organizations, did he sponsor teams, etc.?

No. And until the dems find a candidate like that with good ideas and a good personality too, they will continue to lose to Workhorse McQuigg.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Thanks Goodwin, its fixed now.

[Not Corey Stewart]

After considering a run against Sean "RINO" Connaughton, I think I will instead run for the 51st in 2007, as it will be open when Del. McQuigg retires.

Please look for me to work with Supervisor Nohe more often in the next year, as I position myself for this run.

[Veronique Wyvell]

From: Veronique Wyvell
To: ElectEarnie@earnieporta.com
Cc: Veronique Wyvell
Sent: Thursday, December 14, 2006 11:10 AM
Subject: Swigging McQuigg?

Michele McQuigg's performance as "Madam Chairman" in the Friday, December 1, 2006, 8:30 a.m., House Room C, General Assembly Building, House Committee for Courts of Justice & Senate Committee for Courts of Justice, JUDICIAL INTERVIEWS for incumbent judges standing for re-election in the 2007 Session was frightful. Did McQuigg perhaps enjoy one too many swigs the night before? I wondered. It is time for Virginia's 51st to seriously consider new leadership. To the people of District 51, I say YOU ARE NOT IN GOOD HANDS.

Veronique Wyvell, RN
MAUL ~ Mothers Against Unjust Law
7831 Enola Street, #TA7
McLean, Virginia 22102
Tel 703.748.0072
VWyvell@patriot.net