33rd Senatorial Special Election

The field has begun to clear for Dick Black's son in law, Supervisor Mick Staton to become the new Senator from the 33rd District.  We've heard that Supervisor Staton has drawn the support of two GOP colleagues from the Board of Supervisors, and may be the first recipient of help from the newly formed RSVP PAC (Republican Senate Victory PAC) that is dedicated to electing more conservative GOP Senators to change the leadership.


One local school board member is also testing the GOP waters, as well as local GOP Chairman Randy Minchew.

Democrats are trying to get Independent Chairman Scott York to run as a Democrat for the seat.  York is a conservative Republican, who became an Independent over growth issues, so this talk has split the Democrats here. 

In a special election, turnout is the key, and Staton has to be seen as the early favorite, both in a GOP Caucus and in the special election.

Developing...

UPDATE:  Staton now has 3 Supervisors on board.  Eugene Delgaudio, Steve Snow and Bruce Tulloch.  Democrats better get there act together quick if they want this seat that Tim Kaine and Leslie Byrne just carried.

UPDATE #2- Supervisor Lori Waters is pissed off no one is asking her to run.  Umm.... Lori, take a hint....

Comments

This is definitely a funny development. You can bet Dick Black is egging his son-in-law on in some kind of vengance campaign. That is, this is Dick's big F-You to all the folks that deserted him this past November. The 2 unnamed Loudoun supervisers that NLS claims are supporting Mick must be Delgaudio and Snow. This is unsurprising as it is meaningless. With the defeat of Dick Black, anti-Dick Black organizations like BlackOut2005 have made it clear that Delgaudio, Snow and Mick Black...I mean Mick Staton....are their next targets. Mick needs to be sure he can retain his seat on the Loudoun B of S before he sets his sights on the State Senate. Also, everybody knows that Mick would be nothing more than the mouthpiece for the recently emasculated Dick Black. Folks in that area are flat worn out of Dick Black's silly antics and they aren't gonna turn around and elect Dick Black-lite. The candidate to watch is Minchew. He's a mature, articulate, proven leader who commands the respect of Republicans and Democrats. He can rally that district together and carry on the tradition of good represenation started by Mims.

[eileen]

I'm sorry but what kind of glue have you been sniffing? One of the 2 supervisors pushing Staton is none other than professional bigot Eugene Delgaudio, whose tight association with Dick Black aided us in beating Black in the first place. And, absolutely no way is Scott York running as a Democrat!

The man who wins the GOP nomination will be the man who gets Bill Mims' endorsement. That man is not Mick Staton, aka Black Lite. My money is on Randy Minchew.

[Senator Black]

OH YEAH EILEEN- COME AND TAKE IT FROM US BABY. WE DONT ABORT OUR KIDS- SO THERE'S PLENTY MORE BLACKS WHERE THAT CAME FROM TO REPRESENT YOU

[anonymous]

I am sorry ... but what's up with the donation link on the blog?! I guess Ben is going to try and live off of the blog since he can't keep a job. This is sad.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Anonymous, that was a stupid comment. I stole the idea from Chad, to try to pay for the cost of the blog. Since no one has used the donate button, you don't have to worry about me living off of it, LOL.

[not gretchen bulova]

David won't let me donate. I hope he's as tight with the taxpayers as he is with his!

[SE VA MWC Alum]

Since when is this seat up for grabs. Mims hasnt resigned. know there is talk of him being assistant AG under mcdonnell but havent seen where mcdonnell has announced anything yet. seems like a lot of speculation at this point

Not Gretchen Bulova is my favorite new poster on here.

[not gretchen bulova]

Thanks 3:30 anon. That means a lot. I hope I continue to live up to your expectations as David has to mine, if you know what I mean!

[Riley, Not O'Reilly]

Hey, *I* mentioned Lori Waters for this seat over on Too Conservative in our discussion there. She has solid ties with the national conservative movement, similar to those that Jeff Frederick used to catapult himself into the House.

[not gretchen bulova]

sorry Riley, but you are no Too Conservative, please stay off my thread!

[Not Larry Sabato]

Woah, not gretchen, riley is welcome here anytime.

[not gretchen bulova]

sorry, not a good time of the month

Not Gretchen--

Way too much info, honey.

[ZB]

I take it this means McDonnell thinks he's gonna hold on in the recount?

[Not Jack Herrity]

Ben, you are forgetting a very big fish in this race. I agree with you that Staton is the conservatives' obvious choice. But don't underestimate Minchew or this other person. After all, Minchew is the party chair in Loudoun and may just have a hand in determining the method of nomination. If this thing goes primary, Minchew will be very competitive. He is very well-respected in Loudoun.

Think hard. Maybe you'll get it.

[Not Jack Herrity]

By the way, Scott York is not going to run as a Democrat. I hear Chuck Harris is their biggest lead.

If that's the best the Democrats can do, Dave Poisson will be an anomaly in Loudoun.

[Not Larry Sabato]

"If this thing goes primary"

Except primaries are illegal in special elections.

[Jay Hughes]

NLS:

A firehouse primary is legal...that's what happened in the Cuccinelli/Thompson race back in 2002

[Not Larry Sabato]

Jay, a "firehouse primary" is a nickname. What is a firehouse primary? It's an UNASSEMBLED CAUCUS.

[Jay Hughes]

And all this time I thought it was a primary that had to take place in a firehouse

[Jay Hughes]

Ben:

From the Virginia State Board of Elections Website:

A primary may not be called for a special election to fill a vacancy unless the primary is to be held on the regular date set for primaries

[Not as much hair as Jay Hughes]

Nice suit Senator!

[Anon]

Lori Waters is not running. Tulloch, Snow and Delgaudio are supporting Staton, along with (obviously) Dick Black, Bob Marshall, Scott Lingamfelter, Mark Cole, Dale Myers, and Joe Guzman (best school board member in Loudoun).

Randy is well liked personally, but will have an extremely hard time overcoming the conservative coordination already in place for Staton. He also has about a $75K head start on all other potential candidates - plenty of money to run a special on.

Finally, Mick is not subject to much of the more inflammatory rhetoric that stuck to Dick Black in the '05 cycle. He may not be a wonder-firebrand, but he doesn't inspire much in the way of fired up opposition either. He's proceeding effectively, and he'll be VERY well positioned for the GOP nomination if B.McD. wins the recount and Bill Mims joins the AG's office.

[Not Jack Herrity]

Ben, which school board member are you talking about? Andrews?

[Anon]

Yes, Andrews.

[Not Eugene Delgaudio]

I hate to break the news to this crowd, but rank and file Republicans in Loudoun County will have heartburn having the Republican nomination decided by the Black Family Oligarchy. Sounds like something the Kennedy Family would do up in Massachusetts. Also, as a guy who voted for Mick in 2003, I would have heartburn with him leaving the Board of Supervisors before he has followed through on any of the promises made in his 2003 Campaign. Our Loudoun taxes aren't lower, our roads are even more congested, and the stiffling county bureaucracy is not improved. Mick has not even served two years yet in elective office and he now thinks that he deserves the seat in the Upper House by virtue of his father in law's conservative machine?

[Not Larry Sabato]

"A primary may not be called for a special election to fill a vacancy unless the primary is to be held on the regular date set for primaries "

Thank You Jay. Are you proposing this election be put off until June, or admitting you were wrong?

[GOP PHANTOM]

The phone lines keep burning in this Special State Senate Election! Remember Mims won his seat in a Special - knocking off Dick Black before he decided not to challenge Mims in a firehouse primary. IN THE RUNNING ARE - Staton, Clemens, and Andrews (The last two candidates have run county-wide campaigns) - CANDIDATES NOT IN THE RUNNING are York and Minchew (The first is a true Independent and the second has recently made critical mistakes as LC GOP chairman) Contrary to popular opinion, State Senate Specials are expensive - look for 200K
to be spent by the winning candidate. Black will also probably transfer his money left over from his HD race over to Staton.

[Not Jack Herrity]

Phantom, that is incorrect. Minchew is still in the mix. York is not - he'd be dumb to run for that seat. Clemens is also mixing it up, but that seat would be a voluntary demotion in both pay and tenure so who knows whether he'll end up running.

Andrews will not be in the mix for long. Remember that he lost the supervisor's nomination in the '03 GOP convention by one vote - his own.

Staton has the nomination all but locked up from the Black wing. The question is who the moderates will choose: Clemens or Minchew. Don't underestimate either of these guys. They are both where they are today for a reason.

What the GOP in Loudoun has to decide is whether they want another civil war on their hands. I'm guessing they will.

[Loudoun GOP Centrist]

"Not Jack Herrity" is correct: Loudoun GOP Chairman Randy Minchew is definitely in the running and is picking up support from the Centrist Conservative Republicans who predominate Loudoun these days. Unlike other 33rd Senate Republican wannabees, Minchew is really close to Mims (they used to practice law together) and would never start campaigning for the Mims seat until the Senator files his official letter of resignation.

[Mosby's Ghost]

Then perhaps is will be too late......

[Mosby's ghost]

That is what I get for typing with my eyes closed.....

[Not Jack Herrity]

Mosby's got a point. If Minchew wants this race, waiting for the resignation to line up support will lose it. Staton may only have lined up the most conservative boys so far, but often the commitments go to he who asks first.

[eileen]

The best endorsement comes from Mims himself which he only does when and if he resigns. For a Dukie, Randy Minchew is a very smart and respectful man. Of course, he'll wait until Mims actually resigns. And Randy will, of course, gain Mims' endorsement. I'd even be willing to bet (even though I am myself a Terp), that Randy has seriously considered a run for office before. He can easily afford to respectfully wait for the recount and Mims' decision.

[anon]

it has been confirmed by numerous GOP sources in loudou n that Dick Black is running for this seat, not Stanton. Stanton is rumored to be considering a run against Poisson in 07, as is Andrews.

[Mosby's Ghost]

Oh Eileen, so naive. It must be hard to hate from so far away.

Minchew IS making support calls and reaching out to other legislators to talk about options. I think he wants an office, but not the Mims seat. Think Joe May, think appointment, think shoe in.

If May takes an appointment at VDOT, Minchew could waltz into that position without a fight with anyone. It makes more sense.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Mosby, good to see you back again.

[SE VA MWC Alum]

So what does kaine have to gain by appointing joe may to VDOT-wouldnt he appoint someone from a swing district where the dems have a chance of a pick up? Remember Gilmore and Charles Waddell??

[ZB]

Joe May's seat is winnable. Especially if a strong Democratic candidate---say Mark Herring---runs.

[Not Jack Herrity]

ZB, now I know you're on crack. Herring can't beat Joe May. He couldn't even beat Russ Potts, and we all saw how well he polls.

[GOP PHANTOM]

As I said in my recent post, Minchew is NOT IN THE RUNNING for the State Senate Special - NJH and LGOPC have the wrong campaign - Minchew is interested in the May seat if and when it opens up - Although they will be trying, No DEM could win this seat. In the State Senate Special, Mims will NOT support any candidate in the GOP selection process.

[LoudounCentristConservative]

OK, the dust has finally settled. Between information learned from the RPV Advance at the Homestead, Kaine's appearance at the Leesburg Airport, and from attendees at a meeting of the McDonnell for AG Committee in Richmond, here's the latest:

1) Sugarland Run District Supervisor Mick Staton and not his father-in-law Dick Black will seek the Republican nomination for the 33rd. Despite the fact that Mims has not even unequivocably stated that we would give up his seat, the Black-Staton Family has their candidate and it is Mick. Mims is strongly disliked by the Black-Staton Family for his centrist views and would have been challenged anyway by the Loudoun's First UberConservative Family in 2007 anyway. Staton has lined up a lot of endorsements courtesy of Dick Black's telephone work and has the support of Sterling District Supervisor Eugene Delgaudio and a few others on Loudoun's pro-developer Republican Board of Supervisors.

2)Loudoun GOP Chairman Minchew is also clearly in the running and would be a very strong Republican candidate, but is being way too deferential to his longtime friend Senator Bill Mims and has not formally declared, formed his exploratory committee, sought out any endorsements, etc. Come on, Randy; This is politics! Forget the political ethics and nice guy stuff and go for it.

3)The Democrats have a very weak bench in the 33rd and would first try to lure Independent Board Chairman Scott York to accept the Democratic nomination. If that doesn't work, the Dems would try to recruit former Democratic Board member Chuck Harris (who lost to Republican Lori Waters in 2003) or former Democratic candidate Jim Kelly (who lost to Republican Delegate Tom Rust in 2003).

4)While a Minchew-Herring race for the Joe May District seat would be a marquee contest between the best that both parties have to offer, it will not happen as Delegate Joe May will not be leaving his House seat anytime soon. May has seniority, clout, the chairmanship of the Science and Technology Committee and vice-chairmanship of the Transportation Committee, and can write his own ticket anywhere on Capitol Hill.

5)McDonnell and Mims will stay out of the Republican nominating event, but everyone knows where their hearts are.

[Another 2 cents]

Loudoun Centrist Conservative is as wrong as the oxymoron of his name. Staton and Black don't dislike Mims and Staton has never planned to run against Mims in '07 in a primary.

Minchew is not a strong candidate and has never held public office. He also, as party Chair, allowed the Democrats to sweep every race in Loudoun for the first time in decades. Not exactly stellar credentials to use to launch a political campaign.

Add to the mix the fact that he is a land use attorney and will be savaged on the growth issue and the verdict is Minchew is unelectable.

Staton has the Conservative base in his corner which turns out in special elections, and is respected throughout the party. He is the man to hold this seat should Mims step down (or up, one should say, to the A.G.'s office)

[Jill Forlines]

I would respectfully suggest that "Another 2 cents" avoid trying to put the blame on the 2005 election results on GOP Chairman Minchew and review some data.

First, check out:

http://www.sbe.state.va.us/web_docs/election/results/2003/nov/detail107.htm#08H032

This shows you that Delegate Dick Black in 2003 won convincingly all five of the Sugarland Run District precincts headed up by his son-in-law, Supervisor Mick Staton.

Next, go to:

http://sbe.vipnet.org/nov2005/detail107.htm#08032

This shows you that only two short years later in 2005, Delegate Dick Black lost convincingly all five of the Sugarland Run District precincts headed up by his son-in-law, Supervisor Mick Staton. In that election, Supervisor Staton went door-to-door throughout his district with his father-in-law and both gentlemen were throughly rebuffed by the voters in all precincts within Staton's home district.

While the truth on occasion really hurts, I think these data show that the citizens of eastern Loudoun County have had enough political leadership by the the Black Family. If the Republicans want to hold on to this Senate seat, it needs to read the writing on the wall.