A look back at the 26th

The fifth in a series looking back at each competitive house race.

Previous Districts
13th District (Marshall v. Roemmelt)
41st District (Marsden v. Golden)
51st District (McQuigg v. Porta)
64th District (Barlow v. Lapetina)

The 26th district comprises the heart of the Shenandoah Valley with all of the City of Harrisonburg, along with surrounding precincts in Rockingham County.  This is one of the strongest Republican districts in Virginia, and has been represented by Glenn Weatherholtz.  The valley has been a focus of Mark Warner's term in office, and in 2003 he recruited local school board member/farmer Lowell Fulk to challenge Weatherholtz as a Democrat.  Many observers were surprised when Fulk made it a race, and lost by a 55%-45% margin.

Weatherholtz announced his intention not to run for re-election this year, and Weatherholtz's aide decided not to make the campaign to replace him.  After a quick search the GOP fielded a school board member/farmer/professional speaker to run, Matt Lohr.

With momentum from his 2003 campaign, and a sluggish start from Lohr, this race looked like it could be the shocker of 2005- a Democrat elected in the Valley.  Local sites like the Republitarian amplified every error Lohr made, and we moved this race from a "Leans Republican" to a "Tossup" in June.

The Fulk campaign began to unravel in August.  First, the Kaine campaign polling had shown their suburban message was starting to work, and better then expected.  Democrats changed their vote goals to be more suburban-based in places like Fairfax, Loudoun, Henrico and Virginia Beach.  These numbers are critical for local Delegate candidates, as they mean Gubernatorial recourses being moved in to get out a vote for you.  This was a strategic move that was exactly right for the Kaine campaign, but for Democrats in the Valley and SW Virginia it meant the Kaine goals were lower, easier to achieve for Kaine, and less resources were needed to hit them.  Kaine never had a prayer to win in the 26th district, but Fulk needed him to be competitive enough to give himself a chance.  He didn't get that.

Second, in late August the Fulk campaign made a terrible mistake of releasing its polling data.  Up until this point, the Lohr campaign had no good news publicly, and Republican leaders in Richmond were openly mocking his campaign.  Fulk's poll showed the race TIED.  This was after Fulk had been a candidate for almost three straight years, and no good news had come out for Lohr at all. 

That poll made us change our rating to "Leans Republican" again, and we left it there through election day.

The final results here:

Matt Lohr 8,545 (54%)
Lowell Fulk 7,353 (46%)

Breaking the 26th district into four parts:
---------------------------------------------------------
Harrisonburg City Precincts- 44% of the District

Kaine    52.1%
Kilgore  47.9%

Fulk 53.1%
Lohr 46.9%

Fulk 1.0% AHEAD of Kaine
-----------------------------------------------------------
Rockingham County, 1st Supervisor District- 26% of the District

Kaine  30.1%
Kilgore  69.9%

Fulk 44.0%
Lohr 56.0%

Fulk 13.9% AHEAD of Kaine
------------------------------------------------------------
Rockingham County, 2nd Supervisor District- 16% of the District

Kaine  28.1%
Kilgore 71.9%

Fulk 38.6%
Lohr 61.4%

Fulk 10.5% AHEAD of Kaine
-----------------------------------------------------------
Rockingham County, 3rd and 4th Supervisor Districts- 14% of the District

Kaine  32.4%
Kilgore 67.6%

Fulk 37.8%
Lohr 62.2%

Fulk 5.4% AHEAD of Kaine
-----------------------------------------------------------

This is a painful recap for Democrats to look at.  How did Lowell Fulk run so far ahead of Tim Kaine in the Broadway area (1st Supervisor district of Rockingham) where both he and Matt Lohr lived, but run so little ahead of Tim Kaine in Harrisonburg City, the largest block of voters above? 

When you have two candidates running from the same base, and one runs far better then his party (i.e. Lowell Fulk) you have to give credit to that candidate for having done a better job in the community.

When that same candidate fails to run as far ahead in other areas (where his opponent has no obvious ties) the campaign manager and staff have to take responsibility.  If Lowell makes up half the difference in margin between himself and Tim in the City of Harrisonburg, he won this election. 

Here's how it broke down.  The results here (approx):

Harrisonburg City Precincts- 44% of the District
Kaine/Fulk 46.1%
Kilgore/Fulk 7.0%
Kaine/Lohr 6.0%
Kilgore/Lohr 40.9%

Moving to the north end of the district in Broadway, this is where Fulk and Lohr both lived.  It's also where Fulk did the best over Democratic performance.  (Memo to Matt Lohr:  OUCH!)

The results here (approx):

Rockingham County, 1st Supervisor District- 26% of the District
Kaine/Fulk 27.1%
Kilgore/Fulk 16.9%
Kaine/Lohr 3.0%
Kilgore/Lohr 53.0%

The Second Supervisor District in Rockingham is another GOP stronghold where Fulk embarrassed Lohr when you look at the number of Kilgore voters who rejected him for a Democrat.  As in the First Supervisor District, Fulk did well enough here to win the election if his campaign had done a good job for him in Harrisonburg.

The results here (approx):

Rockingham County, 2nd Supervisor District- 16% of the District
Kaine/Fulk  25.1%
Kilgore/Fulk 13.5%
Kaine/Lohr 3.0%
Kilgore/Lohr 58.4%

Finally three precincts are thrown into this district from the Third and Fourth Supervisor Districts in Rockingham.  This is the area of Rockingham County where Lohr did the best job in controlling crossover, but there were still more then double the number of Kilgore/Fulk voters then Kaine/Lohr.

Rockingham County, 3rd and 4th Supervisor Districts- 14% of the District
Kaine/Fulk  28.4%
Kilgore/Fulk 9.4%
Kaine/Lohr 4.0%
Kilgore/Lohr 58.2%
-------------------------------------------------
The great question now becomes, what does the Democratic Party do with a candidate who can run so far ahead of their top of the ticket?

Comments

[republitarian550]

I know!!!

He gets a great paying job with Lantz construction company, then gets named to the agriculture policy transition committee for the Kaine administration.

And gets asked by the Deeds campaign to get volunteers to watch the recount.

What do I win?????

[saywhat??]

The true shame in all this is that the voters of the 26th, after years of weak representation in the GA, are getting more of the same. I know we deserve it ... we actually had a choice this year and so many districts didn't ... but it's still a shame because so many worked so hard for Fulk, who is so obviously smarter than and would have done a better job than Lohr. Some friends and I read the debate transcripts aloud to each other for fun. We really believed that Lohr, whose words were so trite and hollow, would lose. The joke was on us.

For things to get better, an entire generation of knee-jerk Republican voters is going to have to die OR the Republicans are going to have to get real about governing and give us some serious candidates. Now which do you think will happen sooner?

I know that doesn't answer your question, NLS, and I am blissfully ignorant of the inner workings of the political parties. It feels good to vent, though. Thanks.

[Matt]

stick him on a plane and send him to Charlotesville, Loudon or any other place that is being suburbanized and Democraticitized by former Arlingtonians, Alexandrians, and Fairfax County people :) or wait until Harrisonburg overtakes the rest of Rockingham county in population. Within the next 25 years this will be a democratic seat similar to what happend in Charlottesville. The college town effect. Maybe in 50 years Blacksburg will swing over????

[Joe Fitzgerald]

Just 'cause I'm curious ... how do you know if somebody voted for Kaine and Fulk, or Kilgore and Fulk, without seeing the actual ballots? Am I missing something?

[GOPHokie]

Matt, Blacksburg is already very democratic. Take a look at Mongomery precincts for district A, F and G.
Jim Shuler is the delegate for there.

[republitarian550]

Is this the same Joe Fitzgerald who didn't help his fellow democrat get elected? Is this the same Joe who said Davis Walsh didn't know what he was doing?

Is this the same Joe Fitzgerald who stabbed all those people in the back on that golf course deal?

[Joe Fitzgerald]

That'd be me, Myron. But refresh my memory. Was I responsible for 9/11 as well?

Apologies to NLS for using his blog for a personal note.

And in my defense, I gave the bribe money for the golf course vote to charity.

[republitarian550]

AH HAH!!!!

So you admit it... I will call the local news media immediately..uh,hold on, they don't do "real" news.

Just curious Joe... Which charity did you give it to? The Raphael Rodgers get out of jail fund.

Of course you realize I'm just spoofing.....

Isn't the most important figure, this one:

16,477 voters in Rockingham County; turnout 55.40%

16, 591 voters in Harrisonburg; turnout 42.02%

?

The only thing we realize once again, Myron, is that you are a colossal asshole.

[republitarian550]

oh lighten up...it's Christmas!!!!

[valley iconoclast]

Turn out was huge, Rockingham County out performed the state average by a considerable margin and, more importantly Harrisonburg.

But even assuming that FUlk had turned out 55.4% of Harrisonburg, that would have only gained him about 558 votes. Based on the voting percentages in Harrisonburg.

It is also important to note that the precincts making up the 26th in Rockingham outperformed the rest of the county, including the precincts in the 20th that also had a contested Delegate race.

It is clear that the 26th race brought out voters, unfortunately for Fulk, they were Republicans.

Ultimately, NLS seems to place the turning point of the election on the release of the polling data. While I agree this was a mistake, the numbers indicate that no one thing would have swung this election the other way.

Lohr ran a cookie cutter Valley Republican campaign and counted on partisans and social conservatives to carry him to victory. Fulk attempted to appeal to people who were paying attention to the campaign (i.e. reading the transcripts of the debates) and to those who were willing to cross party lines. The election demonstrated that there is no governing majority of people who pay attention.

This seat is a safe Republican seat unless significant demographic changes occur. However, it is my understanding that there is already talk of splitting Harrisonburg into two districts to prevent a Democratic pick-up

[reasoned view]

Are you people blind? The demographic shift is irrelevant; the paradigm shift is in motion! When is the last time a Democrat won as governor in Harrisonburg? Leslie Byrne got more votes in Red Virginia than Jerry Kilgore! Mark Warner has done a great job and Virginians get it. Lowell Fulk has done a great job in the Valley and people get it! Just because things aren't reversed overnight, don't for one moment think that people aren't looking at things with a different outlook.

[Adam Sharp]

If the Republicans think splitting Harrisonburg into multiple districts is the answer, ha! They're stuck.
1, leaving H-burg the way it is means a Democratic candidate that can produce a 60% turnout can win.
2, splitting H-burg dumps Democratic voters (and donors) into Saxman and Landes' safe seats. If Saxman lost Highland and Stuarts Draft and gained southern H-burg, he would be in trouble. If Landes lost part of Augusta to Saxman and gained eastern H-burg, he would find a similar predictament.

Also, what happens off-year elections when turnout drops, or when H-burg's state senator has his own race to worry about instead of running Lohr's? This district is by no means locked up for the Republicans (they had to spend a lot of money and effort to keep it), and Dems in H-burg have tasted partial victory.

Lohr better be a model delegate these next two years, or Ben could be blogging about the 26th for many years to come.