A look back at the 75th District

The seventh in a series looking back at each competitive house race.

Previous Districts
13th District (Marshall v. Roemmelt)
26th District (Lohr v. Fulk)
41st District (Marsden v. Golden)
51st District (McQuigg v. Porta)
64th District (Barlow v. Lapetina)
68th District (Waddell v. Marrs)

One of the results of the more recent redistricting has been numerous competitive contests every cycle in certain districts and scores of others that aren't ever noticed.  The 75th district fell in that category as it was represented by Paul Councill for decades without a serious challenge.

The district, a black majority district in population, but not black majority with voters is solidly Democratic and when Councill retired five Democrats stepped forward to represent the district, while Republicans fielded second tier candidate Carson Saunders.

The Democratic Primary came down to three main candidates.  Councill's son, a local Mayor Jim Councill, former State Senate candidate Jerry Flowers, both white and from the eastern side of the district.  Former County Supervisor Roslyn Tyler, African American and from the western side of the district.

Tyler surprised Flowers and Councill, after they split their base of support by coming in and winning the primary by about three percentage points.

Because Tyler was such a controversial candidate, Republicans began eyeing this seat.  They ran a low key campaign, not trying to stir up Democratic voters, and almost provided the shocking upset of the night.  We saw this coming and had this race rated as a "Toss Up" going into election day.

The results here:

Roslyn Tyler 9,229 (50.6%)
Carson Saunders 8,997 (49.4%)


Going from east to west in the 75th district
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Isle of Wight County- 2% of the District

Kaine    64.7%
Kilgore  35.3%

Tyler 59.9%
Saunders 40.1%

Tyler 4.8% BEHIND Kaine
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Franklin City- 9% of the District

Kaine    60.8%
Kilgore  39.2%

Tyler 53.0%
Saunders 47.0%

Tyler 7.8% BEHIND Kaine
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Southampton County- 22% of the District

Kaine    53.0%
Kilgore  47.0%

Tyler 45.7%
Saunders 54.3%

Tyler 7.3% BEHIND Kaine
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Sussex County- 17% of the District

Kaine    55.4%
Kilgore  44.6%

Tyler 50.3%
Saunders 49.7%

Tyler 5.1% BEHIND Kaine
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Emporia City- 9% of the District

Kaine    49.4%
Kilgore  50.6%

Tyler 43.4%
Saunders 56.6%

Tyler 6.0% BEHIND Kaine
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Greensville County- 18% of the District

Kaine    56.3%
Kilgore  43.7%

Tyler 51.1%
Saunders 48.9%

Tyler 5.2% BEHIND Kaine
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Brunswick County- 19% of the District

Kaine    63.6%
Kilgore  36.4%

Tyler 58.3%
Saunders 41.7%

Tyler 5.3% BEHIND Kaine
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Lunenburg County- 4% of the District

Kaine    52.1%
Kilgore  47.9%

Tyler 50.2%
Saunders 49.8%

Tyler 1.9% BEHIND Kaine
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As you can see, Tyler's biggest areas of weakness came from the eastern end of the district, home to both of her key primary opponents as well as Del. Councill.  However, the difference was fairly small, in reality she was weak everywhere compared to the rest of her ticket.

Starting in the east the results were (approx.)

Isle of Wight County- 2% of the District
Kaine/Tyler 57.9%
Kilgore/Tyler 2.0%
Kaine/Saunders 6.8%
Kilgore/Saunders 33.3%

Moving east Tyler hits her worst area for crossover.

The results here (approx):

Franklin City- 9% of the District
Kaine/Tyler 51.0%
Kilgore/Tyler 2.0%
Kaine/Saunders 9.8%
Kilgore/Saunders 37.2%

Tyler continues big problems in Southampton, which has the largest share of voters in this district.

The results here (approx):

Southampton County- 22% of the District
Kaine/Tyler 43.7%
Kilgore/Tyler 2.0%
Kaine/Saunders 9.3%
Kilgore/Saunders 45.0%

Things get a couple of points better as we continue west into Sussex County.  These first four localities equal half of the district vote, and Saunders crossover here is just large enough to win, if he could keep it up in the western half of the district.

The results here (approx):

Sussex County- 17% of the District
Kaine/Tyler 48.3%
Kilgore/Tyler 2.0%
Kaine/Saunders 7.1%
Kilgore/Saunders 42.6%

The numbers don't get any better in Emporia.  The results here (approx):

Emporia City- 9% of the District
Kaine/Tyler 41.4%
Kilgore/Tyler 2.0%
Kaine/Saunders 8.0%
Kilgore/Saunders 48.6%

In Greensville, the crossover starts to slow down.  The smaller crossover in the three western counties where Tyler has a political base was the difference in her hanging on.  The results here (approx):

Greensville County- 18% of the District
Kaine/Tyler 48.6%
Kilgore/Tyler 2.5%
Kaine/Saunders 7.7%
Kilgore/Saunders 41.2%

The crossover numbers in Brunswick are almost identical.  The results here (approx):

Brunswick County- 19% of the District
Kaine/Tyler 55.8%
Kilgore/Tyler 2.5%
Kaine/Saunders 7.8%
Kilgore/Saunders 33.9%

Finally, Lunenburg.  This was Tyler's best county in avoiding crossover against her. The results here (approx):

Lunenburg County- 4% of the District
Kaine/Tyler 46.7%
Kilgore/Tyler 3.5%
Kaine/Saunders 5.4%
Kilgore/Saunders 44.4%

The future of the 75th is hard to tell.  How long will voters here hold a grudge against Tyler before they embrace her?  Will she be more vulnerable in 2007 without Tim Kaine at the top of the ticket? 

One thing is for sure.  The 232 vote margin here, in a district drawn to be solidly Democratic will draw GOP attention in the next redistricting if Tyler hasn't made major improvements.  Since this district was drawn to max out the Democratic vote, only minor changes would be needed for a Republican to make up the 232 vote margin if Tyler is still hanging on by that in 2010.

Comments

u going to do a look back at the 32nd - it was only the biggest upset in the state. I'd be interested in your take on it.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Yes, the 45th is next, 32nd will be after that.

[GOPHokie]

It won't be competitive by 2010. If the GOP is going to beat Tyler, its going to be in '07. After that, I would be very surprised to see any serious chance after that. The district isn't really turning democratic like some other seats where this type of thing has happened (aka the 6th and hopefully the 3rd).