KELLAM FILES TO CHALLENGE DRAKE

The 2nd Congressional District, home of two wild elections since the retirement of Owen Pickett in 2000, looks like it will be host to another brawl this year.

In the 2000 election then State Senator Ed Schrock won this seat by a 52.0%-48.0% margin over Jody Wagner (now State Treasurer).  George W. Bush won this district with 52.8% so it's fair to say his coattails carried Schrock in.

Schrock looked like he would hold the seat for as long as he wanted.... then... Download daily_show_video.mpg

With his sudden withdrawl, Republicans had a problem on their hand.  Democrats had a credible candidate in David Ashe, and it was Labor Day.  Republican Ken Stolle, a moderate Virginia Beach Republican offered to run.  But anti-tax loyalists, angry over the 2004 tax increase, controlled the process since it was too late to have a caucus or primary.  They went outside of the population base of Virginia Beach, and chose Delegate Thelma Drake of Norfolk.

Drake ran two points ahead of Bush in Norfolk (54.1%-52.1%) and 3.7% behind him in VA Beach (55.4%-59.1%), and won a ten point victory.

Thelma Drake 132,946
David Ashe 108,180

This year Ashe was back for a rematch, and looked to have a little more momentum on his side.  The national mood, coupled with Tim Kaine's victory in the 2nd district gave Ashe a fighting chance.  We were going to rate this race a "Leans Republican".

But now, Democrats are really taking their shot at Drake.  Longtime Virginia Beach Commissioner of the Revenue Phil Kellam filed paperwork with the FEC last night to run.  As the most popular Democrat in Virginia Beach, and with a family name that goes back generations in the Beach, Kellam gives Democrats a real shot at Drake. 

From a strategic sense, Kellam would have little chance had the Republicans nominated Ken Stolle, also of Virginia Beach, in this district.  But with Drake having a Norfolk base, Kellam's Virginia Beach base is the perfect match up for her in the 2nd district. About 75% of this district is in Virginia Beach, and just over 10% is in Norfolk.

This race is now  a "Slight-Lean Republican" and looks to be the race of the year in 2006 for Virginia.

The primary outlook is "Likely Kellam".

Comments

[Not Jack Herrity]

Ben:

I think you should change your handle to Not Matt Drudge. Your posts are getting to be that breathless. :)

NJH

[Not Larry Sabato]

Not Jack, in the last 15 years, Virginia has only seen one incumbent Congressman of each party defeated for re-election (1990-Moran over Parris), (1994- Davis over Byrne). The news of a possible incumbent defeat is a big one IMO.

And our siren is better then Drudge's. :)

[Matt]

Once again excellent information when are you going to do something on the 8th or the 10th?

[Matt]

whoops 8 and 11 not 10 Wolf is a lock :)

Thanks for the update, NLS. I live in the 2nd District, in the part of Hampton that lies there, where none of the candidates have a base. While I'm a Republican, I do have to agree with you that this may prove to be the closest race in the state next year. Personally, Drake would never have been my choice to replace Schrock, and I can't help but think that her weakness is part of the reason why the Democrats have gone from not even running someone against Schrock in 2002 to now feeling like they have a shot here. Granted, the national political mood and Kaine's victory are factors too, but even given that, I feel that if the Republicans had a better candidate that they would be fine. Unfortunately, we got stuck with Drake last year. While I support her, I still feel as if someone like Stolle would be better.
Also, for what it's worth, there is another Democrat running, Troy Farlow from the Eastern Shore, a former legislative assistant to Del. Lynwood Lewis: http://www.farlowforcongress.com/

Why don't you get back to the analysis of the 2005 HOD races NLS? We've still got the 42nd, the 37th, and probably some others. Looking forward to your analysis! There is plenty of time to try to prognosticate on 2006, but let's get through 2005 first, no?

I get the feeling that the last anon is a crazy person. Anybody else with me?

[not gretchen bulova]

It takes time to analyza the results and be accurate. Plus, what's the point of doing it all in one day, then the blog is done. Spread it out NLS, we have a LONG time before what will probably be a boring election cycle in VA

Sure, spread it out. I'm just saying that HOD information is more appropriate for now, whereas we can discuss congressional elections 6 months from now when they will be more interesting.

Last anon:

Yes, but if there is breaking news, it should be reported!

[Not Jack Herrity]

In all seriousness, I think you may have deleted readers' ability to read archived posts. For instance, I can't for the life of me figure out how to go back and read your tome on the 41st. Was that intentional?

[Not Larry Sabato]

No. I am going to put up links on the right once I figure out how. For now, when you click on a stories comments look at the website address. See where it says /12/? change 12 to the month you want and cut off the site address there, and you will get everything from that month. Also, for the 41st, there is a link in the story on the 13th.

[Will]

so i guess this means that kellam will challenge ashe for the democratic nomination?

hey I really like Ashe, but I'm all for anyone that can take out that hack Thelma Drake...

[eileen]

I just moved to Virginia Beach from Loudoun County (10th). I just love pissing off the radical right so I'm glad I can continue to practice the sport down here in VB!

[Yo Mama]

Under the "Free Advice" department: I offer you the following:

Democrats have waged open war on White Men since the Johnson Administration. Democrats created the era of "political correctness" that poisons our workplaces and schools, and has nearly destroyed the work ethic that is at the very core of the American success story; that being that if a citizen has MERIT and is willing to work hard, anyone can make it here in the USA.

Because of the creation of favored minority status for negroes by Democrats and the creation of still more government directed, race and gender based programs that grant a status that any reader of Animal Farm would recognize as "some citizens are more equal than others." Democrats seem to have forgotten about the White poor. According to recent census data, there are more White Americans living in poverty than either the ENTIRE negro population or the ENTIRE latin population. By contrast, if you take the African American population alone, as an independent country, their income ranks them as the twentieth most prosperous country in the world (according to data published by the Washington Post).

While I understand that Democrats have tried to use political correctness and minority hand-outs to cobble together political coalitions over the past several decades, the long term result is to drive White, working class Men away from the Democratic Party.

If you take a stand where you support a return to, "Equal treatment under the law" and champion the return to merit based hiring and promotion practices, you will carve out the middle class working men from the Republican ranks, and if handled properly, your base will remain solidly behind you as well. Based on discussions of this topic all across our nation, I consistently find that people from all genders and races strongly support MERIT based hiring and promotion and generally view the various set-asides and quota programs as un-American (even when some of the respondents had benefited from these same programs).

Additionally, Thelma Drake will come out with the generic Republican blather about putting more people in jail; longer mandatory sentences, and the typical appeal to the evangelicals in your area. All you need to do to neutralize the evangelicals is to take a stand in favor of limiting infanticide to the greatest extent possible and to offer to stand up for the working class by helping to secure more career quality jobs. On this latter note, one interview I heard had a fellow describing how Republican job growth had produced all the minimum wage jobs you could find; in fact he currently worked three of those jobs just to get by. By emphasizing a commitment to attracting career-quality jobs, not just the Wal-Mart greeter jobs that the Republicans have left us with, you will pull the grassroots rug right out from Thelma's generic Republican campaign.

On a final note: Don't forget to make several personal appearances with the Phillipino community. Phillipinos are a wildly successful segment of our population (the highest concentration of doctors and allied health professionals) and they feel stung by the fact that others get favored minority status, while their achievements on merit alone, is consistently setting the bar for the rest of the other minority groups; a moderate tone on abortion and commitment to merit only based hiring will pay big dividends with this very wealthy, active and influential segment.