One of the great advantages Democrats currently have is Governor Warner being able to select special election dates. The politics behind yesterday's special elections in Senate District 4, and House District 3 are very interesting.
Senate District 4 pits Ryan McDougle against Roger Cavendish. This is a "Likely GOP" hold, and the politics here relate to McDougle's 97th House district. That special election is currently rated "Leans Republican" and pits John Montgomery against Chris Peace.
McDougle and Republicans had been assuming they could control whether the special elections would be the same day with a potential McDougle resignation. Mark Warner would not have been obligated to call a special election the same day, but the politics of "wasting taxpayer money" could have forced him into it.
By calling this very quick special election for Bill Bolling's seat, Warner has taken the cards out of McDougle's hands who has been wavering on what to do. His GOP colleagues wanted him to resign, but McDougle has been wavering, being somewhat of a chicken considering the makeup of the 4th Senate District. Now, if he resigns, Warner can wait a few days to call the election, and say its too quick to happen by January 3rd.
Meanwhile in the 3rd House district, one of the reasons you hadn't heard much about it (other then our report of a potential resignation last week) is the politics of that district. The 3rd House district was drawn to be the most reliable Democratic seat in Southwest Virginia. However, since redistricting, all of SW has moved dramatically towards the GOP. That's left this House district as a swing district based on the results of the last two years.
But a recent insurgency does not equal organization. This is a heavy union area (United Mine Workers) and a quick special election here gives the Democrats an upper hand in organization.
Either of these House specials could go either way, but to start the process, it looks like the 97th has a GOP advantage, and the 3rd has a Democratic advantage.
NLS, Thanks for the updates!
Posted by: | December 13, 2005 at 11:26 AM
My thoughts exactly. The dems will have a major advantage in the 3rd with the union presence.
Posted by: GOPHokie | December 13, 2005 at 11:50 AM
There is no special in the 97th...yet
Posted by: | December 13, 2005 at 04:04 PM
McDougle will cruise to victory
Posted by: GOPHokie | December 13, 2005 at 04:31 PM
Isn't about time that Chris Peace post his regular pro-Peace comments about his bipartisan pac and how supportive he is of Senator Bolling, who through his mother off the bench?
Posted by: NotaFan | December 13, 2005 at 05:13 PM
that should be threw...
Posted by: NotaFan | December 13, 2005 at 05:14 PM
Indeed, NotaFan. It's no secret that I support John Montgomery for the 97th, should that election occur. That being said, should he lose, I'd rather he lose to a Republican who can bring some experience - life, as well as political - to the office. Peace's CV appears to be composed of working for the Family Foundation while in law school, losing the primary for Jack Rollison, and lobbying for McGuireWoods.
Hanover is supposed to be replete with Republicans, according to the voting patterns. Can't that county find anyone other than McDougal and Peace to carry the standard?
Posted by: J. Sarge | December 13, 2005 at 06:48 PM
There will never be Peace in the Middle-New Kent County.
Posted by: Virginia Centrist | December 13, 2005 at 06:51 PM
I forgot to mention this blurb from http://www.newkent.net/
"December 17 New Kent Republican Roundup 3 to 7 pm at Millstone Farm (Bill Grubb's Farm) Meet Chris Peace, potential candidate for House of Delegates. Invited Guests: Former Lt. Governor John Hager and Senator Tommy Norment. Good Food and Drink."
Chris, I expect to be appropriately rewarded for my GOTV efforts...
Posted by: J. Sarge | December 13, 2005 at 07:01 PM
As someone who lives in the 97th, I look forward to voting for Peace if he is the GOP nominee. Any Republican, even an imperfect one, would be better than a Democrat. Based on GOP past performances in the district, I suspect that a majority of voters will feel the same way. And no, I'm not Chris Peace nor am I affiliated with him.
Posted by: New Kent Voter | December 13, 2005 at 07:37 PM
What happened to Phil Boykin in the 97th?- you mentioned him sometime over the summer as a possible candidate.
Posted by: | December 13, 2005 at 07:47 PM
I was a Democrat. And then I learned that Chris Peace was running. I switched parties and now I will vote for Chris Peace. He is the right man for the job. He has the commonsense values that will lead us forward into the 22nd century. I am not affiliated with the Peace campaign nor am I Chris Peace.
Posted by: New Kent Voter #2 | December 13, 2005 at 08:17 PM
I am, for the record, also not Chris Peace.
Posted by: ZB | December 13, 2005 at 08:38 PM
Then who is Chris Peace?
Posted by: | December 13, 2005 at 09:07 PM
Good to know that so many people arent Chris Peace.
New Kent Voter 1-so are you saying that party is the only thing that matters. To those who think that party line is the most important thing two words-duke cunningham-or if you are a dem-jim traficant. there are much more important things than "d" and "r"
Posted by: SE VA MWC Alum | December 13, 2005 at 09:52 PM
Yes, there are more important things than party and that’s philosophy. I generally associate Rs with conservatives and Ds with liberals. That said, corruption trumps everything, but there has never been any indication that either Peace or Monty is corrupt, so party/philosophy is the dominate factor in deciding my vote.
Posted by: New Kent Voter | December 13, 2005 at 10:15 PM
Maybe Chris Peace ate my sandwich.
Posted by: Dr. Alan Parsons | December 13, 2005 at 10:51 PM
I'm not in favor of anyone who can't defend their mother.
Posted by: Liberty | December 14, 2005 at 01:01 AM
Is Peace a lawyer?
Posted by: | December 14, 2005 at 08:35 AM
Peace is a laywer - U of R class of 2002, I believe. New Kent Voters #1 and #2 are, most likely, GOP activists that are not on the Peace payroll but support his candidacy. Their statements come off almost as manufactured as those of the Werkheiser and Golden supporters during the Fall.
Note the tones. One says "Party ideology is all that matters!" Translation: GOPers, rally around Peace! The other sounds like the tripe taken off a lit piece. Translation: "Those of you on the other side of the aisle - Peace is the man for you. He's so great, we should all cross party lines to vote for him!"
Who does this leave? Peace seems to be actively ignoring the Green vote and felons.
Phil Boykin? Still young, but with a bit more political experience (Asst. Sec. of Administration). Also a lobbyist still, I believe. Like Peace, a nice man. That would be some caucus!
Posted by: J. Sarge | December 14, 2005 at 09:21 AM
I'm not in favor of anyone who would eat another man's sandwich. I'm hungry!!!
Posted by: Dr. Alan Parsons | December 14, 2005 at 10:10 AM
J. Sarge:
Actually, I wrote the second New Kent Voter post. I'm a dem and it was a joke. I was making fun of New Kent Voter #1.
Posted by: | December 14, 2005 at 11:51 AM
New Kent Voter #2, my bad.
Posted by: J. Sarge | December 14, 2005 at 01:21 PM
Liberty:
I don't see how Chris' mother has anything to do with his campaign. His politics are about as far from his his mother's as you can get, but is that really that out of the ordinary?
Posted by: Virginia | December 14, 2005 at 09:24 PM
Looks like another special coming up, Preston Bryant is going to be appointed to the secretary of natural resources
Posted by: SE VA MWC Alum | December 14, 2005 at 09:34 PM