Not Larry Sabato

Thank You

Every time ballots are counted, our hits explode.  Tonight we got over 11,000 hits from seven until nine p.m.

Thanks for trusting our site on election nights.

Please use this thread to discuss anything you like.

Some suggestions:

1)  Do the recent Democratic wins in Lynchburg City and Loudoun County mean the two party system has returned to the legislature?  If so, why couldn't the Democrats win more of these seats in November?

2)  How blue does Fairfax have to go until Tom Davis or Frank Wolf become vulnerable?

3)  Can Republicans stand up to Kaine's growth plans after yesterday without risking electoral disaster in exurbs across Virginia?

4)  What can we do to improve the coverage of elections on this site? 

5)  Many Democrats are thrilled with Tim Kaine's rebuttal, including NoVA-9.  How did you feel about it?

Please put the number of the question you are answering in the comment section to make it easier to read the replies.  Got another topic?  Make it a #6.

Projected Winner

Mark Herring has defeated Mick Staton.  Margin:  TBD

UPDATE:  This is an ass kicking.  Has Staton even won a precinct yet?

UPDATE #2- Too Conservative says Staton lost every precinct.

33rd Showdown

The buzz on the ground from Republicans and Democrats is that Mark Herring is the new Senator, defeating Mick Staton.

Turnout is light, I am going to wait to see some numbers before I call the same.  I didn't get any blowout vibes when I was visiting polls, but that was in Fairfax County, not Loudoun which dominates this district.

Too Conservative's Truancy

I've been checking out precincts this morning with local school board member Kathy Smith. 

The talk of each of the polling places has been the young Republican who is skipping school today to work in the special election.

When we ran into the truant TooConservative, a discussion was ongoing with poll workers over what they were more offended by- his truancy, or his unwashed clothes.  It was a split decision with school board member Smith angry over the truancy and another poll working mom upset about the clothes.

Also ran into Jim Parmelee who was at Franklin polling place.  Jim, the worst dressed at the Tom Davis Christmas party was wearing a blue hat, red earmuffs, a plaid shirt, olive jacket, khakis, and brown shoes.  Six items- and none matched. 

Very low turnout- seems to lean a little Democratic so far, but too early to tell for sure.

UPDATE:  Low turnout means only hardcore voters are coming out.  It's funny to watch a Jeep with a Bush bumper sticker pull out and be replaced by a VW with a Kaine sticker.  Over and over.

I was only in Fairfax, but that could be close.  Slight Lean to Herring there, but I couldn't tell for sure.

Too Conservative was dressed better the second time we saw him.  Also saw Chris Craddock for a while, and that was fun. 

Redskins vs. Republicans

Sorry for the delay, coverage of the inaugural isn't done yet!  So far, I already covered the swearing in, the parade, the press center and the chance interview I had with Don Beyer on the way back to Colonial Williamsburg.

After all that, I headed up to Richmond.  It was only an ninety minutes until the Redskins playoff game with the Seahawks.  As I told you before, Chap Petersen, Scott Surovell and Troy Farlow were throwing a party for the game called "Redskins vs. Republicans" to raise money for John Montgomery and Mark Herring.

I got there just a little before the game.  First, I was really excited to meet blogger James Walkinshaw.  James hasn't updated his blog since he was hired as campaign manager for Andy Hurst, some of you may remember James worked last year for Bruce Roemmelt.  More important, James had some serious eye candy on his arm, who also turned out to be brilliant and great conversation.

I was a little skeptical about Hurst, but he showed up a few minutes into the game, and I was pleasantly surprised.  He was a hundred times better than I expected.  His campaign against Tom Davis is very uphill, but I see Andy as fulfilling the two things Democrats need in a candidate.  1- Being willing to put himself on the ballot, and 2- Having the skills to avoid embarrassing the Dems.  He's a credible guy, and that's a first for the 11th district since 1996.

Also attending was Troy Farlow.  Rumors are circulating that Troy, a former aide to Lynwood Lewis, is going to challenge Nick Rerras for the State Senate.  This may turn into a hot race in 2007, the Rerras district has always been competitive, and now is mainly represented by Democrats Paula Miller and Lynwood Lewis in the House of Delegates.

Troy considered running for Congress in the 2nd district before dropping out this year.  One thing I noticed immediately was his biggest campaign mistake.  On his arm was his wife, who might have been the best looking woman in Richmond all weekend.  Yet his old website has no pictures of her! Maybe this is planned, could she be the October Surprise against Rerras?

Towards halftime, Creigh Deeds showed up.  I learned something new from Creigh- he is an avid blog reader.  Creigh told me he reads here for "the entertaining comments", he reads Commonwealth Conservative because Chad "needs to be set straight on his Cincinnati Reds history" and other blogs. 

Creigh was still annoyed over some of the stories about him leaving his Senate seat and forcing a special election.  I've also been shocked about how the Charlottesville rumor mill and candidates didn't shut down after Creigh's close loss for Attorney General.  That city's political wanabees should take a look at the Senate- over half of the members have had failed statewide campaigns at one time or another.  Creigh is still a young man, he can run again statewide, or stay in the Senate retirement home for decades to come.  Those planning a Senate run might want to look at 2031.

Both Creigh and Troy agreed on one thing- they don't like blogger Not-Gretchen Bulova!  Creigh pointed out NGB's post on Lynchburg being in the Valley was wrong, and Troy didn't like her post where she told him to drop out. 

I want to thank Not Gretchen for finding a way to take the title away from me of "Virginia's Most Unpopular Blogger!".  By the way, Creigh and Troy were both right.  But NGB is getting better, and I still appreciate their insight.

Other then that, the game sucked, and the Redskins trip to the Super Bowl was delayed a year.

Next Up:  Coverage of the Inaugural Ball!

Babe Results

On the last day of the first round, our biggest upset!

Shayna Englin 4,052 (56%)
Andrea Lohr 3,129 (44%)

The quarterfinals are coming up soon!  Here are the matchups

Amy Frederick vs. Helen Lapentina

Supriya Christopher vs. Jennie Golden

Marion Werkheiser vs. Georgia Allen

Gretchen Bulova vs. Shayna Englin

THE ELITE EIGHT!  Each only three wins from a championship!

Gay Marriage

Same-Sex Couples Becoming More Acceptable in Richmond.

But How will it Play Back home?

Both the House and Senate have now voted on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

In a column here last week, "Not Gretchen Bulova" criticized both Tim Kaine and Creigh Deeds for not coming out stronger against this.

I don't think Not-Gretchen's critique was totally fair.  In fact, laying the issue itself aside, I think a few Democrats in certain districts have made their re-elections much more difficult because of this vote.

In Northern Virginia, Republicans voted 9 Yes, and 0 No (1 Not voting), while Democrats voted 1 Yes (Shannon) and 15 No. 

So, Republicans are for this amendment.  Shocker.  But, the big change has come in districts outside the beltway held by Democrats.

Last year when this resolution came up, 3 Democrats represented districts outside the beltway, Chap Petersen, Steve Shannon in swing districts and Ken Plum in Reston which has always been the Democratic stronghold outside the beltway (about 70% for Gore, Kerry etc.).

Outside the Beltway Democrats voted 2 Yes (Petersen, Shannon) and 1 No (Plum) last year.

This year, with new Democrats added in even more historically GOP districts, there was a remarkable flip.  Outside the beltway Democrats now voted 1 Yes (Shannon) and 5 No (Bulova, Marsden, Poisson, Caputo, Plum)

How did other groups besides NoVA Dems in the state vote?

Northern Virginia Republicans:  9 Yes, 0 No, 1 Not Voting
African American Majority Districts:  7 Yes, 3 No, 2 Not Voting
Republicans in White Majority Districts:  45 Yes, 1 No, 1 Not Voting
Democrats in White Majority Districts:  9 Yes, 3 No

The three Democrats voting no from white majority districts were David Toscano (UVA), Jim Shuler (VA Tech) and Shannon Valentine.

I'm not sure Valentine will survive re-election with this vote.  Her opponent is going to say "The first thing Shannon Valentine did was vote to deny you your vote on marriage".  No other Democrats voted for this bill from downstate white districts that don't have a major university.  Even some that do have one like Barlow (William and Mary) voted for it.

The fact is this.  Not-Gretchen was wrong to portray this vote as a "no brainer" for statewide Democrats.  It's a very tough position for them, especially before seeing how this sudden influx of No Votes from outside the beltway is going to play in their districts.

Of the No Votes, here's the list of the most vulnerable from it:

1)  Shannon Valentine- This one shocked everyone

2)  David Poisson- Loudoun is still conservative, and this gives the Dick Black types a reason to discuss social issues, instead of the issues that got Poisson elected.

3)  David Bulova-  What makes David vulnerable on this vote is a comparison to former Delegate Chap Petersen.  David had to use Chap to get himself elected, now Republicans can do a comparison piece, and show that David is moving the district left.

4)  Chuck Caputo-  Chuck has never planned to serve in the House a long time, so he'll do whatever he wants, re-election be damned.  Most voters might actually like his George Burns like attitude.

5)  Dave Marsden- The least vulnerable of the outside the beltway Democrats on this issue.  Why?   Jim Dillard was a Republican who opposed this, he will hide behind Dillard and say it was a "bi-partisan vote".  The difference in his Dillard cover, while Bulova has none is striking.

Last year we had zero "NO" votes cast from swing districts, so 2007 will see this played out for the first time.  What do you think will happen with this first time event?  Will anyone lose on this issue?

Babe, Continued

Today's matchup is

#7 DEM Seed Shayna Englin
(See Shayna here)
vs.
#2 GOP Seed Andrea Lohr
(See Andrea here)

Both of these ladies could go all the way to the finals, but they both need your vote(s) today.

VOTE BY CLICKING HERE

Chicago Rules Apply- Vote as many times as you want.

Decisive Battle on Tuesday

It's hard to imagine a special election with bigger consequences then the battle Tuesday between Mick Staton and Mark Herring.

The future of the State Senate is at stake. 

As we discussed before, the reason Virginia politics operates as it does now, is the moderate GOP control of the State Senate. 

The public count of the Senate is slightly different then this (some Senators will kiss the rear end of the leadership until they are vulnerable, and then oust them), here's what I have as the starting point:

8 Conservative Republicans
16 Moderate "Squish" Republicans
16 Democrats

While there is no chance of a total conservative takeover (20 seats), the key number is whether conservatives can outnumber moderates in the GOP Caucus, and take over the leadership.

Depending on the total number of Republicans, that could require 11, 12 or 13 conservative seats.  Staton would be number nine, and the breakdown of the Senate would change to this

Staton Victory
9 Conservative Republicans (Plus 1)
15 Moderate "Squish" Republicans (Minus 1)
16 Democrats

A Herring victory would temporarily squash the conservatives in the Senate, and their hopes of taking over.  Herring would increase the number of Democrats to seventeen, and create a legitimate chance of a Democratic Senate takeover in 2007.

Herring Victory
8 Conservative Republicans
15 Moderate "Squish" Republicans (Minus 1)
17 Democrats (Plus 1)

Democrats have a poor record against the moderate GOP of the Senate in the last two decades, only defeating two moderate incumbents GOP Senators(Jane Woods, Robert Calhoun) head to head in the last twenty years.  Democrats can only pick up these moderate GOP seats in a special dynamic or when conservatives seize the nomination, as has happened here.

A referendum on total opposite Boards of Supervisors in Loudoun is at stake.

This seat is overwhelmingly in Loudoun County, one of the fastest growing counties in America.  The growth issue is what drives local politics.  In 1999, Democrats and Independents took over the Board of Supervisors on a "Smart Growth" platform.  In 2003, the Republicans took back 6 of 9 seats on a "property rights" platform. 

Mark Herring served on 1999-2003 Democratic Board that enacted massive growth restrictions, which were later overturned in court on a technicality (not advertised in time).

Mick Staton came onto the Board as part of the GOP takeover in 2003.  He has been a leader in the policies of the new board.

Tim Kaine's Loudoun victory this year, on the growth issue has many observers predicting the old Board now has the upper hand going into 2007.  If Staton defeats Herring this momentum towards the old Board would be stuffed.

The upper hand in Loudoun growth issues will have major impacts in growth across the booming D.C. metro area.  Even officials in Maryland are watching this special election closely.

A test of recent Democratic momentum is at stake

In each of the seriously contested special elections this year, Democratic candidates ran well ahead of Tim Kaine's performance in their districts.

This district went for Kaine by a larger margin then any of the other special election districts.  Republicans must not only blunt Democratic momentum, but flip it to win this election.  If Herring runs ahead of Kaine here, Republicans will have some serious soul searching on this years special elections, and what has happened since November.

Tim Kaine's transportation and growth plan is at stake

While each of the special elections have seen Democrats exceed Tim Kaine's percentage in their district, its worth noting that both Democratic victories came before Tim announced his transportation plan, and the loss came afterwords.  At the polls in the 97th, I heard voters bringing up this issue as a reason to come out and vote for Peace.

Mick Staton has seized on this issue and is using it as a major difference between him and Herring.  A Staton victory would leave the Democrats winless since Kaine announced his plan.  That would stiffen the spines of those legislators opposed to the new taxes, and possibly be the deciding factor in the defeat of the plan. 

A Herring victory would be seen as taking a traditionally GOP area, and winning it twice (Kaine and then Herring) on the transportation and growth issue.  The momentum gained from that win, could be the deciding factor in the passing of Tim's plan.

The 2007 Elections are at stake

With all three Senate factions struggling for position, this election will decide who has the upper hand going into 2007.

A Staton victory would be a disaster for the moderate Republicans (RINO's?) who control the Senate.  One of their strongest arguments in 2007 is going to be "if you defeat us the Democrats will take over".  Flipping a moderate R seat to a conservative, in a district Tim Kaine won would be devastating to that argument.  Mick's victory would likely embolden conservatives to challenge moderate Republicans across the board, making all out nuclear war in the GOP.

A Herring victory would leave Senate Democrats in a remarkable position.  Northern Virginia exurbs, all traditionally strong GOP areas would be represented by three Democrats (Colgan, Herring and Houck) and two Republicans (Chichester and Potts).  Moderate Republicans looking to hang on to the Chichester and Potts seats would argue that type of Republican is the only kind that can win those Senate seats. 

Meanwhile, while Democrats sit waiting, hoping that conservatives take either of those nominations so they can challenge, three other Republicans will be in a terrible position.  JeanneMarie Davis, Ken Cuccinelli and Jay O'Brien, will all be sitting in Kaine/Byrne districts.  A Herring win will leave them surrounded, with Democrats controlling both inside the beltway districts, and with Herring and Colgan to their west.

One could say that a Herring victory will leave these three GOP Senators looking up like George Custer... surrounded with no where to go.  Will a Herring victory make 2007 "Cuccinelli's Last Stand"? 

We'll find out on Tuesday.

Babe results

Congrats to the lovely and talented ladies who competed today.

Results were the closest babe vote yet.  By raw votes- closer then the Bob McDonnell-Creigh Deeds race!

Gretchen Bulova 2,377 (52%)
Rita Albo 2,166 (48%)

Only one more 1st round vote to go before we start the quarterfinals!  That one is coming up later this week,