Gay Marriage

Same-Sex Couples Becoming More Acceptable in Richmond.

But How will it Play Back home?

Both the House and Senate have now voted on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

In a column here last week, "Not Gretchen Bulova" criticized both Tim Kaine and Creigh Deeds for not coming out stronger against this.

I don't think Not-Gretchen's critique was totally fair.  In fact, laying the issue itself aside, I think a few Democrats in certain districts have made their re-elections much more difficult because of this vote.

In Northern Virginia, Republicans voted 9 Yes, and 0 No (1 Not voting), while Democrats voted 1 Yes (Shannon) and 15 No. 

So, Republicans are for this amendment.  Shocker.  But, the big change has come in districts outside the beltway held by Democrats.

Last year when this resolution came up, 3 Democrats represented districts outside the beltway, Chap Petersen, Steve Shannon in swing districts and Ken Plum in Reston which has always been the Democratic stronghold outside the beltway (about 70% for Gore, Kerry etc.).

Outside the Beltway Democrats voted 2 Yes (Petersen, Shannon) and 1 No (Plum) last year.

This year, with new Democrats added in even more historically GOP districts, there was a remarkable flip.  Outside the beltway Democrats now voted 1 Yes (Shannon) and 5 No (Bulova, Marsden, Poisson, Caputo, Plum)

How did other groups besides NoVA Dems in the state vote?

Northern Virginia Republicans:  9 Yes, 0 No, 1 Not Voting
African American Majority Districts:  7 Yes, 3 No, 2 Not Voting
Republicans in White Majority Districts:  45 Yes, 1 No, 1 Not Voting
Democrats in White Majority Districts:  9 Yes, 3 No

The three Democrats voting no from white majority districts were David Toscano (UVA), Jim Shuler (VA Tech) and Shannon Valentine.

I'm not sure Valentine will survive re-election with this vote.  Her opponent is going to say "The first thing Shannon Valentine did was vote to deny you your vote on marriage".  No other Democrats voted for this bill from downstate white districts that don't have a major university.  Even some that do have one like Barlow (William and Mary) voted for it.

The fact is this.  Not-Gretchen was wrong to portray this vote as a "no brainer" for statewide Democrats.  It's a very tough position for them, especially before seeing how this sudden influx of No Votes from outside the beltway is going to play in their districts.

Of the No Votes, here's the list of the most vulnerable from it:

1)  Shannon Valentine- This one shocked everyone

2)  David Poisson- Loudoun is still conservative, and this gives the Dick Black types a reason to discuss social issues, instead of the issues that got Poisson elected.

3)  David Bulova-  What makes David vulnerable on this vote is a comparison to former Delegate Chap Petersen.  David had to use Chap to get himself elected, now Republicans can do a comparison piece, and show that David is moving the district left.

4)  Chuck Caputo-  Chuck has never planned to serve in the House a long time, so he'll do whatever he wants, re-election be damned.  Most voters might actually like his George Burns like attitude.

5)  Dave Marsden- The least vulnerable of the outside the beltway Democrats on this issue.  Why?   Jim Dillard was a Republican who opposed this, he will hide behind Dillard and say it was a "bi-partisan vote".  The difference in his Dillard cover, while Bulova has none is striking.

Last year we had zero "NO" votes cast from swing districts, so 2007 will see this played out for the first time.  What do you think will happen with this first time event?  Will anyone lose on this issue?

Comments

[not gretchen bulova]

I did not say it was a no-brainer for everyone, just for Kaine/Deeds. Deeds in particular.

I tend to agree about Valentine.

Most voters, including most swing voters do not decide their vote on this issue. I stand by that statement.

Gay marriage? Who cares. I want to know where these people stand on same-sex bathrooms. That issue could decide the '07 midterms.

I've given this due thought and consideration, and I strongly believe that we need a constitutional amendment that outlaws same-sex bathrooms.

Same-sex bathrooms are ruining the institution of bathroom. Next thing you know, they'll want to make it legal for dogs to use bathrooms. Once we travel down the slippery slope of toilet drinking dogs, it's only a matter of time before America devolves into a state of full scale anarchy. Sooner or leader, we'll lose all free will and middle class asians will be purchasing Americans as pets on ebay.

[ZB]

Shannon Valentine was asked at nearly every forum during her campaign about this. She repeatedly said that while she does not support same-sex marriage, this amendment goes too far and is unncessary. Sen. Newman ran ads attacking her for this position. She won with 57% of the vote. This was not a shocker. The people of Lynchburg whose last names are not Falwell could care less about this amendment.

Good Analysis Ben

The institution of toilet is under attack.

[ZB]

One other point--Bulova does have cover. 1) His district is just not that conservative and 2) John Mason, his opponent, also came out in the campaign AGAINST this amendment.

Chap was actually the one who was out of step with the voters on this amendment and it quite likely is the reason he is not presiding over the Senate as Lt. Governor today.

[Virginia Centrist]

I tend to agree. Nobody in Fairfax cares about gay marriage. I'd wager that a slim majority of Republicans don't even care.

[Virginia Centrist]

In fact - Republican candidates in NOVA risk a huge backlash for even bringing up the issue. It's pretty easy for Democrats to make them look like wild bigots.

[Willis]

I appreciate it when politics takes a back seat to doing what's right. It's important.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

Ben, I agree this could become an issue in some races.

However, this issue just doesn't register as that important for MOST voters. Nationally, about 64% of people believe GLBT couples deserve equal treatment under the law if not called marriage (read civil unions). It's not that far below in VA, at 59%. I think many people will be surprised at how many people end up voting against this amendment, particularly in NoVA, Richmond, Tidewater, and the SW university towns. Most people agree it goes too far. I spoke about it at the Amundson-Puller Town Meeting last weekend and my plea for people to vote against it received a tremendous applause.

Equality groups have a tremendous opportunity here to frame the debate and wage and effective campaign against this.

Dave Poisson was elected in Loudoun precisely because most voters were tired of and didn't agree with Black's social extremism. The district IS NOT as socially conservative as you make it out to be, being very well-educated and in 2003 anyway, 58% pro-choice. That doesn't mean there isn't a base of social conservatives out there, they're just not anywhere near a majority. We're about to have another test of this tomorrow, so we shall see.

It could be an issue in rural districts, but they mostly seem to have voted for it anyway.

In short, don't believe the hype. Most people just don't care, and on top of that, polls show people agree with rights.

I expect this to still pass statewide if most people don't get educated about the amendment and what it actually will do. That will depend on the campaigns that develop for and against it, and their respective funding.

[Rick Howell]

ZB is absolutely right. Shannon Valentine made it clear that while she believed marriage is between a man and a woman, she didn't want discrimination written into the constitution. The city of Lynchburg is trending so Democratic recently (except in federal elections), I don't think she'll be in trouble for this in her next race. She showed guts, which is why so many of us voted for her.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

Frankly, I am very disappointed to see that African-American district representatives are falling prey to the divisive fear and intolerance of this amendment.

As much as GLBT people, organizations, and resources have been brought to bear on standing up for all people's civil rights, I find it very disappointing.

I understand the African-American churches don't all support it, but again, one doesn't need to agree with full equality to be against this amendment, an attack on the very Bill of Rights that led to the end of enslavement and the equal status under the law for racial minorities that exists today.

I was happy to hear Al Sharpton and others recently, including Corretta Scott King and Kwiese Mfume, speak out about this topic.

[nova_middle_man]

going out on a limb here but I think this "issue" is a generational thing in addition to a party issue. The "gay" thing is an issue for some older republicans. However for dems and "most younger" republicans it's a I don't care or I'm with the dems issue. Surveys from high schoolers and college students confirm this with over 90% not caring or agreeing with same-sex couples.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

One more quickie observation: Interesting to me that Tom Rust didn't vote. That says a lot to me.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

Oh yeah, and although I just love the guy and think he's super nice (I was in the Sorenson Candidate Training with him in 2003), I am disappointed that Steve Shannon still can't see how this goes too far--enough so to vote against it.

If anything, Steve Shannon might have an issue in a Democratic primary over this!

[GOPHokie]

I think Valentine's vote if only a preview of what is to come from her. Her district is "moderate" but supports social issues. Bryant did a very good job of doing what his constituents wanted, she has started off on the wrong foot.
I think she will be a vulerable dem seat in '07 b/c she will vote or more things like the amendment that will fly in thr face of her consituents.

[Willis]

The people who voted for this piece of crap amendment just have penis envy.

[ZB]

Preston Bryant had a fairly pro-gay rights voting record, especially for a Republican. His Equality Virginia scores were consistently fairly high.

[Not Larry Sabato]

I'm pissed off no one is appreciating my graphic.

[Willis]

I don't know who those guys are, sorry.

[not gretchen bulova]

support for NGB's theory, I love it!

[J. Sarge]

Willis, that is the Clerk and Speaker of the House of Delegates. Given the amount you post, I would have thought you would have at least recognized Speaker Howell.

NLS, I thought that photo was a great way to lead off the discussion. Of course, neither is gay, nor should your picture be read as suggesting they are. But getting a picture of two guys in morning suits to title this topic was priceless.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Thanks J. Sarge. I worked very hard to take this picture.

[Willis]

I don't recognize the faces of most delegates.