House of Delegates Recap

With the Democrats bandwagon overturned in New Kent County, the GOP leadership in the House of Delegates is breathing a sigh of relief.  A swing of a couple percent yesterday could have led to a revolt within the Republican Caucus. 

With House special elections finished, here's the final results for the 05 Elections/06 Specials.

Northern Virginia Seats

WAS:  13 Republicans, 13 Democrats
NOW:  10 Republicans, 16 Democrats
NET:   PLUS 3 DEMOCRATS

Majority African American Seats

WAS:  0 Republicans, 12 Democrats
NOW:  0 Republicans, 12 Democrats
NET:  NO CHANGE

White Majority Seats- Outside of Northern Virginia

WAS:  47 Republicans, 13 Democrats, 2 Independents
NOW:  47 Republicans, 12 Democrats, 3 Independents
NET:  PLUS 1 Independent, MINUS 1 Democrat

All considered, neither party can take a complete victory out of this year. 

Democrats gained overall, but even with 2 special election victories, continue to lose seats in downstate, white districts.

Republicans lost seats overall, but with the exception of Lynchburg in the special election, only lost seats where Kaine coattails were strongest.

It's easy for Democrats to get over losses where Republicans outworked them (Frederick over Barg, Crockett Stark over Keister) or had built a constituency over time (Albo over Werkheiser) or even where a late scandal ended hopes (McQuigg over Porta).

But three other losses stand out as stinging defeats.  In the Valley (Lohr over Fulk), rural Virginia outside of Roanoke (Dudley over Ferguson) and now in Metro Richmond (Peace over Montgomery) Democrats fielded their best possible candidates and lost.  It's hard to imagine the environment for Democrats getting better then it has been the last few months. 

If Democrats can't start bringing some of these races home, in white majority districts outside of Northern Virginia, then they would have to sweep all 26 NoVA seats to take a majority.  That isn't going to happen.  For now, the Republican majority remains totally safe.

Comments

[NoVADemocrat]

All we have to do is knock out Albo, Mcquigg, Frederick, and Marshall and we're back in Business:-)

[Riley, Not O'Reilly]

Is that all you have to do? The firewall is at the Occoquan River (heck a little north of it in Fairfax with Albo thrown in.) NOVA residents who move down to PWC are mostly refugees seeking to escape the Dem enclacves, not export it to regions south.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

I agree with you 100% NLS, as long as you recognize that the "for now" is the key phrase.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

Yeah, Riley, I'm sure people relocating in NoVA are mainly motivated by political partisanship! Absolutely!

And you totally have it wrong. The people moving "out" from inner suburbs are Democratizing the outer suburbs. Look at Loudoun! And PWC will not be far behind. Parts of it (eastern) are already majority Dem.

Hell, even Tom Rust's district is over 55% Dem now. When he retires, the GOP can kiss the 86th goodbye. Kaine got 60%+ over there.

[not gretchen bulova]

Before Dems get too high about Loudon and PW, we need to wait and see what happens in the 33rd, and more importantly in 07. If the Dems perform well again, Loudon is becoming more Democratic, but also remember, Kaine ran on messages that appeal to Loudon/PW, Kilgore did not. Him winning is not necessarily indicative of a 100% switch there. It looks like a switch, but we need to wait and see.

[Rtwng Extrmst]

Good point not-Gretchen. And let's not forget that Mr. Kaine has now gone back on what he campaigned on with one of those major issues. There has to be some credibility gap for the Dems based on that (where's that transportation lock box?).

As to the numbers in the house, I will also say that two of those Republican losses in NOVA were formerly held by delegates who were quite cozy with Dems on many issues. So from a representative standpoint not much has changed. If the Republicans can put up some good candidates in those two seats in 07, they might just switch right back.

[Virginia Centrist]

Rtwng Extrmst:

While I'll be the first to say that Kaine's tax increase plan will anger some...

The "lockbox" isn't what excited PWC/Loudoun residents (or anyone else, for that matter).

It was the slow growth message. And, from the looks of it, Kaine is keeping his promise to expand growth controls for localities.

I'd also add that if anyone in the entire commonwealth is likely to support a tax increase for transportation, it's these outer suburbs. Particularly the residents who commute all the way to DC....

[Virginia Centrist]

By the way- your name is really hard to type!!!

[not gretchen bulova]

Centrist is right, most people believe the slow growth message won the day there.

[J. Sarge]

Interesting, NLS,

Democrats did field their best candidates in the three races you mentioned. Those seats are so heavily GOP, though. Are there no other areas (Tidewater, perhaps?) where Democrats could make gains in slightly friendlier territory? I'm not sure. I just remember hearing that Lohr's seat, percentage-wise, was the most GOP-friendly in the state. I think a second run by Ferguson could make a dent. I agree that the 97th is probably spent. Montgomery had all the advantages he could hope for (no Governor coattails to worry about, name recognition from a second run, weak candidate from a resume standpoint) in a second run and came up short. This was Fulk's second bite at the apple as well.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

Gretchen, you're right. But in the end, demographics will dictate the politics, and the demographics of Northern VA are incredibly promising for Democrats all around. You are right, and I am under no illusion that Loudoun is all-blue now, believe me, after having lived there for seven years, running the County Democratic Committee, and running against the likes of Eugene Del-Gotta-Go.

However, the election results since the early and mid-90's leading up to Tim Kaine's triumph tell the story.

[GOPHokie]

tidewater GOP seats are strong GOP usually. We will stay strong there as long as we run good candidates. The tide could be turned in NOVA as well if different candidates were run.

[not gretchen bulova]

There are a couple of targets in VA Beach, but with longer-term incumbents it is difficult. Plus, there is little Demo infrastructure there to support a candidate, so it is not easy to find good candidates.

Ben Cline's district is winnable also. So was Pollard's old district, obviously since he won it.

A big help to Democrats would be a Kellam or Ashe win. A popular Dem there would help drive candidate recruitment and money to VA Beach races.

[nova_middle_man]

The Republicans were smart when they designed districts. Gains are only occuring in areas with substantial changes in population.

Don't write off Loudoun just yet for the Dems. it's definetly purpleish instead of red but it's not blue yet. BOS is mostly republican also.

The 33rd result is going to be very telling. I view it as the last key preview for the 07 races up here in NOVA land.

[Riley, Not O'Reilly]

Doug, they're not moving out on account of partisanship. They're moving out on account of higher tax rates imposed by the ruling Democratic entities in Arlington / Alexandria / Fairfax.

And if Eastern PWC (where I live) is so Democratic, how is it that the Dems don't win too many elections there? NEWSFLASH!!! The new communities in Eastern PWC are bringing in a lot more GOPers. If Hilda Barg hadn't supported these developments and they hadn't been built, she would have beaten Frederick. How else to explain her losing on her home turf?

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

Riley, GOP margins in eastern PWC are always on local races, and they've been gettin' smaller and smaller. Time will tell. On the statewide and federal levels, there's no doubt with Warner, Kerry, and Kaine winning dozens of eastern PWC precincts, sometimes routing the GOP.

It's all demogrpahics. BTW, all that new development in Loudoun is sure bringing in tons of new Republicans too, isn't it? Time to face the music, sooner if not later...

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

"Doug, they're not moving out on account of partisanship. They're moving out on account of higher tax rates imposed by the ruling Democratic entities in Arlington / Alexandria / Fairfax."

People don't move because of politics. They move because of job locations, decisions to have a family, changes in family status, or if you're lower income, where you can get a decent place and a decent rent.

I assure you I didn't move from Loudoun to Mount Vernon because of taxes or politics, but because it cut my commute in half!

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

GOPHokie wrote:

"The tide could be turned in NOVA as well if different candidates were run."

The tide could be turned in NoVA if the GOP starts to take issues people up here care about, seriously. Hint: it's not gay marriage.

[asmith]

Miller has done a good job, and that seat is almost a lock for her now.

You can count on Dems running a good candidate, hopefully Phil Forgit, when he returns from duty, in a rematch against Melanie Rapp. The write in candidate received 10%.

Maybe there's a Hampton Dem that can run against Tom Gear that idiot.Gear does have a good base to get out his vote.

That's two seats there on the Peninsula that could be competitive.

If Kellam beats Drake then that may open up some Va Beach districts.

[asmith]

Miller has done a good job, and that seat is almost a lock for her now.

You can count on Dems running a good candidate, hopefully Phil Forgit, when he returns from duty, in a rematch against Melanie Rapp. The write in candidate received 10%.

Maybe there's a Hampton Dem that can run against Tom Gear that idiot.Gear does have a good base to get out his vote.

That's two seats there on the Peninsula that could be competitive.

If Kellam beats Drake then that may open up some Va Beach districts.

[J. Sarge]

I just ran the numbers and noticed that Kaine topped Kilgore in Del. Oder's district. Most of the precincts there seem competitive on the statewide level. Perhaps a strong Democrat from the Deep Creek precinct could mount a challege. I don't know the district well, but it's a thought.

I don't know much about Forgit either, but if he couldn't beat Rapp the last time, what makes next time different? A truly strong Dem should be able to beat Rapp decisively, no?

[Bill Kuster]

Peace, Cline and Wittman's seats are not competitive. There are a number of competitive seats, but they are closer to the urban cores...

[J. Sarge]

This didn't take long:

http://dela.state.va.us/dela/MemBios.nsf/ff235251ec74280685256b0500683c1c/69ca3cbec5ed3fa1852570fa00018ffd?OpenDocument&Click=85256823005F1997.f0a3d2c6f9f07af1852570bd00646e36/$Body/0.19E2

question if we lost keister and picked up bryants old seat shouldnt we be even in the majority white district south of nova