Lynchburg Special Election- UPDATED
Looks like today's special election is coming down to the wire. Turnout is lightest in Ward 2 (African American) but its always lightest there, so we can't make a judgement call on that.
Turnout may hit or exceed 25%, very large for a special election.
Both Shannon Valentine and Mike Harrington supporters feel good, and are predicting a victory. There's no way to tell for sure, this is a closely divided partisan district, with two very strong candidates. This election is coming down to who shows up, and I don't see anything to indicate that either candidate has gained a major upperhand in the morning voting.
Outlook: Toss Up
UPDATE: Turnout is highest in Ward 1 where both Valentine and Harrington live. This Ward is where the swing voters live, and voting is very strong.
Much weaker numbers in Ward 2, the heavy Democratic Ward.
Turnout is moderate to good in Wards 3 and 4. These are the heavy GOP areas.
Going into the evening voting, Harrington seems to have gained a slight leg up here.
UPDATE #2- Turnout in Ward 1 is so high that its tough to see what is going on here. Parts of Ward 1 could hit numbers within a few hundred of the Governor's Election. Wow! If these are Valentine voters she could win.
Shannon will win Ward 1 with margin. Based upon that, she will win it all.
Posted by: Not David Crain | January 10, 2006 at 03:52 PM
There could be Valentine voters showing up in Wards 3 and 4. I wouldn't give either candidate a leg up right now. Ward 2 always votes late.
Posted by: adam | January 10, 2006 at 03:57 PM
I'm predicting a Shannon sweep of Moreview Rd. and the retirement community off of Old Grain
Posted by: not gretchen bulova | January 10, 2006 at 04:06 PM
There were comments after the General Election that working people voting late would be Republican. I have never found late-in-the-day voters to be Republican. I would wager the peak time period for Republican margin is 11am.
Posted by: Bill Kuster | January 10, 2006 at 06:05 PM
Well we will know in a little while who's right.
I know this is a special election, but I remember in November that GOP types that were excited the turnout was down in Norfolk and Hampton and up in Chesapeake and Va Beach, and we know what happened.
Posted by: adam | January 10, 2006 at 06:21 PM
Does Shannon Valentine's 433-237 margin in the 3 Amherst County precincts tell us anything?
Posted by: ZB | January 10, 2006 at 07:20 PM
It tells us she is kicking ass. She lost one precinct with 45% that Kaine got about 40% in and won another with 55% that Kaine also got 40% in...
Posted by: | January 10, 2006 at 07:25 PM