Projected Winner

Mark Herring has defeated Mick Staton.  Margin:  TBD

UPDATE:  This is an ass kicking.  Has Staton even won a precinct yet?

UPDATE #2- Too Conservative says Staton lost every precinct.

Comments

[not gretchen bulova]

This is big for Democrats, this could show a shift in the Senate in '07.

23-17 now Republicans lead. 3 seats is not too much for Democrats in '07

[NLSgroupie]

What are you looking at? There aren't any numbers on the SBE website yet...

Ballsy.

[Bernie]

That's good news, but I'm not seeing any numbers from the SBE website. Is this the AP projection?

[not gretchen bulova]

Fairfax counting it reporting on their website

1400-700 for Herring with half the precincts in.

[Real Democrat]

groupie,

Check out http://www.co.fairfax.va.us/eb/webreports/countywide.htm

Fairfax Co. Returns are there.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

You're right.

My Lowes Island source tells me Herring won there with a margin of over 140 votes out of 800 some.

Poor Mick couldn't win in Dickie's home precinct!

[Bernie]

Mazol Tov!

[not gretchen bulova]

23-17, keep repeating that.

23-17

23-17

Death to Cucinelli and Black!!! They did this to us!!

[Bernie]

and now we're doing it to them.

[not gretchen bulova]

Cuccinelli, O'Brien, Devlites, Quayle, Rerras

MUST RAISE MONEY, MUST WIN SEATS IN '07.

FFC
Herring-1431 to 707

LC

[Real Democrat]

NGB:
Let's find the right candidates first and hope Colgan doesn't retire! Yes, I said retire, the man is like 100!

[not gretchen bulova]

If we won those 5 seats, we could lose Colgan and still be majority.

The only bad thing in this scenario:

Majority Leader Saslaw. I think we'd have to do sometihng about that.

No, Cucinelli and Black have a hand-picked candidate - Bob FitzSimmonds. Another loss in the making....

[Danny Plaugher]

Colgan is going to retire, and PWC does not have anyone to run for his seat because all the elected dems in PWC all went to school with JC

[ZB]

Bruce Roemmelt could win Colgan's seat if it's open.

[Real Democrat]

NGB:
Who would you reccomend? Deeds, Reynolds, Houck.... who?

[Joe in Tabb]

Houck would be nice but let's get those seats back in blue first.

[asmith]

Sources are telling me Herring got 62% in Hillside. Kaine got 52%. That's all I needed to know. Great job Herring campaign.

[ZB]

With 8 of 9 Fairfax pcts reporting, Mark Herring is up nearly 2 to 1---1959 to 968.

[DNW]

160-28 Herring over Staton in McNair??? My DOG could win more votes in McNair than Mick!

[Bernie]

anybody want to venture a guess as to why the SBE website is not functional?

[Real Democrat]

Joe,

You sound like a teacher..... I guess we should't put the cart before the horse. However, there is nothing wrong w/ speculating!

[Joe in Tabb]

I am a teacher, a proud VEA member, and I'm working on my dissertation focusing on the "politics of education."

[not gretchen bulova]

Deeds? ha!

Houck isn't awful.

[Joe in Tabb]

...and a proud Howard Dean Democrat!

[Real Democrat]

NGB:

I asked who? I didn't ask for laughter.

[Not Jack Herrity]

DNW, McNair is a really crappy precinct for any Republican so you can't look to that as a bellwether, although it is a rather lopsided margin. Look up McNair's history. Tom Rust lost the precinct to Jim Kelly, for Pete's sake.

A better precinct to look at would be Franklin, which is more conservative. Staton lost there as well. Not looking good for him right now.

NJH

[Joe in Tabb]

Bernie,

The numbers are coming up now.

[Bernie]

Thanks

[Not Jack Herrity]

What's with Loudoun? Can't they count out there?

If I see Black or Cucinelli on the street I am going to kick their a**es!!

[UVA08]

Right now the most "conservative" precint has been 62% Herring.

[Joe in Tabb]

Don't stoop to their level. The public has already done it for you!

[Real Democrat]

Who are we running against Rerras? Who are we running against Cuccinelli? Who are we running against O'Brien? I have a good idea who we should run against Davis.

[A Voter]

Anon, I doubt you will.

[Bernie]

has anybody seen anything from Loudoun?

[Josh Chernila]

Damn! Herring taking Staton to the woodshed. Wonder if he let him pick out his own switch.

[Real Democrat]

ONE MORE FOR THE "GOOD GUYS!"

[ZB]

Final Fairfax score:

Sen. Mark Herring 2289
Supevisor Staton 1103

Wow.

RD: greg galligan against o'brien

[Not Jack Herrity]

That's not final...one more to come in.

[not gretchen bulova]

Troy Farlow against Rerras

[ZB]

NJH--that one outstanding is "Provisional ballots." Don't expect a lot of those.

Anyone endorsed by Cuccinelli loses. He is the kiss of death in Nova.

[Real Democrat]

Farlow? HA!

[not gretchen bulova]

he's from the ES, the perfect place to win that district.

[The Ghost of Tom Joad]

Ouch...there's no doubt now that there is a shift in Fairfax for the Democrats...

[Joe in Tabb]

Look at those numbers NOW

[not gretchen bulova]

Staton lost EVERY precinct!

[uva08]

Loudon is coming... we crushed this one!

[James Young]

Why shouldn't Virginians put a Democrat majority in the Senate? After last year and Senator Tax-chester et al., we might as well have one.

[Joe in Tabb]

How many of these Loudoun precincts are in the First CD?

[Real Democrat]

NGB:
Have you ever met the fella'? My advice is that you do that first.

[wayne ozmore]

Hey not Gretchen Bulova:
Just what makes you think any incumbent Republican in the 4th Congressional District, such as Sen. Fred Quayle, is vunerable? Please try to articulate your response, and when you do, please be aware that both AG Bob McDonnell and LT. Gov. Bill Bolling easily won in Quayles District and Kilgore even won in Quayles district. So do tell me what is in your tea leaves or are you just sllightly over-reaching due to the giddiness of this win in the 33rd? Come on, lets engage in a real political discussion. Sincerely, Wayne Ozmore, Chairman 4th Congresional District Republican Committee

Herring wins with 61% wow

The SBE Website has the Herring win at 63% of the vote! This is more then a simple disaster, this is a repudiation of the Republican Party in the richest, fastest growing jurisdiction in the country!

[not gretchen bulova]

Yes I have Real Democrat. Talking of Saslaw right? He's not my kind of politician, I find him to be secretive/behind doors type of guy, instead of a more open politician.

[not gretchen bulova]

If you are talking about Farlow, no, but I have heard good things about him.

Maybe I'll take a stroll to the ES and meet him :)

James Young -

This vote was against YOU and Chichester; you both suck.

Ben you got egg all over your face!!! IF you couldn't predict this, then you're a total moron!

[The Ghost of Tom Joad]

Ben-

What Senate seats are Republican that are in NOVA right now? I know Cuccinelli is one are there others?

[not gretchen bulova]

Wayne, thanks for coming!

Quayle's Senate District is made up of heavy Bolling/McDonnell areas, so the numbers from '05 are slanted towards the Republicans just a bit. They aren't necessarily indicative of what a Democrat from that area could do....

It's a place where the right Democrat could make a strong challenge.

[NLSgroupie]

Yo, Anon 8:18--
Can't even come up with a snazzy pseudonym with which to insult Ben? Where was YOUR prediction, smartypants??

[George Templeton]

Social issues aren't selling anymore for conservatives. They need to focus more on fiscal conservativism and good (not bigger) government. A personal style that is lighter than Dick Black wouldn't hurt either.

[ZB]

Ghost of TJ:

NoVA Senate districts held by Republicans:

Devolites Davis
Cuccinelli
O'Brien
Potts

I guess you could say Chichester (as part of his district strethces into Fauquier/Prince William).

[wayne ozmore]

Gretchen: I have been coming for some time now, more so on the conservative BLOGS, but thanks for the welcome anyway. With respect to your analysis, Bolling's state Senate District is over twenty to thirty miles north of the farthest boundary of Quayles Senatorial District. Totally different areas and politics. When in the Richmond area, there is one rule in politics: South of the James River and North of the James River. We take care of our business very well South of the James River and we will be prepared for any eventuality and challenger that should enter the arena against one of our Incumbents. I can't speak for anyone but our folks down here, but we run a true team operation and the voters see this and honor this great tradition in Southside, VA. Best wishes to your side in candidate selection.

[UVA08]

Retaking the State Legislature is very important. We can do away with these gerrymandered districts that have resulted in my area (charlottesville-Albemarle) being placed with counties on the North Carolina boarder (over a 100 miles away)

[The Ghost of Tom Joad]

Thanks ZB!

Davis and Cuccinelli can go down!

Potts might get a primary challenge and if he loses the Dems can pick up that one too!

Staton lost every single precinct including his own!

I bet he doesn't get re-elected next year.

Staton lost every single precinct including his own!

I bet he doesn't get re-elected next year.

[Lowell]

Great work, Ben. Your 99.5% accurate streak continues. :)

[wayne ozmore]

NGB:

I just wanted to leave you with a few last nuggetts for thought regarding Sen. Quayles District. The western end of his District includes the following localities: Prince George County, the City of Hopewell, and portions Isle of Wight County and Surry County. Here is some "inside baseball" for you regarding the level of Republican activity in these areas, the western portion of Senator Quayles district. In Hopewell, VA: Incumbent Commonwealth Attorney Anthony Sylvester switches to the Republican Party in 2003 leaving independent status behind. Hopewell Clerk of Circuit Court Hon Kay H. Rackley runs as a Republican and wins, making her the first Republican to ever win this seat and she did so in 2003. In Prince George County, the Republican party won control of the Board of Supervisors and the School Board for the first time ever in 2003. While parts of Virginia are clearly trending the dems way, Senator Quayle's district is not. In fact, Sen. Quayles district is trending the Republican way as evidenced by the aforementioned pick ups of control of the entire government in certian jurisdications that wholly comprise the western end of Sen. Quayles District. So, how do you support your statement "so the numbers from '05 are slanted towards the Republicans just a bit" when Sen. Quayles whole Senatorial District has been trending heavily towards the Republican Party for the last three years--even when we remove the 05 races altogether? I am trying to in your logic. Thanks for the benefit of your response. Sincerely, Wayne J. Ozmore, Jr., Chairman, 4th Congressional District Republican Committee.

The so-called "conservatives" started a war in which they won the battles but have lost the war.

Enjoy the fruits of your "victory".

Good bye Dickie!
Good bye Mickie!

Go home. The people have spoken.

-Ten Bribbett

wayne - you sound like a dick.

I haven't seen an ass-pounding like this since HBO took "Oz" off the air. What a spanking! That big sound down in Sully district is sound Cuccinelli shitting bricks!

[Riley, Not O'Reilly]

I agree with Jim Young on this one. Wouldn't be much of a difference if the Dems did run the state senate. The good thing about that would be Chichester would lose his chairmanship. Of course, the weasel would probably find some way to cut a deal to hold on to it.

[Riley, Not O'Reilly]

Oh, and Colgan is going to retire. Perhaps a member of his family will run for the seat. Of course, they're all Republicans, though.

[Rtwng Extrmst]

I wouldn't be so fast to proclaim the end of Sen's Cuccinelli and Obrien. Alot can happen in 1 1/2 years. And whoever thinks the dems will take Potts seat is smoking something.

A lot of these guys (e.g., cucinelli, o'brien) will try to re-invent themselves to save their skins. Question is whether the voters have long memories. By 2007, Cuccinelli will be doing some sort of Davis/Connaughton impersonation and hoping to hold on.

[Hokie]

I don't think Colgan is going to retire. He would be 81 at the next election, but he is in GREAT health and he knows that he is the only Democrat that could win in that district. Don't assume he's going just b/c of his age.

[wayne ozmore]

Hey Anon: January 31, 2006 at 10:01 PM; if you have any skills in writing or politics, try putting them on display in honest debate. I assume your an adult, try blogging like one.

[Bruce]

Just a comment on WashPost coverage - how is a 2-1 drubbing subheaded as "Slow-Growth Advocate EDGES GOP Rival" [my emphasis added]?

Is 62-38 really only edging out the other guy.

Just seems like they wrote the headline when they thought it would be close and then never updated it.

[ZB]

Wayne--don't make assumptions. A great many of the posters in the Virginia blogsphere are not adults :).

Clearly, you know the 4th district better than most of us. I'd just say that there seems to be a growing sense across VA that the Warner/Kaine brand of governing is indeed working. It also seems that the conservative wing of the Republican Party (Club for Growth, RSVP, etc.) seems to be showing a preference of dividing the GOP and losing to supporting more moderate Republicans. While Sen. Quayle is not Russ Potts, he has indeed shown himself to be one of the most moderate Republicans in Richmond --- supporting tax reform, voting for GLBT equality, etc. Look how close Del. Peace came to losing in a hugely Republican district. Virginia is changing and whether that's hit the 4th district yet, anything could happen in 2007. Sincerely, ZB (Zaphod Beeblebrox), frequent anonymous poster and several-time nominee for this blog's Weenie of the Week award.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

I love reading Republicans' comments on here who STILL think that these special elections are not a COMPLETE rebuke of:

1) Right-wing extremism
2) Anti-tax fervor
3) Lack of faith in good government

Virginians are clearly impressed with the good governance of moderate, responsible, and bipartisan Democratic leaders.

As well they should be.

I can't wait to see Mark Herring again and shake his hand.

While I agree that Democrats cannot get too giddy and just assume that we WILL beat Devolites Davis, Cuccinelli, and/or O'Brien, clearly all three should be making the "Threatened Species List". However, if the Fairfax County Democrats listen to the grassroots about running good moderately progressive candidates against these folks, and be EXTREMELY careful about how we govern in the next year, we've got a great chance to take back the Virginia Senate.

Don't underestimate how hard the Davis machine will be fighting to keep his wife and the others in NoVA, because if he's still in office (and chances are pretty good he will be) he will bring incredible resources to bear.

We Democrats have proven, however, that we have and can muster the necessary resources, but also the necessary grassroots enthusiasm, energy, and ACTION to sweep NoVA and take control of Virginia's agenda.

[Staton is my supervisor]

Tim Kaine's address to the nation was the perfect follow-on to the Mark Herring victory. People want good government that can deliver services efficiently with measurable results. Staton's track record on delivering good government, like his father-in-law our dearly departed Rep Dick Black, is lousy. He doesn't believe in funding public schools or limiting development.
His campaign literature was a joke. Pretending to be the growth-limiting candidate and public school advocate--it was as if he was running against himself. Even in a 2-week special election, people who care could see the difference between what each candidate really stood for. The choice was easy. Pick the candidate who genuinely cares about education and solving traffic problems.
People in NOVA get it. They are no longer confused by stupid slogans like "no more car tax" with no revenue to replace it. They have become enlightened to the results of governing the way Gilmore did and Allen before him. When your governor's greatest contribution is to create a prison building industry as something to brag about, (Gov Allen) you know people will eventually come to their senses. Republicans better get the message and quit trying to interfere in the personal choices of their constituents and provide good government or they will be on their way out. Some of those wing nuts in Loudoun who said Kilgore lost because he wasn't right wing enough are probably reevaluating that now. Some I'm sure still don't get the message. They probably wish Dick Black was still there so he could have voted against the recently passed law rescinding the ability to give minors the death penalty. Even most Republicans realized that was a social concept that wouldn't play anymore (thanks to a ruling by the pre-Roberts/Alito Supreme Court ). Get on board, the train's leaving the station.

[David]

I don't think Staton will be your supervisor for very much longer.

Sadly, I know some of those wingnuts, and they're not reevaluating, they're lashing out. They can't claim that Staton wasn't right wing enough, so they're blaming moderates for allegedly not working hard enough for him or giving him enough money. It's ludicrous. Minchew brought more of the moderates who had been completely turned off back through his primary run, and then asked them to support Staton - he still got creamed.

It's also funny how low turnout suddenly switched from being a positive sign for Staton in the morning to being a terrible, terrible sign of voter apathy. How'd that happen? I still marvel at the idea that any political party would count on low turnout for favorable results and state so publicly, but I suppose I'm being hopelessly naive.

Good governance. I want it, and I don't much care who does it. "Vote for Mick, he'll keep your taxes low" does not cut it. It insults people's intelligence, even without the big brother personal life intrusions.

[MSC IT dissertation]

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