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1) It means that the 2 party system WILL return to the legislature... like I have been saying throughout the election cycle the Democrats need to continue to work the grassroots... but it wont matter much until we can see it happen outside of NoVA on a sonsistent basis.


3)Kaine is raising his stature accross the board... with the warner machine and his new additions to it... he is going to be tough to beat at... well almost anything

4)focus on 9 competetive democratic races in northern Virginia ;)

5) I hearted Kaine's response :)

6) does anyone have a copy of the old NLS drinking game...

Ben Tribbet is useless when it comes to providing analysis. If he could not forsee this knind of blow out in Northern Virginia, his very own stomping ground, what use is he. I guess we have to wait for his Monday Morning quaterbacking and then he can tell us why Herring stomped Staton. Yawn.

The Ghost of Tom Joad

#2)If the Democrats get a solid candidate in the 11th (Hurst?), they could make Davis vulnerable this year. Whenever Davis leaves, this seat flips immediately.

Wolf will be there until we can redistrict.

#6) What was the worst campaign sign you saw this past election season?


Sorry...shameless self-plug.

I would like to add question 7). Do you believe Ben Tribbet has anything smart or useful to say or do you believe Ben Tribbet has provided a forum for people interested in Virginia politics to congregate.

I believe that the analysis on this site by NLS and other contributors is very weak. I do, however believe that this site allows the same 20 people to talk to each other about politics.


6) agreed on the yard sign...

6a) still waiting on the drinking game :)

Not Larry Sabato

I'm going to bed, but anonymous comments 1109 and 1119, its obvious you are one person when you keep spelling my name incorrectly.


When I saw you earlier today I forgot to ask you to take notice of something.... Who were the poll workers from Dems ?? average age ?? and did you notice almost without exception, that there was serious ground game teamwork going on, continuous new signs all day, plenty of good literature, PR, TV, Radio, etc. Nothing really new except that it was the Dems doing it this time instead of the Republicans.... even us old farts can learn eventually when we get our tails kicked, OBTW, most every person who worked the polls today for the FCDC Dems was a senior level professional, yes there were house wives and other dedicated volunteers, but for each of those there were a half dozen doctors, lawyers, engineers, computer professionals, CEO's, etc. etc. people who pay more in just their personal taxes each year than a half dozen of the youngsters that were the main stay of the GOP volunteers get paid combined. And why ??? because things have to change, and SOON..... you can analyse your statistics all you want, but it doesn't really indicate the groing new attitude and anger that this administration and it's cronnies are generating. It's changing moderates and independents into activists, notice I didn't say extremists.....

why didnt you predict that ben your site sucks now



I noticed a lot of the same things during the november election day... this is a move of moderates back to the party... they have been alienated by the Rove strategy of playing to the far right... this worked for a quick fix in '04 but now it has turned off a lot of the Republican base... I would bet they sold off their future power by playing out to the extremes

Jimmy Ray

2) I think a better question is how blue do Tom Davis and Frank Wolf have to go before we start calling them Democrats?

4) Great site, Ben. I wouldnt get caught up on guessing on a bunch of local races. Funny how the same people who call your site "useless" are USING YOUR SITE! I dont think anyone foresaw the recent butt-kickings that have Reps like myself very concerned.

Hate to say it, but used2be has it right. The Democrats are showing impressive grassroots. Although, you use the word "cronies" for just about every Republican. Whats the deal with that?

BS - The B stand for Ben

Thats horseshit and you know it. You get about 140 unique visitors on a day like today.

So guess what the S stands for?


The backlash has begun. Its an ebb and flow. Since Republicans control all 3 federal government branches and are screwing everything up, there will be a backlash.

NOVA Republicans are being caught in the undertoe.

George Templeton

1)Thanks to Potts/Chichester-type Repubs. in the Senate we have had two-party gov't for the last 2 years

2)Bluer than it ever will be to get Frank Wolf out; agree with earlier poster, when Davis leaves his seat goes to a Democrat

3)I think they can if they are substantive with their growth plans in a manner similar to what Philip Hamilton and other repubs were today (it was on Conaway Haskins' South of the James blog I think

4)I think you do a fine job of covering the Gen. Assembkly elections, no matter what certain anonymous posters say.

5) Haven't seen it all the way through. Did hear Kaine repeat the oft-stated fabrication about cuts in Medicare. I am going to repeat this slowly for everyone. A cut in growth is NOT AN [EXPLETIVE DELETED] CUT! If you are spending more $$ than the year before you ain't cutting!

6) When are the anonymous posters who rip you get some guts and least post an alias or there real name?

There rant over. Thanks for good work Not Larry Sabato.


Jimmy Ray,
My use of the word cronnies was not attached to a particular party as much as to a particular adminstration and the people they have hired at all levels.... The fact that they call themselves Republicans is purely coincidental. I really am venting the frustration over the incompetance and social affilation (Ie. friends, roomates, campaign contributors) being the primary reason for the selection of subordinates in critical agencies like FEMA etc. rather than their actual experience and skill sets.

The term "Cronnies" that I used is to describe only incompetent jerks that are almost purely hand selected for their physical appearences usually.

Doug in Mount Vernon

Why is it that NoVA Democrats have been talking about this shift happening in local politics for 5-6 years now, and the GOP never took it seriously? It's funny, I remember a day in 1999, when a certain Sterling District School Board member (now) told me that my precinct in Sterling Park (Rolling Ridge) was "the most Republican precinct in Loudoun County and maybe in Northern Virginia".

Funny, that precinct has just voted 52% for Kerry in 2004, 56% for Kaine in 2005, and now 58% for Herring in 2006.

I told the GOPers out ther that this was coming in 2000. They laughed.

Boy does it feel good to be the one laughing tonight. And unless the GOP gets its act together and begins to value civil liberties, civil rights, and honesty in politics again, it's just gonna get worse.

And I have to agree that Cuccinelli, Devolites Davis, and O'Brien are all three in pretty deep doo-doo.


George Templeton its MediCAID NOT Medicare -- they are two very different programs, so learn the difference. And cuts in services are cuts in services even if they are just effected by "slowing the growth." Seniors and persons with disabilities under 100% of the federal poverty level would be subjected to UNLIMITED !!! cost sharing in copays & premiums if they live in the community -- but not institutions. Even though Home and Community Based services are 1) preferred by most beneficiaries; and, 2) less expensive. This is bad policy but it is precisely what the GOP Medicaid proposals do.
Read it and weep. Unless Virginia Representatives and others wise up, they'll have a lot of explaining to do when there are more uninsured Americans and health outcomes decline in the years to come!

nova middle man

1. You are seeing a direct Tim Kaine effect right now which was not apparent in November. His growth and tax/fee proposals have support from a majority of Virginians

2. Tom Davis and Frank Wolf are "moderates" and incumbents. I heard recently there is a dem challenger for Wolf (haven't confirmed yet) and the challengers for Davis are running too far to the left in my humble opinion to pose a real threat. You will notice Davis is having more fundrasiers earlier out than normal so he takes the opposition seriously which is a good thing.

3. House Republicans have released their own growth/planning proposals so it should be interesting to see what growth/planning proposal actually passes

4. Have on the ground reporting :) Mary did a good job on Raising Kaine

5. George Bush hammered hi s talking points and Tim Kaine hit his. The problem for the dems nationally is that they need an alternative plan. They can't keep criticizing with no solutions. The republicans fixed this problem in Virginia with #3. I know the dem plan is coming out in 2006 but I don't see it yet.

6. If we have learned one thing its that moderates win. Republicans do you really want George Allen. Democrats do you really want Hillary Clinton.

McCain vs Warner in 08 The extremists are not the solution :)


6) I have decided that my favorite part of listening to people who have never seen kaine speak before is their reaction to his eyebrow... like this doozy from Bill in Portland Maine on dKos'Cheers and Jeers:

"The Democratic response was given last night by Virginia Governor Tim Kaine and what appeared to be a caterpillar on a crack high dancing to The Village People just above his left eye. Hey Winky...if you don't have an agent, give me a call. Yer good, kid...reeeal good."

Not Jack Herrity

On a serious and sad note, I just heard that my namesake, the real Jack Herrity, died this morning at his home.

I hope we will keep his family in our thoughts and prayers.


Not Ken Plum

NJH - Wow... Jack Herrity passed away? Had he been ill? I saw him a couple of months ago speaking at one of the MetroWest hearings, and I thought to myself, "He's going to run for BoS Chairman again. And he very well might win." He seemed in good health then.

My thoughts and prayers are with his family.


1) I think what we're seeing is something of a delayed reaction. Warner and Kaine won in 2001 by a relatievely small margin because people decided to give them a chance. It took them a while to find their footing--but their approval ratings steadily rose over the past 4.5 years. The legislative results tended to correspond, but slowly. At first, Democrats struggled in special elections in the GOP gerrymandered districts--Belter and Lynch losing to Cuccinelli and O'Brien. In 2003, things were a little better for the Democrats (+3 in the House, -1 in the Senate). In 2004, Paula Miller showed that Democrats could now compete in GOP leaning areas. In Nov. 2005, we saw more of these gains still, with GOP losing two more seats in the House and disappointing in all three statewide races. Now, with the special elections (not counting the virtually uncontested Cavendish/McDougle race) we're seeing that the coattails and shift toward the Democrats are really working. In four at least GOP leaning areas, Democrats have won three races by stunningly lopsided numbers (Bowling 60.3-28, Valentine 57.5-42, Herring 61.6-38) and lost the third by a mere 219 votes (50.8-48.3). That's a trend.

5)Gov. Kaine took a minute to find his rhythm (he seemed a little slow at first) but I thought he did a really solid job... managing to attack the weaknesses of this administration and contrast with a positive message without seeming bitter (Dole's 1996 response to Clinton) or wimpy (Jennifer Dunn, Tom Daschle).

Not Larry Sabato

NJH, sad news indeed.

Not Jack Herrity

I only hope that if I stay crotchety enough, I'll keep his famous legacy alive. He was a controversial figure to be sure, but I don't think anyone should underestimate the positive impact he had on Fairfax County.


Not Larry Sabato

Well, it ruins my theory of who NJH is...

Not Ken Plum

Herrity was indeed controversial (to put it mildly), but he was a larger-than-life figure, always colorful, and a lot of good did happen in Fairfax County on his watch. The NoVa political scene is poorer for his loss.

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