The Curse of the Hutch Returns

Democrats have now won back to back House special elections by much larger margins than expected.

What is going on here?

I went down to the 3rd district special election with Chap last week, and talked to people who were in Lynchburg this weekend for the Democrats.  In both cases, volunteers were marveling at how good the Get Out the Vote (GOTV) lists were.  When I did calls in Tazewell, I got about a 95% favorable response from people on the list.

These short campaigns don't have time to come up with their own lists.  The GOTV being done is from the November Governor's race.  It makes good sense, since you can't expect many people who don't know the candidates personally to vote for Delegate if they didn't at least vote for Governor in November.

It appears that Tim Kaine's campaign has left behind an excellent GOTV list, while Jerry Kilgore's disorganized effort has left Republicans a list that doesn't even compare.

Here are some numbers from tonight's special election that back this theory up:

In the 1st Ward of Lynchburg City, where both Shannon Valentine and Mike Harrington live, the numbers looked like this

Tim Kaine, in November 2,834 votes
Shannon Valentine, today 2,750 votes
2750/2834= Valentine pulls out 97% of Kaine vote

Jerry Kilgore, in November 2,733 votes
Mike Harrington, today 2,194 votes
2194/2733= Harrington pulls out 80% of Kilgore vote

In the 2nd Ward, where Harrington made a point of publicly skipping the candidate's forum, the GOTV margin increased.

Tim Kaine, in November 1,786 votes
Shannon Valentine, today 1,621 votes
1621/1786= Valentine pulls out 91% of Kaine vote

Jerry Kilgore, in November 409 votes
Mike Harrington, today 267 votes
267/409= Harrington pulls out 65% of Kilgore vote

In the 3rd Ward, Valentine's numbers continue much higher than Harrington's.

Tim Kaine, in November 1,375 votes
Shannon Valentine, today 1,148 votes
1148/1375= Valentine pulls out 83% of Kaine vote

Jerry Kilgore, in November 1,732 votes
Mike Harrington, today 1,135 votes
1135/1732= Harrington pulls out 66% of Kilgore vote

In the 4th Ward, the numbers continue to stay very similar.

Tim Kaine, in November 2,068 votes
Shannon Valentine, today 1,799 votes
1799/2068= Valentine pulls out 87% of Kaine vote

Jerry Kilgore, in November 2,577 votes
Mike Harrington, today 1,833 votes
1833/2577= Harrington pulls out 73% of Kilgore vote

Finally, in the Amherst precincts the results get even uglier for Republicans, and Democrats stay almost identical.  This is where both Lynchburg candidates had the fewest contacts- and thus party infrastructure was most important.

Tim Kaine, in November 507 votes
Shannon Valentine, today 433 votes
433/507= Valentine pulls out 85% of Kaine vote

Jerry Kilgore, in November 516 votes
Mike Harrington, today 238 votes
238/516= Harrington pulls out 46% of Kilgore vote

If my theory is correct, and it is based on the results and what I saw and heard first hand, then Republicans are in deep trouble.  It appears Tim Kaine/Mike Henry have left behind a serious Democratic organization, and Jerry Kilgore/Ken Hutcheson have not left the same for Republicans. 

As such, I am changing the rating for the upcoming 97th House special election from "Leans Republican" to "Toss Up", and changing the 33rd Senatorial Special Election rating from "Toss Up" to "Slight-Lean Democratic Pickup". 

Next years midterm elections have very similar voting patterns to these recent special elections.  Republicans better figure out how to fix the "Curse of the Hutch" before that or they could lose the General Assembly.

Comments

[Shaun Kenney]

I could have drawn precisely the opposite conclusion by dissecting the 4th Senate District results, where McDougle carried with 80% or better, don't you think?

Looking strictly at the numbers, it doesn't look as if the GOP had a chance unless the Dems fell asleep at the switch (which clearly didn't happen).

Why then would you make the leap and say that Lynchburg represents the whole of Virginia, much less GOP strongholds such as Hanover County?

Just curious!

[Not Larry Sabato]

Shaun, the difference is both the 3rd and 23rd House districts were targeted by both parties with major resources. The same can not be said of the 4th Senate, so it is much harder to draw any conclusions from that.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Also, I would add these last two losses were in swing districts, not Democratic districts. The 3rd House district was carried by George W. Bush in 04, and Kilgore in 05, while the 23rd House district did exactly what Virginia did as a whole- voting twice for Bush, and for Warner and Kaine.

[Shaun Kenney]

Targeted in what sense though? I really haven't felt much emphasis or call to action in either of those districts.

Does that mean we're worse off than the Dems? Perhaps, but I really don't see the 3rd District as a huge loss on the order of Dick Black (which I would attribute to complacency plus a fluke rather than a true shift in the electorate).

When true swing districts start falling, the GOP can start panicking. If the 97th drops into Democratic hands, that'll prove your theory right without question.

Shaun,

Wake up! More people voted today to replace a Republican incumbent with a Democrat than voted for the Republican incumbent unopposed on the general election day. The 7% turnout for the 4th Senate special ought to have you worring about minority status once again in both houses.

2007 will be disasterous for the Republican Party; it will become the minority in Richmond. Thanks to the efforts of a few, it will be a collection of white, self-aggrandizing, egotistical and career-minded politicans who will fall over each other trying to prove they are more "conservative." Meanwhile, the Democratics will stand by in disbelief.

[John Dalton]

NLS --

I don't think the 3rd is a swing district. Rather, it is a Democratic district that the Dems lost on 2004 on the Presidential ballot.

That said, I agree with Shaun about the importance this adds to the 97th. I would argue that the same holds true in the 33rd Senate District as well.

To anon 1:29, please keep in mind that ballot fall-off is pretty high when a downballot Delegate candidate is unopposed. Thus, not much can be discerned from comparing Valentine's vote totals in yesterday's special to Bryant's totals last November.

Whether yewsterday does highlight is one heck of a Democrat GOTV effort. The Dems should be quite proud of their efforts on that front.

[nova_middle_man]

Don't write off the Republicans yet. However, these recent events have placed more pressure on the 33rd senate Republican firehouse primary on Monday. The question for republicans is the ability of the party to adapt and appeal to different regions across the state.

[not gretchen bulova]

I do agree NLS might be reaching a little bit on this one, but I think his overall point makes for interesting discussion.

Shaun is correct, if the Dems are able to win the 97th, then I think it will show that Republicans should be shaking in their boots come Nov 07.

This is sort of like the 03 and 04 national special elections, Democrats kicked ass in territory they normally don't, and in turn expected to do well in 04 elections. I think we all know what happened then...

Exactly NGB - State and Federal Elections simply do not translate with one another in Virginia. This phenomenon is certainly not a good omen for 2007, but carries absolutely no weight in 2006. All Incumbents are victorious this year (with relative ease)

[Auntie Entity]

Better reconsider this entry, NLS. The whole effort to develop better call lists came from Alan Moore and the CC. This kind of flies in the face of blaming him for losing everything but Gov and weakens Alan's possibilty of sharing his award of Weenie of the Year with Hutch. That just wouldn't do, you know.

Oh well, we're getting into inaug mode, let bygones be bygones and we'll enjoy a great weekend.

I would break things down like this:

3rd - Democrat District - Dems won as they should have

23rd - Swing District - Dems won and that says something

97th - Republican District - if the Dems win, it would say even more

I guess the voter lists left by the Kaine (coordinated) campaign are pretty good. In fact, I think Alan Moore may have known what he was doing and did it well.

I also think that the House Caucus and Democratic Party must know what they are doing as well.

In fact, NLS has blasted the VA Dem political operations repeatedly but it is Speaker Howell who now has lost 6, count them SIX, seats since he took over.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Actually Howell has lost 7 seats, with Democrats picking up six and Indy's getting one. On top of another one being in trouble in the 97th.

[Too Moderate]

I have been told that there are a number of elected/former electeds in the 33rd with their own lists. Which seems to be part of the Republican party problem, yet bodes well for the Republican if they do indeed pass on the lists.

As someone who lives in the 23rd district, I'm not surprised in the least by the outcome. After having an incumbent GOP delegate who was the ringleader of a tax hike who then took a job from the Dem governor, we're harassed daily (sometimes several times a day) by phone calls to vote for Harrington. I'm 30, conservative, and had voted Republican in every election since I was 18, but I didn't vote yesterday in protest of this idiotic tactic. By Tuesday I was fed up with it. I've talked to a dozen others who felt the same way and didn't vote.

[slaythewicked]

If each GOP elected has their own list in the 33rd, that could prove to be a big problem for the GOP because it'll be extremely difficult to cross reference all these lists in a short period of time and use their time efficiently. the biggest difference with the dems is that we have a coordinated voter file which is shared...hence the good GOTV lists that NLS received for the special election.

[SE VA MWC Alum]

Anon 10:19 am-agree with you on that one. Also NGB had a point-the 3rd is a Dem district who voted for Bush. Also remember for a long time there was a strong VA Dem but national Republican group in VA politcs. While this group was much weaker from 97-04 they may now be reawakening. The Dems appear to be on the upswing now but two years is a long time. Dont know how much this effects november 06 and 07

[truthteller]

Anon 5:11

Can we have some more cheese with that WHINE? It is really rich to hear the party that tried to barrage Democrats in Arlington with phony recordings of Tim Kaine and selling Russ Potts as the real progressive, bombarding our airwaves with the Hitler-death penalty ads crying foul over "Dem-o-crat har-ass-ment"

Cry me a river. You lost fair and square and you and your dozen friends would not have impacted the vote for Harrington by one-tenth of one percent.

Just one correction from the Anon's about Alan Moore and coordinated in Lynchburg. There was no coordinated campaign presence in Lynchburg; just the Lynchburg area volunteers and a TK regional field staffer who based out of Lynchburg. The party there is stronger than you'd think.

[Mike]

If the 97th falls to a Dem, an event I consider highly unlikely, it will have more to do with the individual candidates and less to do with either state party.

[hehheh]

Sorry kids, but the CC is not going to give up its secrets no matter how you poke and prod. Yes, they had excellent lists... and plenty more tricks up their sleeves. But unlike the Republicans, who let every joeschmoe off the street onto their strategies and onto their voter file, the Dems did a great job this year of misdirection in many of their field operations, holding most of their cards close to their chests. If you want to know where the coordinated campaign was working out of in 2005, all you have to do is look at the counties that saw huge increases over Warner's performance. Almost every single last one was a CC county.

Let's just say that Dems learned a heck of a lot from 2005 as far as how to run a grassroots field campaign while keeping the Republicans in the dark.

[Corey]

I agree with NLS' analysis. I also wanted to add that there is a story out today on the finances of the race and it says that Valentine raised an amazing $260,000 for the three-week race. Harrington brought in $155,000.

According to my math Valentine out raised 133 of 151 Delegate candidates (including incumbents) from last year's general election, and had the "luxury" of being forced to spend it all in three weeks.

[Corey Hernandez]

Link

http://www.newsadvance.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=LNA/MGArticle/LNA_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1128769291775&path=