Not Larry Sabato

Evidence is mounting against Harris

Earlier today I brought you the story of a mysterious poll that went out on Wednesday.  As I told you earlier, my source was an elderly lady, who while extraordinarily lucid for her age was still almost ninety years old.  I gave you that information so you could fairly judge the details and source yourselves without me identifying them.  Some details about questions asked or other tone inferred were tough to get, but she was positive that the caller had claimed to be from the Virginia Democratic Party.

As we all agreed earlier, the Virginia Democratic Party would not do such a poll during a primary.  Thus a potential scandal was born, calls being made that misidentify themselves.  We wanted to know who was responsible!

To hear about one call means thousands others were attempted, so I put up a story hoping to get more details.  We hit the jackpot.  A blogger from Pittsburgh, PA named DJHlights has a friend on the Fairfax County Democratic Committee who also received the call!  Details are posted here.

As is usual with growing scandals, we learned new and even more troubling details.  On this call, the pollster identified themselves as with "Pew Research" a well respected name.  I can not find a similar public attack poll that Pew has ever conducted.  That combined with my source saying their caller said they were from the "Virginia Democratic Party" now leads us to a numbing conclusion.  Since neither Pew of the DPVA would be involved in such a poll, we can only conclude that the pollster was intentionally misleading people as to the source of the poll.

With this mounting evidence, it is time to discover who was responsible for this action that seems to be a clear violation of Virginia's disclosure laws. 

As we said earlier, it is highly unlikely James Webb was involved because the questions were skewed against his candidacy.  The Webb campaign later confirmed on the record that they are not polling.

That leaves Harris Miller, who has the money and the motive to be polling.  That campaign has refused to return emails from me asking if they are polling.  It's certainly their right to do so, but this issue will not go away.  The people of Virginia were lied to and mislead in this poll, and we need three questions answered.

1)  Was Harris Miller responsible for commissioning this poll?

2)  If so, did the Miller campaign ask the polling company to mislead those called on who commissioned the poll?

3)  If the Miller campaign commissioned this poll, but did not ask the callers to misidentify themselves- who at the polling company told them to do so?

Any more silence from the Miller campaign can only be interpreted as pleading the 5th as far as I'm concerned.  This is a very serious issue.

How has America bet on the Final Four?

Column by Not Gretchen Bulova:

This neat map lays it all out for you.  Make your picks in the comments below.

GO PATRIOTS!

Make sure to watch the game Saturday at 6:07 on CBS.

FALSE POLL CIRCULATING IN SENATE RACE

I just received word of a negative poll going out testing the candidates for U.S. Senate.

I heard about this through an elderly resident of Fairfax County, nearing her 90th birthday.  This woman, a longtime Fairfax Democrat was savvy enough to keep asking, "Who is authorizing this poll?"

The pollster refused to respond each time.  Finally at the end they said the poll was from the "Virginia Democratic Party".

Why would the Virginia Democratic Party be doing a negative poll on the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate?

Obviously they wouldn't.  So who was doing a poll on Wednesday night?

As I said before, my source is a political veteran, and is someone who knows what normally comes out from campaigns.  Based on the questions asked, she believes it was the Harris Miller campaign doing the poll.

Questions need to be answered immediately.  Did Harris have a poll in the field on Wednesday?  If so, who instructed the operator to say the poll was from the Virginia Democratic Party?

It's also possible this poll did not come from Harris Miller, although my source was fairly confident that it did based on the questions. 

Who else could be responsible?

Could it be DPVA?  Doubtful they would even have the money for a live poll during a primary, even if they wanted to do it.  I can say with 99% certainty they are not responsible for this.

Could it be the James Webb campaign?  Highly unlikely because of the questions asked, but its always possible.  (5:30 p.m.- Also see update below).

Could it be a 3rd party interest group?  This is the next most likely to it being a Harris Miller poll, but I can not think of one that would be interested in polling right now.

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The first step to resolving this issue is both campaigns confirming whether they had a poll in the field on Wednesday night.  If the "Virginia Democratic Party" did not do this poll, then someone has broken the law by misrepresenting who they are with.  Both campaigns should be immediately forthcoming on whether this poll was from them.

In the comments someone asked if this was a "Push Poll".  A push poll goes to large numbers of people to "push" them to vote in certain ways.  This was not a push poll because it does not seem to have gone out to a huge audience and its not close enough to the election for a "Push Poll".

This seems to be a regular poll, that is testing which issues should be used in future mail pieces, tv ads or, maybe even a real push poll.

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5:30 p.m. Update- The Webb campaign says "We're not doing any polling at all at this time"

Hopefully the Miller campaign will also do us the courtesy of a quick reply.

Who has a future in VA (PART 2 of 3)

Column by Not Gretchen Bulova:

Here are some more names from the Hotline "rising stars" list with my commentary in ().

Del. Dick Black (R): Lost bid for re-election in '05, "a pretty bruising defeat." (I'd say this is an understatement.  On top of his loss, Staton loses in a landslide.  Where's my fork, I need to see if he's done....)

Del. Chris Jones (R): After voting for tax increases, he lost his appointment to the state health care commission in retaliation. "He's done." (He's not done as a delegate, but the '04 budget should kill any hope he has of running statewide.  He is still imensely popular in his district.)

Del. Chris Saxman (R): Still in the House. "One of the younger, more conservative members." "Others consider him an up-and-comer in the party." (Now we come to real potential.  A young conservative in the house, a friend of the blogosphere, his name could appear somewhere on the '09 statewide ballot.)

Del. Brian Moran (D): "Brian is awesome." He's the caucus leader. "He's definitely going to run statewide or for Congress." (Moran definitely has potential, whether he's "awesome" I can't really say.  He seems to run the caucus well, and the Dem fortunes in the House have turned around recently.  He's rumored for both Gov and AG in '09).

State Sen. Mark Herring (D): Just won special election in Loudon Co., a traditional GOP area. "He will move up somewhere." (I haven't heard many rumors with his name in them, but he's only been in the Senate for 2 months.  I think it's a bit early to predict his future.  The 10th CD would be tough to win, especially against Wolf.)

PS:  Where is Chad Dotson on this list?

Webb turns into Rush Limbaugh?

Go to http://www.dailykos.com and look on the right hand side.  James Webb has the worst internet ad I have ever seen.

It says "Why is this man smiling" with a picture of Rush Limbaugh.

Then Webb's picture pops up.

WTF?

UPDATE:  The ad just changed, does anyone have a copy of this I can show?

Great Stuff

Chris Saxman has an open mic night on Commonwealth Conservative. 

Vince Thoms takes a look at potential freedom fighters.

Perservando has some thoughts up on potential Lt. Governor nominees.

Gay Marriage Amendment on ballot this fall

Does anyone think it has any chance of failing?  What do you think the margin will be?

I say it passes 70-30.

Who has a future in Virginia?

Column by Not Gretchen Bulova:

The Hotline has come out with a list of "rising stars" in VA politics today.  I've cut and pasted a few and included my comments in ().

State Sen. Mark Obenshain (R): The brother of the current VA GOP chair, he's a possible AG candidate in '09. He's "very charismatic."  (ha, they must not be paying attention to all the upheavel in the party about his sister or the Republitarian Blog)

Sec/Finance Jody Wagner (D): "A very sharp and hard-working person." Lost to then-Rep. Ed Schrock (R) in heavily GOP VA 02 by just 7500 votes.  (She didn't win the VAprogressive poll but she's got a future statewide if she wants one. I think she could take NLS in a statewide primary.)

Fairfax Co. Board Chair Gerry Connolly (D): "He's established" and could make a strong bid for Rep. Davis' VA 11 seat. (He must have responded to this himself and Hotline clearly didn't read the article about feces.)

State Del. David Englin (D): Ran an insurgent race against a group of established Dems in Fairfax Co. and beat them all. (Never thought of him going anywhere for a while, but I guess he could.  He has to get re-elected first.)

State Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R): Wife of Rep. Tom Davis (R), she's "always talked about as a potential candidate for LG." "Count her on the short list." (The short-list to what.... Unemployment in '07?)

Weenie of the Week

Nominations this week?

New poll shows VA approves of Allen

Column by Not Gretchen Bulova:

A Survey USA poll shows 51% of Virginians approving of the job George Allen is doing in the Senate, 31% disapprove, and 18% are unsure.  Although certainly not great numbers, these numbers do signal that Allen will win re-election. 

In order to defeat Allen in November, Democrats will need to lower his approval ratings into the lower 40's and bring his disapproval ratings into the lower 40's.  There are 2 basic ways to accomplish this. 

The first, is Allen causing it himself.  Stupid comments (i.e. Senator Bunning in Kentucky in 04), stupid ads (i.e. Kilgore Death Penalty), and not campaigning.  None of these seem likely as Allen is a seasoned campaigner with a top notch presidential staff working for him.

The most likely scenario is for the Democrats to go on the attack, go on the attack early and stay on the attack.  Without negative ads directed at Allen's record, Democrats don't stand much of a chance.  Even in this negative Republican political climate, the Democrats must go on the offensive to win in November. 

P.S. Sorry I've been away so long!