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UVA08

What is the analysis of this poll? Why did Webb drop 8 points and Allen gain 6? Im just curious what happened in the last month to cause this.

Virginia Pundette

"It may be that the Democrats' throwing their hats into the ring generated initial excitement that was too thin to last. It could also be that the February drop in Allen's numbers was just statistical noise. Most likely, both factors played a role in the apparent tightening shown in the February results."

Alicia

Could it be because it only polls 500 voters? Or because Allen's been stumping for Pres. and getting more coverage? I doubt the poll happened after Allen said he was bored with the Senate!!

Virginia Centrist

Ouch! Allen looks invincible!

You'd at least hope that Webb or Miller (anonymous Dems at this point) could poll 40%. Webb could make up the extra 10% by being Reagan's Navy Sec and a hawk against the War.

Miller could lose 1% on being Harris Miller and a Lobbyist from NOVA.

Virginia Centrist

On final analysis, I can explain this poll in this way:

the media (local and national) has been mentioning George Allen as a presidential contender regularly lately.

This is the best thing Allen has going for him. Imagine you're a voter who is ambivalent about Allen. Then you hear the press constantly buzzing about how he's a star and a presidential candidate. That's gonna push up his numbers. No, not artificially, I'm not spinning. These numbers are probably legit.

Not Jack Herrity

Oddly enough, I don't think these numbers mean anything. The Democrats have not gelled around a candidate yet, so that can skew the numbers. When the primary is over, then the numbers might mean something. The combination of a primary contest and the early date mean this is still anyone's race.

NJH

I Do Not Trust Webb

If you don't mind me saying (and I know Alicia will...), all that 'the man, the myth, the legend...I love Webb' blog talk and only a 2-3 percent difference between Webb and Miller?!?

I think that the more Webb gets around, the more active Democrats wake up and start questioning Webb's past and motives.

Spin it away, kids!!

Virginia Centrist

Umm - IDNTW:

Both candidates are virtually unknown.

That "3%" is actually nothing. It's probably just noise. They're probably both tied with each other against Allen right now. No one has any idea who they are, despite Miller's 4,550 years in Democratic politics (followed by 15 years of complete silence from 1991-2006).

Virginia Centrist

NJH:

I think, at the very least, you'd see some sort of weakness.

Look at other state polls right now. Unknown challengers typically run 5-10 points behind vulnerable incumbents. And that's a good sign.

But 24 points is quite a bit.

Not Jack Herrity

IDNTW - Don't be stupid. The poll compares each Dem candidate to Allen. No one asked which Democratic candidate anyone was voting for in the primary. The poll that was done cannot be used to transmogrify the results into a question that was not asked. Furthermore, as I said above - once the Democrats congeal around a candidate, then the polling will start to matter. This far out, 3 points' worth of difference can be a mountain or a mole hill. And no one knows which it'll be until all the dirt gets dug up. The question that was asked does not necessarily give you a window into which candidate is stronger. There are ways to pose questions to go where you are trying to go, but that's not what this poll did.

NJH

I Do Not Trust Webb

VC,

I think you are taking a little liberty at the analysis.

Oh, the 15 years of complete silence? Harris was there for Mark Warner during his Senatorial campaign, and Harris was one of only 3 or 4 people in the Democratic Party that immediately drove off any intra-party resentment after Warner's loss. Harris was there for Mark Warner from the very early days of the Governor campaign, and all of us who were there know it.

Where were you from 1997 to 2001?

Oh, and I forgot one very important fact: Harris is one of the very few who stuck his neck out and actively encouraged and supported Mark Warner to be the Chair of the DPVA in the 1990's.

I understand you may not remember that, given your age and all...

I Do Not Trust Webb

NJH,

Kool-Aid drinker?

ZB

Rasmussen is a Republican polling company. Wake me up when a real polling firm releases something.

asmith

Rasmussen is Republican leaning, but he's fairly accurate. It's a name id poll, but it's obvious that Allen will be formidable.

Doug in Mount V ernon

NJH hit it on the head. Check back after the primary, and after a Democratic message aimed at the general voting population develops. If Webb is still down 24% then, I'll cut off my right arm. *OK, well maybe not THAT.

J.C. Wilmore

Exactly ZB.

Rasmussen also has Bush in the mid-forties.

Republican fantasy poll.

I seem to remember that Mason-Dixon was the closest to being accurate last year: are they polling this race?

Virginia Centrist

Ummm...guys - polls are polls. I seriously doubt Rasmussen is manipulating the poll in some sort of conspiracy...

Riley, Not O'Reilly

Duh. Where's the shock in these numbers?

UVA08

Rasmussen is usually about right though it does have a Republican slant. It also has Granholm tied with her competitor in Michigan despite Bush's low 30s approval in the state. It also has Rendell tied with Swan, has Swartznegger leading/tied, and shows Bush with a 45% approval rating. I think at best Webb is pulling 35-38% while Miller is pulling 30-33%. The key to this race will be MONEY! The thing is that our Democratic candidates are mis matched... Miller has the money but not the potential to beat Allen while Webb has the potential but not enough money. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

harrismillerfan

This poll makes one simple fact all the more obvious: If Miller hopes to be elected Governor in 2009, he needs a good statewide senate campaign to raise his name ID. The numbers just back up what I have been advocating for months (or at least days).

Webb Defeats Allen

I've bookmarked this to referr back to on June 13 and November 8.

;)

lenny

Good. I want Allen to get complacent, thinking he has this race in the bag. Remember, around this time last year Tim Kaine was down by double digits against Jerry Kilgore.

The real race starts around August.

This poll hardly leans right, only 39% favor an all out ban on abortion? These aren't Christian Conservatives being polled. That being said only you guys would think that a Seantor polling with a 61% favorable rating is vulnerable. I guess Warner would have been vulnerable had he been able to run for a second term.

Chris

Harris Miller Fan, is it your contention that Miller is running to get his name recognition up for a run for the Governor's mansion in 2009?

Robert

One word: Undecided. 35% of respondents were undecided. If after years of Allen, a voter can't decide whether they will return the guy to office...he has a problem. That problem is Webb's challenge, and opportunity.

Harris, this just makes you done. You have similar problems to Allen's and you got nothing in the trunk but a bag of lobbying, a checkbook, and some faded IOU's from the party elite. You need me to draw a picture?

I Do Not Trust Webb

Lenny,

You're right! This time last year, our friend Tim Kaine was down in the polls. In fact, Creigh wasn't doing as well as he would have liked.

I wonder what Webb was doing back then? Helping out any Democrats at the State or National level? Can't seem to find any proof that he was helping...

Funny you mention this time line, since we can't account for Webb during this time, JUST ONE YEAR AGO?

I wonder what Harris Miller was doing to help the cause?

http://www.vpap.org/donors/results_level2.cfm?key=INH000202644&Year=2005&CandFilter=X

lenny

I Do Not Trust Webb,

I know you are going to be at the Fairfax County Democratic Committee meeting tonight to hear Webb. I hope he puts to rest all your doubts about his candidacy. As for me, well, I just don't see Miller creating the political contrast that a Webb candidacy can bring.

What worries me most about Webb is funds. Yeah, funds, funds, funds. Allen's got too much cash sitting around.

Virginia Centrist

IDNTW:

Wow! That's not very much money!

I Do Not Trust Webb

Lenny,

Actually, I cannot attend the FCDC metting tonight. I'll be at Governor Kaine's Town Hall meeting.

VC,

That's more than what I gave, and it's way more that what Webb gave (which was zero).

This should sober you up:

http://www.vpap.org/donors/results_level1.cfm?txtSearch=miller%2C+Harris&SearchType=name

Remember, that's just since 1996. The true figure is three times that much. Harris has been a real good Democrat, during some good times and some very, very bad times.


There is no question that Harris has been a good "Institutional Democrat" - Serving as FCDC chair and giving money to Democrats (and a few Republicans along they way). However, on values he does not represent the Democratic party at all. Webb has clearly not been an Institutional Democrat, since he was formerly a Republican. The ironic thing is that, while not perfect, the former republican is a better "values" Democrat than Miller. And is unquestionably (no body, even Miller supporters dispute this) a stronger candidate.

Nietzsche

I hope to see Miller and Webb campaigning against Allen's recent remarks: "We won't be bored in the Senate! We like inaction! We want to be junior in seniority in the minority party to insure that we have even less clout than Allen and thus can do even less."

Chris

I cannot believe that Miller supporters are touting the fact that he stands shoulder to shoulder with George Allen and George Bush on the war as a route to the Governor's mansion! We should be focused on 2006 now, not 2009. On top of that, the war has no bearing on the Governor's race anyway.

Tell me, how does someone run against an Incumbent by saying that they are completely in agreement with the most unpopular policy of the incumbent?

NoVA Mike

1:02 anon.- Virginia actually is a pro-choice state, as hard as that is to believe since it's a Republican majority. And if you don't think Rasmussen skews to the right, then you've drank too much kool-aid.

I personally think it's far too early for this poll to matter much. Any Democrat will have a tough time against Allen, but enough money SHOULD and WILL make it a lot tighter than this poll would suggest. Wake me up after the primary...

Not Jack Herrity

IDNTW: So what? That and another $1000 donation will buy him a cup of coffee at a John Kerry fundraiser. If your biggest and best argument is you've earned the right to run 'cuz look what you've done for the party, then Harris Miller is toast. You have to have more than how much you've given to the party. Otherwise, the GOP's biggest candidates would be Sid Dewberry and Milt Petersen. A comparison of what Harris has done with what Jim Webb has done will mean very little in this race.

NJH

I Do Not Trust Webb

Values. Interesting take Anon 1:45pm.

The below quote was thrown out to NLS a few weeks ago. But when it comes to questioning Webb's past, a tone-deaf attitude seems to rule on the blogoshpere.

"Affirmative action, which originally sought to repair the state-induced damage to blacks from slavery and its aftermath, has within one generation brought about a permeating state-sponsored racism that is as odious as the Jim Crow laws it sought to countermand. A Soviet-style bureaucracy of political commissars now monitors every level of our society to ensure that racial and gender "diversity" matches pre-ordained models, using the awesome powers of government to make certain that white males are not "overrepresented" in education, employment or government contracts." --Webb wrote this in the WSJ, 5/22/2000.

Webb's values are not my values.

Not Larry Sabato

I haven't touched that Webb article, nor have I touched Harris's visa issue.

However, I have given Webb grief about women in the military and Miller grief on so far being a lousy candidate.

Freddie

I Do Not Trust Webb, 1:53pm:

That's a good quote. If that's what Democrats think, then there's hope for Democrats.

I Do Not Trust Webb

NLS,

However you may feel about Harris' candidacy, whether legitimate or not, and regardless of the debate over the H1B issue, affirmative action is one of the most representative things about our party.

If affirmative action did not take place when it did, our nation would still be in the past. Ironically, if Affirmative Action did not occur, so many of the Southern Democrats would have remained in our party.

In other words, the positive outcomes of affirmative action outweighed the downfall of southern Democrats. For Webb to condemn affirmative action is not only wrong, it strikes at the heart of why so many of us remained Democrats while others left for the Republican Party. While others left, people like us remained, rebuilt, and placed new foundations on what the DPVA has become today.

We sacrificed so much political strength in Virginia for affirmative action. My father received death threats for supporting this movement. It was the right thing to do then, and Webb's opinion is not only infuriating, it is a direct stab in the back for all of us who endured so much to make affirmative action possible.

Would Wilder have become Governor? Would Cathy Hudgins have even become a county Supervisor in Fairfax? Our party has so many success stories on the benefits of affirmative action. Your unwillingness to confront this issue on Webb’s personal beliefs will only hurt this party in the long run, even if Webb is actually elected to the Senate. Don’t you understand? This is not about who is the better ‘candidate’ – don’t fall into that trap. This is about ensuring that all of our accomplishments are not undone.

Webb’s statement on affirmative action should alarm all of us, even Republicans who have come to accept and even embrace the benefits of minorities in our schools, colleges, businesses, and government.

Kilo

Kilo smiles and takes notes. He wonders how anyone can question Allen's popularity when he polls above 50% in all polls without starting his campaign as of yet. Allen is not Kilgore guys, that does not compute. My humble advice to you Millerites and Webbers is just keep up what your doing. There is plenty of time for you to make your points. I, like the millions of others, will continue to watch Allen on the Sunday shows and at Nascar events. Gosh..His campaign is costing millions thus far:)

Dannyboy

Look at the polls. Either Allen has jumped up 10 points since the last Rasmussen polls, or their just not very accurate yet. I think the later.

If this polls proves anything, it's that Webb has slightly more appeal right now than Miller.

harrismillerfan

Chris,

You ask: Tell me, how does someone run against an Incumbent by saying that they are completely in agreement with the most unpopular policy of the incumbent?

If you think this race is all about Allen vs. Miller, then you are mistaken. Its simply an opportunity for Miller to establish himself for the '09 Governor's race. And his support for the war will certainly help him out there.

Jason

re: boredom

http://www.augustafreepress.com/stories/storyReader$39346

"For the record, Allen was not quoted in the Times piece as saying that he was bored with life in the Senate. The word came up in a summation of Allen's feelings toward the senior federal legislative chamber put to paper by the author of the piece."

For those who were misinformed and spreading it.

Virginia Centrist

Allen's not bored in the Senate - he screams and yells at his predominantly gay staffers all day causing his office to have the highest turnover in DC!

Doug in Mount V ernon

IDNTW:

I agree with you on the affirmative action issue. I also don't agree with Webb on Don't Ask Don't Tell. However, there's one thing that you need to reevaluate in your litmus test-lined evaluation. Who is the person? What do they stand for as their core principles? If they are elected, will they serve the people, and not some interest?

Please apply those questions to Webb and to Miller and get back to us.

I don't agree with Webb on some issues, but I agree on most of what he stands for, including his opposition to the Iraq War (Miller supports), his pro-choice stand (Miller wants restrictions), his support of civil unions (Miller is only now making waves that he'll "oppose" the amendment but never stated what he supports), etc.

It goes on. But more importantly, what is at the core of what motivates these two men?

To me, it comes down to that question, and the answers for Webb are far more appealing.

George Templeton

Wait just a minute. Two things don't add up for me. 1. How does a 3-point difference (Webb getting 30 and Miller getting 27) mean that Miller has no shot.
2. Doug Wilder would not have been governor without affirmative action. That's funny I thought he ran for Lt. Gov. and won and then ran for Gov. and won. To credit affirmative action for the rise of Wilder is is no less idiotic (and insulting) than Bill Clinton's notion that affirmative action was the main reason Colin Powell made it to the level of Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It is pollyannish bullcrap.

Virginia Centrist

Doug -

Yeah, I could name 10 things I disagree with Webb on. But IDNTW asks us to take one or two issues, apply a litmus test, and then go running into Harris Miller's waiting arms.

The fact is, both of these candidats fail on several "litmus test" issues. Every candidate does....

I Do Not Trust Webb

George Templeton and VC,

Wilder would never have made it to the Governor's mansion without affirmative action. If you want to spin, fine: Wilder would never have been Mayor of Richmond without affirmative action, let alone state-wide office.

George, you sure don'tn know your history--and your reply gives yourself no maturity or credibility.

If you two are naive enough to pass on one of the most important Democratic principles, then fine: Go join the Republican Party.

This is not about a litmus test. Read the Webb passage again. This argument is about a man who has not connection with a principle that has defined our party--and for the good!!


Get your heads out of the sand!

Get Your Own Head Out of the Sand

IDNTW - The King of Talking Crap to Everyone

You get mentioned in the Post and now think you can boss people and throw insults?

Great window into a Miller supporter (who always has to have the last illogical word)

Virginia Centrist

IDNTW:

Miller supported the Iraq war! If you want a litmus test for a candidate, then that's the best one I can think of...

George Templeton

Well as I have said before I am a Republican and I must be real naive because I thought Wilder's ideas and charisma are what propelled him to the heights he achieved and not affirmative action. The last time I checked affirmative action didn't help you win elections. Then again I didn't live here when Wilder became gov. so maybe I am wrong. As for my other question I still don't understand how Webb's 30 to Miller's 27 makes that big of a difference. It's March for crying out loud not August.

Alicia

I agree Virginia Centrist.

Iraq - and the ability to speak out - is a huge huge litmus test for me and many others.

If Miller supported such a noble cause - why isn't his son or daughter going to Iraq?

Josh Chernila

Trust James Webb continues to spout bollox.

Make an argument, any argument that Harris Miller can win in Virginia.

It's been months and I'm still waiting. He's got every paid operative from the Kaine campaign working overtime and still, I've heard not a single argument.

How does Harris Miller win in Virginia? He doesn't:

Remember: MiUiV

Does this poll mean that Webb's win in the straw poll may not have
"marked the beginning of a populist progressive, 'Jacksonian Democratic' revolution in America, what may be seen in a few years from now as Virginia's 'shot heard 'round the world."

Just wondering?

Webb Defeats Allen

This poll means that there's a lot of ground to make up for the Democrats. Virginia didn't turn blue in a day, in this case it may take a few months. ;)

J.C. Wilmore

What, no headline trumpeting the fact that Webb is closer to Allen than Kaine was to Kilgore this time last year?

Oh, and Miller's five points behind Webb too.

Zogby. Baby.

Jameel

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James

Remember we didn't beat Jerry Kilgore in a day. This far out I don't think it means much unless Webb or Miller say something incredibly stupid.

Right now we don't have the national press spot light that Allen has. Webb can seal the deal, we just need to give him money and support. We will nibble away at Allen's numbers just as we nibbled away at Kilgore.

This isn't a long shot, it's just a tough shot, if we step up Webb has a good fighting chance. Right now the jury is divided on the Democrats because people don't know what they are going to get, the don't want Harris Miller, they want a change.

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