I just received word of a negative poll going out testing the candidates for U.S. Senate.
I heard about this through an elderly resident of Fairfax County, nearing her 90th birthday. This woman, a longtime Fairfax Democrat was savvy enough to keep asking, "Who is authorizing this poll?"
The pollster refused to respond each time. Finally at the end they said the poll was from the "Virginia Democratic Party".
Why would the Virginia Democratic Party be doing a negative poll on the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate?
Obviously they wouldn't. So who was doing a poll on Wednesday night?
As I said before, my source is a political veteran, and is someone who knows what normally comes out from campaigns. Based on the questions asked, she believes it was the Harris Miller campaign doing the poll.
Questions need to be answered immediately. Did Harris have a poll in the field on Wednesday? If so, who instructed the operator to say the poll was from the Virginia Democratic Party?
It's also possible this poll did not come from Harris Miller, although my source was fairly confident that it did based on the questions.
Who else could be responsible?
Could it be DPVA? Doubtful they would even have the money for a live poll during a primary, even if they wanted to do it. I can say with 99% certainty they are not responsible for this.
Could it be the James Webb campaign? Highly unlikely because of the questions asked, but its always possible. (5:30 p.m.- Also see update below).
Could it be a 3rd party interest group? This is the next most likely to it being a Harris Miller poll, but I can not think of one that would be interested in polling right now.
-----
The first step to resolving this issue is both campaigns confirming whether they had a poll in the field on Wednesday night. If the "Virginia Democratic Party" did not do this poll, then someone has broken the law by misrepresenting who they are with. Both campaigns should be immediately forthcoming on whether this poll was from them.
In the comments someone asked if this was a "Push Poll". A push poll goes to large numbers of people to "push" them to vote in certain ways. This was not a push poll because it does not seem to have gone out to a huge audience and its not close enough to the election for a "Push Poll".
This seems to be a regular poll, that is testing which issues should be used in future mail pieces, tv ads or, maybe even a real push poll.
----
5:30 p.m. Update- The Webb campaign says "We're not doing any polling at all at this time"
Hopefully the Miller campaign will also do us the courtesy of a quick reply.
Oh Jesus, not the red flashing light!!!
Posted by: Virginia Centrist | March 31, 2006 at 02:42 PM
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=3a629886-f717-4133-9584-e0f748b86af3&x=1449,4
What about this one that gives Allen a 57% approval and 26% diapproval? Is that the false one?
Posted by: Jason | March 31, 2006 at 02:46 PM
Jason, that poll is 51% approval, 31% disaproval, the numbers you are looking at is Central VA only.
no, it is not that poll.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | March 31, 2006 at 02:47 PM
That "flashing" red light is so lame it's actually cool.
Posted by: | March 31, 2006 at 02:48 PM
I assume you're referring to the Zogby poll?
Posted by: Virginia Centrist | March 31, 2006 at 02:52 PM
Is this the poll with a majority intending to write in Ben Tribbitt?
Posted by: Freddie | March 31, 2006 at 02:54 PM
You're just keeping us in suspense so that we'll keep reloading NLS and it will up your page views, right?
Posted by: | March 31, 2006 at 03:09 PM
You can't leave us hanging like this, brotha!
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 03:10 PM
Let's see...it's got something to do with Harris Miller and a red flashing light.
Am I right so far, Ben?
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 03:11 PM
Well look at that. Quite right, Ben, my bad. (Called on my spin!)
Posted by: Jason | March 31, 2006 at 03:15 PM
I think Dannyboy is on to something.
Hell, he won't even tell me what it is about!
Posted by: not gretchen bulova | March 31, 2006 at 03:15 PM
Ben, are you saying the Zogby results are false or are there others running around?
Posted by: Jason | March 31, 2006 at 03:17 PM
I don't believe the Zogby ones, I think they are 1-3 points off, but no real basis for that, other than not trusting John Zogby.
I think NLS is talking about other numbers.
Posted by: not gretchen bulova | March 31, 2006 at 03:19 PM
It would be a real shame to find out that Harris Miller was sponsoring something shady, like a push poll.
It's not a push poll, is it Ben?
Posted by: J.C. Wilmore | March 31, 2006 at 03:23 PM
Here's a riddle:
How do you keep a bunch of overpoliticked keyboardjunkies in suspense?
rolf
it's killing me!
Posted by: Webb Defeats Allen | March 31, 2006 at 03:23 PM
Zogby's numbers are always iffy.
Posted by: Jason | March 31, 2006 at 03:23 PM
I DO think that the Zogby numbers are too good to be true, but I think that Rasmussen poll earlier with Allen up 24 was way off as well. I'd think that Webb is about 10 or 11 points behind Allen (similar to where Kaine was at this point), and that Miller is maybe 15 or 16 behind.
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 03:26 PM
I'm thinking it is Zogby according to this Hotline story:
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/03/beware_of_onlin.html
Posted by: Riley, Not O'Reilly | March 31, 2006 at 03:27 PM
Zogby has mixed results. But so does every other polling firm. right now they're all over the place on Senate races. Some seem to be too far towards teh dems, and some are too far towards the Repubs. Either way, Democrats have a long hill to climb.
On this:
It has nothing to do with Zogby, I'll tell you that.
Posted by: Virginia Centrist | March 31, 2006 at 03:27 PM
Come on - tell us what this is about. We're not here to run up your numbers but to get and use the information you put out. Let's go - put out the info.
Posted by: Bubba | March 31, 2006 at 03:28 PM
If it had to do with Zogby, Harris Miller's picture wouldn't be up there. The Zogby poll hardly mentions Miller. If it were the Zogby poll, it would be Jim Webb's picture or Allen's picture. This is either bad news or good news for Miller. The Zogby poll being wrong wouldn't do anything to help or hurt him.
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 03:30 PM
I think Miller has sponsored a poll.
The only question is: is it a push poll?
For a Democrat to be caught using a push poll against another Democrat, well that would be a political career-ending move, I think.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll
Posted by: J.C. Wilmore | March 31, 2006 at 03:32 PM
90% percent of Miller supporters still want to use their powder rooms in Fairfax County.
Posted by: Not Gerry Connolly | March 31, 2006 at 03:37 PM
I don't think this is about a poll at all.
It's Ben's crafty way of subliminally suggesting to us that Harris Miller frequents red light districts.
;-)
Posted by: | March 31, 2006 at 03:38 PM
I'm posting this comment just in case Ben's waiting for 25 commetns to build up before posting the story.
:P
Posted by: Webb Defeats Allen | March 31, 2006 at 03:46 PM
lol
Posted by: not gretchen bulova | March 31, 2006 at 03:47 PM
27
Posted by: not gretchen bulova | March 31, 2006 at 03:48 PM
Whomever it is they shouldn't be asking if "Affirmative Action is state sponsored racism" in any poll if you ask me.
Posted by: djhlights | March 31, 2006 at 03:48 PM
Come on Ben, just tell us, dude. What is it?
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 03:55 PM
And the authorizer is?
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 03:58 PM
Holy s**t, he's going to tell us that Miller sponsored a push poll against Webb . . . of course he'll make us wait thirty minutes . . . damn you Ben! You crazy genius bastard of blogging!!!
Posted by: J.C. Wilmore | March 31, 2006 at 04:01 PM
The Virginia Democratic Party? Bullsh*t! Somebody within the Democratic party, more likely.
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 04:03 PM
Oh...good. More to the story. You scared me there for a second, Ben. :)
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 04:06 PM
Virginia Democratic Party?
That makes no sense.
Posted by: Webb Defeats Allen | March 31, 2006 at 04:07 PM
There's more to the story, dude. Ben likes keeping us in suspense...
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 04:08 PM
this sounds a lot like the robo calls at the end of 05, where it was tim's voice spliced together but was paid for by the republican leadership PAC or something along those lines. As far as I know, state parties stay out of primaries.
Posted by: slaythewicked | March 31, 2006 at 04:12 PM
Okay, so what was the negative part?
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 04:26 PM
More likely Webb authorized this poll so that people would think Miller was doing push polling against another Democrat, thus ruining Miller's career. Just the kind of thing a crafty Reaganite would think up.
Posted by: | March 31, 2006 at 04:28 PM
It involves a 90 year old woman.
Posted by: Virginia Centrist | March 31, 2006 at 04:28 PM
Ben, since you're saying it was a negative poll. what were the specific questions asked?
If you can substantiate this, it's a big story, and you will be crowned the uber-poobah of the Virginia blogosphere. This is your Bob Woodward moment, don't let us down. Offer us some proof.
Posted by: Very Interested Observer | March 31, 2006 at 04:31 PM
Okay, Anonymous "More likely Webb authorized this poll" Republican troll, in case you didn't know this, push polls are pretty much the most expensive kinds of techniques going, so who do you really think is most likely behind this? The guys with the money. And that ain't Webb. I know he'll get some, but with a fledgling campaign and no debts owed to him by big business, he doesn't have it yet.
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 04:32 PM
As far as I know, there is no such entity as the "Virginia Democratic Party." There is a "Democratic Party of Virginia" but I have never heard it call itself the "Virginia Democratic Party."
Posted by: ZB | March 31, 2006 at 04:34 PM
what exactly makes this a "false" poll? dont campaigns always test their own negatives, as well as their opponents' negatives? i fail to see how this is in any way unique in virginia politics
Posted by: Steve Gong | March 31, 2006 at 04:39 PM
i agree with steve...you guys dont know whats going on!
Posted by: chris miles | March 31, 2006 at 04:40 PM
It's false because the authorization line is not who it is coming from.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | March 31, 2006 at 04:41 PM
It involves a 90 year old woman.
They called at least one other member of FCDC according to my source.
Posted by: djhlights | March 31, 2006 at 04:42 PM
Chris Miles and Steve Gong, your IP address is the same, don't try that with me.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | March 31, 2006 at 04:43 PM
Could you give us some examples of the questions, Ben? It'll help us figure it out. Thanks, dude.
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 04:43 PM
re: Chris Miles and Steve Gong
It's funny how the Miller spin people think we're all a bunch of 'crazy blog people' who aren't sophisticated enough to check IP addresses.
Posted by: Very Interested Observer | March 31, 2006 at 04:46 PM
ZB, exactly.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | March 31, 2006 at 04:46 PM
Unless it's for the DPVA, somebody was lying. That's a serious no-no. Somebody needs to start asking some questions.
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 04:54 PM
Voters quite often confuse polls that test negatives for push polls - despite that fact that usually these polls contain horrible negatives for both candidates!
Posted by: Virginia Centrist | March 31, 2006 at 04:54 PM
From Wikipedia's "push poll" article:
"The main advantage of push polls is that they are an effective way of maligning an opponent ("pushing" voters away) while avoiding responsibility for the distorted or false information used in the push poll. They are risky for the same reason: if credible evidence emerges that the polls were ordered by a campaign, it would do serious damage to that campaign. Push polls are also relatively expensive, having a far higher cost per voter than radio or television commercials. Thus push polls are most effective in elections with fewer voters, such as party primaries, or in close elections where a relatively small change in votes can mean victory or loss."
Posted by: J.C. Wilmore | March 31, 2006 at 04:56 PM
Ben, can you post some specific questions?
Posted by: lenny | March 31, 2006 at 04:58 PM
I'm with Lenny. I'm not accusing anyone of anything until I know what questions were asked. I want to see how "negative" this really is.
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 05:04 PM
This is not that big of a scoop Ben. You said yourself it doesn't sound like a push poll. And you have one person saying that it was from DPV (a 90 yr. old lady i may add). If you have numerous reports coming in that they are saying the poll is from DPV, then there is a story, but one person is not a story. If you know anything about polls, whoever is hired to do the poll hires a call center and by law, has to brief them on the legalities of what they can/can't say - so chances are this was just a mistake by an inexperienced phone banker. And as much as we would like to, asking campaigns to confirm or deny their poll is practically asking them to release their campaign plan.
Posted by: carl | March 31, 2006 at 05:04 PM
Ben, enough with the Matt Drudge schtick already!
Give us the goddamn questions!!!!!
Posted by: Very Interested Observer | March 31, 2006 at 05:05 PM
calm down, observer. It's all good.
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 05:11 PM
Be patient, I have a reason to not have the questions up right now.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | March 31, 2006 at 05:12 PM
Make sure it's all good when you post the questions, Ben. But just know that we're all dying to see them :).
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 05:16 PM
While we're all waiting for the show to continue... a commercial interlude. Have you all made your last minute contributions to your candidate of choice? Don't forget the FEC deadline for the 1st quarter filing is midnight tonight :)
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 05:17 PM
My bias of being a Miller supporter aside, who else might be doing a negative poll on both Democratic candidates?
Who might also be unsavvy enough to get the name of the DPVA wrong?
Never underestimate the ability for Republicans to make a mess and get caught.
Posted by: Adam Sharp | March 31, 2006 at 05:27 PM
Good point, Adam. Whoever ran the poll was inexperienced. There is no VDP. There's a DPVA. Whoever was conducting this poll with Ben's sources, was inexperienced, no matter who it was from.
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 05:32 PM
So you know that the poll was negative on both sides? Have you heard something too?
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 05:32 PM
I think Ben needs to call this woman and make sure the "pollster" said "Virginia Democratic Party" and not "Democratic Party of Virginia." It definitely makes a difference.
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 05:35 PM
VDP is how she reported it. I put she was 90, just so everyone can judge that information with that caveat. This is a sharp woman though, or I wouldn't report it.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | March 31, 2006 at 05:37 PM
Why don't we wait to read the questions before we say who it was negative towards? Could've been negative towards Webb or towards both Candidates. Let's wait and see.
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 05:39 PM
Well, Ben was pretty sure when he said it wasn't the Webb team, and it looks like he was right.
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 05:54 PM
Re: 5:30 pm update... I could have told you that. The campaign just got their phone system installed this week. They don't have enough time for polls yet. They've been scrambling like mad meeting people, getting endorsements, rallying volunteers for the signature drive. They're doing a hell of a job pulling things together, but still... the website phone listed was one of the staff's cell phone numbers up until a few days ago. They aren't running any polls. No way.
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 05:58 PM
The pollster could very easily not know the difference between "Virginia Democratic Party" and "Democratic Party of Virginia."
Posted by: Freddie | March 31, 2006 at 05:58 PM
I agree Freddie. I've heard lots of people, Republicans and Democrats, say "Virginia Democratic Party." Still, if the pollster wouldn't answer who was making the call, then there's something not quite right about it.
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 06:04 PM
I don't think it's the DPVA. They wouldn't have that kind of money. Even if they did, they wouldn't be wasting it on a poll like this months before a primary. I think we can count the DPVA out.
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 06:07 PM
If it's Miller camp, that is a serious sign to me that they have zero intentions of ever going positive.
Posted by: Alicia | March 31, 2006 at 06:20 PM
Forget that. Negative or positive isn't the issue. If it is anybody other than the DPVA, it's a crime.
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 06:23 PM
So, Ben, did you call someone at the DPVA and make 100% certain that they aren't responsible for this? Seems almost 100% certain that it wasn't them, but it would narrow down the list of suspects even more if we had it straight from them that they weren't behind this.
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 06:28 PM
I did overlook that part of it. (long week)
Posted by: Alicia | March 31, 2006 at 06:29 PM
Wow, it's been several hours since Ben broke this story. How long does it take for someone to say: "We didn't have a poll that day either . . ."?
This starting to look questionable.
Posted by: J.C. Wilmore | March 31, 2006 at 07:48 PM
Agreed J.C.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | March 31, 2006 at 07:50 PM
I've got more up on this now over at my place.
Posted by: djhlights | March 31, 2006 at 08:04 PM
Harris Miller is innocent! He's being framed by the Republicans and their spook in the Democratic Senate primary. Even if Miller's camp owns to this abomination it will only prove how deep the Republican conspiracy goes!
Posted by: | March 31, 2006 at 08:05 PM
Hey J.C., have you maxed out your credit cards for Webb yet? :) Only 4 hours to go...
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 08:05 PM
Ben, is anon 4:28 the same Republican troll as anon 8:05 or a different one?
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 08:12 PM
Left Behind, good call! It is.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | March 31, 2006 at 08:16 PM
That's between me and VISA.
Posted by: J.C. Wilmore | March 31, 2006 at 08:16 PM
I'm not suspicious yet. Miller's team usually takes a long time to respond. We'll just have to see. Apparently, this isn't just one person. It actually seemed pretty tough on Miller. Thanks for that post djhlights, it was informative. Peace out!
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 08:19 PM
Okay, I'll bit, where do I find djlights place?
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 08:36 PM
click my name or cut and paste this
http://djhlights.blogspot.com/
Posted by: djhlights | March 31, 2006 at 08:38 PM
That's VERY interesting djhlights. So is your source the same person as Ben's source?
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 08:42 PM
No
Posted by: djhlights | March 31, 2006 at 08:44 PM
No way we have the same source, mine was less detailed.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | March 31, 2006 at 08:45 PM
My source knows about your source though.
Posted by: djhlights | March 31, 2006 at 08:47 PM
Wow. So we have multiple reports of this. This is definitely an interesting development.
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 08:50 PM
One more question... who did your respective sources think was behind this "poll?"
Posted by: LeftBehindChild | March 31, 2006 at 09:00 PM
Still no response from the Miller Campaign? Hmmm. Maybe they're just searching around the organization...
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 09:27 PM
Good Lord, what a bunch of breathless hooey from the same old crowd of Webbsters. There is never an end to the suggested intrigue continually linked to Harris Miller by biased amateurs.
The poll was run by NLS under secret contract with Allen and arranged by Duke Cunningham before his recent jailing. MZM President Mitch Wade was the voice. VC and Danny were unwitting participants who thought it would undo Miller. Webb was speaking in Hollywood at the time to give him plausible deniability. Wilmore arranged the phone bank thinking it was a WesPac related. Connally picked up the tab. Don Beyer drove the getaway. The 90-year-old was paid in advance with a script.
Zogby's poll was online and also conducted Tues/Wed.
Ben, please look up or research the meaning of a push poll. But be careful which reference you use, as Miller altered the text when he was a "lobbyist" and must now rely upon paid staff instead of volunteers to maintain the illusion.
And if you think THIS is suspicious, wait to you hear the breaking news on the St. Patrick's Day straw poll!!! The rumor, unsupported but highly interesting, is that the Webb voters were from out of state and were offered a free dinner if they showed up. Whoa! That is SO much cooler than Miller's paid staff hanging out. I have heard from an 80-year-old in Dunn Loring that people sounding like Webbsters were passing out free tickets in the neighborhood. I can't vouch for him, but I think it's a rumor worth pursuing.
Now, madam, turning to the Virginia Senate race -- you may have heard that Jim Webb, a highly decorated Viet Nam veteran and former Secretary of the Navy, is running in the Democratic primary against someone named Harris Miller who is a wealthy former lobbyist that most people haven't even heard of. Have you? I didn't think so. Now, if the primary was held today, whom would YOU vote for -- the distinguished former Secretary of the Navy and Viet Nam Veteram, Jim Webb, or the rich lobbyist Harris Miller?
That, Benster, is a push poll.
Posted by: Veteran Dem | March 31, 2006 at 09:38 PM
wow, DJ that's some nasty stuff.
Posted by: Webb Defeats Allen | March 31, 2006 at 09:41 PM
Veteran Dem, That was the dumbest comment I have ever recieved on this site. IDIOTIC.
Reread my post. I argued against the people in the comments. I said IT WAS NOT A PUSH POLL.
So now after I say IT WAS NOT A PUSH POLL you are going to attack me for making it out to be a push poll?
My issue with this is the person on the phone did not correctly identify themselves, not that it was a push poll.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | March 31, 2006 at 09:42 PM
Well, I think you just got your answer Ben. Miller will stonewall and refuse to answer the question.
Posted by: J.C. Wilmore | March 31, 2006 at 09:42 PM
Hey nice catch on that story, but I think you may be jumping to conclusions with little more than hunches. "Today it is MILLER is doing this back handed stuff.." Yesterday it was "Allen has 51% support and therefore he WILL win in November."
Huge Headlines do bring people to your site, but if they don't pan out it doesn't reflect well.
Posted by: Thegools | March 31, 2006 at 09:59 PM
Yeah, I'll have to admit that the Miller Team's refusal to answer has gotten me a teensy bit angry. If they haven't done anything wrong, shouldn't it be pretty easy to answer. How long ago did you ask, Ben? Five hours or so? Damn, how hard should this be? Or maybe their just going to pretend it never happened?
Posted by: Dannyboy | March 31, 2006 at 10:01 PM