Straw Poll Fallout

Yesterday's straw poll victory for James Webb was as big of an upset as I can remember in recent Virginia political history.  Harris Miller's campaign must be in shock.

Most bloggers from Northern Virginia that know the crowd attending agree. 

Bloggers like Waldo Jaquith, who don't know the area disagree.  Waldo said:

"It’s a straw poll. It’s a teeny-tiny sample. It’s for fun. It provides no concept of leaners, commitment level, or the inherent biases of supporters of Webb and Miller who no doubt each tried to pack the place."

Waldo goes on to say:

"The best parallel that I can muster, which may help fellow Fifth District Democrats, would be if Bern Ewert were to lose a straw poll to Al Weed in Bedford or Franklin County. Central to Bern’s campaign is that he’s well-known and well-liked in the Roanoke area; such a result would serve as a terrible blow to the legitimacy of his campaign."

That analogy isn't even close.  The people attending last nights event are the most loyal (and liberal) Democrats in Harris Miller's home county, where he served for SIX years as party Chairman.  It's not just a regional issue, the problem for Harris is you could not find a crowd that would give him a bigger advantage outside of his home.

To compare it to the 5th district, it would be the equivalent of farmers in Nelson County having a straw poll and voting for Ewert, or city managers in the Roanoke area having a straw poll and voting for Weed.  But even that understates what happened last night.

Some supporters of Miller including Mr. Arrogance himself, Gerry Connolly, are blaming Miller's defeat on "new people".  Numerous sources tell me that Gerry "complained" all night about the 100 or so people he didn't know who attended.  Rumors also are circulating that Gerry is quietly supporting Harris Miller and had told people close to him to vote for Harris.

First of all, both campaigns pushed people to attend.  If it is true that 100 new people showed up that Gerry didn't know, and all were for Webb, what does that say about who has the support?

Secondly, Harris Miller's biggest problem in this primary is showing people that his work career qualifies him for a seat in the United States Senate for six years, over an incumbent rumored to be headed towards the Presidency.  This problem is biggest in primary vote rich Northern Virginia, where most military, civilian federal workers, defense contractors, congressional aides and others are going to feel they are more qualified for the office than Harris is. 

Harris Miller's only retort to that is his long time party affiliation and support from local elected officials.  The type of people who attend Gerry Connolly's event are the same people who attend every Democratic event in Fairfax, and know all their elected officials.  If Kris Amundson, Vivian Watts, Janet Howell, Dick Saslaw, Penny Gross, Jim Scott, or even Gerry Connolly at his own party can't swing these people, who else does the Miller campaign expect to listen to them?

Third, and most important for Harris Miller is his goal of defeating George Allen.  While some Democrats believe that having a primary where you spend tons of money talking to base voters will help the nominee, I disagree.  In this particular race, the incumbent has name recognition at almost 100%, and is very defined to most voters on how they feel about him.

What that means is the millions of dollars George Allen has raised will not go towards a positive campaign if he feels the race tighten up.  If polling indicates trouble, he will spend a lot of money attempting to define his opponent to the electorate before they can.  That means any Democratic hopes of unseating Allen revolve around money. 

James Webb vs. George Allen still currently "Leans Republican".  But does Harris Miller want the legacy of forcing Webb to spend all of his money going into a battle with Allen?

Until yesterday, I would have defended Harris Miller and said he should run and take his chances in the primary because he had a chance to win.  But yesterday, with Miller's strongest constituency, he lost to someone most people in the room had yet to meet.  That means it is time to step aside, and allow Virginians to begin weighing Webb vs. Allen.  That's going to be a historic battle that either sends George Allen towards the White House, or changes control of the Congress to the Democrats.

Comments

[Dannyboy]

Interesting analysis, dude. If you hear about anymore endorsements, you let me know, brotha.

[charles barkley]

are there any historical examples of this stuff mattering?

[Dannyboy]

It's more of a momentum thing, Sir Charles. Webb got the Byrne Endorsement, then the Chap Endorsement, and now he won the straw poll. This week has been big for Webb, and he's stolen a lot of momentum form Miller. Miller needs something big to put in the news, or it'll be VERY difficult for him to catch up.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Charles, each event is a little different. In this case, the story is not the straw poll, but who it was voting.

[Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr.]

NLS. It's too early.

* A straw poll is way too prone to error.
----- If the speeches had come before the voting, people might have voted different?
----- How many people attended and didn't vote because they are undecided?
----- If Miller had found 60 drunks at Ireland's Four Courts to come along he would have won by 10% and you'd be spinning this totally differently.
----- If anything, that straw polls is a measure of fervency of supporters, but not representative of actual support.

* The primary is not for another 75 days!

* No one is focused on it except political geeks and party insiders.

* These things take time to play out.

* You can only spend so much money on the small number of people who are going to vote. What did Leslie spend to win her primary race? $300K? $300K is chump change to Webb.

* IT'S TOO EARLY.

Before Miller gets any pressure to step out, Jim Webb needs to define himself to the Party. He's an unknown quantity. No one has a clue what his position is on real issues, whether he can put a sentence together, or juice up a crowd.

Is Gerry Connolly's party the first Democratic Party event he's ever shown his face at? He needs to get out and around and win over some folks and PROVE himself before the any consensus has allegedly coalesced around his candidacy and people can legitimately tell Miller it's time to go back to lobbying.

[Dannyboy]

You have to admit, Not Harry, that the momentum IS on Webb's side, especially after this. I wouldn't be surprised if Webb got a few more endorsements after this from people who now feel confident that he's going to win.

[charles barkley]

how do you quantify this "momentum" oh dannyboy? this low turnout race is going to be won by iding and turning out voters, not the endorsements and straw polls that trip wacktivists' triggers

[Shaun Kenney]

Way too early for this kind of stuff, fellas. Reeks of the NOVA stereotype that they know more than the folks in unsuburbanized Virginia.

Straw polls are signs of organization strength and little else. The only situations where they have a real impact is in a field of multiple candidates (presidential straw polls for instance).

[James Young]

This has no more meaning to Harris Miller's candidacy than PWC's straw poll in 2004 had for Chairman Sean's local results for teh GOP nomination. I would expect Miller to handle it more maturely than Chairman Sean did (lying about ballot-stuffing).

[Dannyboy]

I'm not from NoVA. I'm from Virginia Beach. I'm not saying that this primary is over, I'm just that Webb has the momentum, and that can decide a primary. Charles, when you say that endorsements don't have an effect on primaries, you show a lack of understanding. Leslie Byrne is damn near legend in Virginia for turning out voters in primaries. That endorsement for Webb means quite a bit, as Leslie has a LOT of fans (ask Ben). While NoVAns sometimes DO have the problem of thinking they decide the fate of the party, it means quite a bit in this primary. Webb already has a lot of strength in SWVA and Hampton Roads. Miller's real shot at winning this primary is to create a NoVAn juggernaut that can override the effect of the other areas. This straw-poll just proves it's not going to be as easy as Miller had hoped. Miller's real strength is in NoVA, not in Hampton Roads, Richmond, or SWVA. I think Webb and Miller will probably halves it in Richmond, and Webb will run away with SWVA and HR. Miller, to win, will have to do VERY well in NoVA.

[Not Larry Sabato]

James, while the straw poll in 2005 you reference was not the final percentages, it showed a weakness in the primary electorate in Prince William for Sean. He ended up winning his home county by a much smaller percentage then his opponent did in his home county, so the straw poll was accurate in predicting that.

Same thing for Connolly's straw poll that showed Leslie thrashing Chap in Fairfax last year. Many people saw the money and assumed Chap would win that primary, until the straw poll.

[charles barkley]

danny, you say leslie byrne is legendary for turning out primary voters. does that mean leslie endorsements turn primary voters out? they are two distinct and very different things.

Why do Republicans keep coming on here and spinning things against Webb? I wonder why they'd do that......

"He's an unknown quantity. No one has a clue what his position is on real issues, whether he can put a sentence together, or juice up a crowd."

The crowd was certainly juiced up last night!!!! They were going nuts.

[Dannyboy]

Charles:
Leslie and Chap both have groups of very strong supporters who would like to see them go further in politics. If Leslie and Chap help get Webb the nomination, they get a nice credibility boost. Leslie knows it, Chap knows it, and the supporters know it. Leslie and Chap will ask their supporters to come out, and chances are they will. That's why endorsements are imporantant: It's an attempt to add one politician's supporters to another's.

[Win With Webb]

Saying Webb is "an unknown quantity. No one has a clue what his position is on real issues, whether he can put a sentence together, or juice up a crowd." Is ridiculous. Unlike Harris Miller, Jim Webb has begun to roll out his positions. Where are Miller's? Miller has been going a lock longer than Webb. The fact is Miller does not want to talk about his positions because it will become clear that, not only is he a weaker candidate than Webb, but he is a weaker Democrat than Webb.
Webb is a Progressive and Miller is not. It is that simple. A vote for Miller is a Vote for Allen - in 2006 and 2008.

[not staige blackford]

whose endorsement was key in the 05 lg primaries?

[anon factor]

"Webb already has a lot of strength in SWVA and Hampton Roads."

Measured how, dannyboy? Because he is a vet and former GOPer?

This is the kind of logic that caused us to nominate JFK in 2004.

No way Bush can paint a vet weak on national security, right?

The fact is, Webb is an unknown, yet compelling, quantity.

As for SW VA, if you knew anything about statewide politics beyond what you read on blogs, you would know that region does not turn out in statewide primaries. Candidates don't travel there or buy media because they don't vote.

And frankly, I wouldn't count on big numbers out of the Beach either. When is the last time that region turned out in a D primary?

[Dannyboy]

I'm not saying those will decide the election, anon factor, but what little they do turn out will go to Webb. In a low turnout primary, every vote counts. Webb will be much stronger in those areas, which will require that Miller do much better in NoVA. Webb's endorsements and victories as of recent have made that much harder for him. I have to agree with Ben on this one and say that the primary is in the "Leans Webb" area.

[Dannyboy]

As for the "Hampton Roads and it's sorrounding area effect", here's the turnout in the 2005 Primary.

Chesapeake: 2420 votes
Suffolk: 778 votes
Portsmouth: 4279 votes
Newport News: 1585 votes
Hampton: 4936 votes
Virginia Beach: 3005 votes
Norfolk: 4071 votes

All together, that's 21,074 votes, about 20% of the votes cast in the primary. While Hampton roads can't decide a primary, this area can be crucial. Webb will win this area by a large percentage, and Miller will have to counter strongly in other areas to win. Remember, only Alexandria, Arlington, Richmond, Fairfax, and Henrico voted higher than Norfolk, Portsmouth, Hampton.

Of course, Fairfax almost had more votes than Hampton Roads in total. This finally gets me to my point. This straw poll tells us that Miller may not be able to counter Webb's effect on Hampton Roads with Fairfax alone. Remember, 87% (16,584) of the votes in Fairfax County went to either Byrne or Petersen, both who have endorsed Webb and will continue to work strongly for him.

[Donkeyforlife]

Why isn't anyone talking about Andrew "baby face" Hurst and his loss. I thought he was the Democrat king maker in the 11th. It seems like Longmeyers methodical way of reaching out too the voters is taking its toll on the Hurst, in your face, style.

[Not Harry Byrd, Sr.]

If Webb has positions on issues why hasn't he put them on his website yet? No one cares about his Scotch-Irish heritage 1700's Virginia heritage. I know where he stands on the Iraq. We need to know where he stands on:

- Tax Policy
- Labor Issues
- The Patriot Act/Civil Rights
- Women's Right to Choose
- Balancing the Budget
- Environmental Issues
- Affirmative Action/Social Programs/Medicare/Social Security

Virginia is 12.3% african-american. Is this key Democratic block going to come out for a guy who thinks the key to political success is courting "the Scots-Irish vote?"

http://www.jameswebb.com/articles/wallstjrnl/scotsirishvote.htm

Who can take "A Tradition of Strength," "A Matter of Honor," or a "Lifetime of Service" to the bank when it comes time for his vote in the Senate? As far as I've heard, Jim Webb:

- Has never voted in a Democratic Primary (not even in 2004)
- Never appeared at a Democratic event until running for office, and
- Has a lot of reasons to be a Republican.

If he can persuade the party faithful that he is in fact somewhat ideologically consistent with the Democratic Party, then he's got a shot.

I'm not anti-Webb and I want Allen out, I JUST WANT TO SEE SOMETHING IN WRITING ABOUT WHAT HIS POSITIONS ON:

SOME ISSUES

We don't want to read anything else about his pedigree. Everyone is caught up in this guy's celebrity status aura. Get him on the record ON SOME ISSUES. Then I'll think about voting for him.

[Adam Sharp]

Blah blah blah. There better be a tournament post tonight.

[Josh Chernila]

Transcribed from the handout at the Connolly St. Patrick's Day Dinner and Straw Poll:

WEBB FOR SENATE
In his own words:

IRAQ: "It was a big mistake putting the US in the middle of that region as an occupying power. We need to get out of there without further destabilizing the region, but as quickly as possible. We got in recklessly, we must get out carefully."
ECONOMIC FAIRNESS: "The people at the top are doing better than they ever have, but the middle class has stagnated, and the por are falling behind".
CHOICE: "I support Roe v. Wade."
TRADE:"Free trade isn't fair trade."
HEALTH CARE: "Access to affordable health care is a right all Virginians should have, but the Republicans in Washington are beholden to big insurance compaies and pharmaceutical companies; this is wrong."
ENERGY: "Big oil companies are making money hand over fist while we pay more and more for a gallon of gas and their production costs generally don't change. These corporations need to be held accountable; it's hurting the people of our state."
WEBB FOR SENATE

[Josh Chernila]

What more do you want, Adam?

What more have you gotten from Harris Miller?

[Dannyboy]

Not Harry Byrd, Sr.:
He posted a lot on Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/3/14/19014/5349) about where he stands. I'll see if I can help you.

Tax Policy: Re-write our current tax program so it's more fair to all Virginians. This is opposed to Harris Miller, who claimed on his radio interview that he supports making the Bush tax cuts permanent "I love the idea…I think it’s a great idea," while adding that "we have to do it in context."

Labor Issues: He used this quote a lot. "Fair trade isn't free trade." He wants to do more to protect Americans from outsourcing.

The Patriot Act: He called this one "a tricky one." He apparently supports some of the provisions of the Patriot Act, but not all of them. He has said he thinks the President is over-reaching his power, and appreciates Feingold's censure movement (he said he would seriously consider supporting it).

Women's Right to Choose: He has said that it's none of the government's business what he does behind his door. He opposes Partial Birth Abortion, however.

Social Programs:
Webb wants a National Healthcare Program. He admits he has no "miracle bill" to fix things, but wants to focus on that. He also supports our current Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security (no privitization). Miller does not support a National Health Care program (again, from his Radio Interview), though is interested in what he can do with Health Care.

As for Balance Budget and Environment, I haven't seen much. You can run through the blog and see if he says anything there, butI don't think he does. He was only there for an hour, and could only answer a few questions. Maybe you could write the campaign from it's website and ask him to do it again? Also, I agree he should post some issues on his website. Again, you should ask the campaign.

Not to sound negative or anything, but Miller hasn't posted an his issues on his site, either.

[Not Harry Byrd, Sr.]

Thanks Josh C. & Dannyboy. All that helps and is a good start in the right direction. Webb needs to put some positions on his website where everyone can access it. His site is totally devoid of substance.

I'm fully aware Miller isn't exactly Mr. Democrat either. Pushing for outsourcing, donations to Hastert/Specter/Abraham, etc., but he has a clear history with the Party which is at least some reassurance that he'll always caucus with the Democrats in the U.S. Senate.

If Webb can assure people that:

- He can campaign and will have a professional operation
- Can raise some money; and
- Most importantly, that he will adhere to the Democratic Party's core values,

Then, he might be tough for Miller to beat.

[A Liberal and Loyal Democrat]

This straw poll does not mean crap...big deal a small straw poll leans one way or another.

[James Young]

Interesting analysis, Ben, and probably accurate. But it was such a small sampling, Chairman Sean would've been better off just laughing it off, rather than lying about it and giving fodder to --- or creating, in some cases --- his enemies.

[Not Larry Sabato]

James, without making this too specific on Sean, my point is straw polls can give you an interesting glimpse into what is happening if you know who is voting in them.

In this case, I stand by my argument that the group voting last night for Webb should be Miller's strongest group, and as such he should drop out.

[Josh Chernila]

Nobody has yet emerged to say how Harris Miller will beat Allen in November. This staw poll shows that he can't win in his own house.

If he stays in, dems will welcome miler in whatever he does, but this isn't really Miller's fight and evetnaully, he's got to step aside and let James Webb take the fight to George Allen.

[Dannyboy]

I like how Josh said that. Pretty much sums up how I feel.

[Virginia Centrist]

You know what makes me sick?

Ultra-liberals demanding that Webb and Miller meet their litmus tests. And when they find that someone violates one single issue in the tiniest way, they jump all over them.

These people are idiots. We live in Virginia. If you want to nominate Bernard Sanders against George Allen, an incumbent with tons of money, then that's fine...but you're crazy.

[Mitch Cumstein]

Leave it to Jim Young to find a way to interject "Chairman Sean" into a debate about Democrat Senatorial candidates. Stalker!

[Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr.]

VC - who said anything about a litmus test? I simply think we're entitled to know what someone's position is on issues and make sure we're not sending another Richard Shelby, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, or Virgil Goode up before voting picking this person as the face of our party.

I'm all about picking the most electable person. Part of that is knowing their position on some issues - voters don't vote exclusively on resumes.

[Virginia Centrist]

Not Harry F. Byrd:

I wasn't referring to you. I had just finished reading comments on a Dailykos story by a bunch of people who undoubtedly live in California or Vermont or something...

If Ben Nighthorse Campbell wants run, good for him. What we are talking about here is a way to get one of the presumtive top Republican candidates for President to spend a ton of cash in a Senate reelection and do/say things that will hurt him in that eventual race as well as be tied up for a year.

[Virginia Centrist]

Where did this Ben Nighthorse Campbell nonsense come from?

Is these the talking points that the Harris Miller campaign is sending out?

If so, it's quite pathetic. Most people don't even know who that is...

[James Young]

Yeah, Mitch, using a comparision (valid or invalid) is obviously "stalking." Nice name-calling, though. So much easier than defending Chairman Sean's first instinct (which was to lie).

[ZB]

I find it HARD to believe that Chairman Connolly would complain (especially to his "good friend" NLS) about new people showing up at his fundraiser. Perhaps he was MARVELLING that there were so many people there he didn't know. At $35+ a head, that's $3500 in campaign contributions from new sources. The entire point of the straw poll was to BRING MORE PEOPLE to the event. Connolly is a smart politician---he would not be COMPLAINING that the straw poll (a fundraising TOOL) would be unfairly impacted by TOO MANY NEW DONORS.

[Virginia Centrist]

Unless he didn't care about paltry donors (he raised over $100k earlier in the day) and was mainly concerned about Harris Miller winning the straw poll.

[TLM]

Well, at least 30 or so of those new people were gay and transgender people who came to vote against the marraige amendment...not sure how they voted on the other races since there have been no endorsements yet from the VA Partisans...FYI, Ken Longmyer has been the only candidate so far of the four on the straw poll ballot to strongly go public supporting full marriage equality for same sex couples.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

I'm just a tad offended by Connolly's statements about "who are all these new people"? Friday night was the first time I'd ever shaken hands with Gerry. I'd never met him before, and I introduced myself as Doug Reimel from Mount Vernon, and he looked at me like "who the hell ARE you"? And in fact, I've been around in NoVA politics since 1999. So why hadn't he ever met me before? And does the fact that he'd not met me mean that I'm one of the 100 "newbies"? I'm not a newbie, and I'm a member of the Fairfax Democratic Committee, and a former Chairman of the Loudoun committee.

Just goes to show you, even if you think you know everyone in politics, you still don't.

Anyway, Gerry's event was great, but he really shouldn't be upset with "new" people who came to his fundraiser and donated to HIS campaign, and voted in his straw poll.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

That said, I think ZB's comments make sense. Why WOULD Connolly be upset with "newbies"? NLS, is this another one of your ploys? Damn it! Did I fall for one of them? ;-)