34th District Senate Race

A lot of buzz around Virginia political circles is the 2007 Senate elections, and the #1 race being discussed involves a potential matchup of freshman Senator JeanneMarie Devolites-Davis with former Delegate Chap Petersen.

This is really the perfect toss-up matchup. 

Both ousted incumbents to win their seats in the House of Delegates. 

Both did so in years that their Gubernatorial candidate carried their district. 
Both won with 52%. 

In their re-elections, both faced rematches with the person they ousted. 

Both won with 60% in the rematch. 

Both ran for Lt. Governor after two terms in the House.

The 34th Senate is made up of JeanneMarie's old House seat and Chap's old House seat, as well as a few other precincts south and east thrown in. 

I'd call this a "Tossup".

Comments

[Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr.]

I give Chap the edge. He knows how to pronounce Larranaga.

JeanneMarie would get the endorsement of the entire Fairfax City Council.

[Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr.]

Would that be the City Council for Fairfax City, Iowa?

Jeanmarie ran for Lt. Gov?

[Fred]

I've got to hand it to Not Harry for the Larranaga gaffe reminder!
Anyway, Chap's gotta take this. He's a great campaigner, he knows what the voters want, and the voters want him back representing them!

[Bwana]

Did JMD actually run for the nomination, or did she just talk about running? I ask as in my dottage I do not recall her running for LtGov.

[Too Conservative]

She did run for the nomination.

It was more than talk.

[Ghost of Henry Howell]

Chap has a better-looking spouse (sorry Tom!)

Why would Chap do that? It seems like a risky move to lose again.

[Virginia Centrist]

To last anon:

I think most casual observers would rate this as an easy win for Chap...

I disagree with NLS on this one. Chap would just win in a walk.

[republitarian]

I'd vote for Chap in a heartbeat.

[Not Impressed]

Chap will have to mend Dem fences locally...he burned a few in his state wide folly. Real Dems have long memories.

[Virginia Centrist]

Not Impressed:

Any explanation there?

It's not surprising that some "Real Dems" don't get along with some other "Real Dems" in Fairfax County, whether every Dem is waiting to backstab every other dem at any given point of time.

But will they mobilize against Davis? Yes....

[Bruce]

Then-Devolites did not run for LG. She began organizing, but never filed with the party (the nomination was decided by convention that year) and never printed materials.

An exploratory campaign where you never face a voter is not the same as running statewide like Chap did and then getting stomped even in your home region.

Both are diligent campaigners. Both are hard workers. Both are "attractive" campaigners. I think what would give Sen. Davis the edge is the benefit of incumbency and the reported $500,000 she has in the bank. I don't think Chap! has any money left over. He can raise more, but so can she.

I think Davis has done a better job at building ties in the Fairfax area (Chap's home) than Chap has at building ties in the Oakton/Vienna area (Davis' home).

As a result of these factors, I think Sen. Davis starts as the favorite.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Bruce, she printed materials.

[not gretchen bulova]

Bruce, I think you are forgetting that the district is 55% Dem.

[Southwest Dave]

JeanneMarie will kick Chap's butt. You forget most of the elected Dem's don't like Chap and think he is arrogant. They know that if Chap wins he is running for Governor and they have their own plans.
52 - 48 JeanneMarie.

[Marsden v. Chap]

Chap wouldn't get out of the primary, so why even worry about it.

[Virginia Centrist]

NGB:

And it'll probably be more than 55% Dem by 2007...

[otik_horack@yahoo.com]

Will NLS be managing Chap's campaign?

[James E. Martin]

Chap! will win if he runs, he simply a stronger campaigner.

[otikhorack]

One other thing: your blog entry leaves the clue that people are starting to discuss the 2007 Senate races in some detail. Would NLS be so kind as to divulge what other races are subject to such hot discussion so early?

[Dannyboy]

First of all, let me say that I'm a big Chap fan. I volunteered in Hampton Roads during the last primary for God knows how many hours.

That being said, it would be a very difficult campaign. One I think he could win, but still very difficult. And for those who say he can't get Democratic support...what? He'll have the support of Democrats regardless, because they'll all want a big win. They'll put aside ideas of Chap's political future because Democrats would rather have a Dem in that seat than a Republican, and if Chap can win, they'll get behind him. As long as Chap feels he can raise the money, I think he can win this one. But it'll be a close one, and I'm sure that this match would be one of the most closely watched in 2007.

[Riley, Not O'Reilly]

She may have printed materials, but they were never widely distributed. For all intents and purposes, she did not mount a full-fledged campaign and she did not remain in the race until the nomination was decided. Apples and oranges. Based upon that definition, I "ran" for Congress in New York 12 years ago.

[Riley, Not O'Reilly]

At least based upon my name being mentioned in the Cook Political Report for a whole year for a particular seat.

[Not Larry Sabato]

She flyered Viva Vienna one year Riley with her LG stuff. When you print stuff and distribute it to the general public, that is running.

[Dannyboy]

I have to agree with Ben there, dude. Sure, there's all that official stuff. But if you tell your constituents that you're running, you're running. That simple.

[Not Impressed]

VA Centrist:

Chap was the one who to cut first. He went out of his way to loudly distance himself from the traditional Democratic agenda and did his best to match George Allen and George Bush in his arrogance about it. Shannon does a better job of voting against the party without looking like a traitor..sort of.

To me Chap! comes across as a sleazy used car dealer. Or worse, an arrogant Republican. I don't trust him. Just because he yells louder and talks faster doesn't make him right.

That said, as a Dem who wants to take back power in the assembly, I'll be forced to try real hard to find a way to vote for him if he ends up on tha ballot next Fall...which really sucks since I live in the district. Please, please let's find someone else to run for that seat...Hmmm, may have to do it myself.

[Not Impressed with Shannon]

Chap may vote against the establishment at times, but you know where he stands. He is not afraid to get out front of an issue and tell you what he believes. You're not worried about him reneging if he says he'll vote for a bill.

Shannon on the other hand is spineless. Dems don't necessarily dislike him for voting against the party, they just think he does it because he has no backbone.

I think Chap's knowledge of campaigning and straight shooting style helps him a great deal in that district. I, for one, will be glad to have the chance to vote for him in 07.

[Christopher]

So you think it's a tossup? Maybe I would agree, but only after hitting the crackpipe six or seven times. Devolites in a walkover.

[not gretchen bulova]

I'm pushing for a Jerry O'Dell or Virginia Dobey indy campaign or primary challenge to JMDD.

Jerry was up yelling at her at the last FFX City debate, I'm hoping that anger carries over.

Restore honor and intergrity to the Senate. Vote Jerry O'Dell!

[ZB]

There is no way Devolites-Davis wins re-election unless NO ONE runs against her.

She barely won in 2003 against an unknown who barely campaigned until the final weeks. The district has grown more and more Democratic by the day. Devolites-Davis has not moderated her voting record----anti-choice, anti-gay, etc. Whoever the Democrat is, they will win this seat.

O'Brien and Cuccinelli may be toss-ups. This is a Dem Favored district.

[Freddie]

I hope Riley, Not O'Reilly runs for Congress in 2008. I'll volunteer for him.

[Bruce]

ZB - Do you not think Davis noticed she had it closer than expected and is better prepared this time?

Does anyone really think Davis is not doing everything she can do to prepare for this race? She is expecting Chap! or Connelly or someone higher profile - and is better established to win.

As for her LG run - I will have to agree with Riley. An exploratory effort, even with printed fliers, is not a full campaign. And no one knows how she would have done had she stayed in. She might even have won and beaten Kaine that year. Whereas we know that Chap! would not have won as he DID NOT WIN IN AN ACTUAL VOTE. There is a difference.

Chap! would be a tough opponent. But Sen. Davis is not going down without a serious fight. Ask George Lovelace - the last man to beat her who she then turned around and stomped in the next election.

[ZB]

No, I don't think she's improved her standing. She has not moderated. She had a chance to really win over moderates this session and didn't do it. She will lose.

[Matt]

Half the people in this area don't even know who their local senator is..

My brother voted for the person who actually visited our house during the delegate races. I would say JMDD has her eyes set on her husband's seat..so that if someone would actually spend the time to go house to house, they would win. Local races aren't as much about party, as about who you know. The only thing that could be in her favor, is if Tom Davis starts throwing money her way. Which he may just do.

[eq2 gold]

At least based upon my name being mentioned in the Cook Political Report for a whole year for a particular seat.