In yesterday's open thread one person noted that they received a phone call doing a poll, and asked if we had done it.
The answer is Yes.
Our first poll was in the field yesterday (we are skipping today) and will be completed by Tuesday or Wednesday of this week.
New technology has made this much more affordable then it would have been in the past. If you like the idea of seeing more independent polls we will be asking for your support of this project over the next week.
Our first poll is testing the Harris Miller vs. Jim Webb primary. This is only going out in Northern Virginia, we are hoping to do a statewide sample at another time soon.
If this works out as it seems to be so far, we will be able to poll races in Virginia that our readers are interested in.
As a teaser, we are already seeing a large gender gap, a large racial gap and two issues dominating the primary electorate.
How did you do this?
Posted by: | April 16, 2006 at 05:23 PM
Great Leapin Horney Toads!!!
Posted by: Webb Defeats Allen | April 16, 2006 at 05:31 PM
So what's your target sample size, Ben? Anything less than 500 is not credible.
Posted by: lenny | April 16, 2006 at 06:53 PM
anything not done over the span of a week isn't as well.
Posted by: | April 16, 2006 at 06:56 PM
For the tabulating/calculating we have a professional pollster from one of the leading DC polling groups running the numbers for us. They will decide what is appropriate.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | April 16, 2006 at 07:02 PM
Wow Ben, this is really taking it to the next level. I applaud you!
Posted by: J.C. Wilmore | April 16, 2006 at 07:04 PM
I'm impressed -- independent polling done by a blogger?
That's pretty cool, even if it's localized to Northern Virginia.
Too bad you endorsed Webb, because that's the first criticism out of the gate you'll hear (unfortunately). Nonetheless, I think (and hope) you're reputation for fairness will win out.
This is a great post in the making! I'll be interested to read the methodology and the NLS analysis, per usual.
Posted by: Shaun Kenney | April 16, 2006 at 07:06 PM
"As a teaser, we are already seeing a large gender gap, a large racial gap and two issues dominating the primary electorate."
Gender Gap: Women favor Miller, Men favor Webb
Racial Gap: Blacks fell for Miller's nonsense, so its large black support for Miller and white support for Webb
Two Issues: Iraq and Affirmative Action
That's just my guess.
Posted by: UVA08 | April 16, 2006 at 09:10 PM
I may have been out of this game too long and missed something, UVA08, but why would Blacks have fallen for Miller's nonsense and not Whites?
Posted by: Ben Kyber | April 16, 2006 at 10:12 PM
Ben Kyber.... I'm referring to the affirmative action controversy, the black legislators endorsement of Miller, and the Miller's campaign's attempt to paint Webb up as a racist.
Posted by: UVA08 | April 16, 2006 at 10:38 PM
I'm guessing the two issues are AA and gun rights. Webb is pretty pro-fun and I bet some Fairfax residents aren't wild on this. I couldn't see Iraq dividing Democrats at this point...
Posted by: Matt | April 16, 2006 at 10:39 PM
Webb is definitely PRO FUN! Have you seen www.georgesjourneys.com
Posted by: Libertas | April 16, 2006 at 11:05 PM
I commend the effort. However, if you have any expectation of this being a scientific study, then you cannot and shouldn't make statements about trends you are seeing. You haven't even collected all the data yet!
To hint at "trends," before the study is completed, sets you up for trouble. You may very well have to change your conclusions from your original declarations.
Posted by: Thegools | April 17, 2006 at 01:57 AM
Excellent point. Everything is subject to change depending on the final results that come in. Thanks for reminding people of that.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | April 17, 2006 at 02:14 AM
NLS, i'm a little hesitant to trust the outcome of this poll - is it being done by yourself, or are you hiring someone? I would bet money that it comes back showing too many undecideds and nobody knowing who Miller and Webb are to mean anythying if it comes back skewed towards one candidate, then we'll know it wasn't scientific.
Posted by: techie | April 17, 2006 at 08:38 AM
I agree with techno. If this poll comes back and gives numbers that I don't like or favors a candidate that i'm not voting for, then I will declare if bs.
Posted by: | April 17, 2006 at 08:55 AM
Dismissing a poll simply because you don't like the numbers or the candidate it supports... Seems exactly the same as dismissing logic simply because it doesn't agree with your perception.
Posted by: Liberal_Pi | April 17, 2006 at 09:34 AM
I don't think anyone is declaring this the best poll ever. What it will do is give us a cursory look at some numbers in the senate race. Will it be perfect? No. Will it still be useful? Most definitely yes.
Posted by: not gretchen bulova | April 17, 2006 at 09:46 AM
i'm anon 855 and i was being sarcastic. i agree with ngb
Posted by: | April 17, 2006 at 09:54 AM
I declare this the Best Poll Ever!
Posted by: Freddie | April 17, 2006 at 10:29 AM
Are you going to do a poll question on the Marriage Amendment?
Posted by: | April 17, 2006 at 11:22 AM
Wow, congrats on the poll. That's huge. The next thing we know, the real Larry Sabato will be changing his name to "Not Ben Tribbett."
Posted by: | April 17, 2006 at 01:13 PM
anon 1:13 wins best comment of the week.
Posted by: Josh Chernila | April 17, 2006 at 03:35 PM
anyone else curious where NLS got his names? You say this poll is NOVA... which localities? Whose voter file are you using? Seems a little sketchy to me.... but i'm still looking forward to the results!!
Posted by: Not Robert Roberts | April 17, 2006 at 07:42 PM
Any chance you're willing to share the name of your pollster? I'm almost more interested in how you got this rolling than the numbers that come out of it. These things are usually prohibitively expensive.
Posted by: | April 18, 2006 at 07:45 AM