Not Larry Sabato

Quiet Day

I haven't posted much today, Katie Couric leaving the today show got me thinking of Emily Couric, and its been a sad day.

I have a feeling a lot of others had the same feelings I had today, so this an open thread in memory of Emily.

Best Event of the Year

A free BBQ, with Chap Petersen, Leslie Byrne and Jim Webb.  I'll be there, come join me!

From Ox Road South:

It’s an “Old School” Virginia Democratic Event

Live Blue Grass, a Keg of Beer, Some Bar-B-Q
and U.S. Senate Candidate James Webb

Sunday, June 4th
2:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.

3936 Chain Bridge Road
(Home of John & Mary Petersen)
In Downtown Fairfax City
Map

With Chap Petersen and Special Guest Leslie Byrne
(Also invited State Senator Phil Puckett)

There is No Ticket Price

But Please Bring Your Checkbook if you want
Jim Webb to Take Back the U.S. Senate

Directions:

From Rte. 66, take 123 South to Fairfax
Take 123 into the downtown (it becomes Chain Bridge)
Parking will be at 3950 Chain Bridge or next-door church

From Rte. 50 heading east, take into Fairfax
It becomes Main Street
Turn left on Chain Bridge, house is one block on left

From Rte. 236 heading west, take into Fairfax
It becomes Main Street also
Turn right on Chain Bridge, house is right there!

Authorized by J. Chapman Petersen
Check www.oxroadsouth.com for further details
RSVP to chap@oxroadsouth.com

More on Chapman

Wow.  It's like Steve Chapman can't stop himself....

First, Jaded JD basically promises action against Chapman's attorneys if he finds out the lawsuit is real.

Then Chapman goes and verifies it for him in the newspaper.

I'd have to say at this point, his endorsement could lose someone the election.

Follow Up on the 7th District

A couple weeks ago, I did a post on the debacle being faced by the 7th District Democrats.  They had only one candidate file for a convention, who has made nude videos named Brad Blanton.  The convention decided not to nominate anyone rather than nominate him, and Blanton announced his candidacy as an Independent.

Since then, nasty emails have been going out.  Here's some highlights- looks to me like the 7th District made the right decision!

--------
From Brad Blanton (typesize and emphasis is his)

Yes Robin, above all else be concerned about moralism concerning politeness. After all, when the current government, with the full cooperation of Eric Cantor, makes terrorists of us all, politeness certainly is the value we should cling to. There are a few things we should be ashamed of. Some things I am really ashamed of and not willing to be or do anymore: I am not a corporate murderer. I am not a killer of hundreds upon hundreds of entire species of being. I am not a slaughterer of women and children and old men and young men and girls and grandmothers and grandfathers and young American boys and girls and babies and pets and innocents of all kinds, and for many generations to come, and for 2500 years yet to come of poisoning with radioactive uranium armour piercing artillery dust spread throughout Afghanistan and Iraq and in the bloodstreams of all our returning soldiers and all the poor unfortunate citizens of those countries. I am not the tenfold increaser of mutants and stillborn monsters and crippled and damaged children from radioactivity in the bodies of their parents here and in many other elsewheres in the world. I am not a greedy, starvation maker for a few cents profit per dying child. I am not a flagrant spender of billions of dollars on instruments of death and plans and personnel to use them, and bribery and brainwashing and bullshit while these infants starve and innocents get bombed into oblivion. I am not a self righteous hypocrite preaching love and dishing out hatred and punishment and vengeance and torture from my disowned rotted to the core religiously damaged self. I am not an arrogant rip off artist bragging about my con jobs, or a smirking defensive smug dumb ass like George W. Bush or Eric Cantor. I am not a psychologically retarded killer.  I am not a good American. And I am proud that I am not. America is not a good nation. America has it’s head up it’s collective ass and I intend to kick it until it pops out or die in the process. You and your two bit moralism are at the very heart of the problem. Your politeness is at the very heart of lying. You think character assassination is just as bad as murder. And even then, you are willing to do it, as you did with your gossip mongering and phony friendship with me, as did Tim Mitchell and Cliff and others. At least I can see a distinction between the two, and know that the evil sons of bitches I oppose are a class apart as thieves and murderers and terrorists that really kill and starve and steal and damage and harm real lives in the real world by the tens of thousands and for years to come, and that they make up a criminal class I could not begin to hold a candle to with regard to unfairness or immorality. Meanwhile we stringently and sincerely argue over what is polite and fair with regard to attribution of intention, etc. blah blah blah. The reason you are so disturbed about Richard defaming Tim is because it takes one to know one. Brad 

RTD lets us down

This weekend, the Richmond Times-Dispatch had an article on the Webb-Miller race.  Tyler Whitley really let everyone down at the end of the article with this:

"George Burke, the Fairfax County Democratic chairman, said the Webb campaign reminds him of Howard Dean's grassroots presidential bid in 2004. He appears to have the more fervent supporters and is relying on the Internet to spread his message, Burke said.

But he says the Miller campaign is better organized and appears to be ahead in Fairfax, the most populous locality in the state. Both candidates are from Fairfax and have devoted a lot of time to that county."

First, George is Chair of the 11th District Committee, not Fairfax County. 

But more important- Before quoting Burke like an analyst, how about noting his two Miller signs in his front yard!

Reporters around the state, note that a fraud of neutrality has been visited upon you by George Burke.  There must be consequences for misleading the media.

Outrage

Greg reports that Steve Chapman is planning to continue his lawsuit against Black Velvet Bruce Lee.

My understanding is that Chapman never withdrew from the campaign, he just forgot to file for the convention.  Now this?

Steve is on the verge of going down as the worst candidate in Virginia history.  I wonder if Corey Stewart or Bob Fitzsimmonds realize how much this is hurting their reputations as well?

Brutal Article

Virginia Centrist has more on the Harris Miller debacle in today's Washington Post. 

I've said it before, and I will say it again.  Marc Fisher is the best columnist at the Post because he calls it like it is.

My favorite quote: "Miller is a Republican strategist's dream opponent. He's as charismatic as a toaster, wonkier than Al Gore and as proudly liberal as Al Franken. And at just about the worst time ever to be one, he's a lobbyist ."

Santorum for Virginia

A few months ago, I posted speculating on whether Senator Rick Santorum might seek election here in Virginia in 2008, since he actually lives here.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has decided to make sure Pennsylvania voters know that also.

Good for them. 

George Allen and George Bush- CD 1

Part One of Eleven

The election results from 2000 on a statewide basis show what appears to be a statewide Republican machine voting for Bush-Allen. 

George W. Bush got 1,437,490 votes (52.5%) while George Allen got 1,420,460 (52.3%). 

But a closer look by Congressional district shows a significant number of split tickets, some places for Gore-Allen, others for Bush-Robb.

Because the numbers ended up so close statewide, it is interesting to see how different areas voted.  The crossover voting may give us some ideas on where this years Senate race will be fought out.

In the 2000 boundaries of the 1st Congressional District (CD), here's how the localities broke down:

Caroline County:  Allen 1.5% AHEAD of Bush
Essex County:  Allen 0.9% AHEAD of Bush
King and Queen County:  Allen 3.0% AHEAD of Bush
King William County:  Allen 0.6% AHEAD of Bush
Northumberland County:  Allen 0.9% AHEAD of Bush
Richmond County:  Allen 1.7% AHEAD of Bush
Westmoreland County:  Allen 0.4% AHEAD of Bush

Accomack County:  Allen 0.5% BEHIND Bush
Gloucester County:  Allen 2.7% BEHIND Bush
James City County:  Allen 5.1% BEHIND Bush
King George County: Allen 2.2% BEHIND Bush
Lancaster County:  Allen 1.9% BEHIND Bush
Matthews County:  Allen 1.9% BEHIND Bush
Middlesex County:  Allen 0.6% BEHIND Bush
Northampton County:  Allen 2.9% BEHIND Bush
Spotsylvania County:  Allen 0.9% BEHIND Bush
Stafford County:  Allen 1.4% BEHIND Bush
York County:  Allen 4.6% BEHIND Bush
Fredericksburg City:  Allen 2.0% BEHIND Bush
Hampton City:  Allen 2.5% BEHIND Bush
Newport News City:  Allen 3.3% BEHIND Bush
Poquoson City:  Allen 5.8% BEHIND Bush
Williamsburg City:  Allen 4.2% BEHIND Bush

As you can see from this map (click to enlarge it), the old 1st District had four distinct geographic parts. 

In the greater Fredericksburg area, which was starting at the time to turn into deep exurbs of Northern Virginia, Allen ran a little behind George W. Bush. 

As you move south and east, the Northern Neck and the Middle Neck both voted better for Allen than Bush.  This would indicate Allen will be very strong here this November.

The Peninsula was where Allen was weakest in the 1st district, running well behind Bush.  That large percentage that voted Bush/Robb will be important in November, and it may also shadow some weakness for Allen when he has to generate the turnout without Bush this November.

The Eastern Shore showed Allen running a little behind Bush.  This may be another area to watch in November.

Thanks to Kenton Ngo for the map- as always excellent job done by Kenton.

Blog Carnival

Thanks to Spank That Donkey for hosting a great Virginia Blog Carnival this Memorial Day.

I also see Elephant Ears, Extra Innings, Vivian Paige and Commonwealth Conservative have up some Memorial Day tributes.

It's good to see the blogosphere isn't forgetting why this is a holiday.