Not Larry Sabato

Weenie of the Week

Nominations?

Goodbye TC

Too Conservative is on his way to Texas, but before he left this morning he gave us a good update on the 10th CD, and on the Prince William Chairman's race.

I'm looking forward to some of the new contributors at TC, and congratulations to Vincent for a job well done.

Consider this an open thread to call Vince or Sean a RINO.  :)

RUMORED SHAKEUP IN WEBB CAMPAIGN

RUMOR CIRCULATING THAT JESSICA THE CAMPAIGN MANAGER IS GOING TO BE DEMOTED TO DEPUTY CAMPAIGN MANAGER

WEBB CONSULTANT STEVE JARDING TO TAKE OVER AS CAMPAIGN MANAGER.

QUESTIONS CIRCULATING ON HOW STEVE CAN DO THE CAMPAIGN WHILE TEACHING CLASSES FIVE DAYS A WEEK AT HARVARD THIS FALL.

DEVELOPING.....

A Sad Report from the Webb Campaign

NLS,

Please, this is not for attribution, but the Webb campaign is in the midst
of a real meltdown. All of the reports of disorganization in the campaign
during the primary were right on the mark, but it was actually worse than
reported. Talk of a much needed post primary campaign shakeup has actually gone in the other direction with the campaign manager consolidating power
and plans to hire inexperienced out of state rookies like herself. This is
someone who will be running, in essence, a "national" campaign, having
graduated from a small Iowa college in 2000 and with maybe a year of actual
campaign experience!  This a disastrous combination with a real novice
candidate. Campaign manager Jessica Vandenburg is now particularly incensed with blogger comments questioning her competence, and as a result, she is purging anyone from the campaign suspected of "disloyalty" and posting unfavorable blogger comments.

Who knows, maybe Jim Webb will get lucky and win, but it won't be with the present dedicated army of volunteers who will soon be leaving in droves, and with little or no prospect of new recruits to fill the void. This is not a good sign for a campaign desperately in need to get off the ground against a seasoned popular pol like George Allen, whose campaign roster includes tough political veterans like Dick Wadhams, Mary Matalin, and Swift Boat creator Larry LaCivita . I will keep you posted, but keep your ear to the ground.

-Deep Throat

P.S. My motivation in writing is, I am actually trying to help the candidate,
whom I regard as a great American who deserves a fair shot at George Allen.

Fairfax Flooding

A number of homes in the Mt. Vernon area were overrun and nearly destroyed by floods this week.  Read more about the situation on Extra Innings.

Tomorrow, Volunteer Fairfax is going to be helping those people who were impacted.  I am going to the 1230-5 p.m. shift, and I hope others will consider going as well.  Sign up here, and let me know if you can join me.

(Thanks to Doug in Mt Vernon for sending this over)

Ed Barber should Resign

As Conaway points out, yesterday Ed Barber pled guilty to two misdemeanors to plead out of the felony charges against him.

Specifically, he is now convicted of "misdemeanor charges of sexually abusing a child".

This shouldn't be a hard decision.  Mr. Barber has to go.

CRUSHING POLL

New poll

George Allen 56%
Jim Webb 37%

-------------------------------------------

UPDATE:  After looking at the crosstabs, this poll looks like it could be on target.

First of all, Survey USA nailed the Governors race last fall.

Compare this poll to that one.

2005's poll showed 39% of Virginians considered themselves Republicans, 34% Democrats and the rest Independents.

This poll shows 44% Republicans (+5%), 32% Democrats (-2%) and the rest Independents.

Welcome to Virginia. 

In places like Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Norfolk, and other parts of Hampton Roads more conservative leaning military voters do not vote in large numbers in state elections, but do in federal elections.  Guess what party they are? 

In Metro-Richmond, the electorate also changes to include a larger chunk of voters.  State workers who can lean Democratic and keep Democrats close in Metro Richmond state elections are dwarfed by their conservative neighbors in the Richmond suburbs.

Last year's poll showed 83% white, 13% black.  This poll is 78% white, 14% black.  Nothing for Democrats to complain about there.

Last years poll was 51% women, now this poll is 52% men.  Democrats could complain if Webb lead among women, but he doesn't lead among either.  Even if you moved the numbers to 51% women, Webb would gain 13 points margin among 3% of the population.  Move that 3% both ways (women +3, men -3) and that movement means 0.13x 6% or 0.78% poll movement.  Rounded UP- adjusting the gender number only moves the race ONE point overall to an EIGHTEEN point Webb deficit.

Time to deal with reality guys.  Webb needs to overhaul his campaign immediately to stay competitive.  More on this tomorrow.

An ugly start to a new era

Everyone can agree Prince William has changed dramatically under Sean Connaughton's Chairmanship.  The value of being Chairman of Prince William County is much greater than it has ever been before, and many candidates are looking at trying to take this seat.

Unfortunately on the first day of a new era, it is already getting ugly.

First, Supervisor Corey Stewart announced his campaign for Chairman on the same day Connaughton was appointed.  Corey is the front runner, and he needs to look like he is.  Announcing the same day as Sean's appointment didn't help that perception.

Then, Vincent attacks Stewart by implication, by mentioning his candidacy, then going into a rampage where he declares only two Republicans (not including Corey) could possibly win the election.  In a majority GOP county that was the only major NoVA locality to vote for Bill Bolling last year, its hard to believe that no other Republican besides Sean's close allies could possibly win. 

The truth is any Republican will begin this campaign as the favorite to win the election, but Democrats are close enough that any Republican could also slip and lose this election as well.

The fundamental issue in this election is going to be growth.  The problem Marty Nohe and/or Wally Covington will run into is a slow growth challenge in the nominating process (Stewart) and a likely slow growth challenger in the general election (Gary Freidman).  Nohe and Covington's best case scenario is hoping former Delegate David Brickley gets in, and wins the Democratic nomination to avoid back to back growth showdowns.

I just don't see where Nohe or Covington will get the votes to defeat Stewart in a convention.

Here's your cheat sheet:

GOP Players
Supervisor Marty Nohe
Supervisor Corey Stewart
Supervisor Wally Covington

DEM Players
Former Delegate David Brickley
Gary Friedman

Slow Growth
Supervisor Corey Stewart
Gary Friedman

Favorable to Developers
Supervisor Wally Covington
Former Delegate David Brickley
Supervisor Marty Nohe

GOP Nomination:  Leans Stewart
DEM Nomination:  Toss Up
Special Election:  Leans Republican

Protect the kids, ban smoking

Column by Not Gretchen Bulova:

The U.S. Surgeon General has come out with a new report, highlighting the negative impact second-hand smoke has on non-smokers.

"The health effects of secondhand smoke exposure are more pervasive than we previously thought," Carmona said. "The scientific evidence is now indisputable: Secondhand smoke is not a mere annoyance. It is a serious health hazard that can lead to disease and premature death in children and nonsmoking adults."

While I find it interesting that they are just confirming how harmful second-hand smoke can be, I'm glad they are finally coming forward with their findings.  We need an outright ban on smoking in all indoor places, escept private homes, and eventually a ban on smoking anywhere but in a private home. 

The Virginia Senate took action last year, hopefully both houses will follow through this coming session.  The tobacco special interests are fighting a losing battle, eventually public health with overtake their powerful lobby.

JARDING goes NUTS

The Webb campaign issued a press release from Steve Jarding today.  It was the most bizarre thing I have ever seen in a campaign.

To set this up- Jim Webb announced earlier this week he opposed to flag burning amendment for 1st Amendment reason. 
George Allen, of course blasted that position. 

Then today, Steve Jarding challenged the right of a United States Senator to speak out on this issue????  He managed to completely undercut his own candidate's position on the amendment since it was based on the right to free speech. 
But incumbent Senators don't share that right, Steve?!

From the release:

"George Felix Allen Jr. and his bush-league lapdog, Dick Wadhams, have not earned the right to challenge Jim Webb’s position on free speech and flag burning."...

"Jarding continued, “The following is why George Felix Allen Jr. has not earned the right to challenge Jim Webb in his support of our Constitution and its free speech provisions:"

First of all Steve, no one has to EARN any right in our constitution.  So get that straight right now. 

Steve Jarding, you do not determine who gets certain constitutional rights.

Second of all, if we did have to earn the right to speak- George Allen certainly did when he received 1,420,460 votes to represent Virginia in the United States Senate.

Outrageous.

UPDATE:  Raising Kaine says Wadhams goes Nuts.  Heh.
Richmond Indy thinks the key to a Webb win is "Felix"