Everyone can agree Prince William has changed dramatically under Sean Connaughton's Chairmanship. The value of being Chairman of Prince William County is much greater than it has ever been before, and many candidates are looking at trying to take this seat.
Unfortunately on the first day of a new era, it is already getting ugly.
First, Supervisor Corey Stewart announced his campaign for Chairman on the same day Connaughton was appointed. Corey is the front runner, and he needs to look like he is. Announcing the same day as Sean's appointment didn't help that perception.
Then, Vincent attacks Stewart by implication, by mentioning his candidacy, then going into a rampage where he declares only two Republicans (not including Corey) could possibly win the election. In a majority GOP county that was the only major NoVA locality to vote for Bill Bolling last year, its hard to believe that no other Republican besides Sean's close allies could possibly win.
The truth is any Republican will begin this campaign as the favorite to win the election, but Democrats are close enough that any Republican could also slip and lose this election as well.
The fundamental issue in this election is going to be growth. The problem Marty Nohe and/or Wally Covington will run into is a slow growth challenge in the nominating process (Stewart) and a likely slow growth challenger in the general election (Gary Freidman). Nohe and Covington's best case scenario is hoping former Delegate David Brickley gets in, and wins the Democratic nomination to avoid back to back growth showdowns.
I just don't see where Nohe or Covington will get the votes to defeat Stewart in a convention.
Here's your cheat sheet:
GOP Players
Supervisor Marty Nohe
Supervisor Corey Stewart
Supervisor Wally Covington
DEM Players
Former Delegate David Brickley
Gary Friedman
Slow Growth
Supervisor Corey Stewart
Gary Friedman
Favorable to Developers
Supervisor Wally Covington
Former Delegate David Brickley
Supervisor Marty Nohe
GOP Nomination: Leans Stewart
DEM Nomination: Toss Up
Special Election: Leans Republican
Good analysis ... thank you for correcting, TC, in that Nohe or Caddigan have no more 'advantage' in the general than Stewart does.
Posted by: PWC resident | June 28, 2006 at 12:33 PM
Definitely an interesting analysis of the race. This going to be very good for the county I believe as it should really bring the development and transportation issues into the limelight.
In case you missed it I posted a two part entry on my conversation with Supervisor Stewart yesterday (Part I: http://www.vitter.com/craigsmusings/Entry.aspx?entry=301 and Part II: http://www.vitter.com/craigsmusings/Entry.aspx?entry=304).
While I think it is too early for me to personally endores any one candidate I find Stewart and Friedman strongest on the development issue right now.
Posted by: Craig | June 28, 2006 at 01:24 PM
Interesting analysis, Ben. Not sure I agree that Corey is the favorite --- I'm not sure there is any "favorite" --- but there's not much else with which I can disagree.
I wasn't aware that Brickley was looking at this race. However, I can't believe that he helps Dem chances.
Posted by: James Young | June 28, 2006 at 01:33 PM
This is all very premature. The key GOP players (other than Corey) are taking their time on this, as they should.
I do find it interesting, however, that Dem blogs, such as this one and Craig's, are immediately declaring Stewart the front-runner. Is this just a major disconnect or wishful thinking?
Posted by: Mitch Cumstein | June 28, 2006 at 01:49 PM
No Mitch-
It's because Corey's right on the development issue. And with two moderates in the race (Nohe & Caddigan), it would make sense that a conservative could push through.
Posted by: | June 28, 2006 at 01:54 PM
Mitch is also wrong on labeling me (or my blog) part of the Democratic Party. I am an avowed independent and I know that he is familiar enough with me and my blog to know this (I know that Mitch and I have even agreed on issues in the past).
My comments on Stewart and Friedman stem from the fact that I have met and spoken to both candidates on the subject. I hope to have the chance to do the same with other candidates for the position as they declare themselves. I have no party centric agenda. As a citizen of PWC I want the best person for the job regardless of whether there is an R, D, or I after their name.
Posted by: Craig | June 28, 2006 at 02:32 PM
Craig,
My bad.
Posted by: Mitch Cumstein | June 28, 2006 at 03:14 PM
Or a new post for an ugly blog?
Posted by: Doug in Mount Vernon | June 28, 2006 at 03:27 PM
ha!
Ben you're out of touch with this race.
Covington is not likely to run...Caddigan is.
I've knocked doors in PWC this past year, spoken to voters about their pressing issues, have you man?
The voters I spoke to wanted their transportation problem solved.
Stewart worked against Sean on transportation.
They want education solved.
Stewart worked against Sean on education.
Stewart is not ahead.
Sean won the primary in the county.
Jackson Miller...who is close with Marty..just won a convention.
Lingamfelter and Marshall who both are rumored not to like Corey are delegates.
School Board Chair Lucy Beachamp isnt a Corey fan either.
Just because 100 dolts on the committee support him, doesnt mean he can win a convention.
Posted by: Too Conservative | June 28, 2006 at 03:59 PM
Vince is only in touch with Sean's ass. That's why when Sean shits, Vince ducks.
Posted by: | June 28, 2006 at 04:33 PM
All you need to do to beat Stewart is this... 20,000 mailers saying "Stewart voted against tax relief".
Way to go Corey, you voted against lowering the property tax rate and implementing the tax growth limits. Insiders will think youre conservative, but a well run campaign will show you arent.
Nohe or Caddigan will have the nomination and the seat.
Posted by: The Truth | June 28, 2006 at 05:03 PM
When Connaughton departs, it's a 52 pick-up jurisdiction. Stewart may have some advantages in getting the nomination if he can control the process and keep it within the tight confines of the PW Republican Committee. But he has repeatedly stumble in efforts to present himself as a leader. This will be an interesting race because, particularly if the Republicans nominate Stewart, Democrats will have opportunities they haven't had since Connaughton beat Seefeldt. I really question also whether there's an anti-growth groundswell in PW. Growth has issues. Certain projects are more objectionable than others. But PW under Connaughton has kind of tacked from project to project, using some skillful arm-twisting to get the developers to cough up up-front money, but not being particularly binary on the issue. My sense is that most of the citizens think there's merit in that approach. Obviously the pols will try to harness it up. They may get traction with it. But I would think a "stay the course" approach will have some friends come November.
Posted by: NOVA Scout | June 28, 2006 at 06:09 PM
Maureen Caddigan....you have got to be kidding me. If she could stop talking about herself for five minutes maybe she would consider it. An absolute flake!
Posted by: | June 28, 2006 at 07:14 PM
The thing that is so maddening about Corey Stewart is that if you could just wrap up his belief in a better package, he would have the unchallenged support of Republicans in PWC. Stewart's position on growth actually is something I can support (though I don't live in PWC). In my opinion, the reason Republicans are struggling in NOVA above all is our position on growth. Too many conservatives favor uncontrolled development, and Stewart's support of slow growth is something that has great value. If he just were a little less Chapmanish, he would do so much better.
Posted by: Mason Conservative | June 28, 2006 at 07:48 PM
A little less "Chapmanish"? What is that supposed to mean?
If you look only at the few legitimate criticisms raised against Chapman, none of them seem to apply to Corey.
I'm not trying to pick a fight, I just want to understand what characteristics you are talking about Corey having that are both negative and "chapmanish".
Posted by: charles | June 28, 2006 at 08:54 PM
Craig, while I'm certainly willing to take you at your word, that you have agreed with "Mitch" does not disprove the theory that yours is a Democratic blog. Quite the contrary....
Posted by: James Young | June 28, 2006 at 11:21 PM
Sorry James, I was under the impression that Mitch was a moderate Republican... maybe that makes him a Democrat in some peoples' eyes?
Why is it that Democrats never seem to call fellow Democrats Republicans?
Posted by: Craig | June 29, 2006 at 06:59 AM
Craig:
Your impression is correct. Apparently, that isn't good enough for some. But I don't typically worry much about those that feel that way.
Posted by: Mitch Cumstein | June 29, 2006 at 07:49 AM
Stewart talks about growth then pushes a project to add 800 homes onto Route 15 in Haymarket and 600 homes onto I-95 in Woodbridge. He talks the talk but doesn't walk the walk.
Posted by: | June 29, 2006 at 08:14 AM
Craig, aside from the fact that "moderate" is a label that Liberals who don't like the electoral consequences of that label apply to themselves, I didn't call "Mitch" a Democrat. Actually, I have no idea what he is, since he hides his identity. I know he makes many pretensions to being a Republican, but then trashes other Republicans, and supports Democrat policy preferences.
What's the old saw about a duck?
Posted by: James Young | June 29, 2006 at 09:44 AM
Stewart already has a ferocious and organized campaign. Over the past several months, not days, he has aggressively cut deep into his opponents' turfs in Brentsville, Coles and Dumfries. He has systematically established himself over the past three years as the anti-tax controlled-growth candidate and has garnered the endorsements of every key Republican office holder and conservative activist in the area. This will be a shock and awe campaign of intimidation.
Posted by: Anon | June 30, 2006 at 02:22 PM
I'd be very interested to know who these "key Republican office holders" are. Sounds alot more like smoke and mirrors than "shock and awe" to me.
Posted by: Mitch Cumstein | June 30, 2006 at 05:00 PM
re anon's 1422 post: "intimidation" and "schock and awe" hardly seem like qualities that voters will warm to after several years of Connaughton's geniality. What kind of kid writes that kind of stuff anyway? "Schock and awe." "Intimidation" Sheesh! Corey needs to distance himself from that kind of talk - unless anon 1422 IS Corey. The thing does have the ring of some of Stewart's famous "anonymous" comments. Naw... that would be just too strange.
Posted by: NOVA Scout | June 30, 2006 at 11:08 PM
A thousand-li journey is started by taking the first step
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