CRUSHING POLL

New poll

George Allen 56%
Jim Webb 37%

-------------------------------------------

UPDATE:  After looking at the crosstabs, this poll looks like it could be on target.

First of all, Survey USA nailed the Governors race last fall.

Compare this poll to that one.

2005's poll showed 39% of Virginians considered themselves Republicans, 34% Democrats and the rest Independents.

This poll shows 44% Republicans (+5%), 32% Democrats (-2%) and the rest Independents.

Welcome to Virginia. 

In places like Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Norfolk, and other parts of Hampton Roads more conservative leaning military voters do not vote in large numbers in state elections, but do in federal elections.  Guess what party they are? 

In Metro-Richmond, the electorate also changes to include a larger chunk of voters.  State workers who can lean Democratic and keep Democrats close in Metro Richmond state elections are dwarfed by their conservative neighbors in the Richmond suburbs.

Last year's poll showed 83% white, 13% black.  This poll is 78% white, 14% black.  Nothing for Democrats to complain about there.

Last years poll was 51% women, now this poll is 52% men.  Democrats could complain if Webb lead among women, but he doesn't lead among either.  Even if you moved the numbers to 51% women, Webb would gain 13 points margin among 3% of the population.  Move that 3% both ways (women +3, men -3) and that movement means 0.13x 6% or 0.78% poll movement.  Rounded UP- adjusting the gender number only moves the race ONE point overall to an EIGHTEEN point Webb deficit.

Time to deal with reality guys.  Webb needs to overhaul his campaign immediately to stay competitive.  More on this tomorrow.

Comments

[GinterParked]

A SurveyUSA poll. I'm sorry, I meant SurveyRepubs. These folks have the credibility of Mayor McCheese.

[not gretchen bulova]

Definitely bad news, but SurveyUSA must have pushed undecided voters like never before to get 3% undecided in June. That's crazy

[winconservative]

Ouch,

I think Allen is ahead but not by 20 points but I'll go ahead and take it. Sen. Allen's "non-partisan" TV blitz is doing an effective job.

[Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr.]

Maybe someone should cut and paste this into their article tomorrow:

"WJLA should be embarrassed to print this," said Steve Jarding, Webb's campaign manager. "This poll is a joke. ... Survey USA has long ago been discredited."

Jarding also accused Survey USA of being biased against Webb's re-election and said Allen's campaign seems to be based solely on staying the course in Iraq.

[Mason Conservative]

Good news for Allen BUT . . .

Webb hasn't gone on air yet. That is why I am only cautiously optimistic. Clearly Allen starts off ahead, but he's on TV statewide already, while Webb hasn't begun yet. So I don't think this is a big deal right now. If these are the numbers in September, then its a big deal.

NLS, its not crushing. The campaign at this point is a Wadhams-Jarding pissing match. As an Allen supporter, naturally I'm please, but I'm not thrilled. There is still soooo much more time.

[Not Larry Sabato]

NHFB- where do you see that?

[Melissa]

It says, "Question asked of 533 likely voters" out of the 984 that were registered to vote in the sample of 1,200. Now, I'm not a DMIS major, and Statistical Analysis for Business Managers was like, the worst class ever, but even I can see that that's a pretty crappy sample for any poll.

That's so telling, I'm going to switch sides.

Except not really.

Basically, all of this: http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/Link.asp?L=196941 is meaningless, Ben. C'mon. You can do better than that.

[not gretchen bulova]

Mellisa, why does that make it meaningless? I think there are other things that seem to be wrong, but their prediction is that about 60% of registered voters will turn out and thus be "likely" voters. That doesn't seem off to me.

[BDM]

Melissa, if VA Progressive has a post saying the country wants Democrats to be in Congress through a USA Today/Gallup poll, then why should this one be meaningless? There is A LOT of time between now and November. In addition, Jim Webb is trailing because he hasn't even gotten anything going. No tv ads, no radio ads, no circulars in the mail.

[Tom Wise]

pretty depressing..but as they say "the only cause worth fighting for is a loosing cause"

Webb has is work cut out for him this summer..

[Mason Conservative]

Ben, are you sure you aren't secretly an Allen supporter? Cause that would be cool, :-)

[Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr.]

I took Dick Wadams' quote from the Daily Press and substituted names.

[Hanover]

These polls mean nothing, since Webb hasn't been on TV yet.

Though, Allen will kill him on money.

The bottom line is, GFA is absolutely going to throttle him. And he will enjoy doing it.

Webb will continue to make mistakes by intentionally antagonizing Allen.

There is nothing better than Allen likes than a good fight.

Jim Webb will go down as one more Democrat who got put up for election because he had a military record. He is Virginia's Paul Hackett.

Every Democrat who is jumping up and down about Webb's military service was doing the same thing in 1992 and 1996 to claim that Clinton's non-service didn't matter.

If military service is the key to a candidate's qualification, then Lowell (et al) should have voted for Bob Dole.

Forgive me, but I am a little skeptical about a middle-aged, cubicle-dwelling, federal government, paper-pushing, keyboard monkey named Lowell and his political acumen.

Offense intended.

[Melissa]

It seems like the sample size is way too small to effectively ensure a random sample. I'm not arguing wiht the 60% of registered voters will turn out and be "likely" voters. It's the fact that any survey is meaningless if the sample does not caputure the population, here the likely voters of Virginia.

I haven't done the math yet, but at a 4.3% standard error, looking at the formula for determining a sample size to ensure a truly random sample that is representative of the population, the sample would have to be more than 533- or even 1,200. Let me work it out first, but it just looks wrong.

[Vivian J. Paige]

My partner got polled this weekend while I was out of town. She said the poll took quite a long time - about half an hour. I wish I had been home just to get the questions so that I could try to figure out who was doing the polling. As best as she can remember, it looks like it was a Drake poll.

I got polled tonight - computer voice, single question on minimum wage.

In any event, I think this poll shows just how much work is ahead of Webb.

from wikipedia ...
SurveyUSA does not use live call center employees, but an automated system. Taped questions are asked of the respondent by a professional announcer (usually a local news anchor), and the respondent is invited to press a button on their touch tone telephone or record a message at a prompt designating their selection.

So Allen leads amoung the few people who don't instantly delete robocalls.

Bitching Methodology!

[lenny]

Melissa, I won't dismiss this poll as inaccurate. SUSA has a very good track record polling state races.

The key for Webb is to get on the air and soon. I still like Webb's chances. He hasn't begun his media offensive yet.

[Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr.]

Everyone should stop attacking the poll and start working for Webb. Wadams did the same thing last week and everyone made fun of him.

What says the most to me is that:

- Allen is on his second ad
- He's sending out mail
- He's attacking anyone and anything that breathes Jim Webb's name; and
- He's doing it all IN JUNE.

There are 2 other Senate Campaigns in the country right now with ads up that I'm aware of - Montana and Rhode Island. Both have GOP incumbents widely seen as endangered.

Allen's internals are ugly and show he's soft or he wouldn't be spending all of this money in June.

That tells me all I need to know.

[Ajacied]

Ben -- I expect better out of you... let's go to the crosstabs:

1) Males don't typically vote in a higher number than females. Webb is doing better with women than men, so let's shave a few points off Allen's lead there, even giving Allen 52% of the female vote.

2) African-Americans are NOT going to vote at a 25% clip for George Allen. They're just not. They may not turn out in the numbers Webb needs to win, but they're not going to come out and vote for Allen. A few more points off Allen's lead. This was an issue with SUSA's early polls last year giving too high a %age for Kilgore... AA's came home, their final poll showed Kaine +10/+6 Kaine wins by 6.

3) 20% of liberals are not going to vote for Allen. Are you kidding me?

4) Allen is NOT going to win 54% of the urban vote. Are you kidding me?

I know you're mad at the Webb campaign, calling for the leader's heads and all all the time, but, come on. You're better than this.

Cheers,
Ajacied

[SurveyFOGA]

Do you believe that the burning or desecration of the American flag degrades those who fought and died for America, and, therefore, that the flag should be protected by the U.S. Constitution?
Yes 25.3%
No 74.7%

[Not Huey Long]

There are several positive numbers in this poll for Webb (despite it's biased, small sample size).

1. The 66% correlation between Bush disapproval and Webb voters.
2. The 46 to 46% split among "Northeast" voters.
3. Those with "Moderate" ideologies sided with Webb 49 to Allen's 44%.

Overall, not terrific news, but the sky is not falling.

[demo]

Its fun to read all of the comments on why SurveyUSA is wrong. Sure this poll hurts ... Survey USA has a very good track record. Not only do they have a good track record (their poll showing Kaine winning by 7 points that they released the day before the election looks good now) most folks accuse then of favoring DEMS!!!
I know it sucks but call a spade a spade.

[demo]

Webb needs money! He isn't going anywhere unless he raises serious cash. I don't expect that to happen soon. I bet they raised next to nothing

[Kilo]

Filtering: 1,200 Virginia adults were interviewed 6/25/06 - 6/27/06. Of them, 984 were registered to vote. Of them, 533 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

That is not a small sample size. Before you attack Ben and Survey USA you should read the track record and down load the spreadsheet. maybe Ben is bored and will post the record online for us.
http://www.surveyusa.com/electiontrackrecord.html

[Melissa]

Looking at my (quick) calcuations, 533 is about right if you estimate 60% turnout of all registered voters, including those overseas/voting abesentee. I dunno though, the number just seems waaaay too small to me. Maybe it's because this isn't just a simple "yes or no" type of question, there are so many variables to be factored in that you can't determine just by a simple equation, just like Ajacied was saying. A lot of those numbers just don't make a whole lot of sense.

[Mason Conservative]

No, he'll raise money. The national party is stoked for him, but if he keeps getting polling numbers like this, that will dry up fast

[demo]

What is small about the sample size? margin of error of 4.3% that isn't high.

[Virginia's Right Stuff]

I'm not surprised by that poll. Outside of the Democratic Party, most people don't know who Jim Webb is.

[demo]

National folks will go soon. They might have been able to prop him upo in the primary but its going to take a lot more than the support of Kerry and Reid. Its usually called Raise and Play. You have to actually raise a few bucks before they are going to put in any money.

[Melissa]

Dude, Demo, I just said it was about right, assuming 60% turnout and a 95% confidence interval. I also said it doesn't seem right to me, because not only am I an idiot/complete ditz, but it just seems like because of the great number of variables in this type of survey, that it is a little small.

Maybe this DC gal is biased- after all, I had 230 people in one class last semester- but it just feels like the number is a little small. Maybe I'm wrong- it's been known to happen before ;) but it's just how I happen to feel about it.

[charles]

this isn't exactly about the poll, but as Not Harry said, Allen's done several campaign things in June.

He also managed to go to IOWA right after the primary, just like the Webb people said he would do if MILLER won the primary.

Thus showing that you can run a campaign in June and still go to IOWA.

The methodology is bad. It's picking up landline losers only. Adjust for that and Webb is competitive.

[lenny]

Good updated analysis, Ben.

I stand by SUSA polls. As they say, its all about the Benjamins for the Webb campain from now on.

[Hanover]

Anon 11:19:

I'd be interested in seeing your calculus for making Webb competitive in this poll, absent the "landline losers."

I presume by that you mean people who have only cell phones, and not land lines.

As you must know, as an obvious expert on weighting polls, those people who have cell phones but not land lines are overwhelmingly under the age of 28. Of that category, almost all are under 22.

Again, as an expert on polling data, you must also know that these people are just the same sort who don't vote in great numbers. In fact, that demographic has the worst track record in voting turnout.

Of course, you must be an expert in polling and demographics, otherwise you wouldn't have said what you said, right?

[Not Robert Roberts]

I agree with whoever it was who said that everyone should stop bitching about the poll and go work for Webb. In the Kaine campaign, polls were coming out all the time that showed Kaine down. I don't think that the Governor was even up until that last week. The Kaine campaign didn't bitch- just made them work that much harder. Be glad that the poll is this low right now, gives you some room to grow, motiviates the volunteers, and encourages Allen to be the self confident jackass that he's so good at being.

[Not Robert Roberts]

Hanover, I'd be interested to know the numbers re: those 18-22 with cell phones who don't have land lines and how many of those are college students. While the under 24 set might be the least likely to vote, college students are the most likely to vote. I would wager that college students are also more likely to have a cell phone and be without a land line.

Hanover, you sound like the expert. You sure cite a lot of stats. Got a citation, Mr. Calculus?

[Kilo]

Very funny! Survey USA has a 14 year track record guys. It is available online. Read it.
They poll the same way every time. I promise Ben has performed his homework about this poll when he updated his post. When Ben, who supports Jim Webb say's
"Time to deal with reality guys. Webb needs to overhaul his campaign immediately to stay competitive."
But hey! Dont believe him. Webb is doing fine! Keep doing what your doing!

[GOPHokie]

NRR, college students have terrible voting turnout too.
They are less likely sometimes b/c they dont want to fool with doing an absentee ballot.

[Too Conservative]

Ben who do you support??

...in any race?

It's June, and few people aside from us are really paying all that much attention to the race yet. At this stage the poll is more a referendum on Allen than anything having to do with Webb's performance.

Also, the linked poll has only 3% undecided here. I'd hazard that SurveyUSA's pushing respondents to declare for a candidate, and many have gone to the person with name recognition. Not a surprise at this stage. The 37% for Webb is likely pretty hard support in that either they like him, or don't like Allen. The Allen support certainly has a component of 'true believers' as well, but we don't have any idea how big it is relative to his overall support. There's plenty of room for movement, with most all of it going from Allen to Webb. This'll tighten up.

[not gretchen bulova]

Voters 18-22 will make up about 1.5% of voter turnout in November. Of those, 33% have cell phones as their primary phone.

That means about .5% of the population is excluded frm the survey. Not a huge deal.

[UVA08]

Can someone post a link to the crosstabs? I cant find them on the site.

[anon factor]

This poll is bogus because it does not show my candidate winning.

[ZB]

NLS is right "Survey USA nailed the Governors race last fall." Of course, they nailed it with their poll taken 11/5/05 - 11/7/05 after people had been flooded with ads for both candidates, debates, articles, etc. I seem to recall that every poll showed a large lead for Kilgore at this point last year.

These polls are snapshots of a moment--nothing more. We'll see where things are in October. If Survey USA has similar results come 11/05/07, Webb will be in for a long night.

[ZB]

Err 11/05/06

[Bwana]

Here we go...The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Methodology can always be picked apart; samples can always be questioned.

Those that like Allen will hail this as gospel...

Those that like Webb will denounce it as being inaccurate...

Pretty much the mirror reaction from the poll that showed Allen 46-41

Next will come the next finance reports...Allen will be ahead, which his supporters will say is proof of his strength. Webb will have gained ground, which his supporters will say is proof of a growing tsunami of support.

Same old dance, different names.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

[Virginian]

Kilgore never lead by 19 points. Also, Allen's name recognition is so high and his solids are so strong that you will not see a lot of decay in his numbers. The question is whether Webb can raise his numbers enough to at least make it competitive.

These constant comparisons to Kilgore-Kaine are just stupid. The Webb campaign set a measly $100k fundraising goal for June and they're barely gonna make it. This is not looking good.

[Virginian]

"Next will come the next finance reports...Allen will be ahead, which his supporters will say is proof of his strength. Webb will have gained ground, which his supporters will say is proof of a growing tsunami of support."

The next finance reports are going to show the gap getting increasingly bigger. Webb has not gained ground. If Webb isn't even able to raise $100k in the weeks after the primary he's in trouble. Allen raises $100k in an afternoon.

As for the polls, average all 3 (Rasmussen, Zogby and SUSA) and you have Allen in the 50s leading by over 10%. Not good.

[phriendlyjaime]

Well, Bush and DeLay call polss "a snaphot in time," and they are the smartest men I know, so...

;)

Morning Ben! :)

[phriendlyjaime]

OK, Virginian...calm it down.

I can't believe anyone is taking this "poll" seriously.

this poll is attacking webb's patriotism.

[Kilo]

Dont take it seriously phriendlyjaime. Please discredit the poll and the 14 year history of Survey USA picking winners. Again I stress Dont believe this poll or Ben! Stay the course!

[phriendlyjaime]

Bahahahahahaha!

Oh, Kilo...I'm not even going to dignify that with a response that includes anything else than laughing at you. You're so cute...

[Virginian]

phriendly - First, if you're going to "discredit" a poll please support your position. Just like you guys told Wadhams, saying so doesn't make it true.

That said, I actually gave everyone the benefit of the doubt and average all three polls. Allen leads 52%-40.5%. Coming off the primary with very little money in hand these averaged numbers have to be very discouraging to anyone whose followed electoral politics for more than the last few months.

Final point, if you're jump up and down and praise Zogby you don't get to ignore SUSA.

[Virginian]

phriendly - One more thing, and this is a serious question.

Could you please outline all of the problems with this poll? I am simply interested in your analysis since it's obvious you've done some. Also, please compare to Rasmussen and Zogby and tell me how you rank their accuracy and why. I look forward to your response. Thanks.

[phriendlyjaime]

Um...why do I need to retype what was typed at the top? SUDDENLY people (and I am not calling you out, or anyone, just making an observation here) here who claim to be of the Democratic mindset yet seem awfully Rep phriendly claim that "polls matter?"

Please.

It is a very skewed poll, the stats are poor (ask anyone who has taken a class on statistics) and it is way too early. I just think if people are worried, then get out and do something to get Webb some recognition. To bite fingernails over some poll on the net just seems like a waste of precious time.

[Virginian]

phriendly - Actually, I was a political science major with a focus on electoral politics and political statistics (mainly focused on presidential elections in the 20th century). That's why I was interested in your take.

This "poll" seems to have a very sound methodology to me. You can absolutely question the value of polls 4 months out (you and I may agree here) but that doesn't discredit the poll.

If you typed your thoughts above, I apologize, I probably missed them.

Zogby methodology:
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-elections06-meth.html

SurveyUSA methodology:
http://surveyusa.com/methodology.html

At least SUSA uses random sampling - Zogby calls people who WANT to be polled because they signed up to participate in polls on a web site. How on earth could that kind of a sample not favor Webb?

[phriendlyjaime]

Nope, no need to apologize at all, and I definitely did not mean to imply that you don't know what you are talking about in this context, or any others. I just don't want to get into this polling frenzy. SUSA says this, and while the polls DO NOT LOOK GOOD FOR WEBB NOW, I think we need to remember that every other poll taken nationally asking people whether they will vote Dem or Rep next November leads strongly dem. Virginians still don't know Webb's name, and we have no idea how the question to everyone polled was asked. That's all.

[Wants to Be for Webb]

Webb still won't get on the phone to raise money. That means Allen will continue to flood the airwaves and the mailboxes with positives. Look for him to start "definining" Webb soon by going VERY negative. And if Webb doesn't have cash in the bank, he won't be able to counter. Problem isn't the campaign. It's the damn candidate.

[UVA08]

Link for Crosstabs from SurveyUSA anyone? I just want to see it. I am wondering why there are such variations in the recent polls. Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, and Zogby are all over the place. The numbers in SurveyUSA do appear to match their approval-disapproval ratings of Allen.

[phriendlyjaime]

I wouldn't say the problem is the candidate if you are basing the problem on $$. I think the problem is the way elections are run, but that is neither here nor there.

[Kilo]

http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/Link.asp?L=196941
Crosstabs

[Analyst]

Ben -- Back when you were involved in drafting Webb and dissing Miller, was it the assumption that the netroots would produce the money for Webb, or that a first-time candidate would produce a world-class campaign, or that the DSCC would step in and fund it and run it?

When George decided to run for President, did he think he wouldn't get a challenge from a fiesty underdog populist campaign for his "safe" Senate seat or that he could continue to take fat cat "bribes" with out having to answer for it?

[Virginian]

phriendly - You hit on the most worrisome part. Voters, including those in VA, more and more say they will vote for Democrats but when faced with an actual option they're picking Allen. The numbers you refer to cut against Webb, not for him.

The national environment can hardly get better for Webb (in fact recent polls show Bush up about 5% in approval) but he's still this far behind. Hard to imagine what would get him back into it.

As for SUSA, this poll is not way out of whack with the approval/disapprove. As long as those number, taken contemporaneous, are within about 7% they pass muster. In this case, they're close and one set of numbers is old.

[phriendlyjaime]

I only saw Bush with a 1 point bump from last week. 5%? Really?

[notroberthurt]

Anyone find some of the cross tabs strange? Am I reading correctly that "Other" is drawing 2 and 3% in some categories? As there are no other candidates on the ballot, that seems strange. Perhaps we'll see a lot of write-ins?

[Virginian]

phriendly - Sorry, it was actually 4% (not 5%). I'm referring to the Hotline. Here are 2 sections that don't look good.

This month's Hotline/Diageo poll shows Pres. Bush with a 41% approval rating, up from 37% last month. 56% currently disapprove. Also, 30% see the U.S. as going in the right direction, while 60% say the country's on the wrong track. Meanwhile, 53% say their area is on the right track, while 36% see it in the wrong direction.

The first is obviously important. Any uptick for Bush is an uptick for Allen.

The second part is more important. It shows that local feelings don't match national perception. Americans perceive the nation to be going in the wrong direction but their own little worlds to be going in the right direction. This subtle distinction could be very important for incumbents this year.

[Virginian]

notroberthurt - The "other" response was due to the language of the question. People were given options of specific candidates, other or undecided. The single digits giving "other" is completely expected.

I thought Allen got the single digit from the people.

[Fan of Integrity]

This is the best GOP blog ever!

[not gretchen bulova]

ha Fan. NLS is trying to give objective analysis, not every site can revolve around hidng bad news for Democrats like RK does.

[Not Huey Long]

Republicans are desperate for good news. I believe this is evidenced by the fervor of responses in this thread.

Hey, Bulova, you better watch it.

[Anonymous]

---------------------------
Webb needs to overhaul his campaign immediately to more effectively stroke Tribbett's ego. More on this tomorrow.
----------------------------

Fixed your post.

[phriendlyjaime]

I think the poll has been posted on RK, no?

[not gretchen bulova]

I haven't seen it Jaime.

[Leopold Strabismus]

Let's face it...this is beginning to feel like third tier race.

Webb is going to start looking more and more like a disgruntled ex-Marine Republican hack who was increasingly shunned within Republican circles and decided to get revenge by becoming a Nancy Pelosi cross-dresser.

Chesty Puller would piss on the person who aligned with Ted Kennedy.

And, Chesty Puller was a helluva good marine. Webb ain't.

[SouthernPol]

It's no surprise these numbers are where they are at the moment.

The Webb campaign is going down hard unless corrective action is taken immediately!

[Willie P.]

It's gonna take money...we need to start shaking the trees.

[Fan of Integrity]

As a Marine, Webb is a hero Leopold. Even LaCivita knows not to fuck with that.

Ajacied

In response to your African American comments above....it is more than plausible that Allen will do well in the black community because he has already done so in his earlier statewide elections.

Plus, Webb didn't exactly have a stellar performance with blacks himself. The jew baiting prank didn't help me much either.

[Leopold Strabismus]

Even Marines make mistakes, Fan of Integrity.

And, even Marines are not above jumping all over the asses of other Marines who go soft.

Frankly, there are a whole batch of current and former Marines who were very saddened to learn of James Webb's cross-dressing.

Say it ain't so, Jim?

Fan, when Marines feel betrayed by one of their own, they get pissed off.

[Lewis Armistead]

I really wonder how long it will take Mudcat to have his meltdown?

This picture and article say it all...

http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3050

Here's the one statement that really sticks out from this interview:"
For [Miller] to accuse of us of anti-Semitism, I take it personal...and I am offended."

Well, Dave, how in the hell do you think that Mr. Miller felt when he saw the cartoon with the hook nose depiction? Don't you think he took it personally.

He did and rightly so.

What a hypocrite!

Here's the bottom-line about Saunders, he is all bluster. He's a bully. He cusses. He threatens. He talks loud and never lets anyone else get a word in edgewise.

But, in the end, bullies always get exposed for being the little people that they really are.

Now that he is going against some seasoned operatives, he'll be stuck with his dick in his hand and wondering what in the hell just happened.

That's the deal.....

[Fan of Integrity]

OK Lewis. Just push the button for Allen instead of Webb.

But if you really feel that bullies get exposed for being the little people that they are, then we are in for some great entertainment when Wadhams gets stuck with his little dick in his hand and we all get to watch.

[Lewis Armistead]

"Fan of Integrity at 9:07pm"

Here's a hint about posting. It's only funny when you use your own metaphor. Quit copying from me.

[Wholesale Sexy Lingerie]

A thousand-li journey is started by taking the first step