George Allen 56%
Jim Webb 37%
UPDATE: After looking at the crosstabs, this poll looks like it could be on target.
First of all, Survey USA nailed the Governors race last fall.
Compare this poll to that one.
2005's poll showed 39% of Virginians considered themselves Republicans, 34% Democrats and the rest Independents.
This poll shows 44% Republicans (+5%), 32% Democrats (-2%) and the rest Independents.
Welcome to Virginia.
In places like Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Norfolk, and other parts of Hampton Roads more conservative leaning military voters do not vote in large numbers in state elections, but do in federal elections. Guess what party they are?
In Metro-Richmond, the electorate also changes to include a larger chunk of voters. State workers who can lean Democratic and keep Democrats close in Metro Richmond state elections are dwarfed by their conservative neighbors in the Richmond suburbs.
Last year's poll showed 83% white, 13% black. This poll is 78% white, 14% black. Nothing for Democrats to complain about there.
Last years poll was 51% women, now this poll is 52% men. Democrats could complain if Webb lead among women, but he doesn't lead among either. Even if you moved the numbers to 51% women, Webb would gain 13 points margin among 3% of the population. Move that 3% both ways (women +3, men -3) and that movement means 0.13x 6% or 0.78% poll movement. Rounded UP- adjusting the gender number only moves the race ONE point overall to an EIGHTEEN point Webb deficit.
Time to deal with reality guys. Webb needs to overhaul his campaign immediately to stay competitive. More on this tomorrow.