George Allen and Fairfax County

One of the reasons this Senate race is so competitive is the political climate in Northern Virginia.

In 2000 George W. Bush carried Fairfax by 6,081 votes.  On the same ballot Chuck Robb beat George Allen by 16,584 votes in Fairfax.

That's a 22,665 vote margin that voted for George W. Bush yet voted against George Allen.

Since then the margin has increased every election for Democrats.

Mark Warner wins Fairfax by 26,013

John Kerry wins Fairfax by 34,041

Tim Kaine wins Fairfax by 61,497

One thing about Fairfax is that federal events (i.e. the Presidents approval rating) impact elections here in a major fashion.  Since Kaine's win the President's approval rating has fallen another few points.

With the higher turnout in federal elections, one friend at the DSCC whispered a number to me that would have been unthinkable a short time ago.  "If all goes right, and the President drops about five more points, and we could be seeing a 100,000 vote Webb margin out of Fairfax County".

That would do it. 

Of course, if the President goes up a few more points, Webb's margin in Fairfax would disappear quickly and George Allen would be headed for Iowa.

Comments

[James Young]

Interesting analysis, Ben, but did you consider the difference in the vote totals. In my experience, there is usually a substantial discrepancy between the total number voting between offices.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Yes, but not that year. The difference is less than 1% (413,000 voted for Pres, 410,000 for Senate)

[Insider]

The question is "Will Fairfax turnout to vote for Webb?"

[Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr.]

Insider - I think you got a preview of NOVA turnout for Webb about a week ago when NOVA turnout was double the rest of the state.

If Iraq is going bad in the fall, we'll be talking about Sen. Webb, Cong. Kellam, Cong. Feder & Cong. Hurst.

If Iraq is going great, much less is certain.

Where is Yoda when we need him? He can look to the future, but then again The Dark Side (Allen) makes it very hard to see....

George Allen's mistake was not paying attention to Fairfax after he saw the 2000 numbers. If he was a little more like John Warner, he'd be fine right now.

[Danny Plaugher]

My question is this, what is 100K in Fairfax if the African-American population stays home on election day because they have two bad choices. If Webb doesn't work on his base some he is going to pull in Robb numbers.

[not gretchen bulova]

People talk about the soft AA base for Webb which may be accurate, but it's not like they turned out in droves for Miller. AA's voted for Miller, but not in any decent number. I don't know if Webb's AA problem is a dislike or more or an ambivalence.

[GOPHokie]

The AA population never turns out super high, but I am hard pressed to believe they will have any different turnout this year than any other.
I also doubt they will see any major change in margins either.

[nOT eRIK kANTOR]

Not Harry---you forgot Congressman Nachman!!!!
JIM JIM JIM JIM!!!!!!!!!!!

[novamiddleman]

Hold up Kilgore won Fairfax by 60,000 with a lukewarm candidate in Kilgore and Kaine pandering directly to suburban voters.

Allen is a better politican with more $$$ and he is a Virginia institution.

I think this race will be fun and interesting to watch but 100,000k margin in Fairfax thats a bit of a pipe dream. If you guys get there though you will propably win :)

[novamiddleman]

ugh first Kilgore should be Kaine

[JW]

Since when is George Allen an institution in VA. Hecame here from CA with his football coach Dad, avoided Vietnam with a bogus knee that did't prevent him from playing football at UVA. As a Senator he is an embarassment to us all and a Bush clone. Not a Virginian or a VA institution.

[novamiddleman]

Delegate 83-91
House 91-93
Governor 93-97
Senate 2000-present

20+ years in Virginia politics that qualifies. Granted the transient nature of the NoVA area somewhat dilutes this effect but the overall name recongition/incumbency is going to be very formidable to overcome

[SouthernPol]

I don't see Webb knocking down 100,000 votes out of Fairfax County no matter what happens.

NOVA Middleman,

Allen's a Southern Cal, fake drawl, faux bubba, bullshit artist and we can't send him home too soon.

[Yoda]

This blog a long time have I watched. Always to the future it looks. Scandals. Heh. Gossip. Heh. A Jedi craves not these things. You are reckless.

[Yoda]

A great warrior Webb is? Wars not make one great.

Strong the right is. Much fear I sense. Clouds everything, this fear does. Impossible to see the future is.

Strong is Allen. Mind what you have learned. Save us it can.

[Mason Conservative]

The real problem in NoVa for the GOP isn't Fairfax--although that hurts bad. Its when the GOP lose Loudoun or Prince William that things go all to hell. I think Kilgore could have held off Kaine if he had done a little better in Fairfax and had not lost Loudoun! Republicans can win while losing Fairfax, they just can't get their asses kicked like Kilgore did.

[novamiddleman]

First a little history rehash Kaine won the burbs by directly appealing to them with his traffic/growth adds and riding on Warners coattails and we all know about Kilgroe and his death penalty adds.

Moving into 2006 we have two candidates on the dem side Hurst/Federa that are very much in the progressive/populist camp (along with Webb).
You guys have done a good job in selecting moderate delegate candidates but
IMHO the dems have pushed too far to the left with these two. Remember we are still talking about purple areas for the most part in the 10th and 11th.

P.S. watching World Cup Mexico vs Argentina on Univision its great stuff :)