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Lowell

My prediction for several weeks now has been a 58%-42% victory for Webb, same as in the St. Patrick's Day straw poll. Looks like you're saying about the same thing, which is good since you're "99.5% accurate." Ha.

lenny

If Webb can hold his own in NoVa, he would win.

My prediction:

Miller 49%
Webb 51%

My wife's prediction:

Webb 54%
Miller 46

Dannyboy

My prediction:

Miller: 52%
Webb: 48%

What can I say, the mail has probably helped A LOT. I think Miller will win, and Allen will beat him by 10% in November.

I hope to God Almighty that I'm wrong.

Thomas Paine Patriot

Do you WebbLows really think that one Webb mailing to who knows how small a universe is going to have any signficant impact on the Senate primary?

Miller is hammering the fact that Webb is a Republican and hanging Webb on his own words in numerous mass mailings across the state and in very well-produced TV commercials in markets across the state.

One Webb mailing is like a one single piece of fly shit in a pile of horse manure.

Miller's mailings and TV commercials are very effective because they use Webb's own words and they provide citations from where they came from. You can scream negative all you want, but it falls on deaf ears because the Miller campaign is using the time-honored and respected tactic of hanging a candidate by his own words.

Also, you scream so loud and you are so vicious that no one hears you cry "negative."

Webb's piece is a boring and hastily put together piece that has little value to the voter because it doesn't say why Webb said all those awful things about women, pro-choice groups, and guns.

Webb's piece doesn't explain why he still loves Ronald Reagan and changed parties, but not his positions on issues.

I'll bet the only people who have polls on this race are the Miller campaign because they are running a professional campaign with very competent staff and they are well-funded.

I, for one, am proud to see that Harris Miller is willing to put some of his own money into the campaign. That is a strong personal commitment.

Commissar Lowell Feld of Pravda (former RK) brays that Webb only LENT himself money for his campaign, while Miller donated money to his. Which commitment looks stronger to the voter?

Webb is a millionaire. He can afford it. But it's too late now.

You guys can make up all the numbers you want. Ben, at least, knows it is a crap shoot. Commissar Lowell Feld is too blinded by his adoration and love for Webb to have any objective opinion about the numbers.

One more question: Does the Webb mailing have a union bug on it? I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't since some other Webb literature and banners were non-union printed and have no bug.

Some labor supporters you WebbLovers are!

Not Larry Sabato

Thomas Paine Patriot- I have a feeling if I knew who you were, I would find out we have been fighting for a long time. That having been said, I love your style and hope you stick around blogging after June 13th. I'm very entertained.

Virginia Centrist

NLS:

I agree. I used to hate this guy, but now I think I like him!

Not Larry Sabato

After June 13th I may even start using Lowell's nickname :)

Marcey Hunter

Yes there is a Union bug.

DukieDem

I really look forward to when TPP is on our side and not bashing Webb; I'd love to see him turn his tactics against Allen. Until then I find him a thorn and hope he's wrong. GO WEBB!!!

Thomas Paine Patriot

NLS,

I told you before. I think you are a mean sonofabitch.. or did I call you a two-faced punk? I can't remember.

However, unlike Commissar Lowell Feld at Pravda (formerly RK), you do not ban those who have different opinions from your blog. You have been willing to take the heat and, for that, I salute you.

Remember, that Commissar Lowell Feld banned me from Pravda (former known as RK) despite the fact that 75 percent of his merry band of Webb-Loving bloggers voted to keep me.

That is the lowest of the low from someone who expects people to believe him about anything.

Commissar Feld deserves to be punished for his totalitarian actions. He is not a Democrat. He is not a Marxist. He is not even a Communist. He is a Stalinist!

So, please, let's give the Commissar and his webbsite the name it deserves.

Let's tell the truth for once here in the blogosphere...

Arturo

TPP is really hurt by the fact that he was banned from a blog. He repeats himself over and over and over again. Get over it already!

lenny

"Commissar Feld deserves to be punished for his totalitarian actions" LMAO.


TPP, did they grow you on a tree? Just asking...

Don't you get tired of hearing your screeching voice all the time TPP? sheez

Kinsey

Ben, what were your predictions for last year's primaries? I'm too lazy to hunt through the archives.

If you babies want to see what real political campaigns are like - check this story about CA - 50. It makes the Webb-Niller primary look like the kids on Romper Room singing Kumbaya.

This is what nasty campaigning looks like:

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Mud_flies_in_California_primaries_but_0605.html

Harkov311

Just loked at all my Webb stuff, and it has union bugs.

Sorry Tom

By the way - Dannyboy promised us Webb would run the most innovative campaign we have ever seen.

I guess that type of campaign is at the same place as my flying car.

The Ghost of Tom Joad

TPP- start your own blog and you can say whatever, whenever you want.

Tom Joad - TPP has a right to say whatever Ben lets him say. In fact, he has the same rights as you.

I don't even agree with how TPP says most of what he does, but no one named you "chief of police" for the NLS website.

In fact, if you want to shut up other commenters, why don't you start your own blog?

Marcey Hunter

I think TPP is Harris Miller.

Dannyboy

Anon 9:14-

Nobody's been more disappointed than me, dude. I really thought we would get a fantastic campaign. I think the problem is that the campaign got started late. If Webb wins the GE, maybe he can pull it all together.

Dannyboy - I sympathize with you, really. I cannot count how many times I have been disapointed by the quality and quantity of effort a candidate has put out.

If there is one thing I have learned it is this: Candidates are who they are. You cannot drag them across them across the finish line, they do the best work and we have a tiny part.

I remember with John Kerry, I said "Why can't he be more exciting, why can't he just connect more?" Someone else said to me "He's been this way for 30 years, why should he change just because he's running for president?"

It's the same way with Webb, my fear is he wins the nomination, and he is still a lackluster campaigner. We have a chance to beat Allen and it looks like it comes down to a flawed candidate (Miller) who run a great campaign and will fight tooth and nail to beat Allen vs. a candidate who cannot even begin to understand what it is like to run for U.S. Senate yet has a better profile.

How can anyone be so sure about either one.

Not Guy Incognito

I think you're a little high Ben (well, your percentages at least).

Demo

I for one thank TPP for being on here. I think ___ 9:58 is right, Miller works harder. I think the most telling thing writen about Webb in a recent article was that he doesn't know how to campaign. It says he walked down the middle of a street during a recent parade instead of waving or shaking hands with voters. Or how about the fact that Miller shakes hands at events while Webb could be best described as a "wall flower" or at the very least as pompous/arrogant.

Virginia Liberal

Is Riley really a slut?

Dannyboy

I believe somebody said this about our two Democratic Candidates (can't remember who):

Harris Miller: Worst Candidate Ever
Jim Webb: Worse Campaign Ever

Who knows. I'm hoping that Webb wins this primary and can pull it together for this fall.

Labor+Webb=Victory

That's right, Miller Shrillers: keep up the revisionism and attacks on Jim's strengths. Miller funds Republicans and uses their tactics. The Viet Cong was a lot tougher than you clowns.

Virginia Centrist

You can change a campaign, but you can't change a candidate.

At the end of the day, Harris Miller is still Harris Miller.

Vivian J. Paige

From all that I've seen and heard, I think the result will be 51-49 Miller.

Dannyboy

Good point, VC. That's why I'm hoping Webb wins this thing.

Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr.

Seems to me that high turnout could potentially mean high Republican participation. At least in the 8th, they can't participate in the D primary, but otherwise, why wouldn't high turnout possibly mean high R votes for Miller?

I dunno NLS. High turnout in primaries can mean different things although it usally means inspired good guys, not bad ones (although I bet Jesse Jackson would disagree (didn't he win the Dem Primary in 1988?)).

As for Tom Paine, Verizon.com says there's a Thomas E. Paine in Fredericksburg..... Maybe he (or she) is listed?

JPTERP

Webb 67%
Miller 33%

My inside sources are telling me that the recent "latte drinking, Opera lover with no national appeal" revelations have been a tremendous drag on Miller's numbers.

To counter said perception, Miller will be unveiling endorsements Thursday on MSNBC's Hardball from Kenny Rogers, Bill Ray Cyrus, and Wayne Newton.

The real question--can celebrity endorsements from nationally known music entertainers turn the tide in VA in 2006?

This truly has been a strange primary . . .

not Xenu

20% Harris Miller
20% Jim Webb
60% Lowell Feld (write-in)

Webb 70%, Tribett 17%, Miller 12%, Marshall 1%.

Joe in Tabb

Harris Miller won the relatively small York County Democratic Staw poll.

Statewide Prediction:
HARRIS MILLER 53%
Jim Webb 47%

What matter is this: Democrats in Virginia want to beat the Republicans with a Democrat not a Reganite

Chris

Miller's mail is going to keep the race from being a total Webb blowout. However, Webb will still win by a wide margin. I say he gets at least 60% statewide and 65% in Fairfax County.

LAS

TTP, you have got to get over this strange obsession with Lowell. It's kind of creepy.

Seriously, you sound like a scorned lover.

As for predictions, I wouldn't dare. You guys are just asking for it, IMHO.

Harkov311

Joe in Tabb: And if the snooty, NoVA-as-hell Miller had a snowball's chance in hell of beating Allen, that would mean something.

Besides, do you really think he's still a Republican? Why not just endorse Allen then?

Virginia Centrist

Harkov311:

I'm not sure, but I think you'll find the answer to your question over at Pravda (formerly known as Raising Kaine).

charles R.

I thought the 50th in california was going to be close, because independents (who are republicans, and running in the primary at the same time for the same seat in the general election in the fall) would syphon votes from the republican.

But since the tape was revealed of the democrat telling illegal immigrants they could work for her campaign (she also said they could vote for her, but claims she mis-spoke), given that the republican was already running on the illegal immigrant issue, I think that will put the republican over the top.


I have no idea who will win the democrat primary. But if only 100,000 people show up to pick, that would suggest that neither candidate really excites anybody, or at least say that a vast majority of democrats don't care WHO their candidate is -- neither of which seems like a good thing, no matter who wins.

I mean, I thought NLS had more READERS than that :->

Thomas Paine Patriot

LAS,

I can't be Lowell's scorned lover. Commissar Lowell is in love with Jim Webb.

And Marcey Hunter,

Sorry to disappoint you. I am not Harris Miller. I am actually Jim Webb having fun in my off hours.

I know I should be campaigning, but I am having much more fun trashing Lowell for banning me from his blog Pravda (formerly known as RK) DESPITE THE FACT THAT 72 PERCENT OF HIS BLOGGERS VOTED AGAINST BANNING ME.

Campaigning is not for me. I would rather endorse Republicans, keep women out of sensitive positions in the military, tell my opponent to shut up in front of a gaggle of real reporters, and drive around in my cool camouflage Jeep...

Thomas Paine Patriot

I predict the following:

Miller - 57%
Webb --- 43%

Lowell - overall loser

Thomas Paine Patriot

One more thing: Arturo, you no longer exist.

You are a moron for saying you will not vote for the Democratic nominee, whomever it is.

Go crawl in a hole somewhere after Miller wins the primary.

If your opponent is the worst candidate ever in Virginia, then you, Arturo, are the worst blogger and worst voter in the whole wide world.

(Notice I didn't call you a Democrat...)

You need to read my pamphlet "Common Sense."

Charles

Hey Ben, is this how you maintain your near-perfect accuracy, with predictions like this:

The primary seems to be getting closer

cause, gosh-darn-it, you are right, it isn't getting farther away..... :->

I love how the Webb bloggers are already making excuses for a Miller victory. "He has gained by reducing turnout with negative tactics." Let's see---by Miller sending mail and making phonecalls, people are less likely to vote? Don't think so.

UVA08

If people like Riley are defending Miller there is no doubt in my mind who I will vote for on June 13th. Miller supporters, doesn't it say something when Republicans are defending your candidate???

The Ghost of Tom Joad

Never said I wanted TPP to "shut up". I enjoy his rants. I think they could make a good site. He was complaining about being repressed. I gave him a solution. What's so hard to understand about that.

Not Larry Sabato

Anon803- Everyone knows a negative campaign never increases turnout. They are effective by driving down your opponent's supporters. That's why people do it when they are behind.

Fan of Integrity

And they do it when they have zero positives of their own to focus on

Webb Defeats Allen

What TPP fails to understand is the simple fact that Harris Miller is unelectable in Virginia. Sure, he can play "I'm a Democrat" for a couple of weeks, even though his policies and record show him to be far outside of the Democratic mainstream: Iraq? Bush Tax Cuts? Outsourcing?

Harris Miller's actual positions are repugnant to Democrats, that's why he's playing the "You're no Democrat" card. It's a loser's card and that's a shame.

When Webb defeats Miller in this primary, Miller will have aired all the dirty laundry there is, and Allen will have to depend on Virginia's (minority) hatred of gays and blacks, because his record won't hold up.

Miller has played a strong game, but that's just made the Webb campaign stronger, and well fortified to take on the challenge of defeating George Allen.

Ultimately, it's simple, if Democrats want to play litmus test politics and send a status-quo lobbyist up against George Allen, they don't deserve to win this seat. Miller won't get 40% of the vote statewide in the General election.

I think Virginia Democrats are smarter than this, and smarter than Harris Miller's negative campaign. Virginia Democrats know that the only way to DEFEAT GEORGE ALLEN is to send a fighter, a statesman, a champion, a hero to challenge Virginia's fake cowboy.

There's ultimately even more to it. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine have extended this party and have brought voters over in areas that wouldn't have considered voting for Democrats just a few years ago. If that trend is going to continue, we need new blood in the Democratic party. Jim Webb is that new blood, he speaks of the future of this nation by connecting with the critical traditions of the Democratic party that built it. He, along with a majority of Virgininans lauds Ronald Reagan on principle. He, along with a majority of Virginians supports the rights of pregnant women and their doctors on principle. He along with a majority of Virginians supports gay rights on principle. He along with a majority of Virginians supports the 2nd Amendment on principle. He, along with a majority of Virginians knows that Iraq is a debacle, but that leaving without a plan is as dangerous as it was to go in with a plan. All of these things set him apart from Harris Miller.

He, along with a majority of Virginians also believes in the separation of church and state. He, along with a majority of Virginians takes pride in Southern heritage without pandering or hatred. These issues separate him from George Allen, and show the pathway to the new Democratic resurgence in the South, in Rural America, across Virginia and across the nation.

If there was ever a time for brave men and women to stand up in support of a new Democratic majority based on a united future rather than a divided past, it is now.

Leaders nationwide and across Virginia recognize that Jim Webb is the scion of the greatest traditions of the Democratic party. As Jim Webb rises, so rise those great traditions.

This isn't just a horserace between a lobbyist and a war hero, between a placeholder and a maveric, between a Virginian and a Pennsylvanian, this is a battle for the heart and soul of the party.

Will Democrats back the status quo that has failed to defend the American public from right-wing conservative extremism, or will Virginia Democrats lead the nation and show the way to a resurgent party nationwide and an America that leads the world by example?

On June 13, we'll find out. Support Jim Webb, support the future.

Southsider

I, like some above, have concerns about Webb's campaign. Those were confirmed by the Webb campaign's failure to meet its FEC filing deadline. That is an unbelievable rookie mistake. If this is what the campaign has to offer the general could get ugly.

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?_26039092766+0

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?C00420075

Virginia Centrist

Southsider -

Come on. Now you folks are spinning Miller as the electable candidate? Give me a break.

Webb has tremendous POTENTIAL.

Miller has none...

Southsider

VC - I'm not spinning anything. I just posted a couple links because they're disconcerting. Honestly, while I'm a tepid Miller supporter, I believe Webb is probably more electable. My only point is that the campaign needs to tighten up and get ready for the big time.

Virginia Centrist

Well in that case, I agree wholeheartedly.

I'm just waiting for Ben to put up the sirens on the FEC filing -- just like he would if it had been Miller who was late.

Not Larry Sabato

I just walked in the door, who is late?

Ingrid was late on the FEC pre-primary filing. See the links. Where's teh siren?

C'mon, Ben. Your credibility is on the line. At least 3 sirens. Maybe even a photoshop.

Southsider

This very well may turn into a minor failing without any penalty. However, the point isn't whether or not they failed on some technicality or remedied the situation; the point is that the campaign made the type of mistake it cannot make if it wants to beat an incumbent Senator. Webb may be more "electable" than Miller but I'm just concerned his own campaign (and lack of money) will stand in the way.

Is that the same kind of minor failing as the so-called "Pew" Miller poll allegations filed by a Webb supporter at FEC? Even if, doesn't it warrant the same attention on NLS? This is where the rubber meets the road on credibility.

Not Jack Herrity

Ben, a much better line to Riley would have been:

"I'm Not Larry Sabato. And you're not."

NJH

asmith

How many people were at that straw poll Joe? Was it about the same amount of people that were at the LG Primary poll?

Not Larry Sabato

1154 anon- you got it. Go have fun.

Chris

Southsider,

Clearly Webb's campaign needs, and will get some changes, after the Primary. Your concern about money is not warranted. There is no question that Webb will have far, far more money than Miller can ever raise in the General. That is unless he intends to spend his life savings on a futile attempt to beat Allen.

Way to stand up, Ben! Good for you. NLS just went up in my book.

James Young

With due respect to brother Jim, I would give you more credibility on this, Ben, simply because you're a Democrat commenting on the Democrat Primary. Jim is not.

My only doubts come from your status as mouthpie... er, codpie... er, cheerleader for the Webb campaign.

Mmmm. Cod Pie.

Mmmm. Cheerleader.

Fan of Integrity

Whatever happened to the lawsuit against Miller for that illegal poll?

Nice try MillerShillerites, but you're style of spin is so predictable and the same, that I could just swear you're one person. Maybe two. In any event - yawn.

"Anyone who has morphed from a Carter Democrat to a Reagan Republican to a Robb Democrat to an Allen-Bush Republican to a grunt in an army generaled by screamin' Howard Dean once again proves the adage: In politics there are no enemies, only shifting alliances."
--Richmond Times Dispatch on Jim Webb


Fauquier Dan

Webb 52.8%
Miller 47.2%

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