Not Larry Sabato

Car Tax

A recent debate has been going on between "Spank that Donkey" with Kenton and Jaded disagreeing with him on the car tax reimbursements.

Basically, the issue is this:  The General Assembly passed a new rule that makes anyone who pays their car tax late forfeit the 70% savings, and pay the amount in full.

As Spank That Donkey (STD) accurately points out- that will be poor families who couldn't afford the partial car tax to begin with.

I'm agreeing with STD on this.  Things like this cross the line from incompetent to plain mean. 

It's time to find a new tax (preferably on people that can afford it) to replace the remaining car tax revenue, and do away with the car tax, the 70% rebate, this stupid rule, and the bureaucrats who run the program.

Fairfax Survey

The Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce released a poll today.  Very interesting results.

Question 1 seems to indicate Gerry Connolly is in a boatload of trouble:

Pace of Growth and Development
Much Too Fast 42%
Little Too Fast 25%
  -67% Too Fast
About Right 29%
   -29% About Right
Too Slow 2%
   -2% Too Slow

Question 2 is what Gerry hopes will save him:

Growth in this region is inevitable and can not be stopped 57%
Growth in this region can be significantly slowed or stopped 37%

Very interesting.  Go check the whole thing out.

I'm Perplexed- Updated

Does anyone have a theory on why homosexual marriage is polling six points better than Jim Webb?

Mason Dixon
No- Amendment #1 38%
Jim Webb 32%

I would have guessed the opposite.

UPDATE- Interestingly enough while the undecided vote is much lower in the ballot question, the margins in the Senate race and the marriage amendment are very similar:

Richmond:  Yes by 28, Allen by 27
Lynchburg/Southside:  Yes by 22, Allen by 28
Northern Virginia:  No by 4, Webb by 6
Roanoke/Southwest:  Yes by 32, Allen by 22
Shenandoah/Piedmont:  Yes by 31, Allen by 31
Hampton Roads:  Yes by 21, Allen by 9

YES LEADS BY 18

MASON DIXON

Question Number 1 on the November ballot asks, “Shall Article One, the Bill of Rights, of the Constitution of Virginia be amended to state that only a union between one man and one woman may be a marriage valid or recognized by this Commonwealth and its political subdivisions?”

YES 56%
NO 38%

REGIONALS:
Richmond:                    61% YES, 33% NO
Roanoke/Southwest:     64% YES, 32% NO
Hampton Roads:           57% YES, 36% NO
Northern Virginia:          44% YES, 48% NO
Shenandoah/Piedmont:  63% YES, 32% NO
Lynchburg/Southside:     64% YES, 32% NO

DEMOCRATS:    27% YES, 63% NO
REPUBLICANS:  82% YES, 15% NO
INDEPENDENTS: 53% YES, 41% NO

Warner of the Week

Guest Column by Dannyboy

The Warner of the Week goes to the Phil Kellam Campaign.

Now, I know many bloggers, especially of the GOP variety, were
not-so-enthused by Phil's performance at the debate recently.  But that sure
hasn't slowed down his campaign.  The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has
updated his list of "House races most likely to change party control in the
November election."  And Kellam is now at number 19th.  Sure, it's an the
end of the list, but just being on that list is great news for the Kellam
team.  And more great news just recently.  In April, the Cook Political
Report said the 2nd was "likely" to stay red.  In May, Cook changed his
mind, and said that it was only "leaning" Republican.  Now, the race is one
of the few in which an incumbent Republican's chances to win are considered
to be a "toss-up."

According to analyst Amy Walter, "This is a treacherous political climate
for Republicans.  She cannot count on the president or the national party to
help her out. She is one of the few targeted GOP races in the country
without at least $1 million in the bank."

As a matter fact, Kellam is that far away from Thelma Drake as far as funds are concerned, and he solidly out-raised her last quarter.

This has been a good week for Kellam.  I feel the Warner is deserved.

Feel free to flame below.  Just to warn you, I'm starting to become immune
to it.

Senate Districts- Presidential Margin

Continuing our preview of 2007- here are the Virginia Senate Districts, and their margin in the Presidential Election

Hanger    + Bush 28,560
McDougle + Bush 27,767
Bell         + Bush 25,670
Watkins   + Bush 24,116
Stotsh     + Bush 23,965
Newman  + Bush 23,379
Potts       + Bush 22,569
Obenshain+ Bush 22,378
Wampler  + Bush 20,209
Norment   + Bush 20,063
Martin      + Bush 19,687
Houck       + Bush 18,418
Blevins     + Bush 18,365
Chichester+ Bush 17,877
Quayle      + Bush 17,240
Reynolds   + Bush 17,238
Hawkins    + Bush 16,989
Stolle        + Bush 14,569
Williams    + Bush 13,576
Wagner      + Bush 12,209
Colgan       + Bush 11,561
Ruff           + Bush 11,161
Herring      + Bush  8,827
Puckett      + Bush  7,933
Rerras        + Bush  5,438
Cuccinelli   + Bush  2,947
O'Brien       + Bush  1,498
Edwards     + Bush     551
Dev-Davis    +Kerry  2,932
Deeds          +Kerry  4,766
Puller          +Kerry  7,133
Howell         +Kerry  9,529
Saslaw         +Kerry 14,064
Lucas           +Kerry 16,214
Marsh          +Kerry  16,918
Locke          +Kerry  20,035
Miller          +Kerry  22,530
Ticer           +Kerry  25,913
Whipple       +Kerry  25,955
Lambert       +Kerry  29,131

One of the reasons I have always been critical of the House Democratic Caucus, is they never seem to understand which races they need to win to have a shot at the majority.  The Senate Democratic Caucus seems to have a better grasp of this.  This chart shows how important Mark Herring's victory was for Democrats- who need three more seats to tie, and four to take a majority.

African Americans

Undecided 45%
Jim Webb 39%
George Allen 16%

That's the #1 thing that needs to change if Webb wants to make this a serious race.

Weenie of the Week #30 for 2006

Guest Column by Dannyboy

Now, I really hate to give this Weenie, but I feel out of all the
nominations this week, this one really deserves it.  I've been holding out on this one for a while for my own personal bias, but I can't any longer.  The Weenie of the Week is the Jim Webb Campaign for continuously poor fundraising (Allen has him beat at 16-1 odds, and no candidate, no matter how good, can win like that) and very odd press releases.  Especially these damn press releases.  Read this one:

Now, I understand the point the Webb Campaign is trying to make.  I think
it's a good point.  But I can barely read the damn thing.  I found it
annoying, and only read through the entire thing because if I was going to
give the Webb Campaign this award, I wanted to see what so many people were complaining about.  I actually agree, they're right to complain about this one.  It's a Press Release, and it's primary focus is to provide information.  It can't do that if reading it is practically painful.

Webb appears to be the type of candidate that can bring George Allen down.  But can the campaign equal the candidate?  Well, Webb's got at least a month until people really start to pay attention to this campaign.  Let's see if the campaign can turn it around: raise some cash, start campaigning like they can win this race, and learn just exactly what Craney Island is.  Don't get me wrong, I respect it when somebody admits that they don't know an answer.  But that's one that should be known if you're a serious candidate.

All of these can't possibly be helping those Mason-Dixon findings.

To quote NJH:
"Seriously, if you run for political office in Virginia you should know where or what Craney Island is. In addition, you should know when a cartoon isn't funny and when a Star Wars reference will flop. These guys are not learning from their mistakes."

They still have time to learn.  Let's not get ahead of ourselves: the campaign may have been going on for months in the blogosphere. but to many outside of it, it hasn't even started yet.  The Webb Campaign has plenty of time to turn this around.  The question is...will they?

ALLEN LEADS BY 16- UPDATE

MASON DIXON

ALLEN 48
WEBB 32

Story Embargoed until Sunday in newspapers- ***NLS EXCLUSIVE***

Big lead for Allen- but why after 10 years as a statewide elected official (1994-1998 Governor, 2000-2006 U.S. Senate) can he still not poll 50% of Virginians?!?!?

8 p.m. Saturday Update:  Poll should be out in four hours on the major media sites.  I will link when I see some of the stories up.

UPDATE #2- Daily Progress, Virginia Pilot

Green and Black

Via Loudoun Insider, I see that Dick Black is planning his return to elected politics.  I'm guessing that he is eyeing his former seat in the House of Delegates, now held by David Poisson which totally overlaps with the Senate District held by Mark Herring, where Darrell Green is planning a challenge.

Herring-Poisson vs. Green-Black under the shadow of Chairman Scott York's re-election campaign, while the unpopular GOP majority on the Loudoun Board seeks re-election- all on one ballot!  Loudoun is going to be quite entertaining in 2007.