« Weenie of the Week #30 for 2006 |
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Undecided 45%Jim Webb 39%George Allen 16%That's the #1 thing that needs to change if Webb wants to make this a serious race.
July 30, 2006 | Permalink
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George Allen WILL not get more than 7-8% of the African American vote. George Bush has a 2% approval rating among African Americans and i cant imagine someone disapproving of George Bush and then voting for George Allen.
The question for Webb is turnout among African Americans.
James E. Martin |
July 30, 2006 at 12:04 PM
I'm from Western PA, visiting Northern VA for a wedding. In PA, there are 20 TV ads daily, 12-15 are Casey, the rest are Santorum. Casey is winning the polls because he has been in the MSM, TV Ads, and radio spots for two months already.
Here in VA? Nothing from Webb, right? A shame, a real shame.
I disagree with you because M-D's crosstabs are famous for being above the margin of error. Therefore, you must look at several crosstabs to uncover Allen's weakness(es).
Allen leads GOP voters by a large margin: 81 to 4, with 15 undecided.
Allen leads independents by a predictable margin: 44 to 33, with 23 undecided.
Allen leads white voters by a comfortable margin: 54 to 31, with 15 undecided.
Allen's job approval is (essentially) 58 to 39, with 3 undecided.
Finally, Webb leads Dem. voters with an odd margin: 67 to 10, with 23 undecided.
My analysis: Allen has few weaknesses against Webb at this time.
33% of Dems do not approve or are undecided on Webb!
19% of GOPers do not approve or are undecided on Allen!
Those two stats are very telling of how campaigns are run. How can Webb attract AA and independent voters when he cannot even solidify his base?
When only two-thirds of Webb's base is with him with just 100 days before the election, that spells absolute panic.
Webb must bring all Dems in line and fight for him by showing that he can successfully raise money on his own and effectively lead a clearly disorganized campaign staff. Otherwise, the race will never get close. Why? Because I imagine Allen will be spending $2 or $3 million in August alone to define Webb and make the race about Allen vs. Webb, and not about Bush. Allen will now spend a great deal of time going after the undecided independent and white voters, and if he gets lucky with Webb's continued inaction, he will then go after black voters and some of those undecided Dem. voters.
I regret to predict a 58-40-2 vote in favor of Allen if Allen runs ads in August and Webb remains relatively silent until September.
Penn Dem w/ hangover |
July 30, 2006 at 12:14 PM
Let me ask you VA dems to ask yourselves this:
Why does Webb, your candidate, only have 67% of the Dems approval? Why only two-thirds? Why are one-third not on the wagon, and with the likes of Allen, why are 10% not voting for Webb?
Your primary was lame compared to ours, and not many voted. It was also in early June, right? Two months ago. I cannot believe it is because of that low-turnout primary.
I wonder if Webb's approval ratings has to do with being a self-described 'Ray-gun Democrat'. That certainly has not helped, right? Not even with GOP voters crossing over (only 4% of GOPers are not voting for Allen).
What is going on there? Can your state Dem. leaders jump in to rally the troops? Why isn't your Governor campaigning with Webb, going door-to-door during canvass events, etc? What about Mark Warner? What about Doug Wilder (a hero of mine)? Wilder is still Mayor of Richmond, right?
Are some Dems just not interested in Webb? Has Webb burned some bridges (not an insult, that just sometimes happens in heated races)? Are Webb's campaign staffers not team-players with state and local Dem officials? Are some state and local Dem leaders angry that Webb is running as a Dem?
Really, the numbers really do not add up. What is going on, I am interested. Thanks.
Penn Dem w/ hangover |
July 30, 2006 at 12:41 PM
Independents are Webb's base. Webb needs to reach out to moderate Republicans. Hopefully the often lost "liberals" will see the light. Webb can't waste time targeting them; either they will vote for Webb or stay home. If they stay home, then they are voting for Allen. Webb can impress the so called "liberals" by successfully attacking Allen.
July 30, 2006 at 12:43 PM
That's a scarry thought. Summing up, "fine, let the Dems. who don't like Webb just stay at home, etc."
That is why Democrats lose elections. Casey is pro-life, but every effort is being made to get ALL dems. out to vote against Santorum.
If you think the independents are the key, then I disagree. You see, if I were an independent and I saw one-third of the Dems. floundering during the election, then maybe I would wonder if something is wrong with Webb?
If one-third of Dems are questioning their support of Webb this close to the election, then why shouldn't I?
Let me put it like this: if the 10% likely voters who are Dems. and will vote for Allen suddenly turns into 15%, THEN GAME OVER.
Your elcection is too close to afford to lose any more Dems.
Penn Dem w/ hangover |
July 30, 2006 at 12:53 PM
With these numbers, you can expect Webb to play the race card early and often.
Too bad for him that so many Virginia "African Americans" have left the Liberal plantation.
James Young |
July 30, 2006 at 01:44 PM
If you are newly arrived, or a visitor to Va. you would have some difficulty in determining who's the Dem or GOP'er by these poll results. The questions for the Webb campaign are A; Do you think this presents a problem or an opportunity for the campaign?
B; What is in the present campaign plan for African American voters? C; What present and planned resources
are dedicated to winning and turning out this inestimable
constituency? Does anybody associated with the Webb campaign fully grasp that that if this critical constituency does not turnout in near record numbers, with an over 90% plus Webb vote that there is no way on God's green earth they can win? Admittedly, polls are a notoriously poor predictor of turnout, only elections can do that.
p.s. please spare me the tinfoil hat alternate winning election scenarios that have no basis in fact or history.
July 30, 2006 at 01:53 PM
Thanks for your thoughts. However, I laugh you on your "tinfoil" comment.
I'm with a market consulting firm with access to all of the polls. I probably understand better than you do on the + and - of political polling.
If Allen puts up a couple of TV ads and radio spots in August while Webb sits on his thumb, then I promise you that Allen will cross the 55% marker on election day.
Don't trust me on this, go to your last big election: the governor's race. By this time both candidates were swinging at each other and both raised over $10 million by this time.
Webb ain't raising any money, there is no sight of your Governor, Mark Warner, etc., and there seems to be perception problem with the Webb campaign. Didn't this blog just award the Webb campaign 'weenie of the week'?
I'm 57 years old. Been very active in PA and national elections for almost 40 years.
So I beg the question to you all, young and brave: What the hell is going on with this election and your candidate?
What is awful about this whole thing is that Webb himself may be the Dems. worst enemy in 2008. If he and his campaign cannot get their act together, then Allen will have defeated a "Democrat" war hero. Allen will have proven that he has the will and blueprint for defeating the Dems. in 2008.
You all have got a lot to do, so don't f-it up! As for me, I'm working my ass off to defeat Ricky-boy.
Good luck, stay focused, don't believe your own spin, and always remember: you are working to beat Allen, not each other.
Penn Dem w/ hangover |
July 30, 2006 at 02:21 PM
and so we come full circle with numbers stating the obvious I echo the previous comments what has happened the last 45 days on the dem side. How hard will the ds push on the amendment and will it help or hurt in the end. hint Independents and AA support the amendment.
July 30, 2006 at 02:28 PM
Even if Allen got the statistic you gave of at best 8% of the black vote, there is not guarantee they will come outfor Webb. The name Reagan does not always sit well with that and as such, they may be more oppossed to voting for a man who "likes" Reagan and used to work for him.
July 30, 2006 at 04:41 PM
lots of time off years are always about turn out so alienating or taking for granted any part of your base will spell doom in November...especially in a state where you need all the D's you can afford.
July 30, 2006 at 07:02 PM
Bingo, my man. You hit it right on the nose.
July 30, 2006 at 07:59 PM
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