ALLEN LEADS BY 16- UPDATE

MASON DIXON

ALLEN 48
WEBB 32

Story Embargoed until Sunday in newspapers- ***NLS EXCLUSIVE***

Big lead for Allen- but why after 10 years as a statewide elected official (1994-1998 Governor, 2000-2006 U.S. Senate) can he still not poll 50% of Virginians?!?!?

8 p.m. Saturday Update:  Poll should be out in four hours on the major media sites.  I will link when I see some of the stories up.

UPDATE #2- Daily Progress, Virginia Pilot

Comments

[Mason Conservative]

But Allen still hovers under 50%. That concerns me.

[BDM]

Give it time. But Webb can't like this much. If he goes below 30 and Allen hits 50, forget it. Webb can quit.

[brimur]

The story is that Allen is at 48 against apparently a no-name opponent

Sure sure .. Allen is below 50% .. but that remaining 20% has to break 19% to Webb and 1% to Allen for Webb to pull it off if the election were today.

Claiming that because Allen is below 50% shows some great weakness is not a great argument. Allen only needs 2.1% of those undecideds to win.

[pitin]

Anon 6:56,

Your new to politics, aren't you? Four an incumbent to be under 50% four months out is always something to worry about.

Four months for Webb to get his name and message out. This poll is basically saying, Allen Vs (blank), and (blank) is getting 32 points and holding Allen under 50.

Quick, TeamWebb! Time for a press release! Be sure to say "Felix"!

[brimur]

Anon 6:56- That's a very simplistic take. Being under 50 is a sign of weakness, plain and simple. That shows that most people are questioning whether to re-elect. And this phenomena can easily infect those that are currently vouching support. It's an important benchmark which has preceded many failed re-elects.

And even without further deterioration, what will this 2.1% learn about Allen that will suddenly make him deserving of re-election when, as Ben so clearly put it, they should know him well from his 10 years in statewide office?

[WEBB]

This race is within reach!

[Greg Bouchillon]

Ben, I can't read the numbers, could you make them a bigger font?

[Shaun]

Gotta remember Ben, it's a bad year for Republicans everywhere.

To be leading is good enough. +50 would be nice, but a 12-point lead will most certainly do...

[Mason Conservative]

There is room for Webb, sure--barely. But he seriously has to get off his ass and do SOMETHING! He's nowhere on be seen on television or radio in NOVA, and Allen has a x11 advantage in money. If Allen keeps up is ad pace into labor day, that lead by grow to 20%.

If Webb enters labor day with these numbers, and down as much in cash, its over folks. I hear the Dems talking about Warnerkaine raising money for him and how it will be alright--but they neglect to mention that its not like Allen's gonna STOP raising money. For all the money Webb raises, Allen will match it and more.

This poll my be soft for Allen, but it still NOT good news for Webb. Webbheads, he 16 POINTS down and knowhere to be seen! Please tell me how that can be spun as a good thing?

[martha]

Virginians keep drinking that "red" kool aid.

Mason -

You don't go on TV in July when no one is paying attention, unless you have a huge surplus of funds. It would be a complete waste of money for webb to run ads while people are on vacation/don't care.

[Mason Conservative]

Anon 9:16

Thats a good point, but Webb can't wait forever. He still has name recognition problems and needs to get himself out there and introduced to Virignians. One way would be a quick run of ads across the state. The fact is, as these polls plus numerous others have show, Allen has gotten off to a big running start. If Webb waits until Labor Day, that number could be 20-25% down, and thats just too far back to win. Webb can't afford to wait any longer or he will be so far behind he won't be able to catch up in three months.

[demavatar]

No matter how this is spun, this is not good news for the Webb camp. According to these numbers, the Webb campaign is actually slipping against George Bush's biggest cheerleader! Go figure. The money spigot doesn't exactly gush into a campaign when you're almost 20 points down. The sad part is the Webb campaign's anemic fundraising is going directly to service an overhead of bloated staff and overpaid consultants. Rule #1, if you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. Look at it this way, Allen only needs 3 points and Webb 20, and it's 100 days out. Yikes!

[where's j.warner]

Why don't we see any sign of John Warner anywhere for George Allen?

[Bwana]

So many comments, so little time before I fall asleep-

Why have we not heard from J. Warner? Because you don't wheel out the big guns until you need them...and if Allen can win this without involving John Warner then it makes more of a statement about his electoral strength.

As far as early TV goes, Anon 0916 states the conventional wisdom...on the other hand, I think it says something that Allen had the money in hand to put out television during a high profile time period and help set the public perception/identity of him before Webb can do it...last year when Kaine came early with television for the same purpose everyone thought it was a bad idea-until he won, then it was considered genius.

Webb is losing ground, and that is bad news for him-no other way to spin it. The fact is he would have to develop a frightening momentum between now and November to win, and nothing coming from his campaign suggests he can do it.

Many seem to want to take comfort from the fact Allen is under 50%, fine. No harm done. However, political scientists and analysts have written for years that at any given time 30% of the electorate will vote against an incumbent regardless of party if given a choice-just because they want change. This has proven true time and again. If Webb only has 32%, then it means he really has not moved past the democratic base. It also means that while folks may not be running to the Allen flag, things are not perceived as being so bad that they are willing to vote willy-nilly against the incumbent...and if the seeds are not already in place for change, then I am doubtful the change is going to happen.

Just remember this-Maurice Dawkins, writers personality.

And with that crypticism, I bid you adieu for tonight!

[GOPHokie]

I dont think Webb is going to be on TV anytime soon bc he cant. It will take awhile for him to raise a substantial amount of money.
Allen was smart for going to TV so early, bc he has tons of money anyway.
Most everyone should agree this race is much more favorbale to Allen that Webb, regardless of the dislike of the GOP, president, etc.

[GinterParked]

Bwana: The Maurice Dawkins comment suits your spin, but is off-base. Dawkins was nominated at the ebb of Republican statewide influence (after Reconstruction, anyway). A New York Times article cited his nomination as "a gamble to take away traditional Democratic support from minority voters." Republicans shouldn't gamble.

Webb may lose, but not like Maurice did. By itself, NOVA will put Webb within striking distance. Dems are more motivated this year, and if Webb motivates military and national secuity voters in Hampton Roads, George should start looking for a new carpet to stain with his spilled spit cups.

[Mason Conservative]

Ginter,

How do you know NOVA will put Webb in striking distance? Are you assuming he will match the Kaine numbers from last year? Allen has won NOVA everytime he has run statewide. He's not some second tier candidate like Mark Earley or Jerry Kilgore--he's the GOP's headliner and main event. You all are starting to assume NOVA will go your way, yet almost nothing is being done back that up. Allen's on TV, Webb's not. Allen's out and about, Webb's knowhere to be seen. Last time I checked, you have to actually WORK to win an election instead of sitting around and waiting for money.

[republitarian]

I thought all the problems would be fixed when Larry Byrne and Lowell Feld came aboard....

Can you imagine what the staff meetings are like? Yikes.

[notanovadude]

Republitarian -

Larry Byrne has proven for years that he knows what needs to be done in campaigns. Getting him on board was the best thing the the Webb campaign has done since the primary.

[concerned in the commonwealth]

1) Where's all this national money that was promised to Virginia if we nominated Jim Webb?

2) Based upon these numbers there really is no statistical way of indicating that voters in Northern Virginia are going to pull JW over the top without seeing the survey's crosstabs and then performing the proper quantitative tests. We'll just have to wait until those numbers are released.

[Alice Marshall]

In 2000 Robb carried Fairfax County by 52%, he carried Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church by landslides.

Having said that, Democrats living in Ginter Park should not expect Nova or Hull Street for that matter to do their jobs for the. Start talking to you neighbors about Jim Webb.