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Insider

Hmm..I always heard that it was to be Glimore vs. Davis for US Senate in 2008 for John Warner's seat.

not gretchen bulova

Certainly a possibility, I think 08 and 09 are possible for Gilmore. I have always seen him as the more "executive" type, not legislative.

Roger Jarrell

Gilmore should not be taken lightly.

Gilmore's best attribute has always been that he does not mince words. He's direct, to the point, and generally takes no prisoners.

He'll also outwork most other candidates out there. And, in an early stage of a primary, working hard is the name of the game.

Not Jack Herrity

Roger, Take No Prisoners is an understatement. Gilmore's lingering problem is that every GOP activist north of Exit 140 hates his guts.

I do not see Gilmore trying to run for Governor again. That field is already set up between Bolling and McDonnell. If he does anything before 2010, he'll take on Davis for Senate - or even Warner if he decides to stay around.

NJH

brent

Mark Warner vs. Jim Gilmore in 2009?

NotPaulNardo

Not Jack Herrity - you are right on Gilmore's lingering problem (though I think the exit number is quite farther south than 140). There would likely be more GOP activists working against a Gilmore candidacy than for him.

DukieDem

Attention GOP:

PLEASE NOMINATE JIM GILMORE! PRETTY PLEASE WITH SUGAR ON TOP!

not gretchen bulova

Do any of the downstate Reps look likely in 08? Forbes? Davis?

asmith

Out of those two, I'd say Forbes. But does he want to give up his safe seat to run statewide?

He would be a good candidate statwide, a conservative Republican from a diverse suburban to rural district who knows how to bring in the pork and not just to the Emporia Pork festival.

Oh I hope Gilmore runs.

Forbes wants it. Think back to his LG run in '01 until the 4th District seat opened, all the talk was on him and Gov in '05.

Bubby

The same Jim Gilmore that got himself fired as chairman of the Republican National Committee in 2001?

Budget bustin' Jim?

I'm pretty sure that Virginians have had enough of Jim Gilmore's brand of Republican fiscal policy. But I'm certain there are plenty of Republicans ready to take his PAC money. And plenty of "donors" ready to buy their piece of the Republican party.

JT

Oh, come on now, give me a break about Forbes.

A HUGE reason why in switched to the congressional race in 2001 is that Katzen was going to beat him for the Lt. Gov nomination. This despite the fact that Forbes was initially a heavy favorite to win due to his many prominient backers and his background as a respected former chair of the State Party.

Bwana

JT is correct on the primary reason for the Forbes switch in 2001, but he omits the conditions that led to the reason.

Let's not forget condition for the reason JT cites is that Katzen had been beating the bushes for four years, while Forbes placed too much emphasis on his connections.

Forbes knows now not to do that, and he could be formidable statewide candidate.

Not Jay Katzen

Forbes could never be called the favorite to win the 2001 convention. Chairman Forbes had spent the previous three years assuring people he was not going to run (because of Emily Couric) while at the same time Jay was travelling the state asking everyone for their support. In a GOP convention setting on a downticket race, that didn't prove a smart strategy for Senator Forbes.

Forbes other problem is that he is generally allergic to asking for money. He didn't need to do it as a safe state senator, refused to do it as party chair, and wouldn't do it as a candidate for LG. He can thank Cong. Davis and others for the money for his congressional race, otherwise it wouldn't have happened. It was a close race in the old district against Lucas if you remember.

I suppose as long as he stays in Congress it would be easy for him to raise money, but when you are talking about the many, many of millions it now costs to run on the top of the ticket in VA, I remain unsure whether he has the fortitude to raise the money it would take against a real opponent.

Likewise, you aren't going to see both McDonnell and Forbes run from Hampton Roads. It's going to be one or the other. Couple that with Ken Stolle's flirtations with the Governor's race and that's a lot of guys from that corner of the state trying to occupy the same space.

Gilmore is finished in Virginia...he was a crappy governor and has been fired from every job he's had since. there is no way he will get elected statewide.

Roger Jarrell

DukieDem,
Are you old enough to vote yet?

I'm not sure you're old enough to remember the 1993 or 1997 election cycles?

Forbes would be an outstanding statewide candidate. Anyone who comes into contact with him...likes him.

And, he did a good job of unifying the RPV after the North/Warner schism of 1994-1996 era.

otik_horack

I agree that Gilmore is finished in Virginia--and anywhere else, for that matter. (Anyone remember in 2000 when he thought he was going to be in the running for AG against Ashcroft? Not!)
However, humility was never ole' Jimbo's strong suit, and we can expect him to really embarrass himself.

DukieDem

20 years old Roger, already voted in 2 primaries and 2 generals. And in fact I can remember the 1997 election and even at the wee age of 11, I thought running a single issue campaign was a sure sign of trouble.

not gretchen bulova

The Gilmore pledge was actually brilliant. Now he can run on that same tag line "No-car-tax" in 2009 since we still haven't dumped it.

Roger Jarrell

NGB is correct. Virginia needs to find another way to raise revenue. The car tax is very unpopoular.

Folks are still pissed that they are paying it where I live.

And, folks who move into VA from other states find it very oppressive.

I have a feeling that the GOP may find a very large field emerging in 2009 at the top. Bolling and McDonnell have the advantage of current position, but both had a very tough time getting elected, McDonnell against a strong Dem, Bolling against a weak one. Gilmore could enter the race (thus further fracturing the right wing vote) and regionally popular Northern Virginians like Davis and Connaughton might be factors.

Here's a puzzler for GOP voters: Who would be the worse GOP candidate for Governor in 2009? Bolling or Gilmore?

Not Jack Herrity

Personally, I think the perennial Gilmore rumors are just a ploy by the Democrats to raise money.

Does that make me jaded?

NJH

JT

I don't know, 02:34 anon, but a big question is just which one of their clients -- Gilmore or Bolling -- do the Boyd Marcus/Ray Allen duo throw overboard in '09 if they end up running against one another. Or are they going to try to manipulate the process to get a Gilmore for Governor -- Bolling for Lt. Governor -- Steve Baril client trifecta ticket in '09?

There were rumors in GOP circles in '01 of Katzen being offered an ambassadorship from Bush, until he refused it adding the line "no honor they can give me 10,000 miles away would be as great as the honor to serve here in Virginia" or something like that. Forbes didn't get out until Sisisky died. JeanneMarie was also running for the nod in 2001, also from NoVa.

Don't forget who got Forbes into the 2001 race. It was Davis, who went out and handpicked Forbes when Gilmore wasn't ballsy enough to back him up. Forbes was the only one who could have won the special election, and he did.

NGB's comment about the No Car Tax had me laughing out loud. Right on spot.

Still, very very interesting to see what Big Jim is gearing up for here.

NotPaulNardo

JT - Gilmore threw Marcus overboard recently over mismanagement of money issues - so that leaves just Bolling as a Marcus client. Gilmore is not a viable candidate - Schapiro just likes to write about this every six months when he has nothing else to say.

Roger Jarrell

As Virginia gubernatorial elections go, the biggest question we might want to ask ourselves is who will be the next President?

If a Dem wins in '08, history suggests that a Repub will win.

On the otherhand, if McCain or someone else wins in '08, who knows? It depends a lot on Kaine...and where his numbers would be.

Will he be another Warner? Or, will he be a Wilder?

The answer could make all the difference.

Wow, how recent was the fallout between Marcus and Gilmore?If this is true than we can expect a battle royale between Bolling and Gilmore next election cycle for the republican nomination for governor.

I fully realize Gilmore is not too well liked in many circles but he does have a gimick that worked. When it all comes down to it people are greedy and want more money in their pockets. This is exactly why the no car tax possibly could ensure Gilmore a second term.

JT

NotPaulNardo:

So if Gilmore has tossed aside Marcus,I would assume that Ray Allen is out as well. IS that correct?

And, if that's the case, who with a record in Virginia does Gilmore employ to be his cmapign hacks?

NotPaulNardo

JT - It was within the last month. This is the quote from the RTD on June 18th "Boyd and I are still friends; we've been friends for 25 years. But we do not, at this point, have a professional relationship." This is after Gilmore ordered his other PAC - Americans for Freedom and Opportunity - to be shut down. Scott Gregory is running the new PAC.

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