The Primary Season Starts Again!!!

Deputy Attorney General Considers Challenge to "RINO" Senator

We are less than one year away from the June 2007 primary season that many conservative Republicans have been waiting for when the entire State Senate comes up for re-election.  Which "RINO" Senators will be challenged? 

Most observers consider that if there was a serious leadership challenge in the GOP Caucus that eight (8) of the current twenty three (23) Senators would vote for a more conservative leadership if they thought they could win the vote (some align with the moderates waiting for their time).  That means conservatives must pick up four seats to control 12 of the 23 and take a majority in the majority caucus.  With some conservatives like Ken Cuccinelli and Jay O'Brien facing tough re-election fights they may even need to pick up five in the primary season to offset any possible November defeats.

Conservatives are buzzing that they have recruited their first top tier challenger of the cycle.  Virginia Deputy Attorney General David Johnson is being rumored as the challenger to incumbent Senator John Watkins.

Obviously being Deputy AG gives Johnson a leg up as a strongly qualified candidate to run, which is an improvement over some 2005 conservative challengers.  But it raises a lot of other issues. 

First of all, is Attorney General Bob McDonnell encouraging primary challenges to incumbent Senators of his party?  Second, will McDonnell allow Johnson to stay in the AG's office and run from there?  I emailed Tucker Martin for comment on the office policy for this type of issue in the office, and he responded with this:

Ben, generally speaking, office policy dictates that any request for part-time employment is approved on a person-by-person basis following assurances that such employment will not interfere with OAG duties. So each case is handled on an individual basis within this office. If a member of this office sought elective office that issue would be handled in the aforementioned manner. However, the state constitution prohibits a member of the General Assembly from working in the OAG (Office of the Attorney General). So resignation would be required by law in the event of the election of a member of the Office of the Attorney General.

It sounded to me like they were certainly leaving the door open to allowing a primary challenge from their office.  I called Scott Leake who is in charge of the "Senate Trust", which is the group of Senators who support the current GOP leadership.  Leake said the answer from the AG's office was "an appropriate non-answer", but added that Senator Watkins had been working his district very hard.

Eight Delegates have pieces of this district, but two of them combine for over 75% of the district,  Lee Ware and Katherine Waddell.  Would losing a top vote getter off the ballot in November like Watkins hurt the upcoming challenge to Waddell? 

Senators have in excess of 175,000 people in their district, so it takes some time to mount a serious campaign.  The June primary is only 11 months away, so expect to see a lot of rumors and announcements coming shortly for candidates that want to be taken seriously. 

We'll be spending this summer taking you though each of these Senate districts, and any potential challenges to the incumbent.

10th Senate District (incumbent Watkins)
George W. Bush 57,884 (63%)
John Kerry 33,768 (37%)

Jerry Kilgore 35,574 (53%)
Tim Kaine 31,443  (47%)

UPDATE:  Delegates who overlap with this Senate District:

Ware 39% of Senate District
Waddell 38% of Senate District
Janis 6% of Senate District
Wright 6% of Senate District
O'Bannon 5% of Senate District
McClellan 3% of Senate District
Abbitt 3% of Senate District
Hall 1% of Senate District

56% GOP Delegates, 41% IND Delegates, 4% DEM Delegates

Comments

[wheresdafacts]

where da facts, double siren, its almost 1:40 already.....

So where is this Moore Cummings guy?

[RINO Hunter]

Sounds good to me.

[notvirgilgoode]

You mean you emailed Tucker Martin? Watkins is chair of the 5th dist (R's)

[Not Larry Sabato]

Fixed, thanks. Had Martinsville on the mind.

[Too Conservative]

I want to hear McDonnells thoughts on this..

This would be a bad first pick

[nottuckermartin]

Too Conserv - you have hit it on the nose!

Raise your hand if you think David Johnson is electable.......anyone?.....

Why in the world would the AG allow someone to run from his office against HIS OWN PARTY?

Bob: If he does it fire him on the spot.

[Backcountry Billy]

My hand is sky high.

The guy could win, and frankly, with a closed primary and by-party registration, DJ would beat Watkins in any scenario short of JWat spending some unreal amount of family money.

This is the worst move by a sitting statewide elected since Gilmore tried to oust Panny.

Even if the conservatives had a majority of the GOP caucus, would this mean anything for the Majority Leader?

How does the Majority Leader selection happen??

This would be like Tom Davis sending David Thomas to primary Albo.

Bad Move by the AG.

[Lord Botetourt]

In fairness this has nothing to do with McDonnell -- Johnson has been in the AG's office now for five years and active in Chesterfield GOP for many many more. I suspect he would leave the AG's office promptly if he decided to run. Taking on an incumbent in a district where he has schools and libraries named for his ancestors will be a challenge for anyone, but Watkins is a big boy and knows these seats are not life appointments.

[darth vader switched sides]

NLS:

Has David Johnson announced? If not, this is a moot point and is only supported in conjecture and heresay...not fact..therefore the post would not really be factuall in attacking the AG for having DJ still on the pay rolls....Your thoughts?

[Not Larry Sabato]

I'm not attacking the AG at all, I have no position on whether he should keep DJ on the payroll.

I'm just saying the discussion of his election "raises a lot of issues".

[darth vader switched sides]

fair enough...my apologies for misreading..initially thinking the post was attacking the AG...however, some of the comments are....but this whole deal with the person in question is simply back room chatter....and in all fairness, I think if the person in question did make an announcement to take on a sitting incumbent Senator, that person would definately be smart enough to know the before that announcement is made, he would have to secure other employment. I don't think its fair to suggest nefarious collusion exists on the part of the rumoured chalenger in question and his present employer...You gotta remember that Bill Mims is no. 2 man...and he was a Senator...thus, if an employee of that office announced a challenge against a sitting Republican Senator...I surmise that employee would have already done the right thing and resigned his/her position within the office. That is the way the game is played with honor....David Johnson is an honorable man and I am quite confident that he puts the Office above his self interests. Therefore, unless DJ has announced, this is just backroom chatter not based in fact....and to my recollection, DJ has not announced....It appears at this time, there is no "there" there....your thoughts?

[Not Larry Sabato]

The AG's office was kind enough to pass along my interest in the campaign to Mr. Johnson. He did not contact me. I can only assume if he did not want his name out there, he would have called me up, or contacted me through Tucker to ask that the story not run. If that didn't occur to him, then it is a good lesson early in a potential campaign.

Fair enough....but I have heard nary a story where DJ has announced a potential candidacy..zilch, nada, nothing in the MSM or BLOGS...thus it would appear the operative situation is business as usual. Have a good evening...

[Fritawranda]

I'm new here, just wanted to say hello and introduce myself.