Not Larry Sabato

Request for Help

The NLS blogroll is falling out of date as many new blogs across Virginia get started.  We also need to update the ratings on the blogs on the list.

Any nominations?  Also, is there anyone out there who wants to help us with this?

George Allen and George Bush- CD4

Part Four of Eleven

Previously Covered: 
1st Congressional (2000 lines)
2nd Congressional (2000 lines)
3rd Congressional (2000 lines)

The election results from 2000 on a statewide basis show what appears to be a statewide Republican machine voting for Bush-Allen. 

George W. Bush got 1,437,490 votes (52.5%) while George Allen got 1,420,460 (52.3%). 

But a closer look by Congressional district shows a significant number of split tickets, some places for Gore-Allen, others for Bush-Robb.

Because the numbers ended up so close statewide, it is interesting to see how different areas voted.  The crossover voting may give us some ideas on where this years Senate race will be fought out.

In the 2000 boundaries of the 4th Congressional District (CD), here's how the localities broke down:

Amelia County:  Allen 3.4% AHEAD of Bush
Brunswick County:  Allen 0.4% AHEAD of Bush
Chesterfield County:  Allen 0.3% AHEAD of Bush
Dinwiddie County:  Allen 1.9% AHEAD of Bush
Greensville County:  Allen 1.6% AHEAD of Bush
Nottaway County:  Allen 0.6% AHEAD of Bush
Prince George County:  Allen 0.5% AHEAD of Bush
Emporia City:  Allen 2.9% AHEAD of Bush
Hopewell City:  Allen 3.0% AHEAD of Bush
Petersburg City:  Allen 3.6% AHEAD of Bush


Isle of Wight County:  Allen 1.4% BEHIND Bush
Southampton County:  Allen 1.1% BEHIND Bush
Sussex County:  Allen 0.3% BEHIND Bush
Chesapeake City:  Allen 1.4% BEHIND Bush
Colonial Heights City:  Allen 0.7% BEHIND Bush
Franklin City:  Allen 1.6% BEHIND Bush
Portsmouth City:  Allen 0.5% BEHIND Bush
Suffolk City:  Allen 0.5% BEHIND Bush


As you can see from this map (click to enlarge it), the old 4th District had some interesting crossover.

The amounts of crossover are not large- but its is easy to see the geographic consistency, which tells us a lot about where Senator Allen's support is strongest.

By taking a look back at the other Hampton Roads districts in with the 1st, 2nd and 3rd you can see that was a media market where George Allen was fairly consistently behind George W. Bush, except in African American neighborhoods- which as we said before could be Allen popularity, or Bush just polling below normal GOP performance in that community.

Thanks to Kenton Ngo for the map- as always excellent job done by Kenton.

Disgusting Column

From this week's Reston Connection- I can't believe this guy had the nerve to write this:

    From the article:  "Senator George Allen's recent gaffe was certainly unfortunate.  He opened himself up to criticism and let his campaign get off message by an unnecessary diversion.  What Senator Allen is most guilty of is taking the bait.  But the episode says a lot more about the Senator's 2006 opponent, Jim Webb, the Democrat party candidate".

What?  After calling a young man of color a "macaca", Allen is most guilty of "taking the bait"?  That's absurd, and frankly calling Sidarth "bait" is disgusting on its own.  How exactly is he "bait"?

Continued... "The tactic of following a Republican candidate or incumbent with a video camera is straight out of the nationals Democratic campaign playbook... Imagine if this activity were to have been practiced on Governor Mark Warner or Tim Kaine when they were running for office?"

At this point, I am shocked the Connection even agreed to print this article. Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Jerry Kilgore, Bill Bolling, Leslie Byrne, Creigh Deeds, Bob McDonnell and yes even Jim Webb have all been videotaped by their opponents over the past year.  The reason it didn't make national news is none of them felt the need to look into the camera, smile, utter a racial slur twice and welcome the only person of color in a crowd "to America".

The Connection should not be publishing columns that openly mislead and lie.  This is embarrassing.

UPDATE:  More from the article:  "There is a word to describe following an individual day in and day out, recording his every word and move: it is called stalking.  The Democrat candidate for the Senate should review the Code of Virginia 18.2-60.3 with the penalties thereto and best rethinking turning a youngster loose with a video camera to follow Senator Allen around."

How in the world did this end up published?  For the statute to apply: "The guy in question (Siddarth) must be one "who on more than one occasion engages in conduct directed at another person with the intent to place, or when he knows or reasonably should know that the conduct places that other person in reasonable fear of death, criminal sexual assault, or bodily injury to that other person or to that other person's family or household member"

What a pile of crap!  Is the Connection going to allow Sidharth to be slandered like this?  Other than his dark skin tone, what makes the author of this piece believe Sidharth is a danger to Allen or his family?

MAJOR CUCCINELLI VICTORY

The Jaded JD alerts us to the conservative GOP victory in the open primary case "Miller vs. Brown"

The 4th circuit court of appeals has overruled the judge who said the case was not yet ripe- and sent the case back to be decided on the merits.

This is a major victory towards closing Virginia primaries and allowing parties to choose their own nominees.

We'll be following the trial on the merits very closely as it should be coming up soon. 

Congratulations to the attorney in this case, Senator Ken Cuccinelli. 

Download the decision here.

UPDATE:  Ken Cuccinelli will be here to liveblog- Friday night at 9:30 p.m. to discuss the case.  It's our first ever Friday night chat- but somehow I think those interested in the case won't have other engagements.  :)

A repeat of 1993?

Waldo thinks so.

Alexandria Primary

Looks like Jim Lay is forming a PAC in anticipation of a primary to David Englin in the 45th District.

This is going to be an interesting primary.  Primary voters in this district are very liberal, and Englin's legislative record matches up very well with that.  I don't see any issues that will allow Lay to gain a lot of traction.

On the other hand, Englin only scored 30% of the vote in last years six way primary.  Lay got 12%, so 58% of voters didn't vote for either one of them.  Lay would need to win those voters by a 2-1 margin to catch up to Englin, which again is difficult when you consider he is challenging Englin from the right in a Democratic Primary.

Many of Englin's detractors in the party just don't like him personally.  My theory on it is they don't like him because the insiders don't control him, but part of it may just be personality issues.

The real question is- why a PAC?

Lay should just form a Delegate committee and run instead of forming a PAC that will flow into a later Delegate campaign.  It's misleading, and that is not a good way to start a primary challenge. Is he trying to trick Englin supporters into donating to his campaign?

My early feeling on this race, is it will come down to whether "insiders" in the district vote on issues or on personality.  It's actually kind of a sad spectacle to watch.

Two Huge Losses

Tomorrow is Jaded JD's last day of existence.  Jaded has a farewell post up here.  He's been one of the most thoughtful members of the Virginia blogosphere, and I hope he will stay around in the comment sections to keep people honest.

Virginia Centrist  (Paul Anderson) is also signing off.  Dave Albo must be popping some champaign bottles at this news.  I know Paul got some very upsetting family news while he was at the conference this weekend, and I hope he will reconsider if and when those personal circumstances start to improve. 

Thanks to both Centrist and Jaded for all they have done for the blogosphere.

On Jim Webb

I was thinking of responding to some of the Jim Webb bashing recently, but Eileen did a far better job than I could. 

I hope this draws some extra attention to one of the best posts I have read this year in the Virginia blogosphere.

I'm Not Convinced

Raising Kaine on George Allen and a link to the CCC.

The CCC is one of the most racist groups in America.  Raising Kaine lays this out articulately and I agree that the CCC is an awful organization.

But the link to George Allen is questionable at best.  He took a picture with the leaders of the group.  That's bad, but what did he know about this group?  The article RK is referencing says he did, but provides no evidence to that fact other than one person saying: "He knew exactly who and what the CCC was about".

The CCC is a horrible organization.  They have said things like "Each of the three major races plays a distinct role in history. . . . The whites were the creators of civilization, the yellows its sustainers and copyists, the blacks its destroyers."  and "The Jews' motto is 'never forget, and never forgive.' One can't agree with the way they've turned spite into welfare billions for themselves, but the 'never forget' part is very sound."

If it is proven that George Allen had ties to the CCC, this election is over.  But I'm not yet convinced.  This just gets added to a growing list of questions Allen needs to answer before Virginians will be willing to return him to the Senate. 

Good Work Tim Kaine!!

From the WaPo:

"RICHMOND, Aug. 29 -- Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) said Tuesday that he is "actively considering" ordering a ban on smoking in state government buildings and vehicles, a move that would affect 100,000 employees and inch the Commonwealth closer to a growing national consensus about the dangers of secondhand smoke."

Great first step from Governor Tim Kaine. 

Let's hope this goes forward ASAP.