Alexandria Primary

Looks like Jim Lay is forming a PAC in anticipation of a primary to David Englin in the 45th District.

This is going to be an interesting primary.  Primary voters in this district are very liberal, and Englin's legislative record matches up very well with that.  I don't see any issues that will allow Lay to gain a lot of traction.

On the other hand, Englin only scored 30% of the vote in last years six way primary.  Lay got 12%, so 58% of voters didn't vote for either one of them.  Lay would need to win those voters by a 2-1 margin to catch up to Englin, which again is difficult when you consider he is challenging Englin from the right in a Democratic Primary.

Many of Englin's detractors in the party just don't like him personally.  My theory on it is they don't like him because the insiders don't control him, but part of it may just be personality issues.

The real question is- why a PAC?

Lay should just form a Delegate committee and run instead of forming a PAC that will flow into a later Delegate campaign.  It's misleading, and that is not a good way to start a primary challenge. Is he trying to trick Englin supporters into donating to his campaign?

My early feeling on this race, is it will come down to whether "insiders" in the district vote on issues or on personality.  It's actually kind of a sad spectacle to watch.

Comments

[brimur]

Hahaha, so Mr. President is jumping into the ring? And the 15 year plan, or whatever it is, commences...

What a crackpot.

[phriendlyjaime]

Funny you should bring that up, Ben. I was talking to someone at a party the other day, and I heard from someone (who will remain nameless) that a lot of people claim to hate him.

Any thoughts on this? Do you know why NLS?

[brimur]

Lay? I guess people hate Lay because he called dibs on President for 2020 or whatever. A lot of people wish they had thought of it first I assume. Hahaha.

[phriendlyjaime]

I'm sorry, I wasn't clear-the nameless person was speaking of group hate towards Englin, not Lay.

Jaime, if it is someone who didn't like Englin, we can probably assume it is one of his 99 colleagues.

jim lay was born in Birmingham, England - no presidential runs for him!

someone oughtta tell Lay that. ya know? so he doesn't get his hopes up so much.

Jim Lay is a really nice fellow. It's (not) surprising that Englin's goons are attacking him personally.

"Englin's goons"? What on earth are you talking about?

NLS, just out of curiosity - is Lay an insider favorite? Why?

[Not Larry Sabato]

428- I think you could sum up Lay's campaign as "Not David Englin".

Jim Lay is a really nice guy, but David Englin is my Delegate. Refer to me as "Englin's goons" if you'd like, the fact is, David will win again.

[phriendlyjaime]

ben-so are you saying that "Not David Englin" is acually Lay?

Interesting.

[Arturo]

phriendlyjaime: it is a well-known fact that the "establishment" Dems in Alexandria were not too fond of David Englin, as they considered him to be an outsider running against establishment favorites. To them I say "Get over it!" They (the establishment) should get used to getting beaten by outsiders who have good platforms, energy and commitment to make a difference. I hope David Englin wins again.

[phriendlyjaime]

Thanks for the info, Arturo.

That's always how the "establishment" acts; it's human nature. It's the same reason why so many entrenched party folks backed Harris Miller - he wasn't necessarily a better candidate, but they knew what to expect from him.

That's why I don't think you'll ever see a gung ho united party behind Webb, simply because he's not indebted to any of the higher-ups. They can't control him like they could with Miller.

So Webb's good for voters, bad for politicos. It'll be interesting to watch what happens, especially since Mark Warner could have taken full credit for a Miller victory, but not so much with Webb.

[Voice of Reason]

Let's hope, for Jim Lay's sake, that you are making too much of his forming a PAC. Lay wants to get more involved in Alexandria politics and lay, so to speak, the groundwork for political office. He is smart enough, however -- or at least appears to be -- to know that trying to defeat Englin in a primary would be a fool's errand. Englin may be disliked by his colleagues in
Richmond but this is inside baseball that will not translate into votes against him. None of these alleged Englin hating colleagues will lift a finger against him in a primary.

Rather than taking on Englin in a primary, losing and ending his future in politics (ala Andy Rosenberg), Lay should do good works and bide his time until a seat opens up. Between Brian Moran running for Governor, Patsy Ticer possibly retiring and any other possible scenario, there will be plenty of opportunities for Jim Lay in the future. Provided of course that he gets active in helping the party and squelches the rumors that he is interested in running against an incumbent.

If he decides to run, he loses. Lay does not have a base of support or field operation. This was his shortcoming in the last race. Mid-term primary turnout in election-fatigued Alexandria will make this year's Senate primary look like a tidal wave of voting. Englin has the organization to win this type of race and will do so. If Englin has ambitions beyond being a derived and ineffective member of the House of Delegates, however, he needs to do more.

[David Englin]

Slow news day, Ben?

I sincerely hope that my friends and supporters will refrain from any personal attacks on Jim Lay. He is a terrific guy who ran a spirited campaign in a tough primary. After the primary, he was gracious enough to endorse me publicly and to contribute money to my campaign. At the Alexandria Jefferson Jackson dinner shortly after our race, Jim had his entire family, including his own mother, wearing Englin stickers -- a show of unity and support that Shayna and I deeply appreciated. He and I have not directly discussed his future plans, but whatever they may be, personal attacks have no place and are not in keeping with Team Englin's positive approach to our fight for progress.

Regarding challenges to me, I have always believed that this seat belongs to the people of the 45th District, not to me or any other individual.  Certainly, I would prefer to direct my energy after November (when we elect Jim Webb and defeat the marriage amendment) toward helping Democrats pick up seats in the General Assembly rather than toward defending myself against another Democrat.  But of course, that's not up to me -- it's called democracy, and it's what makes us a great nation.

The truth is that I don't lose much sleep over rumors like this, as it won't change anything I'm already doing.  I spend all of my time when I'm not being a father and husband working hard for my constituents.  I knock on doors every week all year long to stay connected to the people I represent and to serve their needs.  Just last night I was knocking on doors in the Rosemont neighborhood.  We continue to build and to grow Team Englin's volunteer ranks, even instituting a leadership program to turn reliable volunteers into grassroots leaders in their own right.  We continue to use our grassroots energy to fight for progress, whether it's defeating the marriage amendment, electing Jim Webb, building and strengthening relationships with under-served members of our community, or just reaching out to new voters.  I continue working my tail off to raise every penny I can so I have the resources to keep fighting for my constituents.  There's nothing a primary or general election challenge would change about any of this.

I understand that this kind of post gets everyone excited, but I hope we're smart enough to not let this be a distraction from the real tasks at hand: defeating the so-called marriage amendment and making Jim Webb our next U.S. Senator.

[Kris Amundson]

Look, Jim Lay is a great guy and I hope one day to see him in public office. But not as the Delegate from the 45th District. David has worked very hard, done his homework, and fought for the things he believes. In 2007, I will be one of the many House Democrats (as in, probably all of us but I haven't taken a formal count) who will support David. He's earned it and he can count on it.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Anyone want to talk about voter file access for non-incumbents? This was a debacle in 2005- has the policy been corrected since?

[Josh Chernila]

I don't know much about Jim Lay, but I do know that David Englin is one of the best Delegates in the Legislature. His energetic campaigning helped move the vote and drove up Kaine's numbers in Alexandria. His volunteer coordination is a model for everyone in Virginia who does the hard work of winning voters and energizing volunteers. He's certainly one of my political heroes.

Primaries are good for the process, the last thing we need are complacent electeds who think their constituents owe them something. That's not who David Englin is. David knows that he's in a Dem stronghold and continues to use that platform to support other Democratic candidates and efforts across the Commonwealth. He does the hard work at home to help others who have harder work to do elsewhere.

A Lay / Englin primary will bring out any number of pressing issues facing the area, and that's healthy. I hope David Englin wins the nomination. If he doesn't I'm sure he'll join me in supporting whomever does win it. I know we'll all continue to work tirelessly towards a Blue Virginia.

wait...larry; you don't think someone challenging an incumbent should have access do you?

[Not Larry Sabato]

Of course I do. The file is the Democratic Party's property, not the Democratic Caucus. Any Democratic candidate should have equal access to it.

Not if it's the Democratic's policy towards people challenging incumbents, which I believe it is.

meant Democratic Party...

The problem here is how can you convince a candidate to put information into a Voter File that can easily be used against them next cycle by someone who decides to challenge them in a primary. You are discouraging people building the voter file unless you have a friendly incumbent policy.

If Lay wants to run, I hope he was smart enough to export his IDs after his access was cut off.

[Jim Lay]

The Alex. Young Dems had a super happy hour last night, and I enjoyed having a beer with my friend David Englin. We discussed ways my PAC, Virginians United For Progress, could coordinate with David's excellent efforts to defeat the Marshall-Newman Amendment. David and I are strongly united in our desire to fight this mean-spirited attempt to codify intolerance.

The subject of this posting also came up. And we agreed that we need to stay focused on defeating the Amendment and working hard for Jim Webb.

(Incidentally, the subject of my rumored 2020 race also came up, and David politely declined to join me as my running mate, citing a disinclination to subject his family to an exhaustive, nationwide campaign.)

I told David that I did not form my PAC because I have designs on his office, and I also told him that I continue to have a strong interest in someday serving my community in elected office.

Tina and I consider the Englins our friends. Politically, they make a formidable and accomplished team. David has worked very hard as our delegate--in an extremely hostile work environment--and he consistently votes with his warm, well-informed heart.

Progressive Democrats all want the same thing: we want to work to promote a tolerant, well-informed, and well-cared for community. I am deeply respecful of David's efforts in this regard, and I look forward to working closely with him in the days ahead.

[Not Ben]

"The file is the Democratic Party's property, not the Democratic Caucus. Any Democratic candidate should have equal access to it."

A lot of people agree with you, but as best I can tell, the party has refused to provide it to primary challengers to incumbents in the past.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

Great thread.

Dave Englin is known far and wide across the Alexandria area---from Mount Vernon Ave. to the Mount Vernon estate---as an exemplary delegate who puts his sense of what's right for the people above everything else. For that, he is beloved and in my estimation, does not need to worry about primary challengers.

I thought everyone who contributed on this thread did a wonderful job clearing up the matter--congrats!

Now Ben, would you please stop trying to primary every Democrat in the area?

[Outside Observer]

Concerning the DPVA's policy on voter file, I believe that any non-incumbent with a solid history of Democratic involvement should have access to the voter file.

I wouldn't give any whackjob out there full access, but if its a serious challenge by a Democrat that has a solid primary voting history, or committee experience, or record of volunteerism, they are entitled to the data just as much as any incumbent.

How can the party tell somebody that has worked countless hours canvassing and phone banking to build the voter file that they cannot have access to it if they decide to get involved in the political process?

Sometimes Democrats forget that we are the DEMOCRATIC party.

[brimur]

Outside: Problem with extending the rule like that is that it creates a very subjective standard that invites mischief. The rule as it exists is probably safest.

Ben,
You play right into the Englins' hands. They have been telling everyone (see his interview on Pam's House Blend) that poor David is facing challenges in BOTH parties because he is too pro-gay. They need people to think he's got a race because he has a big debt to himself from last year's race. (I think it was $30 or $40 thousand, but he paid himself back $10k from donations this year.) He is not likely to face a serious primary or general election. He is running scared and walking, sending newsletters, fighting floods, making VDOT and Fairfax fix sidewalks that were out of control pre-Englin, fighting evil, single handedly making Tim Kaine address NoVA issues and preserving the American dream. While many political insiders believe he is self-promoting blowhard, the Englins make a good impression on the people who know them just enough to not be skeptical. Although, from what I read of "Team Englin", they do have loyalty from their cultlike following of Deaniacs and Shaynaites. Put it together and unless he really screws up badly in House next year, he won't have any real race...