More Bleeding

Another front page WaPo article on the Allen-Webb race:

"Allen's comments "helped energized the other side," said Eric Lundberg, chairman of the Fairfax County Republican Party. "To the extent they keep harping on it, it will energize our own base."

I'm guessing Eric missed the poll that just came out where George Allen went below Ollie North numbers in Fairfax. 

Who would have ever thought- Draft Ollie- "For a better chance of winning in Northern Virginia!"

One other note.  I had someone with who hosted a Cuccinelli yard sign in 2003 seek me out yesterday to get a Jim Webb sign for her yard.  I was surprised, as it is a very conservative Catholic family, and a family that has worked at the polls for Republicans before.  When I asked her why, she mentioned "Macaca" and said her husband was Phillipino and they were done with George Allen forever.  It's also worth noting, that historically, one of the best ethnic votes for Republicans in Virginia has been the Asian community in Virginia Beach.  Will they forgive this slur?  Should they?

Anyone who underestimates this situation is fooling themselves.

Comments

[James Martin]

This has the dynamics to be a Democratic win with a mix of Warner and Kaine. If Webb plays his cards right, he will win NoVA by 20 points just like Kaine did.

The Republicans are FREAKING, their candidate just self-destructed and lost votes from MANY educated people who read newspapers and take the time to look into these kind of things (aka: voters). Allen's past and present actions give the impression that he's a racist and Virginia voters don’t like that.

My bet is that this race becomes a dead head with Webb not overtaking Allen in the polls until the final week. If Bush’s (And Allen’s) approval rating doesn’t jump 20 points in the next 3 months and with some hard work, Webb will win.

NLS, I don't usually comment, but I enjoy reading them. How about banning the troll? I've seen him comment over and over, and not once have I taken anything interesting from it.

[James Martin]

Anon 12:35: I love you too.

[JPTERP]

Choice quotes:

Cuccinelli: "Webb doesn't have his policy ducks in a row"

Two points:
1. How is Allen's: "We're not going to raise the white flag of surrender" a foreign policy position?
2. Will voters care about the nuances of a candidate's positions if he demeans and degrades his constituents?

Major strike against Allen.

Wadhams "The fundamentals of the race have not changed"

In otherwords "stay the course". A lot has changed since Monday my good friend, Mr. Dick Wadhams.

Wadhams choice quote II:

"Those anti-Semitic flyers are going to be an issue going forward in this entire campaign"

Those sound like the words of a Hollywood villian. As MC pointed out yesterday there could be a serious backlash against the Allen campaign if it goes too negative--especially if the spurious charge insults people's intelligence.

I can't speak for the rest of the state, but I do know that politics are a major past-time here. Voters are wise to a lot of the paint-by-numbers political attacks--and there's a real danger that there will be a serious backlash against Allen if he steps off another ledge.

I'm curious to find out: Will Allen top 30% in NoVA after Wadhams is through with him? We'll find out soon enough.

[TrickyDicky]

ALL IS WELL! ALL IS WELL!

Ben, So often, you are right on teh money and you are especially so on this issue. Your closing comment of "Anyone who underestimates this situation is fooling themselves." is profound. This is not just a "mid-August, everybody at the beach, we'll forget about it in the fall" passing issue. All types of people will be offended and will remember this in November. I see spill-over to the Congressional races. The members of Congress will distance themselves from Macaca Man and the Dem candidates will get a little ride from Webb voters. Not a huge swing but enough in some cases - especially in Northern Virginia with the ethnic votes and Allen's low poll numbers.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Anon 429- thanks. I would also add that voters who were not offended by this, are not going to surge to Allen if they were not for him already. Lundberg is off here, its a one sided motivator, with the exception of a SMALL wing of the Republican Party that better not show its face in public.

[Nats]

Ben: Are you saying/implying in your post that anyone who is asian american and not supporting Webb because of this issue is a racist or borderline racist? If not, do you think they are?

[Doug]

I don't think ben says that anywhere, Nats. He doesn't even say anyone supporting Allen is dumb, emotionally challenged, self hating or anything. I reread his comment and he talked about one family he knows who is particularly conservative who have now decided to back a moderate who is not ethically and racially challenged.

[Nats]

Ben: Are you saying/implying in your post that anyone who is asian american and not supporting Webb because of this issue is a racist or borderline racist? If not, do you think they are?

[there's no such thing as anonymous anymore in this crazy world we call our own]

I have to admit, when I first saw this story I thought it wasn't going anywhere. I am happily wrong.

If Mark Warner were smart, he would make this race his own. Fund-raising, weekly appearances across the state, commercials, etc. He's lost the big mo' and winning the seat for Webb would pull him right back.

[Sean Holihan]

I've already starting to hear rumblings from the Phillipino community in Virginia Beach. Usually very Republican, this election could change things. For both Kellam and Webb.

[nats]

Fair enough Doug, and I like Ben so I doubted he would think along those lines. However, if you or anyone else thinks that Webb has now picked up most of the Allen committed asian american voters because of this issue, you are wrong! Rather than go back and forth on this blog on the issue, I'll talk to you in November. My question remains, do you think that anyone who doesn't support Webb after this incident is a racist?

[Virginia Centrist]

"do you think that anyone who doesn't support Webb after this incident is a racist?"

Anon -

No one said that, other than James Martin. What in the hell are you talking about? Get off of it...

However -

If you think Allen hasn't lost support in the minority community, then you're a crazy person.

[UVA08]

"My question remains, do you think that anyone who doesn't support Webb after this incident is a racist?"

I dont think many people in the mainstream believe that. It's more like anyone who has heard about this and still supports Allen is: not bothered enough by racism to make it change their vote, think Allen's voting record outweighs his inappropriate (and racist) comments, or they have convinced themselves that his comments weren't inappropriate and/or a misprenounciation of...... um, well, some word or combination of words despite him saying the same way twice and it being a racial slur in a language he speaks.

[ZB]

It's a ridiculous notion to suggest that anyone who supports a white supremicist like George Allen is automatically racist.

You can vote for a bigot without being a bigot... that would just make you uninformed or uncaring.

[Doug]

I'm with ZB. It seems to me very similar to Log Cabin Republicans- they are Republicans for fiscal reasons, and even some social conservatism too, but they have very little problem pulling their support for a Republican if that Republican is openly hostile towards them. They did that in 2004 and endorsed Kerry- of course, by that point Bush showed he was not a fiscal conservative, so what did they really have to back in that area?

My parents raised me to look at the candidate. Her charicter was as important as her stand on the issues. His history was important. Etc. They have gone from staunch Democrats to staunch Republicans and back again, and have crossed over to vote when a candidate stunk.

Allen, when you get down to it, has character and history that reek. Jump all over me if you like, but for character Jim Webb is hands down the better candidate. It's not even a fair matchup.

[UVA08]

My question is what this will do for down the ballot candidates? I am not so sure that this will swing tons of Republicans our way but it may very well suppress their turnout in an election when the party is already demoralized.

The Phillipines is spelled like that, but the people, language, culture etc. are "Filipino" not "Phillipino"

[Bubby]

What UVA08 said. This is a tough year to get excited about the direction of the Republican Party. They need to clean house - roaches have taken the kitchen. Have you seen George Bush in public lately? He looks bewildered.

[Doug]

Bubby- that's just drunk and/or hung over. I'm having a hard time faulting him for that- at least he's not walking around calling people monkey. Oh wait, ruler of free world, occupation that is killing our troops, etc. Ok, I do have a problem with it.

How's Not Pam doing?

[Doug]

Oh, and did you see Webb is at the Roanoke gun show tomorrow around 2? I'm taking my boy with me and hope to see Webb.

[George Templeton]

"I don't think ben says that anywhere, Nats. He doesn't even say anyone supporting Allen is dumb, emotionally challenged, self hating or anything."

First of all NLS has enough class not to say it, even if he believes it. Second, NLS doesn't need to say that because JPTERP, phriendlyjaime, Doug or ZB or any of the other posters who spout such crap as "most conservatives are racists" or other such hateful drivel like it.
I love how all of you can read Allen's mind and assume he is white supremacist and a bigot when he said word that at this point is still something nonsensical that you have attempted to conflate with using the n-word. And for the sake of pointing out the obvious I say this next sentence: HE DIDN'T SAY THE N-WORD. Might I also point out that many criminals were hung by noose until dead in the old west, so it possible that is the context of that item in his office.
And please have enough sense not to confuse this e-mail as a defense of him making fun of the tracker or the handling by his campaign in the aftermath. It was dumb thing to say because he handed a previously listless campaign some firepower. I don't understand why he couldn't just ignore the tracker and go on about his speech.

[Not Pam Anderson]

George Allen is a hater. What a turn-off.

[Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr.]

I know plenty of conservatives who are not racists and I understand you're not defending the macaca comment.

But as to you're general defense of Allen, I don't understand.

Suppose that:

- The Noose is Old West
- He just likes Confederate history even though he has zero ties to the South until he came to UVA **to play football**
- Macaca was a mindless mistake

Then, I guess his votes against Martin Luther King Day was about State's Rights.

His accepting membership in the all white club rejected by Governor's for 12 years during the 1980s was because they have good food?

Not mentioning slavery in Confederate History Month proclamation was because it was the War of Northern Aggression?

His votes against getting rid of the offensive Carry Me Back to Old Virginy were because it's a nice tune.

His initial defense of Trent Lott's Strom Thurmond incident was because Trent's really a nice guy.

I bet Harry F. Byrd, Sr. never used the N word much in public but he sure led on Massive Resistance, voted against the Civil Rights Act, defended the poll tax, and did everything he could politically to keep blacks "in their place" during his 40 years in office.

How many dots do we need to connect before it can be fairly assumed that THIS SENATOR HAS A RACE PROBLEM?

Does someone have to use the "N" word or announce they hate minorities before someone can fairly accuse them of being a racist in today's world? I hope not.

[George Templeton]

Not Harry F. Byrd, I understand your point and yes the Senator has a lot of question to answer, I just don't like the assumptions and the mind reading that have gone on in this case, and I found a lot of the other comments (not your comments) like the ones about the "KKK wing of the Republican party" and the "unifying a room full of bigots" disgusting and offensive.
You are right Allen needs to explain himself. His sponsorship of the Senate lynching apology and his support for the full renewal of the Voting Rights Act doesn't change what he has done. Allen can't get anywhere without addressing these.
And you are one of the few posters who has actually put something concrete out there as opposed to a bunch of suppositions and speculation.

[Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr.]

Fair point George.

All Republicans are certainly not racists. I also know many people who love Civil War history, Confederate and/or Union side (including myself), who are not racists.

I think you and I agree that anyone who concludes someone is a racist simply because they are Republican or because they like Civil War history is off base.

Allen campaign is imploding : Wadham invokes "flyer" defense. Yeah, that worked for Harris. He also had the big bucks.

[Doug]

Thank you NHFBS for that. George- not harry has put together nicely what we have all posted here and at RaisingKaine.com. You just haven't been reading this week.

And I did not call anyone defeding or wanting to vote for Allen a racist. I specifically gave the story of Log Cabin Republicans not voting for Bush (they are gay Republicans) as an object lesson that it is ok when someone offends you to NOT vote for them even if you are a PARTY loyalist. I'm sorry that you decided it was best to paint with a wide brush all of us, versus us doing that to NATS. I did very heavy handedly imply it was stupid to vote for him at this point if you are of Asian descent.

And let me add to Not Harry's point- if I run into a football fan who tells me he hates the Redskins, really hates the Redskins, and that he also hates the Eagles, but not as much as he hates those Redskins, and doesn't much care for the Giants and is still really miffed about the Steelers, I'm going to assume he's some dumb Cowboys fan. That's logical deduction. It works, trust me. Allen has given us plenty for logical deduction- the video in Breaks was what I would call the last nail in the coffin, not a sudden "oh you think he's racist?" moment.

Hope that's clearer.

[NotFrenchCheese]

So much of my problem is with the hypocricy of George Allen.

We find out he has $15 million in stocks in the morning after pill manufacturing company. Yet he portrays himself as a real conservative on the issue of abortion. He even votes right. But I guess when it comes to making money - he doesn't really believe. Who is this man?

Then he bullies, humiliates and uses a racial epithet and then makes several lame attempts at excusing himself. Took five days to get a real apology. (I assume it was real, haven't read what he said.)
But - the fact that he used this word in the first place says a lot about what is in the heart of this man.

George Allen is a first class hypocrite. The Great Pretender. That's what we should call him.

[I Trust Webb]

All this is great news. A desperately needed shot in the arm for the Webb campaign.

OK, I still have some worries and I won’t feel better about these worries until after September 17 (Meet the Press debate), September 18 (the FCCC debate), and the next Rasmussen poll (presumably on September 20 or 21).

My worries revolve around the August 18 Rasmussen poll crosstabs. I am amazed and disappointed with the data. 16% of the 47% (or about 38 out of 500 total voters) Allen voters are admitted Democrats. 12% of the 10% (or 6 out of 500 total voters) Not Sure voters are admitted Democrats. That means that 44 Democrats out of 500 total voters (or 8.8%) did not vote for Webb in this poll.

IF JUST HALF OF THOSE 44 DEMOCRATS HAD VOTED FOR WEBB, THE POLL WOULD HAVE BEEN STATISTICALLY TIED WITH WEBB HAVING A SLIGHT LEAD. Allen losing 3 points in one month is still great news, but if just a few more Democrats had voted for Webb the news would have been stunning.

Obviously, Webb needs to convince those wary Democrats to vote Blue in November. I hope Webb jumps out here real soon with TV ads, radio spots, and mailers so that HE can define himself before Allen/Wadhams does that for him.

Reading today’s article in the Washington Post, Wadhams’ quote confirms that the Allen campaign will be working very hard over the next 60 days to define Webb, “Those anti-Semitic flyers are going to be an issue going forward in this campaign.” Get ready to see Wadhams at his best (or at his very worst).

So come on Webb campaign! Time to get out there on TV and radio. Define yourself before you get defined! Stay positive, make ALL of your positions clear, and make sure your press releases stay on message. August is already a Webb-win month. Make September another Webb-win month!

And to all Democrats in Virginia: Vote Blue in November!!

[VBDem]

Many of my neighbors are Philipinos who are citizens because they joined the Navy during in the Vietnam War and were granted citizenship as a result. Many already intended to vote for Webb because they remember his effort to save Navy jobs. I haven't asked them about mucaca, but I'm fairly certain that it will drive a large portion of the remainder of them to Webb's camp. They deserted Kilgore in droves. I think we can expect the same for Allen.

Anyone who does not think this hurt George Allen is crazy but the fact remains that Allen can affort to just start pumping out the positive commercials come labor day and Webb will not be able to affort hardly one unless the National Dems decide to get interested and with this large of a fundraising deficit they may just decide it is not worth the risk. This is just the harsh reality that Webb is facing.

[TCO]

1. It was a dumb remark from Allen. He had gotten too cocky.
2. He is still very popular South of Richmond and is ahead.
3. You seem like you are in overdrive. What happened? This stie was so boring before. Glad to see you get it together to support your cause.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Nats, no I don't think Allen voters are racist.

TCO, There's only a few things that seriously offend me- and embarassing Virginia is on that list.

[Virginia Centrist]

NLS:

How about conservative Catholics feigning outrage over a silly flyer and trying to speak for the Jewish community? Does that offend you?

[Doug]

Thanks NLS. The best and worst moments of this were summed up for me by Rob Cordery on that Daily Show segment:

"I don't know what macaca means, but it sure as shit sounds racists."

"we're not sure if that hurts or helps a guy here in Virginia."

[UVA08]

"2. He is still very popular South of Richmond and is ahead."

TCO.... I am not sure if you were being sarcastic or not but honestly, how many voters are South of the Richmond area? I am not saying they don't matter but I am willing to guess that at least 60-70 of state's population is along or above the I64 corridor even if you exclude the Republican bastion that is the Shenandoah Valley.

[Not Ted Stevens...]

Ted Stevens Smash...

Judo-Chop...

Haha...I've just chopped George Allen's lead by half...

Or was that my computer...

How am I still typing this??

I'm surrounded by tubes...tubes I say...everywhere...

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

Emporer Ted Stevens..

[Not Dick Cheney]

The tubes are a democratic plot to embolden the terrorists, Ted. Grunt. Be vigilant. Please stop pushing buttons, you are wreaking havoc with my internal servos. Grunt. Mushroom cloud, if you will. grunt.

[Not Condi Rice]

I heard Not Pam Anderson was around here somewhere? Anyone see her? Or Mary Cheney? Just hanging out on Saturday night and shrubby has a dinner with his wife, groaty.

[t]

Any "true Catholic" who would vote pro-abortion, is no Catholic at all. t SPEAKS.

[LAS]

Hmmm, but a catholic who would vote pro-death penalty and anti-social justice (civil rights, min. wage, health care, etc.)is catholic, I assume?

Catholics aligning with the likes of Dobson--it just gives me an ooggey feeling.

[DM]

It's really hard to say whether Allen meant it as a racial slur or not. It's possible he didn't know what the word meant and was just implying that the kid looked foreign and had a "funny" name. And it's possible that he was playing off the Spanish "caca," meaning sh**, and he was calling the kid a sh**head.

The thing is, a guy who likes Confederate gear can't go around using ambiguously racist words without everyone assuming the worst about him. Allen basically ended his White House chances with this thing. Americans aren't going back to the days of racial division, not after all the work we've done to bury that past.

Allen may even lose the Senate race. Did you see that poll? Nearly half of Virginians think Allen meant it as a racist comment. Webb's too liberal for VA and doesn't have much dough. That's the only thing that'll save Allen's skin.

[George Templeton]

Let me apologize to you Doug for throwing you in with others I mentioned. I should not have done that.

[thegools]

"Welcome to America..."
Singling out the brown skinned guy (a native born American) in a pastey white audieance and then saying these words speaks volumes about Allen and his subtle (or not so subtle) brand of bigotry.

Don't agree. To all of you Americans-by-birth, just imagine someone singling you out, calling you "cracker-acker" (or some other "non-sense" name), and then saying to you "Welcome to America." I think the guy was an ass and have off his rocker.

Good thing for Allen most people don't agree with me and have let this story quietly die....