More Bleeding

Another front page WaPo article on the Allen-Webb race:

"Allen's comments "helped energized the other side," said Eric Lundberg, chairman of the Fairfax County Republican Party. "To the extent they keep harping on it, it will energize our own base."

I'm guessing Eric missed the poll that just came out where George Allen went below Ollie North numbers in Fairfax. 

Who would have ever thought- Draft Ollie- "For a better chance of winning in Northern Virginia!"

One other note.  I had someone with who hosted a Cuccinelli yard sign in 2003 seek me out yesterday to get a Jim Webb sign for her yard.  I was surprised, as it is a very conservative Catholic family, and a family that has worked at the polls for Republicans before.  When I asked her why, she mentioned "Macaca" and said her husband was Phillipino and they were done with George Allen forever.  It's also worth noting, that historically, one of the best ethnic votes for Republicans in Virginia has been the Asian community in Virginia Beach.  Will they forgive this slur?  Should they?

Anyone who underestimates this situation is fooling themselves.

Comments

[James Martin]

This has the dynamics to be a Democratic win with a mix of Warner and Kaine. If Webb plays his cards right, he will win NoVA by 20 points just like Kaine did.

The Republicans are FREAKING, their candidate just self-destructed and lost votes from MANY educated people who read newspapers and take the time to look into these kind of things (aka: voters). Allen's past and present actions give the impression that he's a racist and Virginia voters don’t like that.

My bet is that this race becomes a dead head with Webb not overtaking Allen in the polls until the final week. If Bush’s (And Allen’s) approval rating doesn’t jump 20 points in the next 3 months and with some hard work, Webb will win.

NLS, I don't usually comment, but I enjoy reading them. How about banning the troll? I've seen him comment over and over, and not once have I taken anything interesting from it.

[James Martin]

Anon 12:35: I love you too.

[JPTERP]

Choice quotes:

Cuccinelli: "Webb doesn't have his policy ducks in a row"

Two points:
1. How is Allen's: "We're not going to raise the white flag of surrender" a foreign policy position?
2. Will voters care about the nuances of a candidate's positions if he demeans and degrades his constituents?

Major strike against Allen.

Wadhams "The fundamentals of the race have not changed"

In otherwords "stay the course". A lot has changed since Monday my good friend, Mr. Dick Wadhams.

Wadhams choice quote II:

"Those anti-Semitic flyers are going to be an issue going forward in this entire campaign"

Those sound like the words of a Hollywood villian. As MC pointed out yesterday there could be a serious backlash against the Allen campaign if it goes too negative--especially if the spurious charge insults people's intelligence.

I can't speak for the rest of the state, but I do know that politics are a major past-time here. Voters are wise to a lot of the paint-by-numbers political attacks--and there's a real danger that there will be a serious backlash against Allen if he steps off another ledge.

I'm curious to find out: Will Allen top 30% in NoVA after Wadhams is through with him? We'll find out soon enough.

[TrickyDicky]

ALL IS WELL! ALL IS WELL!

Ben, So often, you are right on teh money and you are especially so on this issue. Your closing comment of "Anyone who underestimates this situation is fooling themselves." is profound. This is not just a "mid-August, everybody at the beach, we'll forget about it in the fall" passing issue. All types of people will be offended and will remember this in November. I see spill-over to the Congressional races. The members of Congress will distance themselves from Macaca Man and the Dem candidates will get a little ride from Webb voters. Not a huge swing but enough in some cases - especially in Northern Virginia with the ethnic votes and Allen's low poll numbers.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Anon 429- thanks. I would also add that voters who were not offended by this, are not going to surge to Allen if they were not for him already. Lundberg is off here, its a one sided motivator, with the exception of a SMALL wing of the Republican Party that better not show its face in public.

[Nats]

Ben: Are you saying/implying in your post that anyone who is asian american and not supporting Webb because of this issue is a racist or borderline racist? If not, do you think they are?

[Doug]

I don't think ben says that anywhere, Nats. He doesn't even say anyone supporting Allen is dumb, emotionally challenged, self hating or anything. I reread his comment and he talked about one family he knows who is particularly conservative who have now decided to back a moderate who is not ethically and racially challenged.

[Nats]

Ben: Are you saying/implying in your post that anyone who is asian american and not supporting Webb because of this issue is a racist or borderline racist? If not, do you think they are?

[there's no such thing as anonymous anymore in this crazy world we call our own]

I have to admit, when I first saw this story I thought it wasn't going anywhere. I am happily wrong.

If Mark Warner were smart, he would make this race his own. Fund-raising, weekly appearances across the state, commercials, etc. He's lost the big mo' and winning the seat for Webb would pull him right back.

[Sean Holihan]

I've already starting to hear rumblings from the Phillipino community in Virginia Beach. Usually very Republican, this election could change things. For both Kellam and Webb.

[nats]

Fair enough Doug, and I like Ben so I doubted he would think along those lines. However, if you or anyone else thinks that Webb has now picked up most of the Allen committed asian american voters because of this issue, you are wrong! Rather than go back and forth on this blog on the issue, I'll talk to you in November. My question remains, do you think that anyone who doesn't support Webb after this incident is a racist?

[Virginia Centrist]

"do you think that anyone who doesn't support Webb after this incident is a racist?"

Anon -

No one said that, other than James Martin. What in the hell are you talking about? Get off of it...

However -

If you think Allen hasn't lost support in the minority community, then you're a crazy person.

[UVA08]

"My question remains, do you think that anyone who doesn't support Webb after this incident is a racist?"

I dont think many people in the mainstream believe that. It's more like anyone who has heard about this and still supports Allen is: not bothered enough by racism to make it change their vote, think Allen's voting record outweighs his inappropriate (and racist) comments, or they have convinced themselves that his comments weren't inappropriate and/or a misprenounciation of...... um, well, some word or combination of words despite him saying the same way twice and it being a racial slur in a language he speaks.

[ZB]

It's a ridiculous notion to suggest that anyone who supports a white supremicist like George Allen is automatically racist.

You can vote for a bigot without being a bigot... that would just make you uninformed or uncaring.

[Doug]

I'm with ZB. It seems to me very similar to Log Cabin Republicans- they are Republicans for fiscal reasons, and even some social conservatism too, but they have very little problem pulling their support for a Republican if that Republican is openly hostile towards them. They did that in 2004 and endorsed Kerry- of course, by that point Bush showed he was not a fiscal conservative, so what did they really have to back in that area?

My parents raised me to look at the candidate. Her charicter was as important as her stand on the issues. His history was important. Etc. They have gone from staunch Democrats to staunch Republicans and back again, and have crossed over to vote when a candidate stunk.

Allen, when you get down to it, has character and history that reek. Jump all over me if you like, but for character Jim Webb is hands down the better candidate. It's not even a fair matchup.

[UVA08]

My question is what this will do for down the ballot candidates? I am not so sure that this will swing tons of Republicans our way but it may very well suppress their turnout in an election when the party is already demoralized.

The Phillipines is spelled like that, but the people, language, culture etc. are "Filipino" not "Phillipino"

[Bubby]

What UVA08 said. This is a tough year to get excited about the direction of the Republican Party. They need to clean house - roaches have taken the kitchen. Have you seen George Bush in public lately? He looks bewildered.

[Doug]

Bubby- that's just drunk and/or hung over. I'm having a hard time faulting him for that- at least he's not walking around calling people monkey. Oh wait, ruler of free world, occupation that is killing our troops, etc. Ok, I do have a problem with it.

How's Not Pam doing?

[Doug]

Oh, and did you see Webb is at the Roanoke gun show tomorrow around 2? I'm taking my boy with me and hope to see Webb.

[George Templeton]

"I don't think ben says that anywhere, Nats. He doesn't even say anyone supporting Allen is dumb, emotionally challenged, self hating or anything."

First of all NLS has enough class not to say it, even if he believes it. Second, NLS doesn't need to say that because JPTERP, phriendlyjaime, Doug or ZB or any of the other posters who spout such crap as "most conservatives are racists" or other such hateful drivel like it.
I love how all of you can read Allen's mind and assume he is white supremacist and a bigot when he said word that at this point is still something nonsensical that you have attempted to conflate with using the n-word. And for the sake of pointing out the obvious I say this next sentence: HE DIDN'T SAY THE N-WORD. Might I also point out that many criminals were hung by noose until dead in the old west, so it possible that is the context of that item in his office.
And please have enough sense not to confuse this e-mail as a defense of him making fun of the tracker or the handling by his campaign in the aftermath. It was dumb thing to say because he handed a previously listless campaign some firepower. I don't understand why he couldn't just ignore the tracker and go on about his speech.

[Not Pam Anderson]

George Allen is a hater. What a turn-off.

[Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr.]

I know plenty of conservatives who are not racists and I understand you're not defending the macaca comment.

But as to you're general defense of Allen, I don't understand.

Suppose that:

- The Noose is Old West
- He just likes Confederate history even though he has zero ties to the South until he came to UVA **to play football**
- Macaca was a mindless mistake

Then, I guess his votes against Martin Luther King Day was about State's Rights.

His accepting membership in the all white club rejected by Governor's for 12 years during the 1980s was because they have good food?

Not mentioning slavery in Confederate History Month proclamation was because it was the War of Northern Aggression?

His votes against getting rid of the offensive Carry Me Back to Old Virginy were because it's a nice tune.

His initial defense of Trent Lott's Strom Thurmond incident was because Trent's really a nice guy.

I bet Harry F. Byrd, Sr. never used the N word much in public but he sure led on Massive Resistance, voted against the Civil Rights Act, defended the poll tax, and did everything he could politically to keep blacks "in their place" during his 40 years in office.

How many dots do we need to connect before it can be fairly assumed that THIS SENATOR HAS A RACE PROBLEM?

Does someone have to use the "N" word or announce they hate minorities before someone can fairly accuse them of being a racist in today's world? I hope not.