MASON DIXON RESULTS

ALLEN 43
WEBB 43

Comments

[Matt]

Which poll???

[Matt]

Oh wait...MASON DIXON

BOO YAH BABYYY...Allen's gotta work his butt of now, cuz he's caught in the Webb!!!

Real clear politics says Allen is in huge trouble. 43% is horrific. The horny women women tour isin deep trouble.

No wonder LaCivita pushed the slime button early this week.

[phriendlyjaime]

And everyone has been saying that MD is the one to trust....well, here comes a new attack from Alllen, I am sure.

43 for Allen is HORRID.

Next week do we see Allen on his knees crying for forgiveness?

Or will he continue to be a coward hiding behing 3 horny women sling mud at a war hero?

[lokiloki]

Any incumbent at 43 is a goner. Undecideds break for challenger as we all know.

Why is Webb still at 43? Should he have gone up?

[Doug]

Is this the 180 or the 180 or the 180 or the 270 or the 360?

My head's spinning like Linda Blair's.

Mark Foley GOP congressman just resigned over creepy emails he sent to a 16 year old male page.

And "Spitgate" is just starting for Allen (several allegations that he likes spitting chewing tobacco at women).

But lokiloki, I question the old rule about incumbents not having undecideds break their way. In 2004, they certainly broke for Bush, and for incumbents in general.

Its certainly an extremely close race now.

[Doug]

Oh, and Ben, isn't Rasmussen the next one in the field and due up? What is the prediction there?

Didn't Zogby also come out and show Webb down again, and SUSA too?

The family values crowd takes another hit. Has anyone been checking Sen Allens emails?

Congressman Mark Foley (R-FL) planned to resign today, hours after ABC questioned him about sexually explicit internet messages with current and former Congressional pages under the age of 18.

A spokesman for Foley, the chairman of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children, said the congressman submitted his resignation in a letter late this afternoon to Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

Hours earlier, ABC News had read excerpts of instant messages provided by former pages who said the congressman, under the AOL Instant Messenger screen name Maf54, made repeated references to sexual organs and acts.

The full details will be included in a report tonight on ABC World News with Charles Gibson.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Doug,

Zogby and S-USA were both done Sun-Tuesday and since the story didnt hit mainstream media until Monday afternoon the results were volitile and changing by the day.

So this is the first post scandal poll.

[Moderate 5-19]

Nope,

SUSA new poll has Webb at 44% Allen at 50%. Polling sample of 653 people.

Hang in, we have a long way to go and I still think Webb can pull this off!

We will see how long this polling lasts. With the supposed tie one would think the National Dems would be interested in this race. Do these guys have internals that differ with this poll? Webb right now is essentially helpless with Allens devasting attack ads out there right now. Are the national dems just trying to bother Allen enough to make him spend his money? The race will not stay tied for long with Allen running these type of ads and Webb essentally not countering with anything.

Allens horny women's ad is pitiful. It only shows how desperate Allen is.

Without spending any or very little money to counter these ads Webb really has a longshot chance in the next month.

[Virginia Centrist]

NLS:

Actually, I responded to the Zogby poll last Friday.

[lokiloki]

The ads aren't very effective or significant, frankly.

The "undecideds" will break to Webb... meaning, the undecideds are leaving Allen, but not necessarily going for Webb. What this shows is that Allen's base is falling apart. Remember, this will be a base race. So those people leaving might not vote for Webb, they will probably just stay home.

My feeling about this poll is that you have to rejigger the likely voter model. These charges against Allen will significantly dampen his turnout. That's the key to remember.

[Nova]

Anyone have a link to the M-D poll?

If Webb cannot get anything together to counter these changes the indepedent turnout will probably be supressed. More people watch TV at night than read blogs or the newspaper. You can make any arguement you want about these ads but without anything to counter them Webb will be helpless.

[phriendlyjaime]

Anyone that thinks that the National Dems aren't paying attention isn't reading the news. Bill Clinton will be doing a fundraiser, so will Hillary, Reid put out a video soley focused on Webb...

Can I have whatever you are smoking?

[Doug]

wow I'm getting a push poll!

It's a really disgusting one mainly about gay marriage and abortion. It was pushed by Family Foundation of Virginia. Anyone know that group?

Allen spent 30 years creating an image that has been destroyed in the last 3 weeks. He went from being a cowboy boot wearing, tobacco spiting,horse riding, redneck, to a jewish kid from California, hating the confederate flag.

Bush is at 42% I guess those ads Webb has been running showing Allen and Bush staying the course are working.

The horny women ad is resonating with some people. I've had several phone calls on it from friends today. So, don't delude yourself.

Webb has to do an ad that responds to it. And a female politico needs to help him with it. It needs to have some sensitivity, some sincere emotion, and something more than military speak about "billets." It needs to speak to the women of Virginia.

"Anyone that thinks that the National Dems aren't paying attention isn't reading the news"

In many of the competitive races in the Midwest the DNC and the national senatorial and congressional committes are doing ads and giving money directly to dems. I don't see that here in Va. If Webb had as much money as his supporters claimed he would be countering the vicious attack ads. I think the National Dems are essentially hanging Webb out to dry, at least the respective committees. Of course he is recieiving token support from the leaders.

[NotFrenchCheese]

Sabato said on CNN yesterday that national Democratic money that was earmarked for Webb is now going to the New Jersey race. I hope that's not the case. Who do we write?

That does not suprise me in the least. Do the Democrats simply not trust the polling data that is out in public or do they have conflicting internal data which says Allen is invicable?

When women find out Webb's son went to Iraq last month it will be game, set, match. Allen running ads attacking a war hero with a son in combat will be viewed as crass and vile. Those horny women will have to go back to the harpie status ann coulter describes.

[furrycat]

We all knew the SUSA poll was bogus. There was too much fluctuation in that poll. An incumbent polling at 43? Devastating for Allen.

Webb has the momentum right now, folks.

New Jersey generally considered an easier state to win just because more liberals live there. It does suprise me that with the closeness of this race the National Dem Committee's are essentially giving up.

[Nova]

Just wait 'till Webb wins. Then he won't own the DNC anything. He can be his own man in the Senate.

Have any black pages on Capitol Hill ever reported recieving a deer heads in there in-box?

[NotFrenchCheese]

I think these Mason Dixon results will make them think again. This is indeed a race!

Where's Dave Matthews when you need him?

If per chance Webb wins and the DNC continues to "hang him out to dry" maybe he will switch to an indendent or Republican.

In all seriousness, Webb will have real trouble if he cannot counter Allen on TV and direct mail. Is the DNC under Dean having a hard time raising money. I would think Webb would be getting plenty from them. I wonder why he is not recieving the "big money"

[brimur]

The DSCC WILL deliver with a significant TV buy if Webb keeps this competitive for another couple weeks. I do believe that.

brimur,

I think you make an excellent point but can Webb keep it up without any buys in between Allens attack ads. Webb essentially has nothing right now to counter Allen with on the airways. Attack ads usually work, especially when the opponent does not have the means to counter them. These ads have been on now almost two full days withou Webb running anything to counter them. This is devastating to the campaign.

Webb's TV ad linking Allen to Bush and Iraq is working beautifully. Bush is now down to 40% in Rasmussen, Allen is at 43% in VA. It is not a coincedent Allen and Bush are tied to each other. Of course a recorded tape of Allen using the N word or others coming forward will not hurt.

[lokiloki]

There is a reason that the CW holds that negative attack ads should run late in a campaign.

And there's a reason why very desperate candidates forget CW and run them early.

I have seen Webb's ad once compared to Allens many ads.r really small buy in selected markets. I agree, the ad is good but it is not running nearly enough. Bashing Bush in Va will still only go so far statewide. It may be popular in NOVA and Charlottsville but in many rural areas Bush is still popular.

Rural areas Bush is not popular (but neither is Hillary). Rurals hate Bush and Allen's zealous efforts to ship manufacturing jobs overseas.

[Moderate 5-19]

The S-USA poll showing 44 Webb 50 Allen came out today.

Go to www.pollster.com

Doug, I received that same push poll today. I don't know that group but I played along.

[Jim]

I am not feeling good about this poll. With the scandal, Webb's numbers should have increased by more. It appears the undecides just went up instead of people going with Webb. Allen's ads will hurt Webb once again. Webb should have gotten at least a five point bounce. Anyone else feel the same?

Webb is a war hero who goes to bed everynight worried for his son fighting as a Marine in Iraq.

Allen's attack ads on the charactor of a man with a son putting his life on the line in Iraq are desgraceful.

Tell me Allen's attack ads work in Tidewater or other parts of the state where parents and families sons and daughters are stationed in Irag.

[Jim]

I am not feeling good about this poll. With the scandal, Webb's numbers should have increased by more. It appears the undecides just went up instead of people going with Webb. Allen's ads will hurt Webb once again. Webb should have gotten at least a five point bounce. Anyone else feel the same?

[Bubby]

Beer money for Webb!

Webb could have gotten way more than 5 pts off this controversy if he had the resources to counter Allen on the TV, airways, and Direct Mail. Until the DNC decides to chip in Webb will be behind the 8 ball.

[I.Publius]

I got the same poll earlier this afternoon, Doug -- automated male voice, right? And WTH was so disgusting about it? It certainly wasn't a push poll. It simply asked questions that weren't leading in any way whatsoever:

Do you consider yourself pro-life?

Do you believe marriage should be only between a man and a woman?

Do you support the marriage amendment?

Do you support the war in Iraq?

Pretty boring stuff, really. It was more of a canvass than a poll.

(FYI, a push poll would be one like my wife got a few days ago, that asked such questions as, "Did you know that Senator Allen supports Pres. Bush 96% of the time? Would you support a candidate who used racial slurs?)

This is good news for Webb, sort of.

If it were Webb 48, Allen 48—then I’d be really happy. Fact is, those who were polled think that both candidates pretty much stink right now. No way to spin that.

As far as “undecided voters often break for challenger” – yea, that is true. However, we are talking about polling during an emotional week. People are mad—mostly mad with Allen. Like SurveyUSA, Mason-Dixon also conforms to polling questions and analysis statements that aid their employers—most often print media—with good talking points, etc. I still say lets wait for Rasmussen before we get too giddy.

The “Marriage Amendment” and the well-known fact that polling numbers when race and religion are involved can often be misleading. Remember Wilder’s polls right before the election? Yep, Wilder was up by 13 points but he won by about 1 point. With three or four more Allen “up-close and personal” campaign ads coming down the pike, the money he has for the wide distribution in tv markets, the “Marriage Amendment” brewing up, and the unclassified “I’m mad at you now and I don’t want to acknowledge my support for you with this poll BUT in the end I’ll still vote for you” polling dilemma, this race is far from over. Allen still can stave off any Webb momentum.

Plus, Webb only has 43 as well? The real question here is: Do these 43 numbers merely confirm that Webb’s momentum is really in spurts, and temporary in nature? I say yes, and beg Webb to do better in the next 30 days to identify himself to voters and appeal to their best interests. Webb still has some problems with his base, if you haven’t noticed.

Also, BTW, I finally saw Webb’s most recent ad on TNT in NoVA. Unfortunately, it was at 1:30am this morning! Webb says he has more money now, so it is time to better place that ad. I saw two new Allen commercials on CNN, MSNBC, and ABC throughout yesterday.

[Fan of Integrity]

Except that Allen keeps scratching the ball.

Momentum goes to Webb!

[Fan of Integrity]

Whoops - above to Anon 4:38

[Fan of Integrity]

Whoops - above to Anon 4:38

How much money does Webb have to spend right now? Does he have over 1 million dollars? If this race is as close as the so called polls are saying one would think the DNC and the committees would be dumping money to Webb. Is Dean having trouble raising money?

43% is Kilgore numbers. We all saw the vicious ads Kilgore ran on his way to getting beaten badly. Kaine stayed positive and out of the garbage.

Allen is wasting his money on ads his problem is far bigger. Virginia is no longer redneck and rural.

Allen has been falling steadly for months now. Webb will surge in the coming weeks Allen has not bottomed yet.

I can't believe Drudge is linking to that nutbag saying that Webb is married to a post-op tranny. How low can you go? Okay, I made that up.

[plunge]

Webb just doesn't have the money to poll higher than that. He's still got to get lucky on election day: the voter file is pretty darn impressive after 2005, but can he use it effectively? Can he pull out the Dem base?

Please, never pretend that Allen imploding and having his presidential hopes circle the drain mean that Webb necessarily benefits that much. He still needs reams of money and better ground organization, and really, it's way too late in the game to put a lot of that stuff in place. We're basically down to the final month, and lots of voters still have no real who Webb is.

Virginia will not elect a racist in 2006

[James Young]

This is GREAT news ... for George Allen. Mason-Dixon historically understates GOP strength.

[Fan of Integrity]

I got the poll too - not so boring, and in no particular order (to expand in i.puhleeze:

Do you believe that religion and politics should mix?

Do you go to church, synagogue, or place of worship once a week?

Do you contribute to political or religious causes?

Do you trust how the Republicans are handling the war in Iraq?

Do you believe that unborn fetuses should be allowed anesthesia in 2nd and 3rd trimester abortions?

Do you think the Death Tax that survivors have to pay should exist forever (something like that)?

That's all I can remember right now...

[Nova]

No no no...Mason Dixon is good. Great even. Almost always, always right. They have an awesome track record. Do some research if you don't believe me.

But I agree that with all the undecideds, Allen has a shot at getting most of them back if the story dies down.

Where's the bombshell tape that's supposed to come out???

Allen has not bottomed yet. More serious alligations are coming forth next week. Webb will close like reagan did agaist carter in 1980. This has rout all written over it.

Dean will remain cautious with this race because he has every reason to be cautious. Allen maintains a huge cash advantage and the DSCC STILL has not provided the direct funds AND has not even distrbuted one commercial against Allen.

Until the DSCC puts their money and full resources where their mouth is, the DNC has no reason to dump money in Viginia. So stop complaining about Dean and the DNC. We should be yelling at Chuck Shumer right now.

James Young, "This is GREAT news ... for George Allen".

ha ha ha. put the bong away.

[Max]

Your poll is b.s. Check Mason Dixon and see for yourself. Wishful thinking.

Don't Shumer and Dean work together to decide who gets what?

Ok, Ben, explain yourself. What's going on?

What happended to the POll?

Mark Foley did the right thing by resigning when scandel hit. Allen should be a man and resign over this N word scandel. Allen isdamaging the GOP at this point he sould resign from the race.

you just got called out buddy.

[NotFrenchCheese]

George Allens seems to have disappeared and he is letting his negative ads do the talking. He can't do that for five more weeks can he? He's gotta come out and insult somebody!

[Nova]

Please explain.

[Not Brad Coker]

This poll has not been approved by the Decider, and the NSA. Nothing to see here.

Allen is not missing, he is hiding behind three stern/horny women.

copyright violation !!!

MD is goint to 0WN your ass, Ben.

"Don't Shumer and Dean work together to decide who gets what?"

You've never met Chuck Shumer, have you?

[Matt]

Ruh Roh Raggy

Was this poll real and Mason Dixon just got upset about its premature release?

I smell Karl Rovian tactics.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

Put the peyote down James Young. The exact opposite is the case. M-D polling is notorious for oversampling Republicans.

Dude, they have got to be freaking out. James sure is.

[Nova]

Go to blogsearch.google.com and search for Mason-Dixon.

There are a couple of other blogs that are confirming the poll.

It seems to exist, but M-D hasn't released it yet.

One guy seems to think that the powers that be at M-D want to hold it over the weekend.

RK has taken the poll down as well. I wonder if Mason Dixon is going to re-poll again. Are they not satisified with their results. It seems a 43-43 spit is very unusual. Maybe there was some flaws in the polling data. If the poll was held over the weekend the data would essentially be useless since Rasmussen is supposedly polling as well soon. I have to think there are some possible abnormalities in the internals.

you can't copyright news, idiot.

I smell a rat. Something very strange is going on with the Mason Dixon stuff. It is not unusual for polling data to be leaked early but it is unusual for the company to appear to pull the data back after "unofficial release"

Either somebody violated the MD embargo or it's a hoax.

[furrycat]

Hmm, looks like the poll was leaked early.

Mason-Dixon releases polls on Sundays. Look for the poll to come out on Sunday, folks.

If this poll is true, then it really isn't bad new for Allen. It's hard to imagine a candidate having a worse week than Allen has had, and even after all that, Webb can only force a TIE. With all the resources he has at his disposal to shape the race, Allen has to feel like he got off easier than he could have.

The movement in the poll is within the margin of error, as well. That means no real shift in the race has occurred, despite these most recent allegations.

[John S. Mosby]

Not bad news for Allen? If an incumbent is polling below 50% 5 weeks before an election, it's cause for worry. If he's polling in the low 40's, it's cause to start reaching out to lobbying firms who may want to hire an ex-senator in the January timeframe. Again, this is not Webb's race to win so much as it's Allen's race to lose.

Polls are always leaked, did Mason Dixon decide to pull the result to due an error in methodology or something or are they just trying to bully us bloggers here in Va? I tend to believe the poll is an accurate reflection of the curent race. With all that has gone wrong with Allen in the past week it is truly amazing that he is within 10 points of Webb much less tied.

[plunge]

Ever notice how all the Allen apologists can't even bother to use a consistent handle?

You can try to massage movement all you want, but 43% for a once popular incumbent is terrible, even with the margin of error.

Of course, the poll may be a complete mistake for all we know, so both of us are just whistling in the dark.

[Jason]

517 anon: It's not the news that is copyrighted but the methodology behind the data, thus the results as well. I wonder why MD flipped, most of these things leak anyway...

John, if he's polling in the low 40's consistently a few weeks before the election--with relatively few undecideds--then an incumbent is in trouble. In this case, however, it is only one poll. Other polls show him in the high 40s. And this poll would have 13% undecided? That seems a bit high for such a contested race.

Let's say the margin of error is +/-4. If Allen's support was really at 47, it is statistically likely that at least some polls would show him at 43%. So there's no reason to get alarmed just yet.

The real story of this poll is that Allen has had tons of allegations thrown at him for several weeks--especially in the last two--and Webb can't get a lead. If all this won't put Webb in the lead, then what will?

[furrycat]

Anon 5:35pm

is already spinning for Allen. Just funny. If this poll is true, Allen has a real race on his hands. An incumbent with almost 100% name ID polling at 43? And more drip, drip stories coming out? Bad news for Allen.

This poll is unconfirmed. We'll see if it holds on Sun.

[Doug in Mount Vernon]

What gives Ben, where did you hear the poll results and are they legit?

I bet after all this controversy Mason Dixon will pull any results they have previously attainted and possibly re-poll this weekend. Something had to go wrong, I mean polls are leaked to blogs all the time. This is somewhat normal.

I think both Webb and Allen supporters can both agree that something is very fishy here. This might be the last time both supporters can agree on something.

I smell a deer head.

Furry, I'm not spinning--it's not like I'm going to convince anyone who reads this blog of anything they don't already want to believe (I don't think there are undecideds here). It's just my opinion, based on my knowledge of both politics and polling. With the margin of error in polling, it would be very normal for some polls to show a candidate whose support is actually in the high 40s to be in the low 40s. That's just math. And in my view, if Webb can only tie Allen after the beating Allen has taken, then that is a pretty good sign for Allen. He still has a month and several millon dollars of ads to use to knock down Webb a bit. He's taken Webb's best punches, and the best Webb can do is pull even. That's positive for Allen, by any measure.

Plus, the latest SUSA poll shows Webb with nearly 10% less black support than Robb had in 2000. That's even after the allegations. That, along with his weak showing among women and Allen's ad on that subject, leads me to believe that Webb just isn't going to be able to garner the support he needs to get over the hump.

The local paper here..LeesburgToday...says that George Allen will be here tomorrow afternoon at an event with Frank Wolf - the public invited.

James Webb will be in Loudoun tomorrow too!

[Kenton Ngo]

*snicker*

Too late for Mason-Dixon...