Not Larry Sabato

Amazing 180

I've never seen a campaign turn this fast.  Within 24 hours George Allen has all the momentum again, as his campaign piles on by releasing this devastating ad against Jim Webb.

Kellam convicted of ASSAULT against a WOMAN?- Updated

Bearing Drift has Phil Kellam's Court Records.  This could be devastating, especially running against a woman (Thelma Drake).

UPDATE:  Here's the first hand account from the victim's husband.  This is total confirmation this story is coming from the Drake campaign. 

I have no problem with that, they should be releasing this kind of information on their opponents. 

I do have a problem with them being afraid to admit it.

UPDATE #2- It looks like the Drake campaign is not hiding behind anything.  This comes from Drake campaign manager Tim Murtaugh (who gave us permission to publish this):

"Ben -

No one is disputing the version of events as described by the husband.  We received what appeared to be a court document in the mail one day.  As a former reporter, I wanted to check it out, so, yes, we did go down there.  His account is accurate.

I would hope that you are equally as interested in the husband's description of the incident that is reflected in the court document.  Now is the time for Phil Kellam to release all of the documents surrounding this incident and once and for all fully disclose what happened.

That is the real story.

By the way, it quickly became crystal clear to me that I was not the only one who had been alerted to the issue.  People have been mentioning it to me for weeks, and quite clearly, others are in possession of the same document.  This is a story that has gained momentum on its own.

And, JR at Bearing Drift is right.  I did not leak this to him, not that it matters."

UPDATE: 9/29:  More above.

Did Webb use the Slur?!

From the WaPo:

"Cragg, 67, who lives in Fairfax County, said on Wednesday that Webb described taking drives through the black neighborhood of Watts, where he and members of his ROTC unit used racial epithets and pointed fake guns at blacks to scare them.

"They would hop into their cars, and would go down to Watts with these buddies of his," Cragg said Webb told him. "They would take the rifles down there. They would call then [epithets], point the rifles at them, pull the triggers and then drive off laughing. One night, some guys caught them and beat . . . them. And that was the end of that.""

Virginia State Senate-2007 Preview

A couple weeks ago we published our detailed look at the Virginia House of Delegates and the 2007 election.  Now, it is time to look at the Senate. 

In 2007, all 40 seats will be on the ballot.  Republicans currently control 23 seats while Democrats have 17 seats. With Bill Bolling's 1% victory for Lt. Governor last year, Republicans would have to lose four seats for Democrats to take control at 21-19.  Had Leslie Byrne won, Democrats would have only needed three seats to even the Senate at 20-20 and take control.  However, the Lt. Governor's term is over in 2009, while Senators elected next year will serve through the 2011 election, so if Democrats gain three seats, the Republicans would retain nominal control from 2007-2009, and the 2009 Lt. Governor's election would determine control of the Senate from 2009-2011, as the 1997 Lt. Governor's election did. 

How's that for election scenarios!

Control is even more important when you consider this will be the last time all 40 seats in the Senate are on the ballot until after the 2010 redistricting.

Here's how we rate the Senate races so far:

                       SAFE     LIK    LEAN     TU     LEAN   LIK   SAFE
Western            6         1           0             0           0           2         2
Northern          0         0         2              1            2          0         5
H. Roads           2         4          1             0            0           0          3
Rich/Other      4         2          0             0            1           0          2 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        12-----7--------3---------- 1 --------3 -------- 2 ----12 

We'll give you the district by district looks as time permits over the next week.  As you can see, Republicans did a better job drawing Senate districts than their counterparts in the House of Delegates. 

While both parties control 12 "safe" seats, Republicans control seven of the nine "likely" seats.  That gives them a majority of 19-14 with 7 seats reasonably competitive to start the cycle.  Unless Democrats can expand the playing field, they will need to win all 7 competitive races to take control, or 6 of 7 to tie the Senate at 20-20 and leave control to the 2009 Lt. Governor's election.

It's also worth noting that five of the seven initially competitive Senate seats are in Northern Virginia, giving Northern Virginia the opportunity to almost completely determine control of the Senate.

NEW POLL

Column by Not Gretchen Bulova:

SURVEY USA

ALLEN: 49%

WEBB: 44%

From Survey USA, via political wire...

"Day-to-day data shows that the race is volatile. On Sunday 9/24, after Allen had been accused of using racial slurs in college, he led by 7 in SurveyUSA Sunday-only data . On Monday 9/25, after Allen strongly denied the accusations, he led by 11 in SurveyUSA Monday-only data. On Tuesday 9/26, after more people corroborated the accusations, Allen trailed Webb by 3 points, in Tuesday-only data. The 5-point Allen advantage shown here, when the 3 days of data are combined and averaged, cannot be considered stable."

Staff Salaries

Check out this new website.

You can see the salaries of anyone who works on Capitol Hill!

More on the potential Hate Crime

From "The Plank":

"I'm not out to get George Allen," says George Beam, a 53 year-old technical manager in the nuclear industry, who lives in Forest, Virginia and who spoke to The New Republic this morning. "I just think Kenny Shelton is a fine, upstanding person, and I know he is telling the truth."

Update by Not Virginia Centrist: For a reenactment of this ghastly crime, see here.

In other news......

Column by Not Gretchen Bulova:

In other news, Virginia is still buzzing about George Allen's sordid past (and present).  Newspapers in key areas of the state continue to cover his history.  The Virginian Pilot covers it twice today, here and here.  In the 2nd link, Shaun Kenney tries to argue that Allen couldn't be bad because Susan Allen wouldn't marry a bad guy.  Come on, that is a ridiculous argument.  Good women marry bad men all the time, just because she is a splendid person, doesn't mean he is.  There a tons of great women who marry men who cheat.  Allen just happens to be a racist, not a cheater. 

The Daily Press also covers the issue again this morning. 

The Times paper in NOVA is on the scene once again.

Oh I forgot to mention how the Republicans want Democrats to focus on other issues besides Allen's racism.  Did I forget to mention the disaster that is Iraq?  That Iraqi's want us out?  I guess Allen has little left to run on.  Oh wait, I forgot, he still has the bigotry and hate that is the Marriage Amendment. 

"Race Slur Senator Loses Ground to Democrats"

That's one headline in the International Media. 

I'm embarrassed.

Webb versus ????

From the comment section at Virginia Centrist:

From the Code of Virginia:

§ 24.2-539. Party may nominate when nominee dies, withdraws, or nomination is set aside; duty of party chairman.

Should the nominee of any party die, withdraw, or have his nomination set aside for any reason, the party may nominate to fill the vacancy in accordance with its own rules. A candidate who has been disqualified for failing to meet the filing requirements of Article 1 (§ 24.2-500 et seq.) of this chapter shall not be renominated. No party shall renominate any person whose nomination has been set aside for fraud knowingly participated in by the candidate. The party chairman or chairmen shall promptly certify the name of any such nominee to the appropriate electoral boards and the nominee shall promptly comply with the filing requirements of Article 1 of this chapter.

The GOP Central Committee is a very small group (less than half the size of the Democratic Central Committee).  Who is the early frontrunner for the nomination when George Allen withdraws?  Will any Republicans want to face Jim Webb in this national environment with 40 days to wage a campaign?  Because of federal money rules, the GOP will either need to nominate a sitting Congressman with federal money in the bank to run, or someone with huge statewide name recognition.  Jim Gilmore?  Eric Cantor?  Tom Davis?