Not Larry Sabato

Happy Halloween!

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I noticed the same thing Kris Amundson did- the trick or treaters are getting awfully big this year...

UNHINGED

ALLEN STAFFERS ASSAULT!!!!!!!!

CHARGES TO BE FILED THIS AFTERNOON...

DEVELOPING...

UPDATE:  A LETTER FROM THE VICTIM.

Check these out

Raising Kaine has a hillarious George Allen dress up contest. 

Southwest by Southeast has a great halloween vote going on.  Scroll down to see all the entries of Virginia politicos.

Steve Shannon Says Vote NO

Steve Shannon says:  "Deliberations within the legal community and the general public over the past two years suggest, however, that this amendment could result in far-reaching unintended consequences as courts attempt to interpret ambiguous language contained in the amendment.  These considered deliberations lead me to conclude that voters should reject Ballot Question #1 in November."  Read the whole article here.

The McRib!

Column by Not Gretchen Bulova:

The McRib is back at the McDonald's here in Williamsburg.  One of my favorite meals growing up.  I can't wait to eat a McRib on the 7th to celebrate a change in America.

Consider this an open thread (McRib discussion is encouraged)

Webb is the Favorite

Old Senate Outlook:  Toss Up
New Senate Outlook:  Slight-Lean Democratic (Pickup)

In many ways the campaign of Jim Webb has been a disaster.  Sometimes, that just doesn't matter.  In this enviornment, and against George Allen's constant mistakes, we are now ready to project Jim Webb as the favorite going into election day.

As far as we can see the only thing going for Allen at this point is his previous campaigns, and the good GOTV operation he has from those elections.  There really isn't an issue where people are siding with Allen's position right now, and between that and his personal life being in question, his survival is seriously doubtful.

Allen's final Hail Mary has produced a backlash, with many Republicans openly mocking his attack on Webb's fiction books.

Hey George- We aren't worried about the pages in Webb's books, we are worried about the pages in the Republican Congress!

UPDATE:  CNN POLL OUT.

WEBB 50
ALLEN 46

Judy Feder

I see NGB said earlier tonight that she thought Judy Feder was coming in too late to get DCCC help.  I have to disagree.  I was in the 10th District tonight, and Feder signs are all over the place, beating Wolf 2-1.  In fact, I didn't see a Wolf sign without two Feder signs on each side of it. 

Win or lose, I think her campaign has been the best run of the cycle. After the terrible start it got off to this summer, I am really surprised they were able to turn it around so quickly and powerfully. Congratulations to that entire team for what they have accomplished, putting Frank Wolf into the fight of his life.

This one is still "Leans Republican", but I'm considering a change to Slight-Lean Republican soon.  Check out Judy's new ad below, which continues to have the best tag line of the cycle.  Why is every Democratic candidate not using that line?

MAJORITY WATCH

Column by Not Gretchen Bulova:

KELLAM 50

DRAKE 45

It's officially poll day at NLS!

UPDATE 1:  It doesn't look like Feder is going to make the cut for the DCCC to play a large role in the campaign. 

RASMUSSEN

Column by Not Gretchen Bulova:

WEBB 51

ALLEN 46

DSCC POLL

Column by NGB

WEBB 47

ALLEN 43

UPDATE BY NGB:  It will now be telling to see if Republicans release their internals to disprove the DSCC poll.  Often, the parties respond by releasing their own numbers.  If Republicans don't, it will be a sign that Allen isn't a strong as they'd like people to believe.

UPDATE2 BY NGB:  The DSCC is now requesting that the Virginia State Bar release the bar application of George Allen.  For those of you who are not lawyers, your bar application requires you to be totally forthcoming about any past incidents that may be of interest to the bar, including past convictions, drug use, plagarism, etc.