Prediction Contest!

It's 10 days out from election day- which means the 2nd Annual NLS Prediction Contest!

Thanks to Larry Sabato's Hairpiece who has set the lines again this year.

For each election you must predict the winner- with the point spread included.  For example, a 55%-45% victory would be a 10 point margin.  If your candidate was +9%, you would lose, and if your candidate was -9% you would win.  On the other hand if your candidate was +11% you would win, and if your candidate was -11% you would lose.

On to the contest!

U.S. Senate Race- George Allen -3% OR Jim Webb +3%
* Notes from Larry's Hairpiece- Line Moves to Allen -0.5% and Webb +0.5% if Parker drops out.

1st Congressional- Jo Ann Davis -21% OR Shawn O'Donnell +21%
* Notes from Larry's Hairpiece- Line may change if voters become aware that O'Donnell's blog is written in the voice of his dog....

2nd Congressional- Thelma Drake -6% OR Phil Kellam+6%

3rd, 4th and 6th Congressionals- Incumbents Unopposed

5th Congressional- Virgil Goode -12% OR Al Weed +12%

7th Congressional- Eric Cantor -40% OR Jim Nachman +40%

8th Congressional- Tom O'Donaghue +30% OR Jim Moran -30%

9th Congressional- Bill Carrico +28% OR Rick Boucher -28%
* Notes from Larry's Hairpiece- Line may change if proof comes forward that God asked Carrico to run (that's worth 6 points)...

10th Congressional- Frank Wolf -10% OR  Judy Feder +10%

11th Congressional- Tom Davis -13% OR Andy Hurst +13%

Marriage Amendment- Yes -4% OR No +4%

50th District Special Election- Jackson Miller -10% OR Jeanette Rishell +10%

Prince William Chairman Special- Corey Stewart -5% OR Sharon Pandak +5%

OVERS AND UNDERS

U.S. Senate- Republicans at 51 Seats (Over for 52 or more, Under for 50 or less)
U.S. House- Republicans at 211 Seats (Over for 212 or more, Under for 210 or less)
Governorships- Republicans at 22 (Over for 23 or more, Under for 21 or less)

Comments

[Not Larry Sabato]

I'll go first:

Webb
Davis
Kellam
Goode
Nachman
Moran
Boucher
Feder
Davis
Yes
Miller
Pandak
Senate- Under
House- Under
Governors- Under

[Citizen Freedom]

Webb
Davis
Kellam
Goode
Nachman
Moran
Boucher
Wolf
Davis
Yes
Miller
Stewart
Under
Under
Under

[Matt]

Ok...that was confusing to read

[thaddaeus toad]

Jim Webb
Jo Ann Davis
Phil Kellam
Virgil Goode
Eric Cantor
Jim Moran
Rick Boucher
Judy Feder
Tom Davis
No
Jackson Miller
Sharon Pandak
UNDER
UNDER
UNDER

[Liberal_Pi]

Jim Webb
Jo Ann Davis
Phil Kellam
Virgil Goode
Eric Cantor
Jim Moran
Rick Boucher
Judy Feder
Tom Davis
No
Jackson Miller
Corey Stewart
Under
Under
Under

[GinterParked]

Webb
O'Donnell
Drake
Weed
Nachman
Moran
Boucher
Wolf
Hurst
No (and I'll give you a point)
Rishell
Stewart
UNDER
UNDER
UNDER

With supporters like these, Allen's a shoo-in.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_hdAj6o9y8

[Jane Oldham]

ARen't those high school videos sweet? Bless their little hearts.

Webb's dropping like a rock in
the online markets. I guess those betters think what happened today was not a good thing. Perhaps they don't think that Virginians will elect a pornographer to represent the in the Senate:
http://tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=61888&eventSelect=61888&updateList=true&showExpired=false#

[Ward Smythe]

FWIW, anon 1:30 a.m. I'm ROFLMAO at that video.

[GinterParked]

Me too Ward, tho I'm sure you don't want to hear about my A while I'm ROTF

Have a blessed day.

[nativeson]

Well, the image of Arnold turning a Gatling gun on the LAPD sure didn't hurt his prospects, did it? Or tearing man's arms off. Or shooting Sharon Stone in the head. Consider that a divorce.

Perversity plays better than violence, I suppose. If only Webb had stuck in a few scenes describing the torture of turr suspects. Then there'd be no controversy. Webb or Allen? It'd be a no-brainer.

Whether this nonsense helps or hurts Webb remains to be seen. But to call this stuff pornography is either simple-minded hysteria or an intentional misrepresentation of the truth.

[truthteller]

Jane, if Webb loses for this just wait for the ads denouncing presidential wannabe Senator McCain for effusively praising said Jim Webb book that you and soft-core porn writer Lynn Cheney seem to think was oh-so-obscene.

James Webb’s new novel paints a portrait of a modern Vietnam charged with hopes for the future but haunted by the ghosts of its war-torn past. It captures well the lingering scars of the war, and exposes the tension between the dynamism of a new generation and the invisible bondage of an older generation for whom wartime allegiances, and animosities, are rendered no less vivid by the passage of time. A novel of revenge and redemption that tells us much about both where Vietnam is headed and where it has been.” - Senator John McCain

http://www.laist.com/archives/2006/10/27/john_mccain_loved_webbs_lost_soldiers.php

Is that your final answer?
Is John McCain perverted as well, Ms. Oldham? Inquiring minds want to know.

[Jane Oldham]

Did John McCain say that this qualified Webb to run for Senate?

No? Didn't think so.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6ZpC8q3Izc

[allbetsareoff]

Returning from trolling to predictions:

Webb (recount)
Davis
Drake
Goode (under 56%)
Cantor (under 62%)
Moran
Boucher
Feder (recount)
Davis
Yes (recount)
Rishell
Pandak
Under
Under
Over

bonus: voting-machine irregularities stall final tabulation past 12/1.

[Josie]

Do you think it's strange that candidate for Congress would have his campaign blog written by a dog?

A simple linear regression fit to Rasmussen numbers puts Webb at 52 Allen 48 by Nov 7th. Allen knows Webb is surging he had to throw that hail mary last week. Sadly for Allen, Webb is getting support from this baseless 11th hour attack. Sympathy is pouring in for Jim Webb from the Wash Post to the Wall Street journal.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/October%202006/virginiaSenate1024.htm

"Apply a linear regression"

Yeah, that's exactly how it works. Webb folks have to be crapping themselves now that Allen has hit 50 in national polls and in both guys' internals. You put up an interesting fight. See ya in 2009.

I don't know personally of any traditional Allen supporters that are planning to either vote on Nov 7th or vote for Allen.

The disgusting stunt Allen pulled last week has outraged parents and teachers in the Loudoun school system. The emails have been flying for the last two days. Allen's Macaca and N word moment was bad enough but putting this garbage out for kids to read wasway over the top. I am telling you Allen is in big trouble this kind of stuff does not sell in Virginia.

[not gretchen bulova]

Pornographer or Racist? I'll take the pornographer any day

[Outside Observer]

Here we go:

Webb
O'Donnell
Kellam
Goode
Nachman
O'Donaghue
Carrico
Feder
Davis
YES on 1
Miller
Pandak
UNDER
UNDER
OVER

[NJBW]

Webb
Davis
Kellam
Goode
Nachman
Moran
Boucher
Feder
Wolf
Yes
Miller
Stewart
Over
Under
Under

Jane Oldham,

What is John McCain, Scooter Libby, Newt Ginrich, Bill O'Reilly, and Lynne Cheneys obsession with pornographic books?

Thank You. Have a blessed day.

[nativeson]

The only person saying that it DISqualifies him is his opponent (and the supporters of his opponent.) That doesn't exactly lend credibility to the pornographer charge.

Webb says his books qualify him to be senator, he is running with it, and ummm Webb put the books out there so kids could read em.....