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ifthethunderdontgetya

Yippee!

The best man is winning!

phriendlyjaime

How do you know? Are you premium? And are you allowed to leak it?

Just don't want anyone in trouble...

not gretchen bulova

PJ - I have this device that allows me to see all webpages even if normal people can't. It's a super power.

phriendlyjaime

OH. You're way cooler than me.

not gretchen bulova

Zogby also said on Sunday that he would have Webb ahead in his new polls.

Mark

You can thank me for this. I got this from the Politics1.com website from a poster name Me2. Me2 seems to be a kinda of in the beltway polling/political analyst who post at Politics1.com so I think we can pretty much bank of this being right.

Heres what he said.

Rass has Webb leading Allen 51% to 46% with leaners. Rasmussen is downplaying it by describing it as a modest lead (don't sound like he has confidence in his poll) but they are showing the race moving eight points in a week (a massive swing in a matter of days) to a Democratic challenger in a Republican state. Without leaners it is 48-46 meaning that nearly everyone 'leaning' is basically 'leaning' towards Webb.

One has to wonder if there was something funky in the Rasmussen results over the weekend or possibly last week. Both Menendez and Webb gained very significant ground from polls taken just a few days ago. Doesn't seem like events would warrant it in either case.

Could the release of the novel information have actually hurt Allen? Certainly Rasmussen suggests that both candidates have taken a hit in favorabilities

phriendlyjaime

This from RK:


*[new] Rasmussen Premium (4.00 / 1)
I have a "premium memebership" and the news is very good! To qoute: "Challenger James Webb (D) has taken a modest lead over Senator George Allen in a Sunday night survey. The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Webb with 48% of the vote to 46% for Allen. When leaners are included, it's Webb 51% Allen 46%." Seems to line up very nicely with the DSCC numbers. Now, let's GOTV and "seal the deal"!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

by: Ken C. @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 16:41:09 PM EST

Lets see if Real Clear Politics uses leaners for Webb like he uses them agaist him.

I have access to even better poll results then Rasmussen. Allen's negatives are a whopping 43%

Can you spell BACKLASH?

ifthethunderdontgetya

"Book Blurb Based Smear Backfires"

I think the novel info did hurt Webb because he did not come out aggressively at first. He seemed a bit defensive before he regained his footing with the issue. That being said, it is still anyones race with 1 week to go. Will there be anymore October suprises for either side? Whichever candidate gets their dirt out last will probably win. This is sad but true.

ACTUAL RASMUSSEN REMARK:

Virginia: Challenger James Webb (D) has taken a modest lead over Senator George Allen in a Sunday night survey. The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Webb with 48% of the vote to 46% for Allen. When leaners are included, it's Webb 51% Allen 46%. Data and Article coming later. Favorables for the candidates are essentially unchanged from last week. Allen has lost ground among Republicans and unaffiliated voters. Overall, those with a "very unfavorable" opinion of Allen increased from 31% to 36%. Those with a "very unfavorable" opinion of Webb grew from 21% to 24%.

So the real question is whether those "unfavorables" will make it out to the polls next Tuesday. If it is good weather and this turns out to be a good week for Webb, then the deal is done.

But don't forget the large and often silent religious vote in this Commonwealth. Will they come in droves, or will they stay home?

Wonder why they did a Sunday night only poll? Whatever the reason, obviously good news for Webb.

Ben Kyber

This is thrilling. I just ran up and down the halls of my dorm building here at William and Mary screaming "WEBB UP 5" and everyone cheered.

phriendlyjaime

Allen A Team?

::crickets::

Yeah a Sunday poll may not be the best thing for Allen since the likelyhood that alot of his supporters wouldn't be polled because they are in church.

not gretchen bulova

They don't poll at 11 a.m. on Sunday, it is Sunday evening polling.

phriendlyjaime

anon 4:55-

stupidest post of the day.

plunge

"Yeah a Sunday poll may not be the best thing for Allen since the likelyhood that alot of his supporters wouldn't be polled because they are in church."

Sunday polls actually undercount Democrats because that's when they are out drinking the blood of Christian children in their covens.

Insider

A Sunday poll and a Democrat pull ahead? Oh my god, I can't believe anyone above the age of 4 is taking this seriously.

Oldest polling trick in the book.

bye bye George
Doug

Ha! I won't do the "Game over" stuff that Allen posters do when the polls go the other way, but man this was nice to see. The game will be over Nov. 7 and that's that.

Tucker on MSNBC tonight said, "I'm as conservative as they come, and I was offended by Allen putting out this fiction stuff."

Ha.

1. I am an Allen supporter.
2. Sunday night polls are stupid. We all know that.
3. It doesn't matter, this is bad news.

Doug

But Plunge I was at church and I'm a Webb supporter! OMG, I forgot to grab some kids and drink their blood.

Webb has been leading for weeks now. All we are seeing is the conservative pollsters like Rasmussen coming home so they don't look stupid on Nov 8th.

Virginia is a state with a large pop of born again christians so its not stupid.

A pool taken on Sunday would benifit any Democrat b/c Christians are a strong base for Republicans in Virginia.

Polling on Sunday would be akin to not polling black areas of Virginia .


Nowadays - everybody is home Sunday nights watching Desperate Housewives -they just won't admit it.

I am a huge Allen supporter and this is very bad news. I was afraid the novel hit job was going to hurt Allen and it really has.

Webb is a decorated war vetern who has a son in Ramadi risking his life right now. Allen cannot attack a guy in such a petty way and not expect a serious backlash.

Bubby

Ben Kyber: Now go back down the hallway and make sure everyone knows where they are registered to vote...and that they have a plan to get there. Report back.

Yeah Insider, keep up with that. If anything, Rasmussen lean GOP a bit. You weren't complaining when Allen was ahead in earlier Ras polls.

I love the smell of Marco, Jane Oldham, Insider, er, Allen paid bots spin. Spin away!

Webb has closed a 16 point gap and is now over 50%. The Lord is working here, Glory be to God. The Almighty has has serious plans for Jim Webb in the Senate.

Ras does not lean Republican. In fact he has been very favorable to the Democrats this election cycle.

plunge

Basically, the novel thing was George Allen's "Hitler ad."

RCP now has Webb leading in his rolling average. Once the Mason Dix poll drops Webb will be up 5 points on Allen.

Hit the phone banks, canvas your butt off. Virginians are waking up to who really is the better man in this race.

Ben Kyber

Haha...no worries, Bubby. Already taken care of that.

I can report that many many more people are voting absentee here than in usual years. I can also report that I have multiple self-described Republican friends that voted for Webb.

College-aged kids don't seem to be very receptive to racism. Being a bigot may not hurt Allen too much among the white 60+ crowd, but it seems to be killing him among younger voters, who I'm willing to bet will turn out in larger numbers than in most years.

Bubby

You think attacking Webb for his writing turned off voters? Wait till you see what happens to the AA voters. You need to do more than buy a couple of guys to get the AA vote.

Allen snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory, it appears, with his attack on Webb's war books.

Allen was going to lose well before the stupid attack on Webbs books. Allens team knew he was in deep trouble that was the reason for the Hail Mary.

Anecdote-

Some Naval officers I know were completely turned off by George Allen's attacks on Webb's military novels. "Fields of Fire" is a classic military novel.

Matt

Cammon Thurdner...you can do better

Book Blurb Blunder Batters Boorish Bumbling Boob's Battleplan

For Webb you can put

Webb's Win Will Widen With Wretched Writing Whining

Bubby

Ben: Good news! I love to hear that young people are involved. Keep it up!

BTW, check out the cross tabs on the SurveyUSA polling...the 18-34 y.o. white voters are Allens strongest age group. The older voters are Webb's strongest group. Either way, I suspect that the more informed college folks are different.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cf6e41b6-dcf0-40ff-970f-9bcca39ba98b

Matt

I meant thunder...d'oh

Doug in Mount Vernon

Ding-Dong, George Allen is DEAD, the WICKED Allen is DEAD!!!!!

George Allen

Are you there Karl Rove? It's me, Maccacawitz.

Confused 5th District Liberal

Jane? Jane? Where are you? Are you surfing trying to find a favorable Allen poll? I don't think they exist any longer, my friend. Today is the uneventful, but crucial, turning point of the campaign.

Jason

Numbers are numbers are numbers and are utterly meaningless until it's the actual vote count.

That said, these numbers certainly don't look pretty and will hopefully energize GOTV efforts for Allen.

And, Ben Kyber, whatever college age kids think or feel, they typically don't vote. Younger voters were supposed to be the deciding factor in 2004 as well and where were they? I'd be nice if they turned out and voted (no matter what side they voted on) but to bank on it is to lose.

I think Webb has a slight advantage right now but I do think a Sunday night poll favors Demcrats pretty heavily. We will see what happens in the next several days with the polls.

Does anyone know if this was a one night tracking poll or done over the course of several days?

Doug

Jason two weeks ago when Allen pushed ahead again in Zogby: "It's all over!"

Used2Bneutral

So where is the computer skills Job Fair next Wed???
The A-Team will need a hot link to find it.... their blogging skills certainly won't be needed further....Retired government employees don't get paid that well....

It's ours to lose if we don't keep up the pressure with the 96 hour GoTV plans.....

Doug in Mount Vernon

This Sunday night thing CRACKS ME UP!!

It is totally irrelevant, and the only thing that matters is consistency of the polling sample, and as long as the sample they polled is representative, which they always are, then they simply had to call a few more Sunday-EVENING-churchgoing conservative Republicans to find enough who were home. Silly Republicans and your delusions.

I guess that means they had to call a few extra Democratic-leaning blood-sucking voters who prey on the children of church-going voters too. Doug & Phriendly, get home quick! They're calling for you!

GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!!

Kevin

"Ras does not lean Republican. In fact he has been very favorable to the Democrats this election cycle."

Sorry...but that's just the way Republicans have been polling this season.

Dannyboy

Jason:

Like these kind of numbers did for Kilgore?

Jason

Doug, I have never taken any of the polls at face value, nor have I ever said this race was "all over" (except when Miller lost the primary).

October 30) Rasmussen has just released what is a little bit of a shocker poll showing George Allen dropping seven points in 5 days. If the direction of this poll, not necessarily the magnitude of the move, but the direction is confirmed by other major polling -- George Allen is in big, big trouble. This race had already crept up to #6 on RCP's most vulnerable Senate seats and Allen had real risks heading into election day just by his inability to shake off Webb when he was leading in the RCP Average. Now with Webb moving out to a lead in the latest RCP Average, the Allen campaign better hope this poll is a weekend produced outlier.

Doug

Ahem

Webb 55
Allen 45

phriendlyjaime

Doug-isn't it funny how our morning fun with internals turned into the best Webb day so far? I think we are good luck charms, and I agree with your prediction.

That being said, I have to go-my dog is chewing something gross...

(Sorry Ben-last time)


Does Rasmussen have anything recent on Corker/Ford?


I'm enjoying the new numbers tremendously - but we all need to remember the election is not tomorrow. There's a week to go. We all need to work harder than ever.

Dannyboy

Intrade has the Prediction Market for this race at dead even right now.

not Dannyboy

If Webb stays at 51 percent, he will win. You heard it here first dude.

Johnny Longtorso

"Ras does not lean Republican. In fact he has been very favorable to the Democrats this election cycle."

Jigga-WHA? Rasmussen, who consistently has Bush's approval a few points higher than any other poll? Rasmussen, who had Kaine up by a whopping 3 points (49-46) at this point last year?

phriendlyjaime

Um, you just said Jigga-WHA, and I applaud you for that.

republitarian

While I agree that Allen is in trouble.....

I would not do ANYTHING that stirs up his base....like releasing polls that say he's down....

ifthethunderdontgetya

TPM posts all the polls by race, including Rassmussen in TN:

http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/election_tags/tn_sen

Doug

Jaime- I was thinking the same exact thing. Providence. Kizmet. Karma. I personally believe it was the coprophagy talk. Ick. Bing. Bam.

Doug

Republitarian- the last poll was Rasmussen, which Webb and DSCC has no control over. And base, shmase, it just does not exist this cycle beyond the 25%. I know this because I've seen Allen's internals (not the polls). Ick. Bing.

Jim

As I have said on her numerous times, this race reminds me so much of last year's race...the Kilgore meltdown. Heck, the 2005 Ras. Reports 10.27.05 poll only put Kaine at 46% to Kilgore's 44% for a two point lead.

Jim

..too bad Ras. Reports didn't wait until another day to take the poll.

Dannyboy

Not Dannyboy dude:
I agree completely, dude. If that Dem-dude has a 51 point lead, dude, he'll win over that Repub-dude.

British to evacuate consulate in Basra after mortar attacks
By Thomas Harding in Basra
Last Updated: 8:56am GMT 30/10/2006

In pictures: British troops in Iraq

US death toll in Iraq rises

The British consulate in Basra will evacuate its heavily defended building in the next 24 hours over concerns for the safety of its staff.

advertisement

Despite a large British military presence at the headquarters in Basra Palace, a private security assessment has advised the consul general and her staff to leave the building after experiencing regular mortar attacks in the last two months.

The move will be seen as a huge blow to progress in Iraq and has infuriated senior military commanders. They say it sends a message to the insurgents that they are winning the battle in pushing the British out of the southern Iraqi capital, where several British soldiers have died and dozens have been injured.


phriendlyjaime

OT-

This is one of the funniest political ad parodies I have ever seen.

Mr. Show with Bob and David: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCfMgqnq2uo

republitarian

If I was Webb I would not be screaming about ANY poll that has me in the lead...

phriendlyjaime

I believe this poll shows us that the Webb GOTV base will also be on fire. But I get your references...

republitarian:

Actually, Webb is not screaming anywhere. A few Webb bloggers obviously are happy with this Ras poll. Same with several polls that had Allen ahead earlier. The Webb campaign has largely stayed out of poll predictions and such.

Matthew

However, the Webb Campaign is taking the advice of Governor Kaine... always run like you are 5-10 points behind... it's the best advice I've seen anyone give.

not gretchen bulova

indeed, that is excellent advice.

Bubby

These polls are just hot rations for the troops, the objective is a little over 7 days out. Smoke if you got 'em.

Doug in Mount Vernon

Ooooo, republitarian, I am shaking in my COMBAT boots now!

Wait, no I'm not, I'm donning them to get out there tonight and hoist as many signs as I can!

Fauquier Dan

Doug in Mount Vernon,

I don't think republitarian made his comment to scare anyone. I believe he was making the valid point that nothing should be done to encourage Allen's base.

I may not always agree with republitarian, but he seems to be a straight shooter. And I don't think he is a fan of Senator Allen.

Kathy

Where are the tradesports.com fans tonight?

Doug

Kathy- are you referring to the fact that Webb has passed Allen on tradesports.com?

phriendlyjaime

I concur, Kathy and Doug...

Matthew

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2006/10/george_allen_in_trouble.html

and

http://www1.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/election_2006-21.html

and

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html

Ladies and Gentlemen, I just found something pretty cool here... Real Clear Politics (RCP) has moved the Webb/Allen race to the 5th most competitive Senate seat in the nation... please check out the links above... this is pretty big.

Doug

Matthew - thanks for that. It's a great site and I keep forgetting about it! This is fascinating:

"The only big news event in this race was the Allen campaign's dump of sexually provocative passages from Jim Webb's many novels. The conventional wisdom had been that this would hurt Webb in Virginia. Was the conventional wisdom very wrong? Did Allen see his numbers deteriorating and decide he needed to dump the Webb stuff? "

Did Allen know already? (can you say internals? I know Jaime can!)- well, that would only be true if the Allen campaign hadn't been shopping this stupidity around for weeks with no takers until eggman posted it and the corporate media went crazy for it.

Backlash? More likely. More likely to get worse this week.

ifthethunderdontgetya

"Buffoon Baffled By Book Blurb Blunder, Bumbler Blames B-team"

Say that three times fast, Matt!

Webb Defeats Allen

Stay focused.

What are you doing to get out the vote on election day?

Jim's done his part, do your.

UVA08

This is the first poll in a while to show either candidate over 50%. I knew when the SurveyUSA poll showed Webb leading with double digits among Independents that this would start swinging our way.

phriendlyjaime

AAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHHAAHAHAHHAHAAHHAA!

Doug....

Not Huey Long

The silence from Allen supporters is deafening. Of course, what's there to say other than attack the poll's methodology?

J-P

Can anyone say, Mark Warner ad!!!

Can anyone say, Doug Wilder endorsement!!!

I am convinced the Warner ad and Wilder endorsement are moving these polls.

Webb's base is solidifying.

And the light Rs are turning on Allen.

Fed Up

I love all these anonymous posters saying "I'm a Republican" or "I'm an Allen supporter" and then going on to say how Sen. Allen is going to lose, or that they were offended by the novel stuff. It couldn't be a more obvious attempt (poorly spelled at that) by Democrats to give the impression that even Republicans are done with Allen. None of this matters...the only thing that does is GOTV. And it is a FACT that George Allen has the better GOTV effort.

Just keep assuming Webb's a shoe-in, guys...see how far that gets ya' come E-Day

ifthethunderdontgetya

Speaking as a Notorious Republican, I say put your left shoe in, Fed Up.

Then, take your left shoe out...

akaison

Yes, it's a fact the Republicans have the best GOTV in VA unless one looks at the intervening years between 2000, and 2006, in which the state elected 2 Democratic governor, one of which won several points above the polling only last year. talk about holding onto straws- I feel a new word should be added to the English language- Rove (v): to believe one's own hype despite the facts. But GOTV onward

akaison

CNN is reporting a new poll as well (does not appear to be the same one) with Webb 50, Allen 46

http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5576

akaison

here's more on the poll to refute the whole "sunday" night theory of what we saw in Ramussen:

CNN poll: Webb 50% to Allen 46% !!!!!!!
by: thegools
Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 22:41:00 PM EST
(THIS ELECTION IS NOT OVER. GET BACK TO WORK! - promoted by Josh)

From Daily Press article:
".....Among likely voters, the former Republican was the choice of 50 percent of those surveyed while 46 percent favored Allen and 4 percent were undecided.
Because Webb's edge is equal to the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, it means Webb is slightly ahead.

The result is based on telephone interviews Opinion Research Corp. conducted for CNN from Oct. 26-29 among 597 registered Virginia voters who identified themselves as likely to vote on Nov. 7."

Good news. Three new polls all showing the same trend. Let's work harder!!!! Let's make it count


Fed Up

I said Allen has the better GOTV efforts, I didn't mention anything about past Republican efforts. All I'm saying is that the ineptness of Webb's campaign staff is finally going to catch up with him come November 7th.

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