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Laurin

"Hey George- We aren't worried about the pages in Webb's books, we are worried about the pages in the Republican Congress!"

LOL!!!

Not Huey Long

This race has a history of strange, unpredicted twists and turns, but the momentum is clearly behind Jim. No wonder GFA has gotten so nasty. I still think there's a shoe left to drop and it's going to squarely hit GFA in the head.

j-p

Can anyone say, Mark Warner ad!!!

Can anyone say, Doug Wilder endorsement!!!

I am convinced the Warner ad and Wilder endorsement are moving these polls.

Webb's base is solidifying.

And the light Rs are turning on Allen.

Doug

Well, this is pretty hands down amazing. Really.

I have posted on Kenton's pool but not here, but I have been posting since August:

Webb 55
Allen 45

If he pulls another giant boner out of his campaign tricks this week, I'm going to change those numbers for the first time in months. I'm close to going:

Webb 56
Allen 44

Doug

j-p- don't forget the slew of newspaper endorsements. Down here, people don't sit around complaining about how liberal the Roanoke Times is, because it most definitely is NOT. Those stolid old print papers are carrying a lot of weight here and other places.

Publius

Ah, nothing better than when Democrats think they are winning. Enjoy the next week.

The backlash is coming from veterans and military people. The attack on Jim Webb's military books is the low point of the Allen Campaign. Too negative and it has turned people off.

J-P

Ah nothing better than when Republican's are denying reality.

I mean they have been saying we are winning in Iraq for the last 3 years. And look how well that is going!?

Anybody ever seen the movie "Downfall?" Absolutely amazing movie.

So lets call this syndrome, "Bunker Syndrome"

J-P

Holly Shit!

CNN poll: Webb 50% to Allen 46% !!!!!!!

Doug

Who's going to go back to all the comments two months ago beating us over the heads about Webb's having no money and never getting money?

"Webb, along with help from a national Democratic organization, is airing about $3 million a week in television ads to more than $2 million a week for Allen and his national GOP allies in the campaign's frantic final week."

Liars. Or, I should say, delusional twerps.

UVA08

J-P.... Just when I thought my night couldnt get any better....

J-P

This is funny:

While Webb supporters crowed over the results, longtime Allen adviser Christopher J. LaCivita said the poll was skewed because half of it was conducted over the weekend.

"It sure doesn't reflect anything we're seeing," said LaCivita, a national GOP consultant who lives near Richmond.

"Any survey conducted Fridays and Saturdays, everybody knows they're skewed toward Democrats," he said.

The latter two days of the survey, however, reflect two intensive days of news coverage of Allen's claim that selected sexually explicit passages in some of Webb's six gritty novels about war are demeaning to women.

Champ

WHAAAAAAAAAAAAMMMMMMMMMYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

J-P

I do not want to be parental . . . because we all know this, but the only poll that is important is the one that is conducted on Nov 7th.

GOTV

You know it.

Anonymous Is A Woman

Is the DSCC the same poll as the Garin-Hart-Yang poll, which, according to Pollster.com, has Webb up by 47 to 43 as of 10/29/06?

And with Rasmussen today, I'd say Webb definitely has the momentum.

I do think it's the backlash to Allen's stupid attack on Webb's novels. Isn't this the same crew that overreached with Kilgore's campaign ads the last time?

This time, the blowback to the ads came, not from Democrats, but from disgusted conservative Republicans.

Matthew

Chris Cillizza from the Washington Post blog, The Fix (also an MSNBC corresponent and Countdown with Keith Olbermann contributor), publishes what is known as "The Line" and a new edition will be coming out tomorrow. The blog entry will focus on the most competitive Senate races in the country... and I think the Webb/Allen race will have moved up the ladder. Here is the link:

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/the_line/

It might even be a good top line story on this blog. It has been pretty reliable... anyway, as I said above, I think his ratings come out tomorrow.

Bubby

Anybody seen the George Allen arrest warrants? They are oldies but goodies.

UVA08

FWIW.... A new zogby interactive has it 51-47

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-elections06.html

Delta Mike

Delusional people. It's THREE UNRELATED POLLS! THERE IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING THERE!

By no means is this in the bag. But talk about needing a moral boost exactly when you need it!

J-P

If this doesn’t illuminate the shitfuckup the Pubs have gotten themselves into, I do not know anything:


"Seven blunders of the world that lead to violence: wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, worship without sacrifice, politics without principle," - Mahatma Gandhi.

Via Andrew Sullivan

Anonymous Is A Woman:

Yes, the DSCC poll was conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang poll.

UVA08

51 Webb 47 Allen that is

Matthew

Sorry for the extra post... Chris Cilliza waited until the middle of September before reporting that the Senate seat was in play, so I think that's fairly conservative...

J-P

I wonder if the DSCC knew the other polls where coming out today so they released their poll to create the ol' triple whammy or more the ol' quadruple whammy!

Publius

No you are all wrong the only poll that matters is the one going on at http://vafederalist.blogspot.com/2006/10/blog-poll-who-do-you-support.html feel free to participate. Seriously though I think a Democrat poll is about as reliable as a Republican poll. They are partisan to help the candidate feel better.

UVA08

Publius.... but there are two other polls to back up what they put out. (Zogby Interactive also shows the same results but I dont count that for much.) In fact the independent pollsters actually paint a more optimistic picture for the Dems than the one conducted by the DSCC.

Bryan J. Scrafford

I think it is great news that these poll results are showing Webb leading by a few points. I was a little worried for a few weeks because it seemed as though the polls had somewhat settled around Allen holding a two or three point lead after the initial response to Allen's repeated campaign blunders.

As Jim Webb and his campaign to continue to promote his platform, however, it now appears as though Virginians are beginning to see that not only is George Allen the wrong man to represent Virginia in the US Senate, but Jim Webb has the ideas and beliefs that make him the right man to be one of Virginia’s Senators.

At the same time, however, Webb’s supporters must remember that there is still a week left between now and Election Day. Although that usually isn’t a terribly long time, there are an unimaginable number of things that could happen in the world of politics during the last week of a campaign.

bye bye George

Plubis say it with me:

BYE BYE GEORGE

J-P

Here is a digression:

Because this is just f'in hilarious:

WEED CHALLENGES GOODE TO CHARITY BOXING MATCH

http://www.newsadvance.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=LNA%2FMGArticle%2FLNA_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1149191366566&path=!news!archive

Not Huey Long

This just seems too good to be true, but didn't we all know the race could break this way!?!

LAS

Publius, this is the land of Jefferson, for Chrissake!

"We simply ask, “Who are do you support and why?”

And, btw, it should also be "WHOM do you Support?"

Look, we all make typos and such, but it seems to me that if you are writing a story or conducting a poll, you should read it over for egregious mistakes before posting.

Brian Scrafford,

I completely agree with you.

To add to that, FEC documents for the Pre-General submission are starting to come out.

ALLEN HAS $2.37M CASH-ON-HAND For the final week!!!

Webb's FEC data has not been scanned in for viewing (they do this in alphabetical order, so it should be out by COB Tuesday).

With the millions from DSCC (although they are starting to run short), let's hope that Webb has enough for the home stretch.

Too bad that the first Tuesday of November is next week and not tomorrow. Ugh.

What this all means is that Webb is now up only two or three points, with the need for as much GOTV effort as possible throughout the Commonwealth.

7 days is an eternity in elections. Let's hope Webb keeps the momentum and has not peaked too early!

Publius

I am not saying that these polls mean nothing. I looked on Real Clear Politics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/charts/?poll_id=14 as they have a great chart to show the averages of the polls. It is definitely tightening up. However, I would not agree with those who seem to think that Webb’s trashy writings are somehow going to be bad for Allen. The MSM has not touched the story. They have left it like it is a blog only story.

LAS

Speaking of blogs, Wonkette is a guilty pleasure of mine:

"Why was he arrested? The DSCC wants to know. While the charitable among us say it could be for something as innocent as an unpaid parking ticket, this is George Allen we’re talking about, so he probably chocked a Polack to death."

"What’s with his sealed divorce records? Current popular theory: He “spit on his wife.” Once again: This is George Allen. He spits on everyone and everything. He probably shot her dog and put it in a black family’s fridge."

I know I shouldn't laugh, but I do.

Dannyboy

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-elections06.html

Zogby poll out showing Webb up 3.8%. Again, it's Zogby, so take it with a grain of salt. Basically, all it's good for is padding Webb's growing lead on RCP.

Publius

LAS
Thanks for the tip. I'm not sure how I missed that one.
7 days is an eternity, be it for good or ill.

Lo Scrivano

The result is based on telephone interviews Opinion Research Corp. conducted for CNN from Oct. 26-29 among 597 registered Virginia voters who identified themselves as likely to vote on Nov. 7.

Among the larger sample of 904 registered voters, the results were about even, with 48 percent of the respondents backing Webb, 46 percent for Allen and 5 percent undecided. One percent voiced support for an "other" candidate not identified in the survey.

This is found on the cnn, website...
so the more people polled, the better it looks for Allen??
What does that say, about your lovely results?

Uh oh.

Weather not looking good for November 7 in NoVA.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/sports/tenday/22180?from=36hr_topnav_sports

Darn, it is a shame that the election is not tomorrow!

C'mon good weather!

UVA08

"What does that say, about your lovely results?"

That they are obviously bothering you.

Lo Scrivano

no, they are polls, I really don't care about polls for my candidate or not. I just find it funny, that Dems are jumping all over it like it is gospel, yet the more people polled the worse it was for them, if it was a poll for Allen I would say the same thing. The poll may be great news for Webb, but again the more people beign polled the worse it looks, so you know nothing, cause on election day, more than 907 people will vote, or i surely hope so.

(This post was made with no spin intended, it was a reality check)

Jane Oldham

If these polls don't energize republicans, nothing will. This will scare the crap outta republicans, scare them right into the voting booth.

Rain will be the icing on the cake. We all know that democrats can't find their way to the polls if it's raining.

Bubby

The TV ad buys are done, Allen has bought all the TV time he can. All he can buy now are poll workers and GOTV phonebankers...Jim Webb gets them for free from his long list of volunteers.

ifthethunderdontgetya

=>However, I would not agree with those who seem to think that Webb’s trashy writings are somehow going to be bad for Allen. The MSM has not touched the story. They have left it like it is a blog only story.<=

So said Publius, as he spinned away.

"Buffoon Baffled By Book Blurb Blunder, Bumbler Blames B-team"

Hope that helps, Publius.

Lo Scrivano

Jane,
Although I agree with you
why not lay off of the happy feel good spins, be honest, honestly i am sick of politics, why can't people be honest, both dem and repub.

akaison

is it morning in america? we will know on nov 7th- and to all you spin masters on the right- keep spinning it. perhaps if that doesn't work the rapture will come and save you from us evil liberal christians.

plunge

"If these polls don't energize republicans, nothing will. This will scare the crap outta republicans, scare them right into the voting booth."

Right: just like happened with Tim Kaine: all those final polls showing him winning sure energized the Republicans to come out and vote... for Tim Kaine at higher rates than anyone had expected.

Dannyboy signed on at 11:28 and it only took him three minutes to bash the Webb Campaign.

Get over it buddy! Move on. You look sillier with each keystroke.......

Lo Scrivano

ifthe,
if I did not know democrats that had a brain i would assume they did not have one, just cause of your comments.
you do not make intelligent points, all you do is put people down, almost every other democrat here makes a point here and there, although i may disagree, they make points. you spew stuff out of your mouth with having no idea what you talking about, you spin like no tommarow, all you do is spin, and when someone makes a point you say htey spin, you sir are a quibbler, quibblers have no place in intelligent conversation.

akaison

i am not sick of politics. i am tired of whiny little conservatives who talk the big game of being adults, but are incapable of dealing with life as it is. the only time, as my great grandmother used to say, that you give up is when the are putting you int he ground. she also said that people are people, some are fools when they are young, and some are fools when the are old. i see a lot of foolishness coming out of the right in this country. for the record, not all the ideas and skepticism of the right are bad. not all those of the left are bad either. the problem is not that. the problem is the right believes that it is ordained by God to know better than the rest of us. that belief is hubris, and it is that belief if you lose next which will be the basis for your lose.

LAS

Lo Scriv, I think it says that these people (part of the larger sample) were not necessarily likely to vote. They were registered voters only.

Or have I got it wrong?

It's kind of late not to be focusing exclusively on likely voters, I'm thinking.

Publius

You would have to be a fool not to volunteer for Allen. Also I hate to disagree with a conservative, but Jane I am always a big supporter of a high voter turn out. I hope it is nice. I think Allen still has the votes to win.

The way I look at polls in general is that they are always skewed about 3 points in favor of the Dems. When republicans are down by more than 4 points I start thinking they may be neck and neck. So the race is close in my view.

Lo Scrivano

forgive my spelling errors, that was written in a umm, heat of passion?
lol, yeah that sounds good, that is what it was.
If anyone did not understand what I said, please ask and i will correct all grammatical errors.

Dannyboy

Anon 11:54-
Sorry, I just don't put much credit in Zogby. I do, however, in Rasmussen. And the others. I truly think that these polls are accurate, and that the Allen camp claims of "weekend polling bias" are just weak blocks.

Dannyboy

As to the weather comment:
Yuck. 30% chance? It's a week away, though. Let's hope whatever storm is coming holds off one day extra.

ifthethunderdontgetya

Lo Sciviano, I, always, wait to, hear, your voluminous, insights.

Publius

Feel the love...

Lo Scrivano

ouch...

Lo Scivano

ifthe,
May I ask why, you wait, for my comments?
I don't usually enjoy
"voluminous, insights."
I guess that is just me.
To each his own.

Publius

Be sure to check out http://www.vafederalist.blogspot.com/ tomorrow for endorsements, and those of you who have not voted in the Blog poll, go over and vote.

t

Allen's demise is attributable to his campaigning with liberal John Warner. Allen should be campaigning with pro-lifers to pick up his numbers.

Lo Scrivano

I am more of a pointed insight, kinda guy.

size of the insight, could be taken as, written with a lot of words, or as being a "huge" insight, into the matter.
Sarcasm, is only useful, if you explain yourself just enough that people understand you to be sarcastic, but you did not do such, you left room for the interpretation, that my comments were too wordy, which seems irrelivent. Yet I must say, to each his own.

your comments are "neither here nor there" or "extraneous"


t

How cute. The liberals actually think that they are going to win.

t

The gloating by liberals on this site motivates movers like t to push Allen over the top. When will you liberals ever learn?

Lo Scrivano

t,
umm, I am a big conservative and all, but uhh, I am pretty sure it is only legal for you to vote once...unless this race is closer than both sides think, your vote will not be the only vote to put anybody over the top...not saying don't vote, saying, umm you are a bit prideful, maybe an itsy bitsy bit???

Not Larry Sabato

Lo, you must be new in the blogosphere. "t" is a pro-life kingmaker.

You know what? You're right. Here's something else to motivate you. You can sing it on the campaign trail:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0_8dnMIg5I

Lo Scrivano

Yes, NLS i am new, and I figured t was umm pro life, and all, and well so am I, but yeah, "kingmaker"?


No offense t, but ya come off as arrogant, which doesn't represent well for the rest of us that believe in pro life...

Matt

Behh, this isn't in the bag yet. Webb's not going to win unless he's outside the Margin of error. All of these polls are close. Let's not get TOO optimistic here. But I will agree. Attacking Webb's Novels??? Stupidest campaign move ever. Good job George, way to look more like an out of touch wacko. Soon you'll be attacking Webb's college essays for not being in 12 point font. Or maybe attacking attacking his house, for not being made of enough American products? Maybe attacking his car, for being made of parts that have been outsourced to other countries?

Lo Scrivano

Webb used font other than 12?!?!?! I will never vote for HIM!

lol, ok the whole book thing, I would normally say, his books don't matter, but people are forgetting that Webb said he is qualified to be our senator because he is a "great" author, and that if more politicians did what they wrote....so ya know, what he wrote was pretty sick, and if we are to base his qualification on books, then he loses in my book.

(course I don't like the fact that he is a realist and not a romantic, so i am biased:)


Honestly here is my take on it, the media has a liberal bias, but greater then their bias, is their desire for good "ratings"
if the race continued to be close with Allen up, where is the great story, but with a lead change, ohhhh the election is hottly contested, and is the closest EVER!!!!!!!!

Ok, i am exagerating a bit, but the fact is 907 people were polled and they only took 600ish, they can do a lot of picking and choosing to make that, what they want, polls are too subjective for those doing the polling.
Many people brought up kilgore and kaine, and kaine won that race big, but the polls had it close up to election day, why do you think that is, a close race sells, literally, it is about the money, thatis my humble not entirly correct, opinion.
(I admit there are variables)

Lo Scrivano

P.s.
This is not about spin,it goes both ways, for dems and repubs.

nativeson

[t]How cute. The liberals actually think that they are going to win. ... [/t]

FYI. Haughty, cryptic asides--especially when they're not particularly clever--make you sound like Gargamel. Or Iago. Or Dr. No. Cue hand-wringing, cue Halloween music, cue maniacal laughter, pan over the innocent liberals cavorting in their enchanted village ...

akaison

ps it is about spin.

Allen spins
Webb wins

Not Ben

Lo: "Ok, i am exagerating a bit, but the fact is 907 people were polled and they only took 600ish, they can do a lot of picking and choosing to make that, what they want, polls are too subjective for those doing the polling."

Unlikely voters need to be screened out. As interesting as their opinions may be, if they won't act on them on Election Day, they shouldn't be included in the sample.

Here is a good laugh to start the day

http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5587

Doug

Not Ben- the break works like this with polls, and you are right: The call register voters; a first question they ask is "are you a likely voter" then they go on and only count the likely voters. That's simple, but basically how it works.

Doug

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html

They've posted the new polls. Note that 4.6 still list as undecided. Do they go 2 to 1 Webb? Do they split? Are they in the closet not willing to tell anyone they want to vote for UVA's interception king? Impossible to say, but I'm going to speculate they are writing in Not Larry Sabato!

Doug

For those interested in human numbers outside of polls, but greatly effected by these polls:

http://www.intrade.com/partners.jsp?ZID=7152&AID=1&CID=2&page=trade&selConID=317587

It's amazing how quickly all the water heads to one end of the tub and sloshes all over the floor. Bids on Webb 93, Allen 1. Wow. It's as if Allen stepped on his own crank with golf cleets and everyone saw...

oh yeah, he did.. and so did his whole staff.

J-P

Pubilus, T, Lo Scrivano,

Bunker Syndrome! Bunker Syndrome! Bunker Syndrome! Bunker Syndrome!

Let me explain:

All the surviving Nazis hold up in Hitler's bunker were convinced that Hitler had some counter attack up his sleeve that was going to crush the Russian's who where pushing into Berlin. Hitler thought this too, and kept ordering attacks to phantom divisions that had been long since destroyed. Of course as things got worse and worse it was all the Jews fault . . . kind of like how you guys blame the liberals and the media.

Bunker Syndrome

This from RCP yesterday before the CNN and Zogby polls confirmed Rasmussen


If the direction of this poll, not necessarily the magnitude of the move, but the direction is confirmed by other major polling -- George Allen is in big, big trouble. This race had already crept up to #7 on RCP's most vulnerable Senate seats and Allen had real risks heading into election day just by his inability to shake off Webb when he was leading in the RCP Average. Now with Webb moving out to a lead in the latest RCP Average, the Allen campaign better hope this poll is a weekend outlier.

phriendlyjaime

Jane and Lo-

If the polls were reversed, you would be screaming with glee over here.

What desperate measure can Allen pull in order to help himself in the next 6 days?

Attacking Webb has proven to be worthless (3 horny women BHAWAWAWAWWA) and is now hurting him (novel gate). Can Allen go positive ( Warner did not help him)? Who is going to stand up and praise Allen at this point?

Can Allen admit to using racial slurs at this point? Clearly if he admits "MAcaca" is a racial slur he is throwing his Tunisian mother under the bus.

J-P

Bunker Syndrome.

Its the liberals fault! No, No, its the media!

not gretchen bulova

Lo, you are an idiot to read the polls results the way you are.

Allen does better among less likely voters, while Webb does best among the likeliest voters, who is that a good thing for Allen?

UVA08

OK, I'm sorry but am I reading the Cook/RT Strategies Poll correctly?? Does it really say 61% of the most likely voters will vote Democratic versus 35% who will vote Republican?? The lead among likely voters is 59-36.

UVA08

This is a generic ballot question BTW

Doug

UVA08- links!? There are so many polls I can't keep up :)

NLS - I call you out when I disagree and I must let you know when I think you hit the nail on the head. Which of course means on this point we completely agree. You wrote this and you are right:

"In many ways the campaign of Jim Webb has been a disaster. Sometimes, that just doesn't matter. In this enviornment, and against George Allen's constant mistakes, we are now ready to project Jim Webb as the favorite going into election day."

Josh

Ben, you are nothing but a joke and a partisan hack. I can't wait until election day and prove what a joke you are....

Doug

Great- now they sound like football fans who get beat- well, your team didn't beat us, we lost.

Ghost of Henry Howell

We are on the verge of a great victory for the people of Virginia. For the first time in generations, we will have a U.S. Senator that earned his position without kissing the ass of the establishment or special interests.

UVA08

Josh... Why is he a partisan hack? The last poll to have either person over 50% (Allen has reached 50 but hasn't made it over) was back in June. I can't remember the last time someones lead was outside the MOE (probably around July/August). Like I said if you all want to make criticisms please do it with some class and dignity. Explain why Ben is wrong to assume that it leans Democratic with facts and evidence, because right now (without any premises to back up your argument) the only partisan hack on here appears to be you.

Jim Webbs campaign has been nothing short of brilliant. Webb handled the Macaca/Jewish issue with class and style.

Closing a 16 point gap with an 8 million dollar disadvantage in a republican state agaist a career politician is something special.

Things like that just don't happen everyday.

Doug

Right on 8:23. But common talk is the Webb campaign can't do anything right, can't raise money, can't close the polls, can't stay on message...

wait, common talk may be... wrong? Have the terrorists won!?

akaison

I happen to disagree with the analysis that Webb's campaign has been a disaster. it started off slow, but it has slowly built where it counts. The fact is that the money raised in the last few months has been nothing short of spectacular, Webb( as evidenced by his speech this weekend) has slowly become a real candidate rather than a leader who is in need of campaigning skills, and the messaging has been getting better and better. If you dont believe that you need look no further than their response to the book incident. It was nothing short of brilliant with hints of ju jitsu when he used the smear to build on his own record of sucess. That being said- its true, a lot of things contributed to surgence, but that's true of every Democrat this year, and frankly true of any race yo uwill ever see. If people are content with leadership they normally dont change, that was true with the Republican wave in 1994, and why should it be any different now?>

lindab

check this out from the virginia pilot.
a great editorial.

http://content.hamptonroads.com/story.cfm?story=113503&ran=204976

Publius

J-P:
No bunker syndrome here, at least in the way you describe it. I am not looking to Allen. It is going to be up the grassroots people to get this done for him. In that sense it is war in the trenches and conservatives will bunker down and make a stand.

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