Not Larry Sabato

51st District

GOP Hokie reports Michele McQuigg is not running for re-election.  This has been rumored for a while, but now it seems to be official. This is a very competitive seat, and we are rating it a "Toss Up" as an open seat.

New Virginia House Outlook:

---------------SAFE     LIK    LEAN     TU     LEAN   LIK   SAFE
Western---------12-------6-------2-------0--------2--------3------2
Northern----------2-------3-------3-------2--------3---------3-----10
H. Roads----------5-------4-------3-------0--------2---------0------7
Richmond---------5--------4-------1------0--------0----------0------4
Other--------------6--------1-------1------0--------1----------1-------2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------30-------18------10-----2-------- 8---------7-------25

What a bunch of shit!!!!!!!!!

Via RK I see Chairman Gerry Connolly is having a party he is billing as the
"Webb Thank You Party"

EXCUSE ME?

The Democratic Chairman who wouldn't lift a finger for Jim Webb?

The Chairman who had his organizers defeat someone in a May party election because she was supporting Jim Webb???

The Chairman who said: "He [Harris Miller] is the only Democrat who can beat George Allen." 

The Chairman who trashed Jim Webb for not calling him fast enough????  "Last time I checked, I was the top Democrat representing the largest jurisdiction in Virginia. Gee, maybe he ought to call."

.
HELL NO.

A look back at Prince William

Prince William County has been the big buzz of statewide politics recently.  Is it turning blue, or purple and how will that impact statewide elections? 

With the resignation of Sean Connaughton as Chairman of the Board of Supervisors, 2006 was a great time to find out what is going on in Prince William.

Early rumors put Corey Stewart in a GOP nomination battle with one of the three Connaughton allies on the board, Marty Nohe, Wally Covington or Maureen Caddigan.  After some movement for position, both Nohe and Covington stepped aside for Caddigan who waited for a couple of weeks, then dropped out and left them no time to run.  At that time, all the Connaughton forces could get was John Gray a Republican turned Democrat turned Republican who was crushed by Stewart in the convention.

Meanwhile, Democrats have no bench in Prince William, so they turned to Sharon Pandak a former County Attorney who had never run a campaign before.   It showed.  The final results here:

Corey Stewart  44,806 (53.5%)
Sharon Pandak 39,010 (46.5%)

Even more impressive when you see how Jim Webb did against an incumbent George Allen in this county.

Jim Webb     44,503 (51.2%)
George Allen 42,409 (48.8%)

Stewart ran ahead of Allen in all seven of Prince William's magisterial districts.  But the numbers of where he did best versus Allen are not totally what you might expect.

STEWART VS. ALLEN

Occoquan- Allen 46.1%- Stewart 55.0%- STEWART 8.9% AHEAD OF ALLEN

Occoquan district is where Stewart ran the furthest in front of Allen, which was expected since this was Stewart's home magisterial district.  However, it is worth noting that many Connuaghton backers declared Stewart DOA when he endorsed Bolling- and Connaughton ran strongest in this district in the primary.  It appears that was all smoke, as the voters rallied to Stewart this year once again when his name was on the ballot.

Woodbridge-  Allen 39.0%- Stewart 46.3%- STEWART 7.3% AHEAD OF ALLEN

Woodbridge district was where Stewart ran the best outside of Occoquan district.  This is the district represented by Hilda Barg, and the base of the Delegate district represented by Jeff Frederick.  Jeff has shown an organization in both of his elections that allows him to run ahead of the top of the GOP ticket here, and he was a strong backer of Stewart.  It appears he was able to give that edge over to Corey here, as 7.3% is a huge crossover in an open seat race.  Meanwhile, Hilda shows once again that the only reason she wins here is partisan advantage, not local popularity.

Dumfries-  Allen 44.9%- Stewart 50.8%- STEWART 5.9% AHEAD OF ALLEN

Dumfries is the other district that is mainly represented by Jeff Frederick, while being represented on the board by Maureen Caddigan.  I never saw Maureen's name show up as endorsing Stewart, yet he ran better in her district than he did county-wide.  Maureen was also quietly helping Hilda Barg in last year's Delegate race, so between those two elections I think we can surmise the voters of Dumfries have had it with Caddigan and her caddy politics. 

Gainesville- Allen 54.5%- Stewart 58.8%- STEWART 4.3% AHEAD OF ALLEN

This district is represented by John Stirrup, Stewart's strongest ally on the board.  He did better here than any district other than his own, and the ones where he had the Frederick organization working for him.

Neabsco- Allen 39.1%- Stewart 43.2%- STEWART 4.1% AHEAD OF ALLEN

This district is represented by John Jenkins on the board and was one of Pandak's better places of support.  Still Stewart ran almost four points above Allen.  This is also anchor of Scott Lingamfelter's Prince William portion of his district, perhaps showing that his district is becoming more and more Democratic and Scott is quickly becoming vulnerable here.

Brentsville- Allen 55.9%- Stewart 59.8%- STEWART 3.9% AHEAD OF ALLEN

Brentsville is the quickly growing district of Wally Covington, a close Connaughton ally on the board.  His support of Stewart was always a little cold, and voters in his district seemed to notice, as this was Stewart's 2nd worst area for crossover. 

Coles- Allen 48.8%- Stewart 51.1%- STEWART 2.3% AHEAD OF ALLEN

Coles is the home of Marty Nohe, another key Connaughton ally on the Board.  Clearly Marty's cool reaction to Corey was noticed here as Coles was the worst area for Stewart crossover.  That voters cared that Marty wasn't a Stewart fan probably bodes well for his re-election this year.  Compared to Caddigan, Marty comes out of this election looking pretty good.

The press has reported this election was a referendum on growth.  Yet the two districts with explosive and obscene growth, Brentsville and Gainesville both saw Stewart win crossover that was middle of the pack compared to slower growing districts. 

Instead it looks to me like this was an election more fought on local politics and personalities and one that Stewart navigated a lot better than Pandak.

19th Senate District

Incumbent:  Charles Hawkins

Recent Results in Senate District

George Bush 46,348 (61.2%)------------------Jerry Kilgore 26,730 (55.3%)
John Kerry   29,359 (38.8%)-------------------Tim Kaine     21,645 (44.7%)

George Allen 34,056 (61.2%)------------------Yes on Marriage 40,990 (75.3%)
Jim Webb     21,624 (38.8%)-------------------No on Marriage  13,426 (24.7%)

The 19th Senate District is a fairly simple district that takes in Southside counties from the border of Roanoke out east.  While Danville is trending Democratic, the district is drawn carefully and no statewide Democrats have won here in a long time.

In the Presidential Election George W. Bush won this district with ease. Bush lost Danville City which he won in 2000, but still cruised to a 61-39 victory here district-wide.

Jerry Kilgore got 55% here, which was a good margin for him.  In the Governor's race, 4,000 of Kilgore's 5,000 vote margin came out of Pittsylvania County.

Jim Webb got an almost identical vote total to Tim Kaine in this district (21,645-21,624).  But George Allen crushed the number for Jerry Kilgore (34,056-26,730).  This ran Allen's percentage back to 61.2%, one of the few districts in Virginia where Allen got the same or better percentage than Bush in 2004.

The Marriage Amendment did well here, in fact the "Yes" vote was the most popular thing on the statewide ballot here recently, receiving 75.3%, or 14% more than President Bush or George Allen got here.  The marriage amendment won every locality here by over a 2-1 margin.  

Looking forward to 2007, I have this district rated as "Safe Republican". Not only is there a big GOP margin here, but it is spread out between Franklin, Campbell and Pittsylvania counties.  However, one Democrat could make this district very competitive, former Delegate Whitt Clement could be a force if he came back in an open seat race.  I don't see any other Democrat that could defeat a Republican here if Hawkins retires as expected.

Coming next:  Newman, Ruff, Deeds, Hanger, Obenshain, Lucas, Quayle, Blevins, Stolle, Wagner, Rerras, Miller, Williams, Locke, Norment, Watkins, Marsh, Martin, Lambert, Stosch, McDougle, Houck, Chichester, Potts, Herring, Colgan, O'Brien, Puller, Cuccinelli, Howell, Devolites-Davis, Saslaw, Ticer, Whipple.

Previously Covered (click to link):  Wampler, Puckett, Reynolds, Edwards, Bell 

2007

A few posts on 2007:

Eileen takes a close look at the 6th Senate District, currently held by Nick Rerras.  This is demographically, the most vulnerable GOP Senate seat outside of Northern Virginia.
(Outlook:  Leans Republican)

Vivian Paige has information on the challenger to Paula Miller.
(Outlook:  Leans Democratic)

I'm Not Emerill has the scoop on the challenger to Roscoe Reynolds.  This is one of three Bush/Kilgore/Bolling/McDonnell/Allen/Yes Senate seats the Democrats currently control.  Certainly worth watching.
(Outlook:  Leans Democratic)

Also, more information on why tomorrow in our look back at Prince William County this year, but Jeff Frederick's organization continues to impress.  He has a Kerry/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds/Webb district, but he continues to gain traction at home.
(Old Outlook:  Toss Up
New Outlook:  Slight-Lean Republican)

New Virginia House Outlook:

---------------SAFE     LIK    LEAN     TU     LEAN   LIK   SAFE
Western---------12-------6-------2-------0--------2--------3------2
Northern----------2-------3-------4-------1--------3---------3-----10
H. Roads----------5-------4-------3-------0--------2---------0------7
Richmond---------5--------4-------1------0--------0----------0------4
Other--------------6--------1-------1------0--------1----------1-------2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------30-------18------11-----1-------- 8---------7-------25

Background on Webb-Bush

A lot of people think Jim Webb may have overreacted to the President Bush when he asked about his son Jimmy at a recent White House function.

I've gotten a tip on the background to this confrontation, and it appears that Webb may have under reacted.

As President Bush is well aware, a couple of weeks before this dinner the tank riding next to Jimmy's in Iraq was under fire and three marines died.

My sources are telling me that the way President Bush approached Webb with his tone, it appeared he was asking the question of how Jimmy was doing in a mocking manner, while he was certainly aware of the tragedy that had hit his unit a few weeks earlier.

Webb has every right to be livid as the Commander in Chief should not be talking about service members in Iraq in a condescending manner like that. I hope everyone can understand what Webb is going through as a parent with death striking Jimmy's unit that closely, and President Bush should have been a lot more sympathetic to Jim's feelings as a parent.

And Jim, thanks for showing the restraint not to knock Bush out when he did that.

Gilmore for President?

Column by Not Gretchen Bulova:

Former Governor Jim Gilmore told ABC news he is contemplating running for President in 2008, along with Warner's Senate seat should he retire, and for Governor in 2009.  He is leaving the door open for all possibilities.

Gilmore, out of the spotlight for years, wants to run for President?  Come on.  Is Chuck Robb thinking about running too?   

Amazing Senator

From the Hill, via West of Shockoe:

"President Bush has pledged to work with the new Democratic majorities in Congress, but he has already gotten off on the wrong foot with Jim Webb, whose surprise victory over Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) tipped the Senate to the Democrats.

Webb, a decorated former Marine officer, hammered Allen and Bush over the unpopular war in Iraq while wearing his son’s old combat boots on the campaign trail. It seems the president may have some lingering resentment.

At a private reception held at the White House with newly elected lawmakers shortly after the election, Bush asked Webb how his son, a Marine lance corporal serving in Iraq, was doing.

Webb responded that he really wanted to see his son brought back home, said a person who heard about the exchange from Webb.

“I didn’t ask you that, I asked how he’s doing,” Bush retorted, according to the source.

Webb confessed that he was so angered by this that he was tempted to slug the commander-in-chief, reported the source, but of course didn’t. It’s safe to say, however, that Bush and Webb won’t be taking any overseas trips together anytime soon.

“Jim did have a conversation with Bush at that dinner,” said Webb’s spokeswoman Kristian Denny Todd. “Basically, he asked about Jim’s son, Jim expressed the fact that he wanted to have him home.” Todd did not want to escalate matters by commenting on Bush’s response, saying, “It was a private conversation.”

A White House spokeswoman declined to give Bush’s version of the conversation."

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!   

I <3 JIM WEBB!!!!

UPDATE:  FROM THE WAPO:

At a recent White House reception for freshmen members of Congress, Virginia's newest senator tried to avoid President Bush. Democrat James Webb declined to stand in a presidential receiving line or to have his picture taken with the man he had often criticized on the stump this fall. But it wasn't long before Bush found him.

"How's your boy?" Bush asked, referring to Webb's son, a Marine serving in Iraq.

"I'd like to get them out of Iraq, Mr. President," Webb responded, echoing a campaign theme.

"That's not what I asked you," Bush said. "How's your boy?"

"That's between me and my boy, Mr. President," Webb said coldly, ending the conversation on the State Floor of the East Wing of the White House.

Meanwhile Bearing Drift sees the same conversation and labels it "Amazing President".

Congratulations Paul Reagan!

Paul Reagan is Jim Webb's new Chief of Staff!

UPDATE: Reactions are coming in quickly, and this decision is drawing bipartisan accolades.  Congratulations Paul!

37th Senate

Janet Oleszek seems to be creating a lot of buzz in the blog world about her challenge to Ken Cuccinelli.

Raising Kaine has a live chat coming up with Janet tomorrow, so go ask her any questions you have.

750 Volts and Anonymous is a Woman, both residents of the district have endorsed her candidacy.

Goodbye Jim doesn't seem to be much of an Oleszek fan (although since Cuccinelli doesn't have any precincts in the 8th, I am pretty sure they are not in the district).

I think this race has already established itself as the #2 Senate race in Virginia behind Davis-Petersen.  I'm going to see if the candidates are interested in making a joint appearance here on NLS later in the campaign.