19th Senate District

Incumbent:  Charles Hawkins

Recent Results in Senate District

George Bush 46,348 (61.2%)------------------Jerry Kilgore 26,730 (55.3%)
John Kerry   29,359 (38.8%)-------------------Tim Kaine     21,645 (44.7%)

George Allen 34,056 (61.2%)------------------Yes on Marriage 40,990 (75.3%)
Jim Webb     21,624 (38.8%)-------------------No on Marriage  13,426 (24.7%)

The 19th Senate District is a fairly simple district that takes in Southside counties from the border of Roanoke out east.  While Danville is trending Democratic, the district is drawn carefully and no statewide Democrats have won here in a long time.

In the Presidential Election George W. Bush won this district with ease. Bush lost Danville City which he won in 2000, but still cruised to a 61-39 victory here district-wide.

Jerry Kilgore got 55% here, which was a good margin for him.  In the Governor's race, 4,000 of Kilgore's 5,000 vote margin came out of Pittsylvania County.

Jim Webb got an almost identical vote total to Tim Kaine in this district (21,645-21,624).  But George Allen crushed the number for Jerry Kilgore (34,056-26,730).  This ran Allen's percentage back to 61.2%, one of the few districts in Virginia where Allen got the same or better percentage than Bush in 2004.

The Marriage Amendment did well here, in fact the "Yes" vote was the most popular thing on the statewide ballot here recently, receiving 75.3%, or 14% more than President Bush or George Allen got here.  The marriage amendment won every locality here by over a 2-1 margin.  

Looking forward to 2007, I have this district rated as "Safe Republican". Not only is there a big GOP margin here, but it is spread out between Franklin, Campbell and Pittsylvania counties.  However, one Democrat could make this district very competitive, former Delegate Whitt Clement could be a force if he came back in an open seat race.  I don't see any other Democrat that could defeat a Republican here if Hawkins retires as expected.

Coming next:  Newman, Ruff, Deeds, Hanger, Obenshain, Lucas, Quayle, Blevins, Stolle, Wagner, Rerras, Miller, Williams, Locke, Norment, Watkins, Marsh, Martin, Lambert, Stosch, McDougle, Houck, Chichester, Potts, Herring, Colgan, O'Brien, Puller, Cuccinelli, Howell, Devolites-Davis, Saslaw, Ticer, Whipple.

Previously Covered (click to link):  Wampler, Puckett, Reynolds, Edwards, Bell 

Comments

[notroberthurt]

Whitt currently lives in Richmond and practices at Hunton & Williams.

[Not Larry Sabato]

and I don't believe there is a residency requirement for any period of time in the district before running.

I should have mentioned in the main post- Robert Hurt is the likely GOP nominee if Hawkins steps down, but I'm not sure if he has it totally locked up yet.

No way Hawkins is stepping down. He will probably keep running for re-election forever. He LIVES for politics and probably wouldn't know what to do w/himself if he wasn't in the General Assembly.

[notroberthurt]

NLS,

Whitt is not going to leave Richmond, per my last conversation with him.

Here's a rumor for this district that's circulating. Some have said that if Robert Hurt is the GOP nominee that Eric Ferguson may challenge him for the Senate rather than run for Delegate against Dudley.

This comes from a group of political BSers in the district, so I don't know how reliable it is. You might want to check with any sources you have that are close to Ferguson.

What about Danny Marshall? He seems more vulnerable in his House seat than does Robert Hurt, so it seems likely the RPV could push for him to run instead (being that the Senate seat contains more rural votes than does his House seat, which centers largely on Danville).
I also wonder if Hurt might have his eyes on bigger things (AG) than just that Senate seat.

[Juliya girl]

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