A look back at the 2nd Congressional District

We called this election a "Tossup" for quite some time, and it turned out to be a pretty good call. 

Final Results:
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Thelma Drake 85,862 (51.4%)
Phil Kellam 81,124 (48.6%)

The 2nd District is made up of five localities, and most of the attention was cast on the biggest two. Virginia Beach (71% of electorate) which has a strong GOP lean and recent GOP trend in federal elections, and was also the home base of Democratic challenger Phil Kellam was the big prize.  Parts of Norfolk City (13% of electorate) are also in the district, and they have a slight Democratic lean, but were the home base of Congresswoman Thelma Drake.

Let's start our analysis with the other three localities that did not get as much attention during the campaign, but make up 16% of the electorate combined.

Accomack County
Allen 4,726- Webb 4,333- Allen wins by 393
Drake 4,796- Kellam 4,369- Drake wins by 427

As you can see, the crossover in Accomack was virtually nothing.

Northampton County
Allen 1,860- Webb 2,302- Webb by 442
Drake 1,834- Kellam 2,323- Kellam by 489

Once again, the crossover here is almost nothing.  Kellam wins Webb voters, Drake wins Allen voters.

Hampton City
Allen 7,369- Webb 7,450- Webb by 81
Drake 7,307- Kellam 7,537- Kellam by 230

The precincts from Hampton City included in the 2nd District are obviously not the strongest Democratic ones, but they were good enough for narrow wins by Kellam and Webb.  Kellam's 149 vote better margin than Jim Webb here out of about 15,000 voters accounts for a 1% crossover, still am absolutely tiny rate.  Even if you figure both sides had a 2% crossover of Allen/Kellam and Webb/Drake voters that canceled each other out before that 1%, then 95% of voters still voted straight ticket in Hampton.

That leaves us the two big players we discussed at the start, Virginia Beach City and Norfolk City.

Norfolk City
Allen 9,980- Webb 11,106- Webb by 1,126
Drake 10,416- Kellam 10,657- Kellam by 241

This is where we see the first significant crossover of this campaign.  In Thelma Drake's Norfolk City she reduced Kellam's Democratic margin 885 votes from Jim Webb's victory.  Out of just over 21,000 votes cast that equals a crossover of 4% Webb/Drake voters in Norfolk.  Thelma was able to back up the pre-election spin that she was still popular in her home city with this crossover. 

When you look at all the localities heading into Virginia Beach which is the largest and made up 71% of all voters, here's where we stood:

Webb lead by 1,256
Kellam lead by 533

Could they hold their second district leads in Virginia Beach, a city Tim Kaine carried for Governor last year?  No, they couldn't, and the main reason why is what we discussed here a few months ago.  Virginia Beach is a federal GOP City, not only has it been Republican-leaning at the federal level for a long time, but it is becoming even more so among new voters.  From 2000 to 2004, 71% of additional voters at the Beach went Republican for President, which is what is pushing the GOP margin so much bigger here.  These are military voters who are basically uninterested in a lot of state politics, so they don't vote in off year elections and that's how Tim Kaine was able to win the Beach, as the politics of the area moderates significantly with lower military turnout.

Virginia Beach City
Allen 62,327- Webb 55,311- Allen by 7,016
Drake 61,509- Kellam 56,238- Drake by 5,271

Kellam was able to win a crossover here of 1,745 votes margin over Jim Webb.  In his home city that represents about a 1.5% crossover, which does not come anywhere close to a respectable amount given the spin about Kellam owning the Beach that we have all been hearing since he announced. 

This election is pretty simple and comes down to this:

Both candidates held huge super-majorities of voters from their Senate candidate.  This played right into Drake's hand given the heavy turnout, and the demographics of voters at the Beach.  Kellam needed to focus on winning crossover Allen voters but it seemed like he never did.  Webb performed well here for a Democrat in a federal election, especially against an incumbent, but if Kellam was counting on him winning the 2nd district and carrying him over he was asking for an awful lot.

With this victory, Thelma Drake is probably a fairly safe bet to return to Congress until the next redistricting or unless this war in Iraq starts to change the party ID of voters in Virginia Beach. She walked right into Kellam's home base and beat him head to head there, and deserved to win because of it.

Comments

[Fairfax]

Thelma Drake worked hard and was the better candidate. Kellam could not stand next to her and handle issues and questions. Drake shows strong appeal amongst Democratic voters in her Norfolk base, and has obviously connected well with the Virginia Beach portions of the district.

Vivian is probably correct.

Kellam bizarrely avoided debates, and he turned down a Mark Warner ad. Had he done either or both, he would most likely have won handily.

As someone that worked on winning the Beach last year for Kaine, I really don't get it. I don't particularly buy your claim about federal Republicans much, mostly because that's not what our anaylsis of the data demonstrated. There are enough Dems and indepedents to win the beach, as long as the candidate hits the right notes. Kellam came very close. Shrug.

[Marine Mom]

I live in Va.Beach and I didn't vote for her,I can't see anything that she has done for this area.I miss Owen Pickett.

[Ghost of Henry Howell]

Drat. Third close loss in 6 years in the 2nd CD. Jody Wagner, David Ashe and Phil Kellam. What's it going to take ...

[Vivian J. Paige]

This race was winnable.

I'm still hearing grumblings about Drake living in Norfolk. Perhaps a Republican primary challenger in 2008?

[Not John S. Mosby]

Good analysis, makes sense. Military families are very transient so local and state elections are less interesting for that very reason - they don't affect national issues that much. If you're from Iowa and in the Navy and living in Tidewater for a few years then gone, you probably give a rat's ass about Virginia laws and whatnot. True of all transplants and transients, it takes a few years to get really involved in a community. If you know you're moving again in a year or three, you probably won't pay much attention at all.

[Not Ben]

Kellam could have won this if he had actually campaigned. If he had put in the leg work of Jody Wagner, he'd be on his way to Congress, and Thelma would be left to pursue opposable thumbs.

[Insider]

Spot on, NLS.

[NotLarrySabato'sLawnboy]

http://www.rsdb.org/
How can we avoid racist remarks unless we know all of them?

[SE VA MWC Alum]

agree with vivian too, although did hear a warner radio ad for kellam near the end

[Marine Mom]

Webb is on CNN with Lou Dobbs right now.

Does anyone else get the feeling that someone in Kellam's campaign was connected to someone Tribbett hates?

[Not Joel Rubin]

Vivian is hearing rumblings about Drake not living in VB? The time for folks to do something about that was November 7, 2006. She won VB by more than 5,000 votes. Enough said. No one. I mean no one can beat Thelma in a GOP primary. Viv, stop making trouble where none exists. Every GOP official that matters loves Thelma and all worked hard to get her re-elected.

[TRS]

Thelma needs to move to Va Beach. They elected her so now the should get her. She lost Norfolk. She lost her own home precinct by 6%. She used to sell houses so she should be able to sell hers quickly.

[Vivian J. Paige]

NJR - I'm not making trouble, just passing along what I've heard from some GOP members over the last few days.

[George Templeton]

If Kellam had actually defined the differences between himself and Rep. Drake, he might be on his way to Congress. Instead he was a shadow counting on a Democratic wave to get him through. He was a lemon for the Democrats because he really should have won and he blew it.

[Jokey]

While I think it is true that Kellam ran a miserable campaign, I think the analysis I have seen discounts the good campaign that Drake ran.

[billvabeach]

Here are some problems I found w/the Kellam campaign: What happened to the Wagner & Ashe volunteer lists? I donated and worked on Election Day on both campaigns and was never contacted.

I called them two weeks prior to election to volunteer and never got a call back.

There were no Kellam workers at my precinct.

There wasn't a Kellam sign at my precinct.

The web site wasn't updated since July.