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Riley, Not O'Reilly

Brentsville- Allen 55.9%- Stewart 59.8%- STEWART 3.9% AHEAD OF ALLEN

Brentsville is the quickly growing district of Wally Covington, a close Connaughton ally on the board. His support of Stewart was always a little cold, and voters in his district seemed to notice, as this was Stewart's 2nd worst area for crossover.

That could be on account that there wasn't much room for crossover with Allen already at 56 percent in that district. The higher Allen's percentile in a district, one would expect Stewart's crossover would be less. Simple logic dictates that.

Not Larry Sabato

If population and turnout were equal there would be very little difference between the percentages in a county this evenly divided.

For example, if candidate x gets 55% in one district, and 45% in another, and other have 10% crossover rates, one district is 5.5% and the other is 4.5%. Since Corey wasn't pulling a 10% crossover anywhere, and the differences ranged from 40%-60% the number you are citing is LESS THAN 1% of the total population in any given district. In statistics that is called "insignifigant".

What you are talking about could apply in a place like Richmond where precincts range from 30%-90%, but not in a place like Prince William where both parties get at least 40%ish in every district.

George Templeton

It sounds like you are saying that a conservative Republican can still win, but they need to have a solid organization and some appeal to locals. It sounds like you can't just show up and be conservative and win. Which might have been how it used to be in Prince William?

Didn't the Virginia Democratic Party invest a considerable amount of resources into Pandak's campaign? As you point out, Webb won the County so was Pandak's identification as the growth candidate the primary reason for her loss or were there some strategic and/or operational problems with her campaign?


So in your opinion what is the answer to your question? Is it turning Blue, Purple, or have the Republicans just had a few bad years?

Hey Ben,

Any chance we could get the Marriage Amendment numbers for those districts?


The "yes" vote was quite strong in Prince William. Actually a higher percentage of PWC residents voted for the amendment than residents of Chesterfield county. Doesn't exactly fit into this NOVA v. ROVA culture war that too many people keep talking about.

You should also include the Tom Davis numbers in those areas.

Not Larry Sabato

UVA 08,

Yes, yes and yes.


One more question Ben or anyone else.... What explains the relatively low turn out in Prince William this past election?


Historically voter turnout is low in PWC, especially during midterm elections. Turnout was actually up somewhat for this election versus past elections.


The luck of the Irish

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