Another Interesting Theory

Guest Column by Not Al Groh

The Bolling-Allen Connection

(Note from NLS:  I agree the Bolling-Byrne race is remarkably similar to the Allen-Webb race.  It's interesting to see where Webb took Byrne's one point loss, and turned it into a 0.4% victory.  Voter turnout growth shows this is the Democratic vs. Republican coalitions of the future...)

When comparing our recent Senate election results and trying to find trends, probably the best race to compare it to was the 2005 LG race between Bill Bolling and Leslie Byrne. This is largely because they were both close elections as well as the similarities in candidate strengths. It seemed to me this would be a good starting point to work from as well as the best race to try and garner a future electoral strategy from.

The Congressional District results break down like this:

1^st CD: Bolling +23,966, Allen +23,557, Change: +409
2^nd CD: Bolling +12,082, Allen +5,877, Change: +6,205
3^rd CD: Byrne +51,989, Webb +62,091, Change: +10,102
4^th CD: Bolling +16,460, Allen +20,429, Change: +3,969
5^th CD: Bolling +9,596, Allen +18,419, Change: +8,823
6^th CD: Bolling +33,913, Allen +39,011, Change: +5,098
7^th CD: Bolling +37,749, Allen +37,958, Change: +209
8^th CD: Byrne +66,170, Webb +85,725, Change: +19,555
9^th CD: Bolling +23,036, Allen +20,931, Change: +2,105
10^th CD: Bolling +1,322, Webb +2,827, Change: +4,149
11^th CD: Byrne +17,606, Webb +24,868, Change: +7,262

As we know, Bolling won the 2005 race by 22,359; so all Allen had to do was hold Bolling’s margins and he would win.

As we look around the map, almost every big shift in margins is easily explained. The 1^st and 7^th had very small changes due to Henrico offsetting Allen gains in Chesterfield and Hanover Counties in the 7^th and the 1^st having no areas that were greatly affected by changes from 2005.

The biggest change was in the 8^th CD, where Jim Webb almost completely erased Bolling’s statewide margin of victory. This was largely due to a campaign focus on the 8^th to turn out voters, which was very successful. Webb’s campaign was able to push the 8^th’s share of statewide votes from the 8.76% in 2005 to 9.28% in 2006. For an area that votes 70%+ democratic; that’s always going to be a good thing. The % was almost the same, as both Allen and Bolling pulled around 30% of the vote here. Almost all the extra Webb votes were a result of turnout.

Another big change was the 3^rd CD. The margin here, coupled with the 8^th basically delivered the election to Webb. Obviously, being the majority-minority congressional district; this was an area Webb could try and exploit some of Allen’s misstatements. The change in margin here was all about % change as Allen finished a full percentage point behind Bolling. This area could have been an even bigger headache for Allen had Webb been able to push turnout higher; but this CD has typically always had lower turnout than the rest of the state. This is in stark contrast to past elections, when Allen outperformed GOPs in the African-American community.

Webb’s gains in the 10^th and 11^th CDs were mostly as a result of a huge turnout increase in Fairfax County.  In 2005, Fairfax County had turnout of 44.77% compared to 44.96% statewide. In 2006, countywide turnout rose to 54.72% vs. 52.04% statewide. Webb actually pulled a lower % in Fairfax but got a much higher vote win due to huge disparity in turnout (Byrne got 59.26% and won by 51k, Webb got 58.9% and won by 65k). PWC played a small role in the 11th’s margin increase; but Fairfax still remained the key in both of these areas.

Webb also outperformed Byrne in the 2^nd CD for two major reasons. One, being a major area for military voters; Webb was probably able to make inroads in that community that very few other Dems will ever be able to do. Second, a strong Kellam candidacy probably helped pull some votes Webb’s way as well.

The last area Webb outperformed was in the “Fightin’ Ninth”. This was totally due to Webb’s strength in his home of Scott County and the surrounding area. Webb cut Bolling’s margin by 3481 votes in his home area, and then lost ground by 1376 in the rest of the district. We saw this same type of thing happen to Jerry Kilgore in 2005, where his SWVa roots only benefited him in the immediate area of his home. Even so, this small increase was crucial to a victory when the MOV was so small statewide.

Allen’s 2 strongest gains came in the 5^th and 6^th CDs. This is not surprising at all due to him having superior staff and advertising advantages here as well as long-time roots. It is unclear whether Webb would have been able to stem this loss if he had more resources to devote to this area of the state; but the Marriage Amendment may have also played a role; especially in the Lynchburg suburbs or Bedford and Campbell Counties.

The last area of major change was in the 4^th CD. Here we saw Allen outperform Bolling in Chesterfield County.  The historically GOP areas of Richmond metro strongly were expected to support Allen, and they did.

These results create quite a conundrum for trend seekers. Webb largely gained votes by taking advantage of “racially insensitive” comments by Allen as well as his military credentials and driving NOVA turnout. Allen largely gained votes by going to the GOP faithful in the strongholds and firing up the base.

Going forward; the Dems cannot count on a “Macaca” comment from every GOP statewide office seeker in the future, nor can they expect to consistently get candidates who have the same military credentials as Webb. Conversely, the GOP cannot count on huge margins in rural Virginia every time when George Allen has been campaigning for over 10 years raising his name ID there, nor can they count on their challenger being short on cash and unable to hire staff and advertise in rural Virginia.

It seems the only message we can take from this is a Democratic strategy should be to focus on turning out the 8^th CD, and the GOP strategy should try and counter that by driving turnout in the GOP heavy areas. At the end of the day, this race tells us what we already knew; that the GOP has to turn the tide of weakening in Fairfax County and greater NOVA to stay competitive going forward.

To a lesser extent, it also proves NOVA isn’t big enough yet to single-handedly control state politics. Only campaigning in NOVA will not deliver a victory unless you have other benefits going for you (a mistake by your opponent, ability to make inroads in a group of voters, bad GOP environment, etc). Even with all the other factors, had Allen been able to stay even with Bolling in the 3^rd CD; he would still be a Senator.

Comments

[bye bye george]

Interesting. However, please remember that Richmond and Henrico are divided between the 7th and 3rd CDs

The last area Webb outperformed was in the “Fightin’ Ninth”. This was totally due to Webb’s strength in his home of Scott County and the surrounding area.

You may want to look again at the results in the Ninth and where the Webb votes really came from.

[Mr. Ugly]

You are kidding, right?

"...as well as the similarities in candidate strengths."

A comparison of Byrne to Webb is apples to, well, crab apples. A lot of folks will tell you that Bolling did not win that election; Byrne lost it. Meaning of course that had just about any of other primary candidates won, we would have a D as Lt Gov.

Here! Here! Mr. Ugly!
Jim Webb and Leslie Byrne are perceived as having very little common...ok, the both are married to folks who sit when they pee, but other than that, your whole thesis is negated by the first statement, "...as well as the similarities in candidate strengths."

[phriendlyjaime]

A. How the hell do you know how Jim Webb pees, and B. WTF kind of comment is that anyway?

Blech.

How about a Deeds-Allen connection?

[K]

The only thing you've proved is that spreadsheets and statistical software can be misused by dummies.

Or, put another way: Just because you can add or subtract doesn't mean your results have any value.

[Not Al Groh]

Mr Ugly, these 2 races are very similar in where each of the candidates would do the best.
To compare; Kaine did much better in Richmond metro than any other Dem and Deeds did better in rural Virginia than most other Dems.

Byrne and Webb had the same general electoral strategy. Win NOVA big to offset losses downstate. Simple as that.

[Vivian J. Paige]

One thing that may have happened in the 2nd CD is that it was home to Bob McDonnell. That may have given Bolling an edge.

[LAS]

NAG, there's no doubt that the Webb people were hoping for big NOVA numbers, but there were also hoping to peel off a lot of traditional GOP voters throughout the state, for example, the military in the Tidewater area. Actually, I think they may have been planning/hoping on winning some of these areas.

Some people here were saying (before the election) that the religious African Americans who were coming out to vote for the Amendment were also going to vote for Allen. That proved a false hope, as these voters were able to separate the two.

BTW, I think it was more than just a reaction to Allen's "race problem." African Americans are as capable as the next group of expressing dissatisfaction with the Bush administration and the goings-on with his cronies. And, of course, they have, as a group, always had the good sense to strongly oppose Bush's War.

[Newport News Dem]

I could only widh for an ironic twist that the marriage amendment lead to the 3rd CD gain. Many socially conservative voters in the 3rd might not have shown up to vote since Bobby was unopposed except to vote yea on the amendment.

Just wonderin'

[Not Al Groh]

NND, thats possible but doubtful since the turnout was about average.
Had the turnout in the 3rd been higher than usual you could certainly make that arguement, and I am sure the amendment had some effect either way.

Although there are some similarities between Bolling and Allen (career politicians with little else of substance in their backgrounds - although Allen is way ahead of Bolling by virtue of the simple fact that he played college football), Allen is a far more substantial candidate. I've never felt you can tell much about how horrible a candidate Bolling was because the Democrats obscured the issue by running a very extreme candidate in Leslie Byrne. In 2005, Chap! or Puckett would have cleaned up against Bolling. Both parties elected to run their weakest candidate for LG and it was a very close race.

Whatever Allen's limitations, he had served a term as both governor and senator and had a record to take to the voters. The 9,000 vote margin against Webb is startlingly close, particularly given tremendous gap in substantive life experience that favors Webb on paper. Allen, having not done much other than run for office in Virginia's hothouse, non-meritocratic, GOP political system, virtually beat a combat-decorated Marine, who happened to be an award-winning author and former Secretary of the Navy. Allen did this despite Macacca and despite a second-grade level campaign effort on the part of his team (Sheesh - imagine making literary criticism an element of your campaign) It shows that it still helps to be a Republican in Virginia. If the party affiliations had been reversed, Webb would have won by 900,000 votes.